In this paper uncertainty in effort estimates are linked to a project This paper presents a framework for the representation of uncertainty work breakdown structure in an effort to achieve two purposes. Initially, in the estimates for software design projects for use throughout the the method described in this paper can be utilised during the entire project lifecycle. The framework is flexible in order to development of a tender submission for a software project. Typically in accommodate uncertainty in the project and utilises Monte Carlo this circumstance, a project effort estimate will be made using a number simulation to compute the propagation of uncertainty in effort estimates of methods, such as expert opinion or a parametric model. It is possible towards the total project uncertainty and therefore gives a project that some companies will base a bid/no-bid decision on this single manager the means to make informed decisions throughout the project estimate without any deeper analysis of the risks involved. The tool life. The framework also provides a mechanism for accumulating project detailed in this paper, developed in Excel using a freely available addknowledge through the use of a historical database, allowing effort in, SimuiAr (Machain, 2005), allows uncertainty in estimates to be estimates to be informed by, or indeed based upon the outcome of captured and use of Monte-Carlo simulation provides an indication of previous projects. Initial results using simulated data are presented the range of likely outcomes, not just a single estimate. The bid/no-bid and avenues for further work are discussed. decision can therefore be informed by pessimistic, optimistic and realistic estimates. In addition, the analysis of the data allows the areas of
['Andy M. Connor']
Probabilistic estimation of software project duration