Moderna downgraded at Deutsche Bank on outlook
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Deutsche Bank downgraded Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) to Hold from Buy, citing concerns about its outlook even after the COVID-19 vaccine maker raised its full-year sales guidance with its Q2 2023 financials on Thursday.
While the biotech raised its full-year 2023 COVID vaccine sales forecast to $6Bâ8B from at least $5B projected previously, analyst Emmanuel Papadakis notes that the companyâs estimate depends on U.S. vaccination rates.
Additionally, Papadakis argues that $4B in the guidance has already been accounted for in the previously announced Advance Purchase Agreements ((APAs)), and $1B of the originally issued APA guidance of $5B has been deferred to 2024.
However, the analystâs major concern relates to Modernaâs (MRNA) margin, which at $3.5B â $4B of cost of goods sales implies less than 50% for 2023 compared to the companyâs previously projected COGS of 35% to 40% of sales.
Noting that the company has maintained its Opex guidance at $6B, Papadakis argues that the biotech is set to report a worse than expected $2B loss.
With net cash of $8.4B, "at this pace, the balance sheet will run out of room far quicker than we had anticipated," Papadakis wrote, slashing his price target on MRNA to $125 from $200 per share.
Deutsche Bank upgraded Moderna (MRNA) to Buy from Hold in September after the company exceeded expectations with its Q2 2022 financials.

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