2019 looks to be a milestone year for Singapore as far as political issues go. While most attention will naturally be on leadership succession, there are other events worth keeping an eye on as 2018 recedes into the past.

1. Singapore Bicentennial

A slew of events beginning on 28 January will mark the anniversary of Sir Stamford Raffles’ arrival in Singapore in 1819. Already, there has been disagreement over whether Singapore should pay this much heed to its colonial past. Others have asked if the story will be told without glossing over the controversial chapters of Singapore’s history. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has said that the bicentennial will be marked “appropriately”. Perhaps more telling is his remark that “our progress was not a straight line upwards … but ultimately we came through and became an independent nation”. It suggests the message will be of the “look at how far we have come” variety meant to foster national unity.

2. Budget 2019

The annual event is always a closely-watched affair, but next year’s will be even more so. Singaporeans are likely to look to it for the Government’s response to a problem that has been raising temperatures of late – inequality. As technology continues to disrupt the workplace, the issue of jobs also appears likely to be addressed. Finally, will there be more information on when the hike in the Goods and Services Tax to 9 per cent be effected within the previously stipulated timeframe of 2021-2025?

3. Cabinet Reshuffle

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has said that a new Cabinet line-up will be announced after the Budget debate. The reshuffle is expected to confirm that Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat will be Singapore’s next Prime Minister. As important, it will put 4G ministers in key posts, while the older ones may leave the Cabinet to make way for the new. Another question: Will there be two Deputy Prime Minister positions, and if so, who will occupy the second slot (it is almost certain that Mr Heng will take the first)? Speculation centres on whether it will be given to Trade and Industry Minister Chan Chun Sing or Home Affairs Minister K Shanmugam. Another keenly watched issue: What will DPM Tharman Shanmugaratnam’s role in the reshuffled Cabinet be?

4. GE 2019?

With new ministers expected to assume more key roles by the first half of the year, there has been growing speculation that a general election, which must be called by January 2021, will be held towards the end of 2019. Apart from speculation that doing so later will hurt the ruling party – a GST announcement is expected by 2021, for instance – other intriguing signs have popped up. Some 30,000 civil servants have been appointed as election officials, and their training began in July. Another sign is the timeline for the introduction of e-registration for voters and electronic counting machines.

5. Foreign Affairs

As always, external events have the potential to buffet Singapore, and 2019 will have more than its fair share of potential banana skins. Malaysia has taken steps to de-escalate the maritime borders row, and a meeting between the two sides to discuss the issue and the airspace dispute will be held in the second week of January. Campaigning for Indonesia’s April elections is heating up, and while incumbent President Joko Widodo appears likely to win a second term, it is by no means a sure thing. Also looming over Singapore is the prospect of renewed hostilities in the US-China trade war. Both sides have begun a 90-day tariff ceasefire, but the fallout from the trade war has already begun to affect Singapore’s economy, and if an agreement is not reached, the situation could get much worse.