Strong previews point 'John Wick 4' toward $65M-plus opening at box office
A sequel-filled March box office is preparing for a better weekend this time around, as momentum builds for Keanu Reeves' fourth visit to the well of John Wick.
John Wick: Chapter 4 (NYSE:LGF.A) (NYSE:LGF.B) is earning the best reviews of the four-movie assassin franchise, suggesting it's set to inject some life into theatrical receipts after the expensive Shazam! Fury of the Gods (NASDAQ:WBD) got off to a starkly disappointing start.
The new John Wick drew $8.9M in Thursday previews, a strong total and a franchise record (the third film pulled $5.9M in such previews) - and that suggests it's headed for a domestic opening of $65M-$70M, and a worldwide weekend topping $100M.
Unlike many franchises, John Wick seems to be building strength as it goes on. The first film, from 2014, grossed $43M; John Wick: Chapter 2 in 2017 reached $92M domestic; and John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum in 2019 grossed $171M, and a worldwide total of $327.8M.
The film - and what it means for smaller studio Lions Gate (LGF.A) (LGF.B) - led Benchmark to reiterate a strongly bullish view on the company, saying it's the unusual film that's "significant to perception of a studio stock."
Meanwhile, after its stumble out of the gate, the new Shazam is likely to shed several million dollars in its sophomore outing - and there may be similar drops for Scream VI (PARA) (PARAA) and Creed III (United Artists/AMZN).
And with a strong action-film opening, John Wick may hold up well in a second weekend as well: Next Friday will bring wide releases of drama A Good Person (United Artists/AMZN) and Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PARA) (PARAA).
Cinema tickers: AMC Entertainment (AMC); Cineworld (OTCPK:CNNWQ); Cinemark (CNK); (IMAX); Marcus (MCS); Reading International (RDI); Cineplex (CGX:CA); National CineMedia (NCMI).