Type 2 diabetes market to surpass $136B in 2029 from new therapies, increased diagnoses
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The market for type 2 diabetes (T2D) drugs is set to explode, reaching $136.2B in 2029, according to a new report from GlobalData.
For comparison, the market was $45.9B in 2019.
The data and analytics firm predicts that the market will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 11.5%.
Growth will be generated by the introduction of new blockbuster drugs in the coming years as well as more patients diagnosed with T2D in major markets.
GlobalData's new report, Type 2 Diabetes Market Size and Trends, mentions Novo Nordisk's (NVO) once weekly insulin icodec, a basal insulin, and Eli Lilly's (NYSE:LLY) basal insulin FC, also dosed once-weekly. Insulin icodec is slated for launch in 2024, with basal insulin FC two years later.
Both companies have other candidates in late-stage development. Novo (NVO) has Icosema, a combination of insulin icodec and semaglutide, in phase 3. In December, Lilly (LLY) said it would advance orforglipron, an oral GLP-1 non-peptide agonist, into phase 3 in 2023. 
Lilly's (LLY) GLP-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA)/gastric inhibitory polypeptide (GIP) receptor agonist Mounjaro (tirzepatide), approved in May 2022, has had a strong uptake. It recorded $97.3M in US sales in Q3 2022. 
In Q3 -- the latest quarter for which data is available -- Novo (NVO) recorded ~DKK101.8B (~$14.8B) in revenue in its diabetes franchise. Lilly's (LLY) top-selling diabetes drug, Trulicity (dulaglutide), brought in ~$1.9B.
Global Data Pharma Analyst Akash Patel said that once-weekly basal insulins are likely to gain significant market uptake as their efficacy is on par, or even better than, existing basal insulins such as glargine and lispro, and with better patient compliance as they are taken less frequently.
Patel added that Novo's (NVO) Victoza (liraglutide), Sanofi's (SNY) Lantus (insulin glargine) and Merck's (NYSE:MRK) Januvia (sitagliptin) have all lost market share due to more convenient dosing with newer therapies.
He added that doctors' preference for sodium-glucose linked transporter-2 inhibitor (SGLT-2) therapies including AstraZeneca's (NASDAQ:AZN) Farxiga (dapagliflozin) and Lilly (LLY)/Boehringer Ingelheim's Jardiance (empagliflozin) because of their ability to also address cardiorenal comorbidities is leading to the erosion of the use of older drugs.
A GlobalData report in November 2022 found that Novo Nordisk (NVO) is set to continue its lead over Lilly (LLY) in the T2D market.