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So there are several ways to express something is "seemingly not ～":

>   * ～なさそう
>   * ～そうにない
>   * ～そうもない
>   * ～そうにもない (is this one even real?)
>

I was always taught ～なさそう in my Japanese classes, and it was not until I heard
one of the other ones that I ever become confused about them.

After doing a little research on this, it seems that adjectives can only take
～なさそう. ex.

> ○ 料理がおいしくなさそう  
>  ？／× 料理がおいしそうにない

but that verbs can take any of the forms

> ○ 雨が 降らなさそう／降りそう（に・も・にも？）ない

So, my questions are a) is the above reasoning correct, and b) what are the
differences/nuances of the latter three forms? Someone please set me straight
on this; it's been bugging me for a couple years.
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usage grammar nuances
Confusion about "Seemingly not ～"
Looks like you have done your research well. You are correct with verbs only
taking そうに/もない。Although そうにもない is not grammatical.

>   * 雨が降らなさそう you make an assumption based on current state of the sky.
>   * 雨が降りそうにない you have confidence that it wont rain (due to some extra
> information maybe).
>   * 雨が降りそうもない you want it to rain but it seems like it wont (from extra
> information or from appearances)
>

There is another common way to express the same idea, ～みたいです。only used in the
affirmative. (ie, 「～みたいじゃない」ってだめです）

>   * あの男の人は学生じゃないみたいです on campus you plainly state that guy over there
> doesn't seem like a student.
>   * 雨が降らないみたいですよ when you heard a broadcast or checked the web. よ shows your
> confidence here. But...
>   * 雨が降らないみたいですね is similar to 降らなさそう because you are looking for agreement
> with ね
>
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I just realized I didn't know the difference so I asked a native Japanese.

Here is the explation

> 降らなさそう

normal straigh meaning: "it doesn't seem to rain"

> 降りそうにない

this sounds like: "I though it would rain, but now it doesn't seem so"

> 降りそうもない

this is like the previous but も makes it more strong, like put an "absolutely"
in front.

> 降りそうにもない

this is correct (same meaning that 降りそうもない) but a bit too complex for casual
conversation. It's かきことば.
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## Different types of ～そう

I think it's best to consider adjective + そう and verb + そう separately, because
they have slightly different meanings. In particular, with verbs, そう has the
sense of something close to happening or about to happen in the near future,
but with adjectives... not really.

```

    雨が降りそうだ。
    It looks like it's about to rain. (near future)
    
    彼女がうれしそうに手をふった。
    She waved happily. (not the future)
    
    あの料理は（まだ食べていないけど、）おいしそうだ。
    (I haven't eaten that food yet, but) it looks tasty. (kind of maybe the future?)
    
```

## Negative form of ～そう with verbs

Other answers have already mentioned that the さ in 降りなさそう is not the
officially correct form, and I found [an authoritative-looking answer on
Oshiete! goo](http://oshiete.goo.ne.jp/qa/2750489.html) which agrees.

I believe that

  * 雨が降りそうにない
  * 雨が降りそうもない
  * 雨が降りそうにもない

all mean the same thing, and [I found a link for that
one](http://detail.chiebukuro.yahoo.co.jp/qa/question_detail/q1122304346) too.

## Difference between ～そうにない and ～なそう (verbs only)

「雨が降らなそう」is the normal negative, which just means "it doesn't look like it's
going to rain. I think ～そうにない (and そうもない and そうにもない) not only add emphasis,
but also imply "I wish it would happen, but it looks hopeless." Your earlier
example 「僕にもわかりそうにない」, "It looks like there's no way I'm going to be able to
understand it either" also fits this pattern. However, it's more difficult to
back this idea up. [I did find a link where someone wrote that 「授業に遅れそうにない」
seemed
unnatural](http://detail.chiebukuro.yahoo.co.jp/qa/question_detail/q10103755895),
but they couldn't explain why.
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