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> お金を拾いました。今日は何かいいこと（ **あるようです** / **ありそうです** ）。

We got into a bit of a dilemma over this in class. Which one do you guys think
is right in this case?

**EDIT:** We actually went over the questions in class, and the answer is
ありそうです, according to the official worksheet solutions, which was somewhat
unexpected, as this seems like more of a job for ようだ, considering that the
evidence is not (solely) visual in nature.

The only explanation we could think of, was that そうだ provides a weaker level
of evidentiality than ようだ, and so it conveys a sense of superstitiousness
better.

But even if the case is that そうだ sounds more natural, we couldn't grasp why
ようだ would be incorrect, if it is. (We've already encountered one or two slight
errors in the textbook, but I'm assuming that isn't the case here.)
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word-choice nuances
Specific textbook example sentence on V(ます)+そう vs. V(普通)+よう
V(masu form)+そうだ means "one's own guess". V+ようだ means "an event or action that
will happen with high probability because of very reliable information".

For example, you can say 雨が降りそうだ when you see the cloudy sky, but it's only
your guess. On the other hand, you can say 雨が降るようだ and you have already gotten
the information from the weather news.

As for your example, even if you got money, "good things will happen" is just
your own guess, not because of reliable information.
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そうだ can describe a subjective "hunch" about the future based on non-visual or
vague information. From [this
page](http://viethuong.web.fc2.com/MONDAI/difficulty.html):

> 様態の「～そうだ」は主として視覚的印象（外見からの判断）を述べる助動詞ですが、(snip)
> **視覚でとらえられない動詞について漠然とした予想・予感の世界を表すようになります** 。(snip)
>
>   * まだ会議は始まりそうもないから、コーヒーでも飲んできましょう。
>   * 戦争はまだまだ続きそうですねえ。
>   * ああ、寒い。風邪をひきそうだ。
>   * この仕事は今日中に終わりそうです。
>

In such cases, there doesn't have to be objective reasoning or perceivable
evidences; you intuitively feel so for whatever reason. Another example is
楽しそう ("Sounds fun!") after hearing some exciting plan. This function of そうだ
goes very well with your example.

On the other hand, いいことがあるようです is not grammatically incorrect at all, but it
usually sounds too strong or "objective". It sounds as if you strongly believe
in the cause-effect relationship between お金を拾う and 今日いいことがある. If you had a
supernatural ability and have successfully predicted your future with a high
degree of accuracy, saying 何かいいことがあるようです would be perfectly natural.

Likewise, 死にそうだ ("I'm dying!") is something one may use rather casually, but
死ぬようだ ("It appears that I am going to die") sounds objective and thus very
serious.
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