Hot travel trends could cool quickly as macro pressures mount - BTIG
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Slowing traffic trends for the likes of Airbnb (NASDAQ:ABNB), Booking Holdings, (NASDAQ:BKNG), and Expedia (NASDAQ:EXPE) are encouraging a cautious view from BTIG on travel trends for the remainder of 2022. 
As inflation increases, with airfare and hospitality price hikes headlining recent CPI reports, consumers are becoming less willing to splurge, according to BTIG analyst Peter Saleh.
âOur tracking shows a weakening of trends for ABNB, BKNG, and EXPE so far in June in what could be a first sign that macro pressures are beginning to weigh on travel behavior,â he wrote in a note on Friday. âMore than anything, we view the change in trend as a potential early warning sign that travel isn't immune from the mounting macro pressure.â
In terms of specific tracking data, Saleh cited slowing site traffic across all three names. For Airbnb (ABNB), site traffic fell from +6% in May to -2% in June, while Booking Holdings (BKNG) traffic slumped to -4% from 5% growth in May and Expediaâs traffic fell sharply from a 7% decline in May to a 17% drop in June.
To be sure, Saleh expects the existing bookings seen throughout the spring to support strong second quarter numbers with the summer season remaining resilient. However, the latest figures suggest there could be a steep drop-off into the third quarter as inflation-hit consumers curtail travel plans.
âThis should be a strong Summer travel season in terms of revenue and EBITDA for the [online travel agencies], but we worry that macro pressure could weigh on bookings for stays in future periods,â Saleh concluded. âWe've been talking a lot about recession scenarios for the OTAs recently and this change in traffic trend that we observe could bring those scenarios into sharper focus.â
Read more on recession fears hanging over travel stocks.