Tesla Q1 preview: Focus on margin profile and production status
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Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is scheduled to announce Q1 earnings results on Wednesday, April 20th, after market close.
The consensus EPS Estimate is $2.27 (vs. $0.93 in Q121) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $17.84B (+71.7% Y/Y).
Looking back, the EV maker reported better-than-expected numbers in its Q4 results, racking up $2.9B in non-GAAP net income and $17.72B in revenue. It produced 305,840 vehicles (+70% Y/Y) and delivered 308,650 vehicles (+71%) in the quarter.
Reiterating multi-year deliveries view for 50% average annual growth, the management had at the time noted that "we plan to grow our manufacturing capacity as quickly as possible [...] our own factories have been running below capacity for several quarters as supply chain became the main limiting factor, which is likely to continue through 2022."
Tesla set a quarterly delivery record in Q1, shipping 310,048 vehicles - up 67.8% from 184,800 vehicles shipped in the same period last year. However, the shipments trailed analysts' reported consensus estimate of 317,000 vehicles who had warned that chip shortage would hurt TSLA's Q1 output.
Wedbush analysts called the deliveries "better than feared," adding that they may help offset concerns from the shutdown of its Shanghai factory. The brokerage maintained an Outperform rating on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and assigned a price target of $1,400 following the quarterly deliveries update.
Investors will be looking at the company's margin profile and how commodity price inflation will impact its bottom line. Tesla (TSLA) also began to build vehicles in its Berlin and Austin factories during Q1, so those start-up costs could hurt in the near term.
According to Bloomberg Intelligence, "With a more intense government regulatory and subsidy environment in U.S. and China -- where Tesla currently makes its vehicles -- the companyâs next phase of growth depends primarily on expanding capacity in Europe where its new Berlin factory is now operational."
Investors would also be keen on Tesla's (TSLA) current production status, as its Shanghai gigafactory was shut down since late March amid a local coronavirus outbreak. The facility reportedly resumed production, but the closure is likely to meaningfully impact the company's Q2 results. Tudor Pickering analyst Matt Portillo suggests "Tesla's second-quarter estimates are likely to be "slashed" given the electric-vehicle maker's Shanghai plant has been shut down from Covid lockdowns since March 28." 
A comparative price return analysis against other EV makers:

Recent SA analyses on the stock has been somewhat neutral to bearish, with columnist David Trainer laying out a "Strong Sell" thesis for the stock. Another SA analysis lists down the various material risks to Tesla, including its overvaluation.
Over the last 2 years, TSLA has beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 100% of the time.
Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 11 upward revisions and 5 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 9 upward revisions and 4 downward.