Weekly restaurant survey holds well amid looming uncertainties
Gins Wang

Week ending November 13 restaurants survey by Baird shows slightly better results than prior week.
Sample size of restaurants with $12B or above in annualized sales.
One-year comparision segment-wise: fast-casual +12%; quick-service +2% and casual dining -5%. Overall +5% compared to +8% last week.
Three-year comparision (seen best due to pandemic-effect): +21% as compared to +20% from last week; mainly due to an uptick for fast-casual and casual dining segments. Casual dining (+3% after roughly flat) and fast-casual (+29% after +27%) and quick-service chains (+22% in both weeks)
Thus far in Q4, demand seems to be holding well, however next 6-12 months could be impacted by spending environment in a tighter economy.
Report cites: 'we still see risk that demand for the most discretionary subsets of the industry (e.g., higher-ticket dinner occasions, afternoon beverages) could begin to soften at some point over the next 6-12 months, particularly if the current aggressive Fed tightening cycle were to lead to worsening employment conditions.'
Stocks on the watch: BJ's Restaurants (BJRI); Dutch Bros (BROS); The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE); Chuy's (CHUY); Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG); Domino's Pizza (DPZ); Darden Restaurants (DRI); Jack in the Box (JACK);El Pollo Loco (LOCO); McDonald's (MCD); Portillo's (PTLO); Restaurant Brands International (QSR); Starbucks (SBUX); Shake Shack (SHAK); Texas RoadHouse (TXRH); Wingstop (WING); Yum! Brands (YUM)
More market insights: 'Macro Turbulence Continues To Bully The Market' and '2023 Thematic Outlook: Rethink Growth'