Tesla will report Q3 deliveries next week with extra wildcards in the mix
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Analysts continue to prep for Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) Q3 deliveries and production report that is due to be reported sometime during the first few days of October. The range for the deliveries estimates is wider than in the last few quarters, with more wildcards in the mix.
RBC Capital Markets estimated Tesla (TSLA) deliveries of 462K in Q3, up 1.9% vs. the prior estimate of 454K and matching the consensus mark. Analyst Tom Narayan based the forecast on registration data and app downloads. "We model production 20k below deliveries due to this dynamic. This is an indication that demand continues to grow, although not nearly the same rate of change as we observed over the past 12 months," noted Narayan.
Deutsche Bank thinks Tesla (TSLA) could miss Street Q2 deliveries expectations, but thinks the bigger issue is that there is meaningful downside risk to 2024 consensus numbers due to limited volume growth next year for the EV giant.
For Q3, Deutsche Bank lowered its deliveries expectations to 440K units vs. 455K prior estimate. The sequential drop in deliveries is tied to global plant downtime the company has taken in the summer for upgrades and Project Highland.
Looking further ahead, Deutsche Bank pointed to downside to expectations for 2024 on both growth and earnings after Tesla (TSLA) indicated recently at an investor meeting that it is no longer planning to expand output at Austin and Berlin factories to 10K per week, providing only incremental volume from these two factories next year. The base case from Deutsche Bank now is for Tesla (TSLA) to guide to ~2.1M deliveries next year vs current consensus of 2.3M units. "On the bright side, with the company not trying to push as much volume, there could potentially be less pricing pressure next year," noted DB.
Baird analyst Ben Kallo also noted that the temporary factory shutdowns during Q3 is likely to impact TSLA's deliveries tally. Of note, Tesla (TSLA) halted production in Texas to upgrade and retool Model Y and Cybertruck assembly lines. The Austin-based company also temporarily paused production at the Fremont Factory in July. Despite those slowdowns, Baird forecasts that Tesla (TSLA) will announce deliveries of 493,200 to top the consensus expectation
During Q2, Tesla (TSLA) delivered 466,140 electric vehicles to easily beat estimates for around 445,000 units. The company produced 479,700 vehicles in the same period. In the first quarter of 2023, Tesla delivered 422,875 vehicles and produced 440,808 units.
Shares of Tesla (TSLA) rose 0.55% premarket to $245.47 vs. the 52-week trading range of $101.81 to $299.29.

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