Auto sales are falling in the U.S. but profits are soaring
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Retail automobile sales in the U.S. are forecast to fall 27.8% in March to 1,044,464 units, according to a forecast from J.D. Power. New-vehicle total sales in Q1 are projected to fall 18.4% from last year's level to 3,228,000 units amid the tight supply due to the supply chain, COVID and Ukraine-Russia war issues that have held back production.
J.D. Power's breakdown: "Typically, March is a high-volume sales month with elevated promotional activity because it marks the end of the fiscal year for some manufacturers and the close of the first quarter for others. In March 2021, consumers purchased almost 1.4 million new vehicles at retail. This year, with fewer than 900,000 units in inventory, it will be impossible for the sale pace to even approach last yearâs level. Given the strong demand and extremely constrained inventory situation, it should be no surprise that manufacturer discounts are at their lowest level ever, while prices and profitability set records for the month of March."
Profitability is holding up in the sector. Incentive spending by manufacturers per vehicle is trending toward an all-time low of 2.3% of MSRP and is tracking to be down 68% from the level of last year. Also, the average transaction price is expected to be up 18% to $44,129. Total retailer profit per unit - inclusive of grosses and finance and insurance income - is on pace to reach $4,931 in March, an increase of $2,656 from a year ago. For Q1, aggregated retailer profit from new vehicle sales is projected to reach $14.2B, which is noted by J.D. Power to be an "astounding" 95% increase from Q1 of 2021.
Automaker stocks: General Motors (GM
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+0.8%) and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA
+4.0%).
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