COVID-19 shot sales, performance of non-COVID portfolio in focus for Moderna's Q1 earnings
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Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) is scheduled to announce Q1 earnings results on Wednesday, May 4th, before market open.
The consensus EPS Estimate is $5.62 (vs. $2.84 in prior year) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $4.43B (vs. $1.94B in prior year).
Over the last 1 year, MRNA has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 75% of the time.
Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 1 upward revision and 3 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 0 upward revisions and 5 downward.

MRNA stock added ~15% in late February after the company posted a strong Q4 2021 earnings beat and announced a new share buyback program worth $3B.
However, MRNA, along with some other COVID-19 vaccine makers, are in the red for the year so far, coinciding with a significant fall in coronavirus cases globally since January's Omicron wave. The chart below shows the YTD price return performance of MRNA, Novavax (NVAX), Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech (BNTX):

COVID-19 vaccine Spikevax:

"The absence of major COVID-19 cases may hurt demand for vaccines, which may lead to lower-than-guided product sales for Moderna in 2022," said Zacks in a pre-earnings note. "Investors will likely ask questions regarding product sales guidance in the absence of significant COVID-19 cases," it added.
The Zacks consensus estimate for Spikevax product sales is $4B.
Moderna had said that it had signed advanced purchase agreements for 2022 for product sales of about $19B and about $3B in options including for any potential updated COVID-19 vaccine booster candidates.
Moderna had also said that it believed the SARS-CoV-2 virus will evolve to an endemic phase in 2022 and as a result the company expected sales to be larger in H2 than in H1.
Pfizer (PFE) on Tuesday opted to keep 2022 outlook for its COVID-19 vaccine Comirnaty and antiviral Paxlovid unchanged.
MRNA last week submitted a request to the U.S. FDA for an emergency use nod of its COVID-19 shot in children aged six months to six years.

Investors will also be looking out for any updates and commentary from Moderna on its non-COVID portfolio.