Title: What to expect of hardware metric predictors in NAS. Abstract: Modern Neural Architecture Search (NAS) focuses on finding the best performing architectures in hardware-aware settings; e.g., those with an optimal tradeoff of accuracy and latency. Due to many advantages of prediction models over live measurements, the search process is often guided by estimates of how well each considered network architecture performs on the desired metrics. Typical predic-
tion models range from operation-wise lookup tables over gradient-boosted trees and neural networks, with little known information on how they compare. We evaluate 18 different performance predictors on ten combinations of metrics, devices, network types, and training tasks, and find that MLP models are the most promising. We then simulate and evaluate how the guidance of such prediction models affects the subsequent architecture selection. Due to inaccurate predictions, the selected architectures are generally suboptimal, which we quantify as
an expected reduction in accuracy and hypervolume. We show that simply verifying the predictions of just the selected architectures can lead to substantially improved results. Under a time budget, we find it preferable to use a fast and inaccurate prediction model over accurate but slow live measurements.