Investors may be sleeping on the potential for a damaging U.S. rails strike
shaunl

The risk of a rail strike in December is growing after some unions voted down the deal that the White House brokered in September. Even a strike of just a few days could impact the supply of fuel, automobiles, chemicals, and consumer products, while a longer strike would have the potential to cut into Q4 GDP.
Evercore ISI analyst Jonathan Chappell warned that U.S. equities are acting like there is no chance of a strike when the probability is not zero. The firm's D.C. policy team still believes Congress will not act as quickly as hoped if the four unions that voted not to ratify the labor deal play hardball. Based on the performance of stocks tied closest to rail transport, investors expect the issue to be resolved without a strike. 
The current position of the White House official is that while a rail shutdown in the U.S. is unacceptable due to the harm such an outcome would inflict on jobs and businesses, the best option is still for the parties involved to resolve the standoff themselves. On Capitol Hill, the Republican proposal is anticipated to be a bill to force unions to accept the deal they were offered, but it is unclear if Democrats will back that strong of a stance against organized labor.
The earliest a rails strike could occur would be December 5.
Related Tickers: Canadian Pacific Railway (NYSE:CP), Canadian National Railway (NYSE:CNI), CSX Corp. (NASDAQ:CSX), Union Pacific (NYSE:UNP), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B), Norfolk Southern (NYSE:NSC).