Tesla earnings are on tap: Expect volatility with all eyes on margins, deliveries guidance and Gigafactory updates
Justin Sullivan

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) will report earnings on October 19 in what is likely to be one of the more closely-watched reports of the earnings season.
The consensus revenue estimate for the quarter is $22.0B and EPS of $1.01 is anticipated by analysts. Tesla (TSLA) has exceeded revenue expectations in eight straight quarters, missing EPS estimates only once in that span.
Investors will be looking for the latest updates from Tesla (TSLA) on production out of the Berlin and Austin Gigafactories. Other key topics include the color on the positive benefits of the Inflation Reduction Act, pricing expectations, FX pressures, commodity inflation, future Gigafactory plans, the read-through on China and confirmation if the multi-year deliveries growth forecast for 50% growth is still in play despite the global macro headwinds. A wildcard would be an update on the Cybertruck or new model tease.
On Wall Street, Citi thinks Tesla (TSLA) shares could bounce off a Q3 beat and reassuring commentary from management on Q4 and 2023. In particular, the firm is looking to the update on the IRA impact and cost/unit outlook relative to pricing. While a short-term bounce is seen as likely, Citi is not convinced that the Q3 update alone can fully address macro concerns into Q4 and 2023, so the stock is seen potentially reverting to trading on macro/industry data points.
Wedbush Securities said it is clear Tesla (TSLA) had some delivery challenges in the quarter with some isolated soft spots in China. Analyst Dan Ives is looking for some clarity on the conference call on the full-year deliveries guidance and outlook for 2023. "We believe the unit set-up into 4Q is very robust and could approach massive numbers that are in the 475k+ range," he previewed.
Evercore ISI thinks Tesla's (TSLA) conference call should be one of the more highly anticipated calls in some time. The firm thinks the headline consensus mark for Q3 is both high and stale given the deliveries miss. Key pullouts from the report will be if TSLA holds the line on automotive gross margin of 27% and the update on Berlin battery production.
Wells Fargo tipped Tesla (TSLA) for a slight earnings beat with pricing anticipated to help boost automotive margin above expectations.
Seeking Alpha authors are divided on Tesla (TSLA) with 12 Buy-equivalent ratings stacking up against 10 Hold-equivalent ratings and 6 Sell-equivalent ratings.
The Seeking Alpha Quant Rating on Tesla (TSLA) is at Hold, but the score of 3.40 is the highest of any electric vehicle stock.
Shares of Tesla (TSLA) are down more than 20% since the end of the last quarter. Tesla also trades well below both its 100-day and 200-day moving averages. For earnings on Wednesday, options trading is implying a post-earnings move of 7% up or down after the report drops, which is more implied volatility than normal.