Charter dips as Wolfe cuts to Underperform on dim subscriber outlook
Charter Communications (NASDAQ:CHTR) is 1.1% lower today after a cut to Underperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research, which sees competition in cable getting still hotter.
There's risk to near-term and long-term cable estimates, even with "conservative" market share expectations for fixed wireless from telecoms, analyst John Janedis and team write.

They're estimating only 9 million cable net adds through calendar 2030 for cablecos, vs. consensus for 8.2 million net adds in the next four years; Wolfe is cutting its 2022 estimate "modestly," noting 2023-2024 is a "tipping point."
Meanwhile, competitive pressure through fiber overbuilds and fixed wireless investments from telcos is largely "outside of their control," Wolfe notes.
Cable multiples will be subject to rerating - possibly to "wireless-like" multiples of 6-7x from the current 8-10x - due to a number of factors, as "(1) competition intensifies, (2) b-band becomes more commoditized, (3) penetration approaches maturity and (4) cable/mobile converge."
It says of about 35 million net broadband adds left up for grabs over the long term (until 2030), it expects major cable grabs 9 million, with fiber-to-the-home taking 16 million and fixed wireless taking 10 million.
Its new price target for Charter is $621, down from a previous $712 and implying 4% downside.