All taken from「みんなの日本語」.

There is two「~そうだ」：  
-「ます-stemそうだ」(conjecture/guess)  
-「V-dictionnary そうだ」(hearsay).   

And for「~らしい」too:  
One for hearsay and one for conjecture/guess (and other for typical property).

For the diffenrence between「~らしい」(hearsay) vs「~そうだ」(hearsay) : I ask
[here](https://japanese.stackexchange.com/q/80233/39752).

So, what is the difference between「ます-stemそうだ」(conjecture/guess)
and「~らしい」(conjecture/guess)?

> _I see big dark clouds_  
> 雨が降るらしい。= 雨が降りそうです。?  
> both translate "It looks like it's going to rain" ?

I didn't find in other topics the anwser. Can you help me?

Thanks.
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grammar nuances
「~らしい」(conjecture/guess) vs「~そうだ」(conjecture/guess)
I tend to see the らしい (conjecture/guess) as closer to ようです than そうです. That is
to say,

  1. for そうです the conjecture is **based on how something looks** /physical appearence

  2. whereas with らしい/ようです your conjecture is based on other **input different from pure physical look** , such as information you already had, indirect evidence, or whatever.

To be honest, the difference is more between そうです and ようです than between そうです
and らしい, so it's possible that らしい could be used like in 1. too, overlapping
with そうです. I am not sure of this, but for what it's worth, I _**tend**_ to see
らしい _**closer**_ to 2.

* * *

If it helps, I attach you the description of the grammar point らしい
(conjecture) given in my textbook, 「上級へのとびら」, lesson 6:

[![enter image description
here](https://i.stack.imgur.com/15ktK.jpg)](https://i.stack.imgur.com/15ktK.jpg)
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With the enlightement of the anwser of @jarmanso7 and some research , I have
maybe understand the difference:

So, the difference between「ます-stemそうだ」(conjecture/guess)
and「~らしい」(conjecture/guess), is, respectively, the same between conjecture and
supposition.

Eventually, the same difference between[「~らしい」(hearsay)
vs「~そうだ」(hearsay)](https://japanese.stackexchange.com/q/80233/39752).  
「~らしい」(conjecture/guess) and「~ようだ」(conjecture/judgment), supposition and
judgment(opinion, view).

Supposition : an advanced conjecture probable/plausible, a conjecture with a
little more interpretation / judgment of the speaker.

> _The speakers see something_  
> 「ます-stemそうだ」(conjecture/guess) → "It looks like~" _objectively_  
>  「~らしい」(conjecture/supposition) → "It seems / looks ~" (I think it's~) _a
> bit subjective / interpretation_  
>  「~ようだ」(conjecture/judgment) → "It seems to me~" _subjectively_

What do you think?
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My understanding of this matter is:

  * [masu-stem] + そうだ is used to tell an associative guess based on a sensory input from the target
  * [dictionary-form] + らしい is used to tell a conclusion from evidence, without direct contact with the target

We use ～しそうだ when we run into a situation that we can naturally associate an
apparent scene we sense with another related probable event. For example,
seeing a ball on the edge, we can imagine it falling (落ちそう); hearing a creak,
we can imagine the machine is worn out inside (壊れそう); smelling a flavor, we
can imagine a delicious taste (おいしそう). But whether it really happens, is
unsure.

～らしい is more like a logical inference from a concrete evidence. When you see a
kennel by the door, you can conclude that this house has a dog (飼っているらしい; but
you didn't sense the dog). When you see a lot of people standing in line, you
can conclude that this restaurant is delicious (おいしいらしい; but you didn't see
they served food). When the speaker use it, it is sure enough for them not to
require another direct confirmation, unless the evidence has an unsuspected
flaw (say, the doghouse is what former residents left there). Actually, I feel
that this ～らしい is more naturally reworded to ～に違いない "it must be; I bet".

Of course, the standard of what is naturally (automatically) associative and
what only inferable by reasoning may vary. That is the point where their
distinction starts to blur. But generally, the nearer you get to the object
you judge, the more likely しそうだ is used; the more distant from your sensory
range, the more らしい.

> 雨が降るらしい

This example does not sound having much place to use. If it means it is going
to rain, someone must have an indirect evidence that accurately predicts
rains. Maybe it can be used in a place a west wind is always precursor of
rain, or when a traveler walking on an arid land finds a trace of river flow,
and thinks that "it can rain here".

According to this [paper](http://www.lib.kobe-u.ac.jp/handle_kernel/E0041515)
reports that "conjecture" らしい has only one tenth frequency compared to
"hearsay" らしい. I do have an impression that it is an extension of "hearsay"
らしい, replaced a person with a physical evidence.
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