Tesla Q4 preview: Can margin pressures weigh on strong Q4 deliveries?
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Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is scheduled to announce Q4 earnings results on Wednesday, January 26th, after market close.
The consensus EPS Estimate is $2.36 (vs $0.80 in Q420) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $16.65B (+55.0% Y/Y).
Over the last 2 years, TSLA has beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 100% of the time.
Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 16 upward revisions and 0 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 16 upward revisions and 0 downward.
Tesla reported better-than-expected numbers in its Q3 results. Revenue rose 57% YoY as vehicle deliveries ramped up and other parts of the business grew. Vehicle ASP declined by 6% YoY as the Model S and Model X mix reduced YoY due to product updates and as lower ASP vehicles became a larger percentage of Tesla's sales mix.
Shares of Tesla and other EV makers have been down recently amid a general bearish sentiment around tech stocks, high-PE names and cryptocurrencies. Investors were also moving away from high-multiple stocks in tech and auto toward value stocks.
A comparative price return analysis against other EV makers:



Tesla's investors will be happy with its deliveries and production numbers. The automaker reported China-made EV sales jumped +348% Y/Y to 52,859 units in November. Earlier in January Tesla also reported strong Q4 delivery numbers. It produced more than 305,000 vehicles and delivered over 308,000 vehicles in the quarter.
Analyst calls were largely positive following Tesla's quarterly numbers. Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas hiked his price target, noting Q4 deliveries came in 20% above his forecast. Piper Sandler said it expects momentum in Q4 deliveries will extend right into 2022, and new factories in Texas and Germany will help the automaker meet strong global demand.
Moody's upgraded Tesla's long-term corporate family rating, citing a swiftly expanding presence in the U.S., Europe, and China. It expects nearly 1.4 million vehicle deliveries in 2022 with considerable investments in new production facilities in Berlin and Austin, along with an increase in production capacity in its existing plants in Fremont and Shanghai.
Tesla, on its part, said in early January it could start Model Y production at Austin over the next seven to ten days, according to analysis from Wedbush Securities. The Austin site will be key to meet demand for Model Ys, which are predicted to have a massive year in 2022.
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