how much does heterosexual commercial sex contribute to indias hiv epidemic through a search we identified five models of indias hiv epidemic all of which articulate the hypothesis that heterosexual commercial sex drives indias hiv epidemic all five models assume more female sex workers fsws than have been mapped counted and more than can be inferred from mens sexual behaviour with best and highest plausible evidencebased estimates 1520 of 300000700000 fsws are hivpositive fsws have 570 client contacts per year clients use condoms with 6075 of fsw contacts and the rate of hiv transmission from fsws to clients is 000110002 per unprotected contact fsws and clients account for 215 of hivinfected adults far less than modelbased estimates of 4468 overestimating the contribution of commercial sex to indias hiv epidemic misleads prevention programmes to ignore other risks and promotes the stigmatizing assumption that hiv infection is a sign of immoral behaviour