Airbnb is downgraded at BTIG on concerns over aggressive growth expectations
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BTIG cut its rating on Airbnb (NASDAQ:ABNB) to a Neutral rating after having it slotted at Buy.
The firm pointed to concerns over consensus expectations and the sustainability of the trading multiple if growth is slowing.
In particular, analyst Jake Fuller and team noted ABNB has seen a much smaller Omicron impact than the other online travel stocks, but still see downside with the Q4 of 2021 and Q1 of 2022 consensus numbers amid aggressive post-Omicron expectations.
The main concern with ABNB cited was the post-Omicron outlook and what BTIG see as an aggressive consensus with Q2 of this year a potential flashpoint.
"We expect room night growth to slow to +13% y/y (+12% vs. 2019) on a hard comp and look for ADR to be -10% y/y (+25% vs. 2019) with geographic mix shift, getting us to single-digit bookings growth at +2% y/y (+16% vs. 2019) for 2Q22. Consensus has room nights at +31% y/y (+30% vs. 2019) and bookings +13% y/y (+54% vs. 2019). To go from below 2019 room nights in 1Q22 to 30% above in 2Q22 would require a bigger q/q gain in room nights than we have seen at any point in the recovery."
The firm pulled its price target of $190 on Airbnb (ABNB) but called out a fair value of $73 to $150. See the advanced trading chart on Airbnb.