incidence of heart failure in 6083 elderly hypertensive patients the second australian national blood pressure study anbp2 aims hypertension is a known risk factor for the development of heart failure hf however few data are available on the magnitude of short and longterm progression from hypertension to hf the present study aims to determine the short and longterm incidence of hf and identify factors associated with onset of hf in elderly hypertensive patientsmethods and results the incidence of hf was measured in 6083 hypertensive patients in the second australian national blood pressure study anbp2 followed for a median of 108years 41years during the trial and 67years during posttrial followup a total of 373 cases of hf were identified over 59 581 personyears of followup py the overall cumulative incidence of hf was 626 per 1000 py 533 per 1000 py during the anbp2 clinical trial and 704 per 1000 py during the posttrial followup hf was 63 higher among men incidence rate ratios irr 163 p001 older age male sex obesity and history of cardiovascular disease independently predicted hf during both the short and longterm followup in addition diabetes and smoking were associated with onset of hf in the shortterm followup and higher systolic blood pressure in the longterm followup median survival following diagnosis with hf was 394years and women 606years had a survival advantage over men 332yearsconclusion heart failure is a frequent longterm outcome in treated elderly hypertensive patients development of hf was predicted by patient characteristics and comorbidities with the effect of some predictors varying over the short and longterm followup