Activision may see $71 a share in FTC suit to block Microsoft deal - survey (update)
Kevork Djansezian
Update 2:38pm: Adds FTC filing suit to block deal.
Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ:ATVI) shares have limited downside in a Federal Trade Commission lawsuit that seeks to block Microsoft's (NASDAQ:MSFT) $69 billion purchase of the videogame maker. 
Activision (ATVI) shares may drop to $71 a share in a suit, according to a Seeking Alpha survey of 14 analysts and traders that follow mergers and acquisitions. The fall to $71 would represent a ~5% decline from its current price. The survey answers ranged from $65 to $75 a share. The survey respondents all expect that Microsoft (MSFT) will fight in court if the deal is blocked. 
The FTC on Thursday sued to block the Activision (ATVI) deal in a 3-1 vote. It would mark the biggest regulatory threat to Microsoft in 20 years, since the DOJ's landmark antitrust suit against the company. 
Activision (ATVI) shares fell 2% to $74.60, while Microsoft (MSFT) rose 1%.
The survey comes as the Federal Trade Commission held a closed door meeting at 11am on Thursday that the New York Post has reported concerns the Activision/Microsoft deal. The report said there's an outside chance that FTC commissioners may vote on the transaction.
Microsoft (MSFT) in recent days has been trying to convince antitrust regulators to approve the deal and MSFT President Brad Smith reportedly met with three Democratic members of the FTC on Wednesday to plead his case. Smith on Monday also penned a Wall Street Journal op-ed piece, where he confirmed that Microsoft (MSFT) was offering rival Sony (SONY) a 10-year guarantee for same-day Call of Duty release.
A Dealreporter item on Wednesday said the Microsoft offer to Sony is unlikely to be accepted. Sony (SONY) is said to be "nowhere near" concluding any agreement with Microsoft (MSFT).
Microsoft (MSFT) is preparing to go to court in the event the FTC does file a suit, Bloomberg reported on Friday. The U.S. is not the only jurisdiction where MSFT may have to fight for the $95 a share Activision deal as the transaction is also seeing in-depth reviews in Europe and the U.K. 
Investors may have a clue into the potential downside in an FTC lawsuit after Politico late last month reported that the antitrust authority was likely to sue to block the mega-deal. Activision shares fell 4% on November 25 in the wake of the Politico item.