one of the big reasons why you should high floor since 2012 there are only two running backs who have averaged more than 1300 rushing yards and nine touchdowns a season marshawn lynch and alfred morris there is nothing sexy about morris and his limitations in the passing game keep his ceiling low but his floor is high i love morris this year especially at his current fourthround adp on espn but the point is again range of outcomes assuming health the range of outcomes for morris is somewhere between no 7 and 13 at running back this season high floor limited range of outcomes meanwhile someone like justin forsett who has a much shorter track record of being a top fantasy running back is older and has a new offensive coordinator this season now the new offensive coordinator is fantasyfriendly the ravens say they are keeping most of what they did last season under gary kubiak and its a very good offensive line so he could easily repeat it could also all go downhill there is a wide range of outcomes for forsett im not going to do this for every player everything else you readhearsee from me and everyone else this preseason will be about player evaluation so im keeping this mostly to theory and strategy so i want players with a high floor that consistency week in and week out is what wins championships every week there will be players who go off on your team and on your opponents and unless its a seventouchdown game from peyton manning or something in general what will win the week for you is the other guys getting solid production from the rest of your lineup every roster spot matters i wanted to try to figure out a way to valuate high floor for the full season from a drafting point of view so heres what i did i looked at where every player finished in terms of fantasy points at his position for the past three years i weighed the 2014 season at 50 percent 2013 at 35 percent and 2012 at 15 percent the idea is that most recent production should count the most but a players recent body of work should count for something and since there is less data and in theory more inherent risk with younger players if a player didnt appear in a season he got a 40thplace finish at quarterback and tight end and a 90thplace finish at running back and wide receiver so using this criteria heres the top 10 at running back in terms of their threeyear average finish at the position a safety score if you will or even if you wont marshawn lynch 350 matt forte 485 jamaal charles 505 demarco murray 705 lesean mccoy 1035 alfred morris 1165 frank gore 1455 joique bell 1695 arian foster 1715 eddie lacy 1860 interesting no upside expected plans of the team health and much more need to