Ubisoft's woes shouldn't ding rivals EA and Take-Two, BofA says
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Ubisoft stock fell 14% in France Thursday, its first action there after a major late Wednesday financial update that saw the videogame maker increasing writedowns, canceling more projects and cutting guidance.
Foreign shares on pink sheets (OTCPK:UBSFF) are down 4.8% Thursday, while its American Depositary Receipts are calmer in U.S. trading - (OTCPK:UBSFY) +0.5% - alongside a reaction from BofA that suggests the guidance shouldn't be read through to rival publishers.
The "deep cuts" to guidance were a surprise, analyst Omar Dessouky said, but the company's back catalog was still "healthy" with "notably robust" activity on Rainbow Six Siege, "great momentum" on Assassin's Creed, and some generally solid performance on live games.
Dessouky paid particular attention to comments from Ubisoft CEO Yves Guillemot, who says that as a potential recession hits consumer spending, "mega brands" will take a higher share of spending vs. more obscure titles and newer launches.
That validates Buy ratings for rival publishers Electronic Arts (NASDAQ:EA) and Take-Two Interactive Software (NASDAQ:TTWO), which have two "mega brands" each, Dessouky noted. And most investors he talked to don't see a negative read-through.
"We forecast high-single growth for EA in FY24 (driven by a 70% FIFA & Live Services concentration), and 48% growth in TTWOâs PC/Console revenues (driven by several launches from franchises and studio leaders with long-standing reputations as well as steady performance from NBA 2K and GTA Online)," Dessouky said.
On Wednesday, J.P. Morgan reviewed the videogame sector and found some specific upside to look forward to even while downgrading Nintendo and Konami.