More market share losses ahead for eBay - Morgan Stanley
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In a note assessing eBayâs (NASDAQ:EBAY) Q4 earnings report, Morgan Stanley analyst Lauren Schenk advised the companyâs market share in e-commerce is destined to erode further.

Shares of the San Jose-based online auction company fell 5.69% in afternoon trading on Thursday despite narrowly beating Q4 expectations on Wednesday evening. The companyâs vague guidance appeared to arouse some suspicion among analysts, including Schenk.

âAssuming '22 seasonality carries through '23, implies a -5% GMV decline in '23, which would leave '23 GMV below 2019 levels. This in our view solidifies our share loss thesis as it is difficult to identify any eCommerce business that will be smaller in '23 than it was in '19,â she wrote on Thursday. âFocus categories continue to perform better than total company, but were only slightly positive in 4Q despite significant investments, and enthusiast buyers continue to decline.â

She reiterated a Sell-equivalent rating and assigned a $32 price target to the stock.

Truist analyst Youssef Squali voiced more optimism on âenthusiastâ categories, but likewise noted the likelihood that market share losses to younger e-commerce players will continue.

âThe very gradual progress and macro headwinds are likely to keep GMV growth negative in FY23/flat in FY24, causing eBay to cede more eCommerce share to faster growing peers,â he told clients on Thursday.

Squali maintained a Hold rating on the stock, but raised his price target to $50 from $48. 
Read more on the more positive results reported by Etsy.