Will Vale report earnings miss in Q2 amid lower output?
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Vale (NYSE:VALE) is scheduled to announce Q2 results on Thursday, Jul. 28, after market close.
Consensus EPS estimate is $0.80 and consensus revenue estimate is $11.61B (-30.4% Y/Y).
Over the last 2 years, VALE has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time and revenue estimates 63% of the time.
Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 1 downward revision and revenue estimates have seen 1 downward revision.
Investors will look out for guidance as iron and copper prices have been hit by macro uncertainty and weak demand in China.
Q2 production:

VALE's Q2 iron ore production missed estimates and it lowered its iron ore and copper output guidance for the year.
The lackluster results risk delaying a potential sale/spinoff of VALE's copper and nickel unit that could be worth $40B, Bloomberg reported.
Banco Bradesco BBI said the process of stabilizing VALE's base metals operations remains rocky amid operational setbacks and extended maintenance.
Banco BTG Pactual said VALE's discount to Australian mining peers may expand, given "lower confidence on operational stability/execution".

Q1 recap:

VALE stock rose after the miner reported Q1 profit that topped estimates.
The firm approved its biggest-ever stock buyback program, which Alpha Key Capital Management said is a clear sign VALE believes its shares are trading at cheap levels.

Recent news:

Wolfe Research remains cautious on VALE, citing the likelihood of sequentially higher costs.
VALE and BHP (BHP) said they are not interested in selling their Samarco Mineracao JV, according to Reuters, after reports that Companhia Siderurgica Nacional (SID) was drafting an offer.
VALE launched a venture capital initiative to invest $100M in sustainable mining startups, Bloomberg reported.
VALE inked a long-term contract to supply Tesla (TSLA) with nickel; details were not provided.
The SEC said it was suing VALE over how it misled investors regarding mining safety practices before a 2019 tailings dam collapse that killed 270 people, WSJ reported.

SA contributor Bram de Haas in a bullish analysis said VALE has become quite attractive after a recent selloff.

Shares of VALE declined ~4% YTD.