Tesla earnings will shine a bright spotlight on Shanghai
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Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) reports earnings on Wednesday following the market close with the dominant focus expected to be on what the outlook is for Shanghai production in Q2 amid the lockdowns around Shanghai.
The electric vehicle leader just started production back up at its Shanghai factory after an extended COVID-19 lockdown in the region kept the plant effectively closed since March 28. Reports have indicated employees will be living onsite at the Gigafactory, where they will get catered meals, a small daily stipend, access to showers, and entertainment options. 
That leads to the main question around the TSLA earnings report being clarity on the current and expected pace of China production, as well as the overall view on the impact of zero-tolerance COVID policies in China. Any surprises could reset expectations across Wall Street. China has been the biggest topic with analyst comments into the report.
Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives (Buy rating): "We estimate that roughly 50k units are now reduced for the June quarter for starters given the last three weeks of shutdown and depending on how aggressively Tesla can ramp back production could be impacted further over the next month. Musk & Co. are in a tough spot, as there are so many variables around 2Q China production that will certainly weigh on guidance for the rest of the year and thus has been a clear overhang on the stock over the past month."
Evercore ISI analyst Chris McNally (In Line rating): "Q2âs outlook/commentary is likely to be more important than Q1âs EBIT/EPS given Shanghai ongoing extended closure due to Covid restrictions â keep in mind that every week of closure (3+ so far), is 16-18k units of production lost, $80- $100MM of Rev, $24-$35MM of lost EBIT and 18-23c of lost EPS. Potential new catalysts now include hard data on extent of China production setbacks or restart (a major exporter for TSLA to EU) as well as any legislation loosely-related to the former âBuild Back Betterâ US reconciliation bill which increases manufacturer caps for federal tax credits on consumer."
Credit Suisse analyst Dan Levy (Buy rating): "The Shanghai restart cadence (and) the Berlin/Austin ramp add an element of uncertainty to 2022 deliveries... Margins remain a key focus amid cost inflation."
Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner (Buy rating): "We suspect that April delivery could be more skewed towards fulfilling domestic orders than usual given logistical challenges around the Shanghai port... Covid impacts in China aside, chip shortages remain a near-term risk to production, but we believe Tesla has demonstrated the agility needed to manage supply-chain constraints better than peers, also reflected in the q/q flat production figure for Q1."
Looking for a wildcard in the Tesla (TSLA) earnings report? Morgan Stanley thinks investors might start looking at the stock as a play on renewable energy on-shore infrastructure. "We believe recent geopolitical events are working to accelerate the market for stationary storage at the grid/industrial/household level," noted analyst Adam Jonas. Any guidance or color on the energy storage systems could spark a new avenue for valuation tinkering.
Dig through some of the Tesla earnings numbers.