new delhi widespread mask use and datadriven social distancing measures in india may help prevent over 200000 covid19related deaths in india by december 1 according to a modelling study which shows the disease will continue to pose a major public health threat in the countrythe study by the institute for health metrics and evaluation ihme at the university of washington in the us suggests that there is an opportunity to further limit the toll of covid19 in indiait highlights the critical need for people to comply with face mask use social distancing and other covid19 prevention guidelines as advised by the public health authoritiesindias epidemic is far from over as a large proportion of the population is still susceptible ihme director christopher murray said in a statementin fact our modelling shows there is a wide range of potential outcomes depending on the actions that governments and individuals take today tomorrow and into the near future maskwearing and social distancing are crucial to mitigate the spread of the virus murray explainedreacting to the findings of the modelling study gautam menon professor departments of physics and biology ashoka university in haryana said it is certainly true that mask wearing and distancing measures will significantly slow the progress of the disease while protecting vulnerable populationsmy first view is that the ihme model predicts a peak in infections only by early to middecember peak numbers of close to 6 million new infections per day and total deaths of about 500000 in the no intervention scenario menon told ptihowever he noted that these numbers appear inflated compared to other estimates and models which suggest a peak that should happen well before middecembergiven that the estimate of lives saved in the study may be on the excessive side menon notedthe researchers in the ihme study noted that indias response to covid19 has produced some significant successes that highlight the opportunity to limit the pandemics toll in the countrygiving the example of some urban areas including delhi they explained that containment measures which include intensive contact tracing widespread testing maskwearing and social distancing mandates have helped reduce the spread of the virustheir modelling study found that in the bestcase scenario india can expect approximately 291145 total covid19 deaths by december 1 up from 60000 in late augustthis scenario assumes that face mask usage increases to nearuniversal 95 per cent levels and that sixweek statelevel lockdowns are reimposed if the daily death rate exceeds 8 per million in the stateson the other hand if lockdown restrictions continue to ease up and face mask usage remains at current levels india can expect approximately 492380 total deaths by december 1 according to the studyin this scenario the researchers said 13 states would each have over 10000 total covid19 deaths by that time while currently only maharashtra has crossed this thresholdindia is at a tipping point if hospitals in those states are unable to accommodate everyone needing covid19 care the result will be more deaths and greater longterm harm to state