Posterior median advances (and associated 95% CIs) in mean/median arrival dates for different bird migration distance classes (a) over time (day per year) and (b) with temperature (days per °C) at the mean latitude of the data set in the Northern Hemisphere (46·1°N), as estimated under our ecological models. Unclassified migrants refer to migrants that were not assigned migration distances in the original studies. Estimates are for migrants that do not rely on forest habitats during breeding and passage; migrants with a predominantly invertebrate diet; habitat and diet specialists; body size of 10 g; arrival data as reported by standardized field studies; and the decade 1980 for year slope estimates. The difference in slope between short- and long-distance migrants as estimated directly from our ecological models (plotted to the right of the grey vertical line) does not overlap zero and is significant. Graphic: Usui, et al., 2016 / Journal of Animal Ecology