Moderna gains as Cowen upgrades citing a favorable catalyst path
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Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) shares rose in the morning hours Monday after TD Cowen upgraded the COVID-19 vaccine maker to Outperform from Market Perform, citing a favorable catalyst setup ahead.
Even as the pandemic is ending, that analyst Tyler Van Buren argues that 2023 expectations Moderna (MRNA) "are reasonable" and projects COVID vaccine sales could reach $7B â $8B this year compared to the company's $5B outlook.
"Given the success with its COVID-19 vaccines, we believe it is likely that Moderna will be successful in developing effective vaccines for several other diseases," Buren wrote.
He thinks Moderna (MRNA) could be a leader in the vaccine market for the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Pfizer (PFE) and GSK (GSK) are expected to take a near-term lead in the RSV space, with FDA decisions on their vaccine candidates due in May.
Amid low expectations on Moderna's (MRNA) flu vaccine candidate mRNA-1010, Buren argues, "inferiority on flu B does not mean it lacks any protection." The analyst hopes vaccine efficacy data on the influenza B strain, set for a readout before the month's end, could be "superior."
Ahead of a potential readout at AACR and/or ASCO medical events, the analyst also expects favorable results for the personal cancer vaccine Moderna (MRNA) co-develops with Merck (MRK).
Additionally, Buren, who raises his MRNA price target to $180 from $150, thinks that despite higher operating expenses, Moderna (MRNA) will not have to raise cash.
Read: Seeking Alpha contributor Edmund Ingham breaks down the company's FY22 results.