Can Moderna spring a surprise for Q2 2023 despite falling vaccine demand?
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COVID-19 vaccine maker Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) is scheduled to report its Q2 2023 results on Thursday before the opening bell amid investor expectations of a sharp turnaround from the pandemic-era favorite.
After rising more than 70% in 2021â2022, the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based biotech has lost ~36% this year as investors turned away from COVID vaccine makers amid a decline in infections.
With demand for its only sales generator, Spikevax COVID-shot, under pressure, the company has reported three consecutive quarters of year-over-year revenue declines through Q1 2023.
Seeking FDA approval for its latest COVID shot targeted at the XBB1.5 Omicron variant, Moderna (MRNA) is looking to change fortunes when the updated shot is expected to launch in the fall.
Reaffirming its projection of at least $5B in COVID vaccine sales for 2023 with its Q1 results in May, Moderna (MRNA) projected $0.2B â $0.3B in product sales for Q2 2023, even as demand for Spikevax indicated a less than expected decline.
Over the last two years, MRNA has beaten quarterly EPS estimates 63% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 75% of the time.
However, analysts are not impressed. Over the past three months, Moderna (MRNA) has witnessed no upward revisions to Q2 2023 earnings per share or revenue despite 11 and 12 downward revisions, respectively.
The consensus EPS estimate for the company stands at -$4.12, and consensus revenue estimate is $305.6M (a 94% YoY decline).
Meanwhile, the company's efforts to advance its pipeline beyond COVID continue. Recently, Moderna (MRNA) and its partner Merck (MRK) initiated a pivotal Phase 3 trial to test the company's cancer vaccine mRNA-4157 with the pharma giantâs blockbuster immunotherapy Keytruda in resected high-risk melanoma.

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