Elon Musk's Tesla hit the skids in 2022. Here are some analysts who saw it coming
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After representing one of the standout Wall Street success stories of the previous few years (and the platform for one of the highest-profile business icons of his generation), Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) suffered a massive setback in 2022. While the exact contours of the decline were hard to predict, including the impact of CEO Elon Musk's purchase of Twitter, many Seeking Alpha contributors foresaw trouble for the electric vehicle maker.
Those warnings proved correct, as shares of the electric vehicle maker dropped more than 60% for the year. The retreat came amid aggressive rate hikes from the Federal Reserve and trouble in China due to both competition and COVID constraints. And, of course, there was the distraction of Muskâs well-publicized $44B purchase of Twitter.
As the firm's valuation soared to heights of over $1T in November 2021, Muskâs trust sold nearly $7B worth of stock -- a move that was proceeded by a Twitter poll asking the public whether he should make the transaction. (This was well before Musk began the process of acquiring the social media giant.)
That moment appeared to mark the very top for the stock for at least a while. Since that point, the CEO has made additional large stock sales, in part driven by his need to fund the purchase of Twitter. Meanwhile, TSLA has faced other headwinds, from monetary policy to economic uncertainty to product/supply chain snags to growing competition within the industry.
Predicting the Plunge
Here are Seeking Alpha editorsâ picks for some of the best contributor work predicting the crash for the Austin-based automakerâs stock in 2022.
Seeking Alpha contributor Jaberwock Research has been a consistent monitor of Muskâs stock sales, highlighting potential dangers as early as November 2021. Jaberwock again pointed to the risks posed by the Twitter acquisition in late April, noting concerns related to margin loans. 
While Musk eschewed the initial margin loans offered by bankers, notably scrapping them in May, Bloomberg has reported that Morgan Stanley is again pushing the option to replace some of the riskiest debt associated with the Twitter (TWTR) deal.
On the demand front, fellow SA contributor Mike Smitka was an early voice questioning the ability of Tesla to maintain its stellar track record of sales in the all-important Chinese market. While the automaker has indeed set records for sales in the region into 2022, year-end trends suggest shifting supply and demand dynamics.
For example, Tesla has pursued multiple price cuts on Model 3 and Model Y vehicles to spur demand and compete with domestic rivals that have also been eager to lower sticker prices. 
Picking up on struggles in China later in the year, John Engle, another SA contributor, pointed to several red flags. These included intensifying competition in the market and the increasing reliance of Tesla on export markets for vehicles produced in Shanghai.
Engleâs analysis of potential overproduction in China came about a week before both Bloomberg and Reuters reported that Tesla would be paring back its production schedule at the Shanghai factory. While Tesla China initially denied these reports, the schedules were eventually confirmed and are reportedly being extended into 2023 as well. 
Battle Lines Drawn
Despite the steep plunge, bulls on TSLA are still pounding the table. According to Seeking Alpha data, the consensus estimate of Wall Street analysts remains at a Buy. This includes 12 Strong Buy ratings and seven Buy ratings.
Even so, there exists a growing number of skeptics on Wall Street. Major analysts have issued 12 Hold ratings. In addition, the Street has seen three Sell recommendations.
Among SA contributors, the general vibe is more cautious. The consensus author rating at year-end is a Hold. On one side of the spectrum sit three Strong Buys and seven Buys. This is generally balanced by five Sell and two Strong Sell ratings.