Apple is desperately trying to move away from China, but it won't happen any time soon
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As geopolitical tensions continue to rise, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and its manufacturing partners have been focusing on diversifying plants into other countries outside of China.
However, given how important the world's largest country by population is to the Tim Cook-led company, China is still likely to be a key focus for Apple (AAPL) investors over the next several years, according to analyst Wamsi Mohan of Bank of America said.
Mohan, who has a buy rating and $160-a-share price target on Apple's (AAPL) stock, noted that the recent COVID-19 lockdowns in Zhengzhou, China - where roughly 50% of iPhone production takes place - has understandably raised concern among investors. Some estimates have put the COVID-related lockdown for Hon Hai as having as much as a 30% impact in November, but it's possible that Apple (AAPL) could switch production to other facilities to mitigate any impact, Mohan pointed out.
"While the lockdowns pose increased headwinds to production, in our opinion, other facilities around Shenzhen can manage to compensate unless additional lockdown measures go in effect," Mohan explained.
Mohan noted that lead times on the iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max have risen by roughly a week, going to 25 days in most countries, including China, Japan, UK, Germany, France and Australia.
Meanwhile, Apple (AAPL) has increased its manufacturing presence beyond China, notably in India and Vietnam.
In 2017, starting with the iPhone SE, Apple's (AAPL) manufacturing partners started producing iPhone units in India. And in September, the tech giant confirmed it was producing some iPhone 14 units in the world's second most populated country.
Investment firm J.P. Morgan recently suggested Apple (AAPL) could shift a quarter of its iPhone production to India by 2025 and expected 5% of its iPhone production this year to move to the country.
The company has also asked suppliers to move some production of its AirPods and Beats headphones to India.
Vietnam has also become a major manufacturing hub for the Apple Watch and some production of the company's popular Mac computers, with Apple (AAPL) suppliers Luxshare Precision Industry and Foxconn recently testing production of the smartwatch in the northern part of the country.
Despite these efforts, Mohan noted that there is not likely to be a "rapid decoupling" from China anytime soon, given the presence of its manufacturing partners and increased focus on modular and automated design and assembly.
"In our opinion, there has to be a significantly higher focus on System on Chip and more modular design [and] automated assembly, which we do not expect will happen quickly," Mohan wrote. 
Given the outsized importance of Apple's (AAPL) financial impact on China, both for itself and third parties, is there a possibility China could retaliate against the world's largest company?
Not directly, Mohan believes.
If anything were to happen, especially in light of the U.S.'s move to restrict China's semiconductor industry, it's possible that local products may receive "favorable subsidies," which Mohan said could limit Apple's (AAPL) growth. However, China and Apple (AAPL) are joined at the hip for some time to come. 
"Given Apple remains a major employer indirectly in China and has close ties across city, province and central government levels, we expect Apple to continue to navigate the US-China cross currents as they have done exceedingly well over the past several years," Mohan posited. 
This week, Morgan Stanley wondered if the decline in Apple's (AAPL) App Store could have bottomed in September.