Tesla, ARKK, bitcoin close to cracking as S&P heads to 3,400 - BTIG
mbbirdy

The S&P 500 (SP500) (NYSEARCA:SPY) will not see a V-shaped bounce off its 200-week moving average like it did in 2018, according to BTIG.
The 200-week MA, which currently sits around 3,594 or about 1.2% below current levels, is often considered a dividing line between a market correction and a recession decline.
"While it may have felt that way after the Monday-Tuesday rally, our sense is we break lower this week and head towards the 3,400 level later this month," chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky said. "We still see zero panic in terms of the VIX curve, but as we have seen throughout history, this can change quickly."
"Despite the ongoing bearish sentiment this year, the AAII stock allocation survey shows a much different picture," he noted. "The total stock allocation is still 63.4%. The spread between the stock allocation and % bulls is ~36%. This compares to -7% at the 2002 lows and ~3% at the 2009 lows."
It's likely that long/short momentum will need to stop outperforming the market before there is a durable bottom.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), ARK Innovation (NYSEARCA:ARKK) and bitcoin (BTC-USD) are all "somewhat related" and close to "cracking key levels," - TSLA at $220, ARKK at $35 and BTC at $18K, Krinsky said.
TSLA has a big volume pocket below $220, he said.
"ARKK is now threatening the $35 level for the fifth time back to 2018," he added. "The last four tests held, but now we have the biggest component (TSLA), a ~9% weight, potentially breaking multi-year support."
"Bitcoin has remained resilient over the last few months clinging to the prior 2017 highs (~18-20K)," he said. "We think it's close to breaking support, however, which would open the door down to ~14,000."