CrowdStrike checks 'solid,' Q2 results may show seasonality: Barclays
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Investment firm Barclays said on Friday that checks into CrowdStrike Holdings (NASDAQ:CRWD) have been "solid" ahead of the company's second-quarter earnings report, slated to be released on August 30.
Analyst Saket Kalia, who has an overweight rating and $173 price target on CrowdStrike (CRWD), said the company is likely to generate a net new annual recurring revenue of roughly $193M in the quarter, but there could be a scenario where it surpasses $200M.
"We model net new ARR of ~$193M which combined with [first-quarter] net new equates to down 10% [year-over-year in the first-half of 2023] - our checks here were good (particularly in July), and so we could see an upside scenario of $200M+ which would equate to similar seasonality as [second-quarter] last year and represent the same 8% [year-over-year decline as seen in the first-quarter]," Kalia wrote in an investment note.
Additionally, Kalia said he is expecting revenue of roughly $722M and approximately a 17% operating margin, but there is the potential for sales to surpass $730M, citing "historically linearity" and perhaps another 100 basis points for operating margins. 
"CRWD was GAAP profitable last quarter, and we would not be surprise to see that continue through this year," Kalia explained. 
A consensus of analysts estimate CrowdStrike (CRWD) will earn 56 cents per share on $724.43M in revenue.
Kalia also noted that the second-half net new ramp "admittedly does not look easy," with guidance implying roughly 56$ of net new annual recurring revenue in fiscal 2023, but there are a couple of reasons it could reach that figure, including a "strong pipeline of deals" with8 or more modules, and implied new business that assumes 120% to 125% of net recurring revenue. 
Lastly, Kalia said the company may have more to say on public, unconfirmed reports of it acquiring Bionic AI for roughly $200M to $300M to help out in the application security posture management space.
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