GM, Hyundai and Tesla are forecast to be U.S. auto market share winners in November
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TrueCar expects total new vehicle industry sales to increase 7% in November to 1,136,329 units. The month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate for total light vehicle industry sales is an estimated 14M, up 9% from the SAAR rate a year ago. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 954,799 units, about even from a year ago and down about 3% from October.
"Inventories are on pace for a fourth consecutive month of double-digit increases. Consumers, however, continue to face affordability challenges and high monthly payments, keeping many on the sidelines," noted TrueCar analyst Zack Krelle, "To maintain sales momentum, manufacturers appear to be shifting some of the new supply to non-retail sales, he added.
One notable development during the months is a shift into more fleets sales. November fleet sales are estimated to be up 68% year-over-year and up 21% over the October level.
Average transaction price for new vehicles is projected to be up 3% from a year ago and down 1% from October. The average interest rate on new vehicles is 6.6% compared to October at 6.3% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 9.8%.
The manufacturers with the biggest year-over-year jumps in new vehicle sales are forecast to be General Motors (GM) +39%, Hyundai (OTCPK:HYMLF) +22%, and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) +17% - while Stellantis (STLA) -16%, Ford (F) -9%, and Honda (HMC) -7% are expected to see the biggest year-over-year drops for the month. The timing of model introductions between years can impact the comparisons significantly.