Putting a number to Tesla's new Supercharger-for-all business
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Morgan Stanley crunched some numbers on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) on Thursday to find it is not hard to see logic in the Austin-based company looking to achieve dominance in being the filling station of the future by opening up the Supercharger network in the U.S. to other automakers. The firm said it is key to factor in the company's vertically integrated capabilities in renewable energy and storage at scale in considering the value of the Tesla (TSLA) Supercharger business.
Analyst Adam Jonas and team started off by asking the question what if Tesla 'made' its own electricity at a near zero marginal cost (and stable), stored on site with stationary batteries? The firm used broad estimates of 8% of all U.S. miles driven being from electric vehicles in 2030, a 20% Supercharging market share, 4 miles/KWh efficiency and revenue charged at $0.32/KWh. Then it ran scenarios valued at 20X FY30 net operating profit after tax discounted at a 9.0% weighted average cost of capital to determine a value of the charging business.
The Morgan Stanley "reasonable case" assumes 10% EV miles penetration, 50% Tesla share of Supercharging and 30% net operating profit after tax margin to lead to a potential net present value of $3 per share for the business.
The Morgan Stanley "plausible case" assumes 20% EV miles penetration, 70% Tesla share of Supercharging and 50% NOPAT margin to lead to a potential net present value of $14 per share.
The Morgan Stanley "dominant case" assumes 30% EV miles penetration, 80% Tesla share of Supercharging and 70% NOPAT margin to lead to a potential net present value of $33 per share.
The Morgan Stanley "monopoly case" assumes 50% EV miles penetration, 100% Tesla share of Supercharging and 80% NOPAT margin to lead to a potential net present value of $78 per share.
Tesla (TSLA) fell 3.20% in premarket action on Thursday to $248.41 after its 13-session winning streak was broken on Wednesday with a 0.74% dip.
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