new delhi investment bank morgan stanley has cut indias growth forecast to to 76 per cent from 79 per cent for financial year 2023 due to a slowdown in global growth higher commodity prices and risk aversion in global capital marketsadverse terms of trade shock surging oil prices and impact on business confidence from geopolitical tensions weigh on the nearterm outlook as per the brokerage the cut reflects a pronounced economic impact from the russiaukraine conflict that has driven up crude prices pushing retail inflation in india the worlds thirdbiggest oil importer to its highest in 17 monthsthe key channels of impact will likely be higher inflation weaker consumer demand tighter financial conditions the adverse impact on business sentiment and a delay in capex recovery said upasana chachra morgan stanleys chief economist for indiaour global economics team expects global growth to average 29 yoy in 2022 slowing from 62 growth in cy21 against this backdrop we lower our forecasts of indias gdp growth to 76 for f2023from 79 and 67 for f2024 from 7 the note statedwhen it comes to inflation morgan stanley said within asia india would be the economy which will be most exposed to upside risks to inflation because of its higher energy import burden and sustained strength in domestic demandindia meets nearly 80 of its oil needs through imports and rising crude prices push up the countrys trade and current account deficit while also hurting the rupee and fuelling imported inflationmorgan stanley expects support from the governments supplyside response and the reopening vibrancy to help counter the downsidethe governments policy reforms plus expansion of public infrastructure spending alongside an increase in capacity utilization levels should help private capex to recover in 69 months it said morgan stanley is not the first to slash growth projections for india amid rising geopolitical tensionin april the world bank cut its fy23 growth forecast for india to 8 per cent from 87 per cent estimated in january due to tepid recovery in consumption demand and escalating uncertainties due to the russian invasion of ukraine commenting on indias growth forecast in the report the imf said that higher oil prices are expected to weigh on private consumption and investmentbrokerage ubs also lowered indias fy23e real gdp growth forecast to 7 yoy from 77 on the ground the economic recovery remains uneven while the economic indicators for the urban economy seem to be doing reasonably well so far those for the rural economy remain a drag it saidit downgraded indias gdp growth on three factors high global commodity prices largely energy and slower global growth on russiaukraine conflict and chinas covid19 led slowdown in june quarter real income shock from energy price hikes inflationary pressures and the labour markets incomplete recovery resulting in weakness in domestic demand and risk of reallocation of limited fiscal resources away from capex towards higher subsidies food fertilizer etc to shield lowincome households from the price shockthat said the early signs of a recovery