Strikeforce ‘Nashville’ Analysis: The Main Card

Strikeforce’s event Saturday in Nashville had three title fights
featuring five fighters among the top 10 in their individual weight
classes.

The promotion’s second event on CBS had its moments -- the opening
round of Mousasi vs. Lawal, the closing seconds of Melendez’s title
defense, Henderson’s knockdown of Shields and, regretfully, the
“Nashville brawl” -- but there were also long segments of boredom,
especially in the lopsided lightweight title fight.

From a business perspective, the result of the main event
represents a core-melt accident for CEO Scott Coker. Dan
Henderson, Strikeforce’s expensive new acquisition, lost a
clear-cut decision to champion Jake Shields,
who has completed his three-fight deal with Strikeforce and is now
a free agent. The Cesar
Gracie black belt, who is riding a very impressive 14-fight win
streak, now has the option to walk away from Strikeforce while
holding its belt or use his leverage to re-sign at significantly
improved financial conditions.

Our look at the event’s main card breaks down the action in the
three title fights as well as the middleweight scrap between
Jason
“Mayhem” Miller and Tim Stout and
predicts the individual future for the eight participants.

What happened: Eccentric
ground-fighting specialist Miller had little trouble putting away
journeyman Tim Stout. After a brief exchange standing up, “Mayhem”
moved the action to the ground. Inside Stout’s guard, he landed a
couple of unusually hard shots that prompted Stout to roll to his
stomach. Miller smelled and drew blood and ultimately finished the
fight with more punches from the gut-wrench position.

Forecast for Miller: The easy win was
originally supposed to set up a rematch with former Icon Sport and
EliteXC middleweight champion Robbie
Lawler, whom “Mayhem” previously defeated via arm-triangle
choke in their September 2006 encounter in Hawaii. Miller’s main
event postfight antics may make those plans doubtful, though.
Depending on how upset CBS and Strikeforce brass were with the
incident, Miller could be suspended, released from the promotion or
put into a high-interest grudge match with Nick Diaz.

Forecast for Stout: The 31-year-old
will likely head back to regional events.

What happened: King Mo’s strong
wrestling base made the difference in his fight with young Armenian
striker Mousasi, exposing the 24-year-old champion’s weaknesses in
the process. Mousasi, who had reeled off 15 consecutive wins and
only gone beyond the first round three times during that spell,
could not get his submission game going off his back. Lawal had
prepared with former ADCC champion Dean Lister
for this title fight, and it showed. While it wasn’t pretty for
large portions of the bout, King Mo proved that he has the heart to
fight through fatigue.

Forecast for Lawal: The promotion has
now put the 205-pound belt on the waist of the colorful King Mo.
This appears to be a state of affairs that could continue for a
while, as Strikeforce does not possess a credible challenger for
the 29-year-old in what is arguably the promotion’s weakest
division at the moment. Coker & Co. could continue the
three-man race between Lawal, Mousasi and Renato
Sobral and grant “Babalu” another crack at the title next.
Further challengers may be drafted from rumored fights between
Roger
Gracie and Kevin
Randleman as well as Rafael
Cavalcante and Antwain
Britt.

Forecast for Mousasi: Mousasi has been
a “Ronin” as far as his training is concerned. In the last couple
of years, he has swayed to and fro between his own group of people
he trains with in Leiden, Holland, Fedor’s place in Stary Oskol,
Russia, and most recently Gokor
Chivichyan’s gym in North Hollywood, Calif. Cutting ties with
M-1 means working with Fedor will be difficult in the future, which
is why Mousasi’s primary concern should be finding an elite camp
that will bring his wrestling and BJJ to the same level as his
excellent hands. Upcoming fights in Strikeforce that make the most
sense for him could come against American wrestlers Dan Henderson
and Matt
Lindland, possibly at a catch-weight of 195 pounds.

What happened: Melendez, whose was
stumbling just two years ago following tough losses to Mitsuhiro
Ishida and Josh
Thomson, has arrived in the top five of his weight class on the
back of a tactically disciplined performance against Japanese ace
Shinya Aoki. “El Nino” completely shut the grappling master’s game
down, stuffing all 18 of his takedown attempts and stifling his
dangerous guard. Aoki worked hard and hung in there, but was
ultimately outclassed and lucky not to be stopped due to Melendez
possibly respecting him too much to fully let loose.

Forecast for Melendez: The rubber match
with Thomson seems inevitable, but beyond that, Strikeforce has
also lined up some other interesting potential challenges for the
28-year-old: namely, former EliteXC lightweight champion K.J.
Noons and former Shooto welterweight titleholder Vitor “Shaolin”
Ribeiro. Strikeforce’s working relationship with Dream could
also produce bouts with Bellator champion Eddie
Alvarez, former Dream lightweight champion Joachim
Hansen and Hero’s middleweight tournament winner Gesias "JZ"
Cavalcante.

Forecast for Aoki: “Tobikan Judan”
tirelessly emphasized how important the Melendez fight was, not
just for himself but for the whole Japanese MMA scene. Now that he
has lost in such a decisive fashion, it will certainly be tough to
rebound for the soon-to-be 27-year-old. But that’s what he’ll have
to do, as his home promotion, Dream, has lined up a defense of his
lightweight title against another powerful wrestler in former
Shooto welterweight champion Tatsuya
Kawajiri, possibly as early as July.

What happened: Henderson came close to
ending things early with a short right hook and a series of
uppercuts that knocked down the champion. Shields hung in there,
however, and after surviving the scary first round, he put his
stamp on the fight using his wrestling and grappling prowess. For
the first time in his illustrious 14-year career, Henderson was not
only taken down but mounted and pounded for four straight rounds.
Behind on the scorecards entering the fourth, Henderson did not use
his world-class wrestling to take down Shields, instead continuing
to look for that one big fight-ending punch.

Forecast for Shields: There are two
scenarios for the 31-year-old Gracie JJ fighter.

2: He signs with the UFC and fights against either Georges
St. Pierre or Anderson
Silva (or both), in a quest to cement his legacy as one of the
greatest fighters of his generation.

Forecast for Henderson: Going into the
fight as a heavy favorite with the bookmakers, as high as 4-1, and
physically much bigger to boot, the defeat to Shields comes
unexpected for the 39-year-old. Has Henderson, who has been
seemingly indestructible despite countless wars in UFC and Pride,
grown old overnight? Only time and the matchups Strikeforce can
arrange for him will tell. Mousasi, Babalu and Shamrock, should
Shields not re-sign, are the most intriguing bouts for him out
there.