feds policy rate and the real rate accordingly may be quite small a reason to move slowly in increasing the benchmark ratems yellen acknowledged this point on wednesday saying it was a reason for the fed to move carefully but she said she expected the natural rate to rise with the economythe fed is basically ready to make a bet that the economy will continue to recover monetary policy exerts a gradual influence on economic conditions so the fed must constantly guess what happens next and officials are increasingly convinced that the odds are on the side of higher rateswaiting too long ms yellen said might even inadvertently push the economy into recession