consumers could feel the pinch of high wholesale inflation in the next threefour months economists said adding that weakening rupee could add to price pressures at the retail level however the rise in retail prices isnt likely to be as steep as that of wholesale rates as the two dont move in lockstep they saidwholesale inflation accelerated to the fastest since 1991 in november clocking the eighth successive month of doubledigit increase at 142 retail inflation based on the consumer price index cpi hardened to a threemonth high of 491 in the month from 448 in october core inflation the nonfood nonfuel component of the index used to gauge demand pressures jumped to a fivemonth high of 608 at the retail level in november and a record high of 123 at the wholesale level advt however this anticipated speeding up of retail inflation may not happen if the omicron variant takes a harsh toll and demand falls in consequence wpi passthrough to retail inflation used to take threefour months earlier but we dont know if the relationship would hold now in the postcovid world said mahindra group chief economist sachchidanand shukla historical evidence theres significant difference in the composition of the consumer and wholesale inflation indices but the latter does have an impactwe dont have very strong statistical causation between cpi and wpi but a long period of input price rise translates into retail inflation said sakshi gupta an economist at hdfc bankan hdfc bank analysis shows a 1 increase in wholesale primary food prices could push retail inflation up by 48 basis points bps a 10 rise in oil prices could add 10 bps to retail inflation with a lag of one month one basis point is onehundredth of a percentage pointsimilarly 1 depreciation in the rupee is estimated to increase wpi by 21 bps this assumes significance as the rupee dropped to a low of 7623 against the dollar earlier this week a weaker rupee raises the domestic prices of fuel and gold apart from those of several inputs and consumer goodsas far as the transmission from wholesale to retail inflation is concerned historical evidence suggests a poor correlation of just 16 on headline basis for the data series beginning april 2013 said vivek kumar economist at quanteco research advt however the correlation improves to 47 if one considers core wholesale and core retail inflationthe continued demand recovery if unhindered by the omicron variant could allow producers to pass on higher prices to consumersas they have in the fmcg and auto sectors rising telecom tariffs and higher gst on clothing and footwear will put further pressure on inflationwhen wholesale prices go up sharply the full increase is not passed on as retailers balance their prices and hence the cpi shows a lower increase such as with onions and tomatoes said madan sabnavis chief economist at care ratingshowever the actual transmission will depend on industry level capacity utilisation as well as the output gap further passthrough could