Tesla, Nio, Rivian estimates reeled in at Mizuho
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Mizuho Securities moved its expectations for a few of the foremost EV manufacturers downward due to shutdowns in China and supply chain constraints.
âWe have conservatively lowered [second quarter] EV unit delivery estimates for [Tesla] (NASDAQ:TSLA), [Rivian] (NASDAQ:RIVN), and Nio Inc. (NYSE:NIO), given Shanghai shutdowns and supply chain constraints,â the Japanese investment bankâs analyst Vijay Rakesh wrote to clients on Monday.
He explained that Shanghaiâs key place as a manufacturing hub for Tesla (TSLA) stands to significantly hurt its second quarter earnings result. While Rakesh expects demand remains strong despite surging EV prices, the Austin-based EV leader will need time to catch up from this serious interruption, adding to issues in ramping both Berlin and Austin manufacturing bases.
As such, he cut his 2022 delivery target to 1.25M from 1.4M and 2023 estimates from 1.84M to 1.81M. 
For both Rivian (RIVN) and Nio (NIO), Rakesh indicated his preference for a conservative stance. For the former, he wrote that an inflection point for production is still awaited, while the latter is likely to contend with many of the same production issues facing Tesla (TSLA) alongside a weaker Chinese consumer. Additionally, overall supply chain issues in key components like semiconductors are hitting all manufacturers and motivating more cautious estimates across the industry, he explains. 
June quarter estimates for Nio (NIO) were lowered from 24k to 23k, while full-year estimates were reduced from 142k to 138k. Meanwhile, Rivian (RIVN) delivery expectations were cut to 3.9k from 4.2k.
In terms of headline revenue and EPS estimates, Rakesh reeled in his targets for Teslaâs (TSLA) second quarter significantly from $18B and $2.49 to $15.5B and $1.59. Consensus estimates stand at 17.69B and $2.07. For Rivian (RIVN), the same numbers were cut from $317M and a loss of $1.45 to $303M and a loss of $1.54. Overall consensus for sales stands at $312.41M and EPS consensus anticipates a loss of $1.58. Finally, for Nio (NIO), estimates were cut from RMB 9.8B and a loss of RMB 0.76 to RMB 9.34B and RMB 0.92 for the June quarter.
While âBuyâ ratings were maintained for each name, price targets were trimmed across the board. For Rivian (RIVN), the target was cut to $70 from $80, while Nio (NIO) and Tesla (TSLA) price targets were pulled in to $48 from $55 and $1150 from $1300, respectively.
To be sure, he maintained his bullishness on the long-term secular trends despite the near-term noise.
âWe see strong EV demand despite higher prices, with longer lead times, as production and new models ramp,â Rakesh wrote. âDespite elevated macro risks, BEV could see strong 2H ramps as China reopens and demand improves, with BEVs potentially up >55% 2H/1H.â
Read more on similar target trimming at Morgan Stanley as of late.