Electric vehicles can take a victory lap with ICE dominance in the rear-view mirror
Jag_cz
Bank of America issued a strong statement on the electric vehicle market with an assertation that ICE dominance is over. The firm noted electric vehicles for the first time are expected to account for a larger portion of new model launches at 46% vs. ICE at 36% and hybrids representing another 18%.
Analyst John Murphy said an accelerated effort by many automakers in electric vehicles and launching standalone nameplates or even branded pillars is bucking the prior trend of automakers launching alternative powertrain variants on existing ICE models. Recent examples include General Motors (GM) using Cadillac as a spearhead for EVs, Ford Motor (F) rebranding the F-150 EV model as the F150 Lightning, as well as a number of new pillars under the European OEMs/brands including Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY) with the ID line, Audi with E-Tron, BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY) with the all-electric i line, and Mercedes-Benz Group (MBGFAF) with EQ models.
BofA's forecast is now for 1.6M electric vehicles to be sold in calendar year 2023/model year 2024, 2.2M EVs in calendar year 2024/model year 2025, 3.5M EVs in calendar year 2025/model year 2026, and 4.6M EVs in calendar year 2026/model year 2027.
The fresh analysis from BofA indicates that the onslaught of new models will take Tesla s (NASDAQ:TSLA) share of the electric vehicle market to 18% in 2026 from 62% in 2022. In addition, the share of incumbents vs. entrants (including TSLA) is seen shifting from 35%-65% currently to 70%-30% by 2026 with significant market share pickups anticipated for Ford (8% up to 14%), GM (5% to 14%) and Stellantis (STLA) (less than 1% to 8%).
The growing presence of the legacy automakers into the EV market will add pressure to startups such as Fisker (FSR), Rivian Automotive (RIVN), Lordstown Motors (RIDE), Faraday Future Intelligent Electric (FFIE), Polestar Automotive (PSNY), and Lucid Group (LCID).
Shares of Tesla (TSLA) gained 2.05% in premarket trading as the hot streak for the EV juggernaut continued.
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