KeyBanc reiterates overweight on Apple as carrier survey shows mixed iPhone 14 demand
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Investment firm KeyBanc Capital Markets reiterated its overweight rating on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) on Thursday, noting that recent carrier survey data showed "mixed" demand trends for the iPhone 14 line, with "strong" demand for the Pro and Max models, but weak interest for the base iPhone 14 and iPhone 14 Plus models.
A group of analysts noted that sell-through results for the iPhone 14 series were mixed, with "in line to slightly below store expectations." The iPhone 14 Pro Max has seen the strongest demand, followed by the iPhone 14 Pro. Initial sell-through for the iPhone 14 Plus was characterized as "disappointing," with "ample" amounts of inventory in stock. 
"Results from our Key First Look Data indicate robust demand for iPhone 14, as October domestic iPhone sales increased 23% [month-over-month] and 2% [year-over-year], with in-store sales increasing 24% [month-over-month] and 11% y/y, while online sales increased 22% m/m but decreased 3% [year-over-year]," the analysts wrote. 
They added that double-digit increases are "consistent" with historical seasonal trends in October, but it's below the five-year historical average, due in part to supply constraints at the high-end, as well as "weaker than expected sell-through of the 14/Plus."
The analysts also noted that Apple (AAPL) is tracking "below historical averages" for the Mac and iPad, with the firm's data showing hardware up 48% quarter-over-quarter, below the three-year average of 68%.
"In other words, consensus expects a lower growth quarter than AAPL's historical average," they added. "We see potential pressure on estimates."
Apple (AAPL) shares ticked higher in premarket trading to $135.80.
The analysts noted that the Mac is likely to experience a sharp decline in Apple's (AAPL) first quarter, with estimates down 34% year-over-year, while the iPad is expected to decline 15%, due to macro headwinds and supply chain constraints.
The analysts added that the sell-through results, along with supply constraints have largely been reflected in Apple's (AAPL) outlooks, but are viewed as "moderately negative" for its suppliers, including Broadcom (AVGO), Cirrus Logic (CRUS), Qualcomm (QCOM), Qorvo (QRVO) and Skyworks Solutions (SWKS).
On Wednesday, it was reported that Foxconn's factory in Zhengzhou, China, which produces a significant portion of Apple's (AAPL) iPhones, is still subject to COVID-19 restrictions even as China lifted the lockdown in the city.