nagpur domestic travel bans amidst the deadly covid19 pandemic can increase cases finds the latest study by the university of chicago based on data from india specifically mumbai and five other nations the study highlights that domestic travel restrictions can lead to more rather than fewer infections overall especially when there is a large urbanrural migrant populationreleased on thursday the research paper suggests that imposing travel bans can counterintuitively increase the total spread of the disease creating a loselose situation this outcome occurs when a country has a large migrant population that is prevented from leaving an urban hotspot and returning to rural areas if the net effect of a travel ban is to delay the movement of these people rather than prevent it entirely the policy can lead to more cases overall it statesthe paper uses detailed data on ruralurban migration travel ban policies and covid19 cases to show that this loselose outcome occurred in india during the first wave due to travel bans imposed on migrants wishing to leave mumbaiwhile the hardships faced by migrant workers prevented from returning to their villages was seen as a necessary sacrifice to reduce the spread of disease to rural india experts have come up with contrasting findingsduring the first wave the national lockdown trapped millions of migrants inside big cities like mumbai which were fastgrowing coronavirus hotspots eventually people were able to leave but variations in government policies meant that the length of time they were detained depended on where they wanted to go in the case of rural districts where people could return quicker using mediums like shramik special trains cases rose modestly at the destination said anant sudarshan south asia director of the energy policy institute at the university of chicago and one of the study authorshe added but for areas where bans were in effect longer there was an intensive increase in the spread of virus likely because the returning population was more likely to be infected having been trapped in the hotspot longerapart from mumbai the paper analyses data from five other countries where migration is prevalent china indonesia the philippines south africa and kenya although exceptionally long bans may work to reduce total cases moderate durations are associated with significant increases in disease spread the study addsfiona burlig assistant professor at the harris school of public policy at the university of chicago and one of the coauthors of the study said the evidence indicates that if the duration of a travel ban is not long enough we may end up imposing hardship on people while perversely seeing more spread of infection there may be merit in letting people go home early