Where next for the Airbnb share price ahead of its Q4 earnings
A leading company that helps facilitate property rental bookings worldwide, Airbnb (NASDAQ:ABNB) is set to report Q4 earnings results on Tuesday, February 15th, after market close.
Analysts on Wall Street expect Airbnb to report Q4 revenue of $1.46 billion, up 69.9% Y/Y and earnings per share of -$0.03.
The fortunes of travel stocks have been tied up in the surge or fading of COVID cases across the globe. In recent trading, ABNB shares have been almost trading flat over the past month.
Potential 2022 catalysts for travel stocks: Rebounding travel market post-Omicron; Spring Break and other holiday travel; recovery in international markets; recovery in business travel; increase in hosts; app enhancements. 



Key metrics

Investors looking to gauge the travel rebound can look to Airbnb's gross booking value as an indicator. In its most recent quarter, ended September 30, Airbnb reported a gross booking value of $11.9 billion, up 49% Y/Y. 
Peer comparison
Peer, EXPE rose 3% after Q4 earnings topped estimates.

ABNB enters the Q4 print trading with a $104.28 bln market capitalization at roughly 195x forward earnings estimates vs peers like EXPE at 31.1x, BKNG at 29.4x, TCOM at 187x. 



Earning history
ABNB shares popped 3% after reporting its Q3 results amid best-ever business quarter. In its Q3 report, the company expected Q4 revenue to be between $1.39 billion and $1.48 billion, higher then 2020. The company also expects the number of nights booked, and gross booking value to surpass those of the fourth quarter a year ago.



Analyst recommendations
BTIG cut its rating on ABNB to a Neutral rating after having it slotted at Buy and called out a fair value of $73 to $150. The main concern is the post-Omicron outlook and what BTIG see as an aggressive consensus with Q2 of this year a potential flashpoint.


Gordon Haskett drops its rating on the online travel stock to Hold from Buy. The firm warns that many of the expected near-term and long-term catalysts for Airbnb are already priced in to the current share price.


Piper downgrades ABNB chiefly on the basis of valuation. "ABNB remains a top-tier asset, but we believe the setup looks less favorable into â22," notes analyst Thomas Champion.







Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 0 upward revisions and 2 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 1 upward revision and 5 downward.