Barclays projects over $5B COVID booster sales in fall 2023
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After the CDC endorsed new COVID boosters developed by Pfizer (NYSE:PFE)/ BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX) and Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA), Barclays estimated Wednesday that the U.S. market for the Omicron XBB.1.5-adjusted shots could reach $5.2B this fall.
Citing nationally representative surveys shared by the CDC at the meeting, Barclays analyst Gena Wang argues that ~25% of U.S. adults "definitely will" get a vaccine and ~18% "probably will."
Using the survey data to model nationwide COVID vaccine demand, Wang projects ~65M Americans "definitely will" and ~111M people "definitely or probably will" get the vaccines. 
That implies a $5.2B and $8.9B market opportunity, respectively, assuming an $80 net price per dose per Barclays' calculations.

At an AdCom meeting ahead of the CDC's decision, Pfizer (PFE) and Moderna (MRNA) announced plans to charge $120 and $129 per dose for their mRNA-based vaccines, respectively.
"We expect MRNA and PFE to split the market," Wang wrote, adding that Moderna's (MRNA) guidance for 2023, which the biotech reaffirmed Wednesday at $6B â $8B, is "likely achievable."
Novavax (NVAX), a distant third in the U.S. COVID-19 vaccine market, is currently awaiting FDA authorization for its XBB.1.5-adjusted protein-based shot.

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