new delhi in a contest where even mulayam singh yadav has consciously shed his pet hats of maulana and pichchda the multiplicity of variables deciding the fate of 15th up assembly can be gauged easilyconventional poll equations secular vs communal and obc vs forwards have been turned on their head as not only have bjp and congress sneaked into a direct sp vs bsp contest but upper castes are back on centrestagea powerful factor set to impact up polls is that brahmins and thakurs are back in favour after 15 years since mandal turned the state into an obc cauldron up is witnessing an obcoriented sp and a predominantly dalit bsp reaching out to upper castes with unprecedented vigourwith 86 brahmin candidates mayawati has gone all out to forge a winning dalitbrahmin combo and with bjp and congress also playing suitors the community is hot propertyit may or may not be a threeway split but if brahmins buy bigtime into bsps invitation offer of sarvjan it may be curtains for mulayamsp supremo himself is banking heavily on op thakur he launched by making a cause out of raja bhaiyyas pota incarceration whether his slogan jail ka phatak tootega raja bhaiyya chhootega rings with thakurs would have a bearing on sps tally a continuing prosp tilt among thakurs would give mulayam an edge and help counter bsps brahmin gainjust as keenly watched are muslims who from being source of congresss stability preayodhya to sps pillars postbabri are being aggressively wooed by bsp and congress even rld has roped in muslim mps from bijnore to moradabad in western up all to the consternation of maulana mulayamthat timing of poll was important was evident when mulayam pleaded for a vote before april barely into the first week mercury has shot to 40 degrees ensuring power and water cuts remain a factor polling during harvest season could dent voter turnout too not so good a thought for nonbsp partiesif a plethora of variables has added to the up conundrum so has a multiphased election the sevenphased polls with central forces manning just 60odd seats at one time is seen to neutralise the incumbents advantage euphemism for partisan administration this allegedly played a role in sps handsome performance in 2004 lok sabha pollsbut staggered polls could let voters of one region be influenced by popular assessment of trends from another small antiincumbency can turn into a wave and that is a genuine fear harboured by sp