bengaluru while bjp has the best mathematical chance of winning the fourth rajya sabha seat from karnataka congress and jds have an outside chance all three are banking on politics and factors like cross voting while negotiations are also still on to get a rival candidate to withdrawthe 224 members of the legislative assembly form the electoral college which will vote to elect four members to the upper house of parliament a candidate needs 4481 votes to win 224x10041 1 each mla carries a weightage of 100 votesbjp and congress can win two and one seat respectively considering their present strength in the assembly while jds cannot win any this has triggered a triangular fight for the fourth seatsince none of the three candidates for the fourth seat will be able to get 4481 votes it will be necessary to count second third and fourth preferential votes if needed polled by candidates who have been declared elected said an official from the assembly secretariatthese votes will be added to the tally of the candidate to whom they are marked if none of the candidates reaches the quota even at this stage elimination will kick in and the one who polls the least number of votes will be eliminated second preferential votes polled by him eliminated candidate will be added to the tally of one of the two remaining in the fray in case none of the two candidates reaches the quota even at this stage the winner will be decided based on the highest votes bagged therefore bjp had the advantagewith 122 mlas including one bsp and one independent bjp may allot votes of its first batch of 90 mlas to two candidates 4500 votes each its third candidate will be left with the votes of 32 mlas 3200 votes however 19 surplus votes each from the first and second candidate will be transferred to the third candidate taking his tally to 3238 votes provided all votes polled for the first and second candidate are validcongress with 70 mlas including one independent may allot votes of its first batch of 45 mlas to its first candidate so its second candidate will be left with 2500 votes and he will also get 19 surplus votes transferred from the first candidate taking his tally to 2519 votesthe jds with only 32 mlas will have no surplus votes and its candidate will get 3200 votes if all its mlas vote for him but jds is struggling with dissidence and its mlas are expected to cross vote if congress manages to get eight jds votes the bare minimum its candidate will win the fourth seat with a tally of 3319 votes but this is contingent on no jds mla voting for the bjp candidate any other scenario also puts bjp at an advantagewe had a similar situation in 2016 and seven jds mlas voted for our candidate we will do it again said kpcc general secretary malavalli shivanna but lahar singh