Stock picks de-risked from earnings from UBS
EyeOfPaul

In the midst of earnings season it can pay to look at the differential between earnings per share and operating cash flow, according to UBS.
"Earnings have typically moved closely with operating cash flow, but earnings have risen by much more than OCF the last year outside of Fins/Ener as firms have accrued less on the expense side and working capital has risen," strategist Keith Parker wrote in a note. "Reconnecting with operating cash flow, an arguably more reliable measure of profitability, would point to earnings downside of ~15% for S&P (SP500) (NYSEARCA:SPY) (VOO) (SPLG) ex Fins (XLF)/Ener (XLE)."
"With the median accrual (earnings-OCF dif) at an all time high pointing to broad EPS risk, the high vs low accrual spread is also near the wides making accruals a critical factor to identify relative earnings risk or resilience across stocks."
"For our 'de-risked earnings' screen, we select stocks with 1) low accruals (bottom 15%ile) that have better OCF vs earnings and 2) have had a greater decline in fwd P/E and stronger 3mo earnings revisions (combined 40%ile)." Parker said.
Below is a screen of de-risked earnings with low accruals that de-rated:

Live Nation (LYV)
Iridium Communications (IRDM)
H&R Block (HRB)
Starbucks (SBUX)
Texas Roadhouse (TXRH)
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
Booking Holdings (BKNG)
American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)
Ulta Beauty (ULTA)
Casey's General Stores (CASY)
Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM)
Altria Group (MO)
Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN)
Matador Resources (MTDR)
Equitrans Midstream (ETRN)
Cardinal Health (CAH)
Centene (CNC)
Haemonetics (HAE)
Hologic (HOLX)
Humana (HUM)
CVS Health (CVS)
Lantheus Holdings (LNTH)
United Rentals (URI)
Parker-Hannifin (PH)
CACI International (CACI)
Waste Management (WM)
Republic Services (RSG)
Insperity (NSP)
Alaska Air Group (ALK)
Avis Budget (CAR)
United Airlines (UAL)
Microchip Technology (MCHP)
Enphase Energy (ENPH)
Synopsys (SNPS)
SPS Commerce (SPSC)
Fortinet (FTNT)
Qualys (QLYS)
ServiceNow (NOW)
Newmont (NEM)
CF Industries (CF)
Livent (LTHM)
Linde (LIN)
PNM Resources (PNM)
American Electric Power (AEP)

See the earnings-at-risk stocks.