Adobe Preview: Earnings ahead, but analysts are more excited for the Max event
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Investors will be eyeing talk around AI when Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) reports earnings on Thursday after the close.
But really what theyâll be looking forward to is ADBEâs Max conference in October.
Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley both agreed that the event will be a more meaningful catalyst for the San Jose, Calif.-based company than third-quarter results.
âHeading into the MAX conference next month, we expect the company to highlight several key areas, including: 1) GenAI - building upon existing Firefly capabilities, more broadly across the CC portfolio; 2) Express updates - a key component to expanding its potential user base and defending vs. Canva, w/partners suggesting more interest recently; and 3) content supply chain - further expanding the product road map that ties together all of its offerings (DX & DM),â Wells Fargo analysts led by Michael Turrin wrote in a note.
The firm maintained an Overweight rating on ADBE and increased its price target to $625 from $600.
âWe see Q3 as a fairly straightforward setup,â Wells Fargo said, noting that demand has been improving and checks have been consistently solid.
Estimates
For the third quarter, EPS is expected to total $3.98 while revenue is estimated at $4.87B.
Morgan Stanley noted that with shares up about 60% year-to-date, investor sentiment is âconstructiveâ on ADBE's ability to monetize GenAI, though the firm doesnât expect to hear anything from the company until the Max event.
The firm noted that Adobe (ADBE) shares have been outperforming the median large cap software stock by more than 20% year-to-date on AI excitement, and it sees âmultiple ways to monetize GenAI.â
Among them, Morgan Stanley said investors are focused on two key questions: How much of a pricing uplift can Adobe push through on the flagship applications, and What will the margin impacts be?
âWe would expect to hear about some of the early momentum that Adobe is seeing around Firefly,â the analysts said.
Underlying demand trends are solid amid the momentum from Adobe Express and the current guide appears conservative versus historical seasonality. Morgan Stanley expects a third-quarter beat more in-line with the historical average.
For the second quarter, Adobe (ADBE) beat estimates and bumped its fiscal outlook higher, with EPS expected between $15.65 and $15.75 per share up from a prior range of $15.30 to $15.60 per share. The company also raised its full-year revenue outlook, as it now expects full-year sales to fall within a range of $19.25B to $19.35B, up from a prior range between $19.1B and $19.3B.
Shares are up nearly 2% on Wednesday.

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