Valuations on Lucid and Rivian are not so crazy - Redburn
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The high-flying market caps of $74B on Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID) and $75B on Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN) can make sense on a detailed valuation check, according to a new research report from London-based Redburn.
Analyst Charles Coldicott says the fair values derived by discounted cash flow analysis are $39 for Lucid Group (LCID
-0.3%) and $141 for Rivian Automotive (RIVN
+0.6%).

Coldicott admits the valuations seem crazy on the surface, but he crunches the numbers to back into the high targets.
"We expect Lucid to ramp up volumes to 0.6 million by 2030, representing revenue of $34B, with an EBITDA margin of 18.1%. Similarly, Rivian may reach 1.5 million units by 2030, or $78B revenue and, we estimate, an EBITDA margin of 17.5%. Tesla, $1.1 trillion market cap, sold 960,000 units last year at an estimated adj. EBITDA margin of 21.5%."
By 2030, that leaves Lucid and Rivian approaching an EV/sales multiple of 1.5X and EV/EBITDA of less than 10X, levels which Coldicott observes that BMW, Ford and Volkswagen have all enjoyed for long periods of their history.
"And yet in Lucid and Rivian, investors can access much stronger growth outlooks (even still by 2030), industry-leading technology and businesses likely to be structurally more profitable than the status quo."
Both Lucid (LCID) and Rivian (RIVN) are expected by Redburn to leave an indelible mark on the automotive industry over the next decade.
Rivian Automotive (RIVN) lands a Buy rating from Redburn due to the upside to the $141 price target and Lucid Group (LCID) is slotted at Neutral with it trading above the fair value mark.
See a chart of the market caps of LCID, RIVN, GM, F, NIO and FSR over the last few months.