Moderna Q4 results, COVID vaccine's future in focus with pandemic at 'transition point'
Maddie Meyer

Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) is scheduled to announce Q4 earnings results on Thursday, February 23rd, before market open.
The consensus EPS Estimate is $4.60 (-59.3% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $5.02B (-30.4% Y/Y).
Over the last 2 years, MRNA has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 75% of the time.
Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 3 upward revisions and 4 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 5 upward revisions and 3 downward.
The company's stock fell on Nov. 3, 2022 after Q3 results missed estimates. Total revenue fell to $3.4B, compared to $5B in Q3 2021, mainly due to a decline in the sales of its mRNA COVID-19 vaccine.
In January, Moderna projected ~$18.4B in sales from its COVID-19 vaccine in 2022 and reaffirmed the expected minimum COVID vaccine sales in 2023 at ~$5B.
According to analytics firm GlobalData estimates, COVID vaccine sales will decline by $10B between 2021 and 2028.
The U.S. is set to lift the public health emergency in May but FDA remains cautious. In January, a panel of advisors to the FDA suggested that individuals get COVID-19 updated shots on a regular basis to keep up with new variants.
The WHO also maintained that COVID-19 remains a public health emergency of international concern but noted that the pandemic is at a 'transition point.'
However, the price of the vaccine has been in the limelight. The White House has already criticized the company's plan to raise the price of the COVID-19 shot to as much as $130 per dose.
Meanwhile, Moderna is set to fight off its rivals Pfizer and BioNTech in a London high court in 2024 over a patent infringement case related to their blockbuster COVID-19 vaccines.

In this earnings season, Moderna's stock, however, is among earnings-at-risk stocks according to a report from UBS in February.
The company's shares also took a hit earlier in February after mixed results of its flu vaccine mRNA-1010 in phase 3 trial.
In a 13F filing for the three months ended Dec. 31, 2022, it was disclosed that Lone Pine took a stake of 1.4M shares in Moderna. Separately, Coatue Management increased its stake in Moderna to 6.39M shares from ~5.71M.
One of the major news for the company in Q4 was in the mRNA cancer vaccine space. Moderna and Merck's mRNA cancer vaccine mRNA-4157/V940, in combination with Keytruda, cut the risk of recurrence or death by 44% in patients with a type of skin cancer in a phase 2b trial.
In January, Moderna's respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine mRNA-1345 received the breakthrough therapy designation from the FDA. Bank of America had welcomed the company's phase 3 data for the RSV vaccine for older adults which had met its main efficacy goals.
Recent earnings Analysis from our contributors: Moderna Stock: Looking For The Future In Q4 Earnings