Morgan Stanley expects Moderna to lower 2023 guidance on Q3 call
Maddie Meyer

Morgan Stanley pointed to a worse-than-expected market opportunity and an overly bullish consensus to argue on Tuesday that Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) could trim its 2023 forecast for COVID boosters during its upcoming Q3 earnings call.
The analyst Matthew Harrison with an Equal Rating on MRNA, notes that Wall Street projects the company to report ~$10B in COVID vaccine revenues even as its ~$2B confirmed orders based on the publicly disclosed contracts for 2023 stand below the consensus.
"Investors are concerned about management's ability to bracket consensus expectations of ~$10B in COVID vaccine revenues," the analyst wrote, adding that MRNA's 2023 revenue guidance remains an overhang.
Harrison argues that the management will opt to reset heady expectations on the Q3 call ahead of data readouts from Phase 2 trial for personalized cancer vaccine and Phase 3 trials for RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) and flu vaccines.
"We believe it might be prudent to lower expectations now as it provides better risk/reward into pipeline catalysts," Harrison wrote, slashing the price target on MRNA to $175 from $197 per share.
Moderna (MRNA) is scheduled to report its Q3 2022 results on Nov. 03 before the opening bell.