it is 1054am on a monday morning and ive had to do a ton of math that i am frankly not qualified for all because of an unbelievably lucky old school runescape player who bagged three ultrarare drops in a true feat of mmo rng i honestly dont know where to begin so lets start with this tweet from osrs diehard bazilijus who recently obtained three megarare items from old schools clue scrolls in a single day with the twitch clips to back it up 3 in day 1 lol pictwittercom9unqbg2szxjuly 22 2023see moreyou may remember bazilijus as the first player to get every single boss drop in an enormous grind after 22000 total hours played the point of that boss grind and now this clue scroll grind is to complete old school runescapes daunting collection log which essentially tracks all the rare drops that youve obtained this incredible clue scroll high roll has brought bazilijus considerably closer to the still faroff finish line and like many players im struggling to calculate the odds because there are so many variables in play bazilijus managed to save up 600 of the reward caskets that you get from hard clue scrolls with each clue taking around five minutes to complete judging from his final run thats approximately 50 hours of grinding and he was going to cash in the payoff in a matter of minutesby his 426th casket bazilijus had obtained three pieces of the ultrarare 3rd age armor which is often seen as the pinnacle clue reward i am a bit of a math nerd but i am not a mathematician so im just going to do my best to explain why my gast is so flabberedthere are 13 3rd age items on the hard clue drop table and the old school runescape wiki confirms that the odds of getting a specific piece from a reward roll on a hard clue are about 1211250 however the odds of getting any piece are only 116250 and because you get multiple rewards per clue the total odds of a hard casket dropping any 3rd age item are 13250 as osrs developer jagex affirmed in a blog post last year the thing is bazilijus wasnt after any 3rd age piece theyre trying to fill out the collection log after all so they wanted unique 3rd age items pieces theyd never obtained before the collection log hiscores show that they only had two 3rd age items logged before this mindboggling chain of events which means they had successive 1113 1013 and 913 odds of getting a unique 3rd age item after hitting the 13250 drop table and yes this does mean that the ultrarare clue hunt gets considerably harder over time this shrinking pool changes the odds of each of these three drops bazilijuss third fourth and fifth 3rd age items being unique heres my best estimationfirst roll 13840second roll 14225third roll 14694the good news is that the average rate of