Apple's sideloading could benefit dating, games; add risk for Google
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If Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) were to allow third-party app stores on iPhones and iPads, a process known as sideloading, it would only provide a "relatively immaterial" benefit to companies such as Bumble (BMBL), Match Group (NASDAQ:MTCH) and Roblox (NYSE:RBLX), while causing a "limited" risk for Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) (GOOGL), analysts at Morgan Stanley said.
The investment firm, which also weighed in on the implications for Apple (AAPL) separately, noted that it would not result in a large financial benefit for dating companies, as both Match (MTCH) and Bumble (BMBL) confirmed to Morgan Stanley that sideloading is an "immaterial" part of their downloads, as Samsung's (OTCPK:SSNLF) Galaxy App Store only has Tinder and no other major dating apps. 
For example, the Morgan Stanley analysts estimate that if Match (MTCH) and Bumble (BMBL) were to get 3% "sideloading penetration" in the European Union, it would lead to and additional $1M to $2M benefit to each companies' 2023 EBITDA results. 
For gaming companies, such as Roblox (RBLX), Playtika Holding (PLTK) and Take-Two (TTWO), the move could help a bit more, albeit not much, resulting in a "limited" bump to their respective EBITDA figures, the analysts posited.
Morgan Stanley said that its research shows that every 2% of in-app purchase revenue that shifts to direct payment, as opposed to payments via the iOS app store, could drive as much as 5% "upside" to the publishers EBITDA in 2024. 
"That said, given the relatively small EU exposure across our coverage, any near-term impact would likely be much smaller," the analysts wrote.
Shares of Bumble (BMBL) and Match Group (MTCH) soared initially after the report that Apple (AAPL) is considering allowing third-party app stores, but eventually closed the Tuesday trading session with more modest gains.
For Google (GOOG) (GOOGL), there is "limited risk" from Apple (AAPL) allowing third-party app stores, given that its Android mobile operating system already allows sideloading, but few customers partake in it, given the additional steps needed to download apps. 
"While we donât know the exact [percent] of Android app downloads that come from third party app stores or sideloading, we believe itâs an immaterial percent given the high friction and lower quality experience," the analysts explained, adding that any potential move from Apple (AAPL) would only impact Google Play indirectly via pricing pressure.
On Monday, Bank of America started coverage on Bumble (BMBL) with a buy rating, noting there is room for more paying customers.