Riskiest defensive stocks as a recession looms
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UBS screens for the consumer names that would normally do well in a downturn, but carry risks.
The S&P 500 (SP500) (SPY) finds itself in bear market territory and investors have turned to defensive sectors, according to BofA's survey of client flows.
"We identify stocks within the S&P 1500 Consumer Staples Index (SP1500-3010) which may not be as defensive as commonly perceived," strategist Keith Parker wrote in a note. "We include stocks whose inventory minus sales growth y/y is >0% and whose defensive score based on our proprietary framework ranks in the bottom 50th pctl."
The stocks are:

J.M Smucker (SJM), Q1 '22 inventory vs. sales growth y/y 10%, defensive score 41%, pricing power z-score 0.05
Tyson Foods (TSN), 5%, 44%, -0.13
Boston Beer (SAM), 22%, 20%, 0.28
MGP Ingredients (MGPI), 10%, 30%, -0.81
Ingredion (INGR), %, 43%, -0.16
Hormel (HRL), 9%, 43%, -0.06
Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), 10%, 37%, -0.12
B&G Food (BGS), 18%, 1%, -0.1
e.l.f. Beauty (ELF), 35%, 18%, -0.06
Celsius Holdings (CELH), 233%, 7%, 0.06
Molson Coors (TAP), 9%, 28%, 0.12
Edgewell Personal Care (EPC), 16%, 21%, 0.04
Energizer (ENR), 42%, 44%, -0.11
Kraft Heinz (KHC), 21%, 7%, -0.09
Simply Good Foods (SMPL), 7%, 35%, 0.18

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