Will Vale report Q1 earnings beat despite lower production?
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Vale (NYSE:VALE) is scheduled to announce Q1 earnings results on Wednesday, Apr. 27, after market close.
Consensus EPS estimate is $0.89 and revenue estimate is $11.63B (-8.1% Y/Y). 
Over the last 2 years, VALE has beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time and revenue estimates 25% of the time.
Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 3 upward revisions and 1 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 2 upward revisions.
VALE reported lower Q1 iron ore production due to heavy rainfall in Minas Gerais and major maintenance. XP Investimentos said the production results should help support iron ore prices and realized premiums with higher pellet sales. 
VALE said Russia's invasion of Ukraine will likely raise the premium steelmakers pay for iron ore pellets starting in Q2, as well as lift nickel prices, which rose 56.2% YTD.
VALE reported Q4 profit beat helped by forex gains. But investors were disappointed by lower operating income, weak cash flow generation and higher provisions related to two dam disasters. 
HSBC upgraded VALE to Buy as prices for its main metals will likely remain strong given ongoing supply issues, higher inflation and U.S. dollar strength. 
SA contributor William Meyers, in a recent bullish analysis, said and setbacks in iron ore production won't change long-term demand.
However, SA contributor Hale Stewart said it's time to sell VALE due to the Fed tightening rates and bearish economic indicators. 
Other news:
Reuters reported that J&F Investimentos is in advanced talks to buy VALE's manganese and iron mines in Mato Grosso do Sul. 
Tesla (TSLA) inked a supply deal with VALE before the Ukraine war to ensure nickel supply amid a rally in the metal's price.
VALE stock gained 15.2% YTD.