analysis bundesligas homefield advantage has collapsed in front of empty stands creditpool photo by alexander hassensteinon soccerwhen the bundesliga resumed its season without fans it became a valuable laboratory other leagues should take note of what it learnedhome teams were less likely to win without fans in the stands an analysis of bundesliga matches showedcreditpool photo by alexander hassensteinjuly 1 2020germanys privilege was also its risk on may 16 the bundesliga became the first major league in any sport in the world to tread gingerly into the light of the postcoronavirus world and attempt to play on to some it was a purely financial decision evidence of soccers lost soul to others it was existential pragmatism the only way to ensure survivaleither way the bundesliga became a trailblazer a reference point for all the other leagues trying to find their way out of lockdown englands premier league has credited its german rival with accelerating its own return and bundesliga executives reported fielding calls from their counterparts in major north american sports who were eager to pick their brainsbut more than that the bundesligas comeback turned into a grand experiment one that could answer some of soccers and to some extent sports biggest questionsfor decades studies have examined the role fans play in the worlds most popular game how much do they contribute to home advantage does their presence affect the way teams play would their absence materially alter the nature of the gamethe bundesligas data offers the first glimmer of an answer to some of those questions and an unwelcome glimpse into some of the games mechanicsfans are the homefield advantageimagecreditmatthias balkdpa via associated pressif the last six weeks proved anything it was that players thanking fans for their support after a game is more than a platitude homefield advantage has long been far more significant in soccer than in most other sports the great unwelcome experiment running in germany since may has demonstrated that what constitutes that advantage is not mere familiarity but largely the fansthe performances of home teams in the bundesliga have for all intents and purposes collapsed in front of empty stands the number of home victories slipped by 10 percentage points to 33 percent of matches in empty stadiums from 43 percent in full ones the change has been so extreme in fact that lukas keppler a managing director of the data and analytics firm impect noted a sort of negative home advantage for the first time in soccer history he said it has appeared at times to be easier to be playing on the road according to data provided by another analysis firm gracenote home teams scored fewer goals than they had in full stadiums 174 to 143 per game leading to a decline in goal scoring over allthey also took fewer shots a decrease of 10 percent and those that they did take were worse the probability of any given shot ending up as a goal dropped more than a point to 1111