Airbnb, Expedia and Booking sized up by BofA ahead of earnings
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Airline and lodging bookings showed some deceleration in September, according to credit and debit card information from Bank of America.
The firm said the recent trends suggest that airline bookings are still solid, but have plateaued since the spring with a slight slowdown in early October bookings partially due to Hurricane Ian also a factor.
"For Sept, BAC card spend was stable vs August at 14.5% for lodging and 9% for airlines (vs 2019). For all of 3Qâ22 card data for lodging, 3Q22 spend grew 17% vs 2019, decelerating vs 23% in 2Q22. 3Qâ22 Airlines spend on BAC cards grew 7% vs. 2019, a deceleration vs 12% in 2Q22."
Backing up the BofA data, Sensor Tower travel app September data tracked app download growth decelerated for Airbnb (NASDAQ:ABNB) and Booking Holdings (BKNG), but was higher for Expedia (EXPE). Meanwhile, AirDNA data indicated that Airbnb active listings in September were 6.2M and growth accelerated to +16% Y/Y vs. +14% in August. 
Looking ahead, BofA thinks a key driver for share prices on travel stocks will be the earnings calls when Q4 bookings trends are updated amid the uncertain macroeconomic backdrop.
BofA has a Neutral rating on Airbnb (ABNB)and price objective of $125 price objective based on 8X the 2023 revenue estimate. Booking Holdings (BKNG) attracted a Buy rating from BofA and price objective is $2,550 based on 20X 2023E EPS + cash. Expedia (EXPE) is also rated at Buy at BofA and given a price objective of $145 based on a 50-50 blend of P/E and sum-of-the-parts valuations off 2023 estimate.
Compare valuation, growth, and profitability metrics on Airbnb, Booking, and Expedia side by side.