We analyze a 15-year time series of North American electric power transmission system blackouts for evidence of self-organized criticality (SOC). The probability distribution functions of various measures of blackout size have a power tail and rescaled range analysis of the time series shows moderate long-time correlations. Moreover, the same analysis applied to a time series from a sandpile model known to be self-organized critical gives results of the same form. Thus, the blackout data seem consistent with SOC. A qualitative explanation of the complex dynamics observed in electric power system blackouts is suggested.
['B.A. Carreras', 'David E. Newman', 'Ian Dobson', 'A. B. Poole']
Evidence for self-organized criticality in a time series of electric power system blackouts