Johnson & Johnson sees GLP-1 impact on weight loss surgeries
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Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) CEO Joaquin Duato said Tuesday that highly popular obesity drugs called GLP-1 agonists are having at least a near-term impact on weight loss surgeries.
His remarks came after the pharma giant posted better-than-expected Q3 2023 results despite a slight underperformance in its MedTech unit, which relies on demand for gastric bypass and other bariatric surgeries.
"We're seeing some impact in our bariatric business in the short term as some patients are reconsidering surgery, expecting to get treatment," Duato said. Meanwhile, CFO Joseph Wolk added that procedure volumes in 2024 are expected to remain flat after a rise in 2024.
However, citing surgeons, the company said it doesn't rule out a potential tailwind in the long run, given the complementary role played by GLP-1s and bariatric surgeries against obesity.
"And many of the patientsâabout 30% of themâare not going to be tolerating these medications. So there would be another funnel for our bariatric business," Duato added.
Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Eli Lilly (LLY) dominate the market for GLP-1s with their FDA-approved treatments, Wegovy and Mounjaro, indicated in the U.S. for obesity and type 2 diabetes, respectively. Eli Lilly (LLY) is awaiting FDA authorization to market its GLP-1, known as tirzepatide, for weight loss before year-end.
Other MedTech stocks with exposure to weight loss surgeries include Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ:ISRG), ReShape Lifesciences (NASDAQ:RSLS) and Medtronic (NYSE:MDT). 
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has become the latest to predict $100B market potential for weight-loss drugs in 2030. "The chronic weight management market is undergoing an inflection," Bloomberg reported, quoting analysts led by Chris Shibutani.
The firm expects Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Lilly (LLY) to lead the anti-obesity drug market, with ~15M Americans receiving the drugs for chronic weight management in 2030 out of about 105M obese or overweight adults.
In September, JPMorgan projected GLP-1 agonists to generate more than $100B in annual sales by 2030, with LLY and NVO leading the competition.

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