NFLX Q1 preview: Focus on subscriber growth amid Russia ban
Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) is scheduled to announce Q1 earnings results on Tuesday, April 19th, after market close.

The consensus EPS Estimate is $2.92 (-22.1% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $7.95B (+11.0% Y/Y).

Analyst ratings: Morgan Stanley cuts its PT to $425 from $450 and maintains equal-weight rating after modifying its subscriber growth expectations ahead of next weekâs 1Q results.

Barclays cuts PT to $380 from $425 as it expects Netflix appears to be on a path to ~4m subs, better than company guidance, but still weak in the absolute for a Q1.
Truist Securities analyst Matthew Thornton cuts target price to $409 a share from $470 and maintained hold rating while taking into account some positives in app downloads and the impact of halting its service in Russia.
Baird expects higher churn risk in EMEA, the company's second largest region, due to potential consumer spending pressure tied to higher energy costs and broader inflationary pressures. Each 10 bps increase in churn could negatively impact EMEA net additions by 200,000. Baird expects 2Q22 net adds of 2.6M and FY22 net adds of 18.1M. Baird has set PT of $420.
BMO Capital Markets cuts PT to $640 from $650.

Q1 Key releases: second season of hit series Bridgerton, along with Inventing Anna and Ozark Season 4 Part 1.
Upcoming releases: In Q2, notable releases include Ozark Season 4 Part 2, Stranger Things Season 4 Part 1, Hustle and Peaky Blinders Season 6.

Earning History: Netflix tumbled 20% after reporting its Q4 results on dismal subscribers add numbers.
Revenue growth has been on a downtrend in the last year with recording 16% Y/Y growth in Q4 from 24% in Q2. The company recorded growth in the range of 20%-30% during the Covid period.




Key Metric: Investors will also focus on Netflix's global paid streaming memberships, also known as global streaming paid subscribers.
In its Q4 release, the company guided Global paid streaming memberships to rise 8% Y/Y, slowest pace in more than three years.
While Russia's contribution to revenue is less than 1%, the shutdown of Netflix service in Russia could impact the subscriber base by 1M.


Over the last 1 year, NFLX has beaten EPS estimates 25% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 100% of the time.
Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 1 upward revision and 14 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 2 upward revisions and 16 downward.