Vaccines to dominate pharma sales this year, but Bristol could have most best-sellers
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Given the continued strong demand for COVID-19 vaccines, especially from ongoing contracts with wealthier countries, it doesn't come as a surprise that two of the three top-selling pharmaceutical products this year are expected to be vaccines.
Financial analytics firm Evaluate Vantage projects that Pfizer (NYSE:PFE)/BioNTech's (NASDAQ:BNTX) COVID vaccine known as Comirnaty will be the top selling product this year with sales ~$29B.
Coming in at No. 2 on the list with predicted sales of ~$20B is AbbVie's (NYSE:ABBV) TNF-alpha blocker Humira (adalimumab). Until COVID vaccines became available in late 2020, Humira had dominated the top spot as the top-selling drug in the U.S. for many years.
Two products are tied for No. 3. The first is Moderna's (NASDAQ:MRNA) COVID vaccine called Spikevax that is expected to earn $19.5B for the company. Earlier this month, CEO Stephane Bancel said Moderna signed $18.5B worth of advance purchase agreements for its COVID vaccine this year.
Also in third place with $19.5B in projected sales is Merck's (NYSE:MRK) PD-1 inhibitor used in a variety of cancer indications Keytruda (pembrolizumab). Recent research indicated that the monoclonal antibody may also be effective as an HIV therapy.

Two Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE:BMY) drugs come in the fifth and sixth spots. They are Eliquis (apixaban) at ~$12B and Revlimid (lenalidomide) at just over $11B. Bristol shares Eliquis revenues with partner Pfizer. Bristol could see generic competition for Revlimid next year.
A third Bristol drug made the top 10 list with Opdivo (nivolumab) at No. 9 with ~$9B in projected sales. In November, the company posted encouraging data from a late-stage Opdivo trial in non-small cell lung cancer. 
Coming in at Nos. 7, 8, and 10 respectively are Johnson & Johnson's (NYSE:JNJ) Stelara (ustekinumab) ($10.1B); Gilead Sciences' (NASDAQ:GILD) Biktarvy (bictegravir/emtricitabine/tenofovir) (just under $10B); and Sanofi (NASDAQ:SNY)/Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:REGN) Dupixent (dupilimuab) (~$7.5B). 
The Evaluate Vantage report also estimates the biggest pharmaceutical companies for 2022 based on prescription drug sales. The top five in order are Pfizer, AbbVie, Johnson & Johnson, Novartis (NYSE:NVS), and Bristol-Myers Squibb.

Pfizer is projected to have ~$67B in revenue followed by Abbvie with ~$58B, and J&J at around ~$54B.
In another statistic, Evaluate Vantage also predicts that Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) will have the two biggest launches of the year: donanemab for Alzheimer's disease and tirzepatide for type 2 diabetes. The firm predicts peak 2026 sales of the former at $6B and of the latter at $4.9B.
While the future for COVID-19 vaccines beyond 2022 is uncertain, a potential decline in sales is likely to have a much bigger impact on smaller companies, such as Moderna, than bigger ones such as Pfizer and J&J.