Nvidia, AMD, other semis in focus as KeyBanc checks indicate mixed picture
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Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) and several other semiconductor stocks were in focus on Tuesday as investment firm KeyBanc Capital Markets said its recent supply chain checks were "mixed," as China is still weak but there are signs of recovery elsewhere. 
"China demand remains weak but does not appear to be getting meaningfully weaker, while we are seeing pockets of recovery within the PC and smartphone markets," a group of analysts, led by John Vinh, wrote in an investor note.
The analysts also said that AI data center demand is "extremely strong," with demand outstripping supply by at least 20%, due to "limited" chip-on-wafer-on-substrate capacity. They also said that the Android smartphone supply chain is seeing rush order activity, despite the reentry of Huawei into the market.
For Nvidia (NVDA), the analysts raised their price target to $750, noting that even though supply is tight, there is still the opportunity for upside given that Amkor Technology (AMKR) has some "incremental" Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate supply and there is "strong" demand for L40S, which they believe could add between $2.5B and $3B in revenue in the second-half of 2023. They also said that the move to higher average selling prices for H100GPUs should help.
"Longer term, we see more meaningful capacity coming online in 2H24, as well as continued outsized growth as NVDA looks to pull in the ramp of its next generation GPU, the B100, into 4Q24," the analysts wrote.
For AMD (AMD), which the firm has an overweight rating and $160 price target on, the analysts said the initial response to MI300X has been "very positive," especially on the hardware, though there have been some software issues.
"Assuming these issues are resolved in a timely manner, we believe AMD has enough capacity to support $3B-$4B in data center GPU revs in 2024," the analysts wrote. "Finally, we believe MI300A is slightly delayed but still expected to ship and ramp in 4Q23 and estimate this represents a $400M-$500M opportunity." 
For Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM), they said the rush of Android smartphone activity is a "positive" and should provide support to second-half estimates.
For Synaptics (SYNA), they boosted the price target to $115 on back of the indications that the company's IoT inventories are getting closer to normalized levels.
The PC and server market (excluding AI) are close to bottoming, which should help Intel (NASDAQ:INTC). However, lowered ramp plans from MediaTek on Intel Foundry Services for Intel 16 node are "disappointing."
Qorvo (QRVO), Micron Technology (MU), Marvell Technology (MRVL), ON Semiconductor (ON) and Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) were also viewed as moderately positive to positive.
Conversely, checks on analog companies, such as Analog Devices (ADI), NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), Texas Instruments (TXN) and Microchip Technology (MCHP) were neutral as China demand remains weak, though there are signs of recovery in PCs and smartphones. The automotive sector remains "healthy" and industrials are "resilient," the analysts added.

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