U.S. online retail sales to cross $1T in 2022, online share seen at 22.1%: FTI Consulting
ArtistGNDphotography

FT Consulting report estimates U.S. online retail sales to touch $1.07T in 2022 despite difficult conditions in economy and personal finances of consumers.
The forecast represents incremental online retail sales of $256B which is above FTI Consulting's pre-pandemic forecast model, a 31% improvement.
FTI Consultingâs Retail & Consumer Products practice expects the online channelâs share of U.S. retail sales to touch 22.1% in 2022 compared to 20.8% in 2021 and 15.2% in 2019.
By 2030, U.S. online retail sales are seen exceeding $2T while total online market share will approach 31% by the end of the decade, compared to 21% at the end of 2021.
This represents a compounded annual growth rate for online sales of ~8.5% over the rest of the decade.
As per the Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce data, estimate of U.S. retail e-commerce sales for Q1 of 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation, but not for price changes, was $250B (+2.4% Q/Q).
E-commerce estimate increased 6.6% Q/Q with sales accounting for 14.3% of total sales.
Led by the pandemic, ~$400B was moved to the e-commerce channel in 2020 and 2021 thereby benefitting large omnichannel retailers due to outsized online sales growth in this period.
With shoppers returning to stores, the concern is if the accelerated e-commerce adoption and purchase volumes online would be able to sustain these gains.
"Online sales in the past two years were driven by necessity â shopping from home due to stay-at-home living and work conditions â as well as more discretionary income due to government stimulus, a speedy jobs recovery and increased savings. This will modulate over time, exacerbated by recent inflationary pressure, which is expected to slow total retail spending over 2H22," Leader of the Retail & Consumer Products practice at FTI Consulting, J.D. Wichser commented.
Recent BofA total credit and debit card spending rose 11% Y/Y in June with credit card spending rising 16% and debit card spending +6%.
Mastercard SpendingPulse data indicates consumer retail spending excluding automotive in June rose 9.5% Y/Y; it measures in-store and online retail sales across all forms of payment.
Insider Intelligence report indicates U.S. retail ecommerce sales to exceed $1T in 2022 (+9.4% from $960.4B last year); online sales are seen accounting for a rising share of the total retail sales with Amazon representing 37.8% of all digital sales, a greater share than the next 14 biggest ecommerce retailers combined.

Approx. $400B of this 2022's e-commerce sales will come from Amazon.
Retail stocks: (TGT), (WMT), (AMZN), (HD), (LOW), (BABA), (JD)