iPhone 15 lead times extend to 'record highs,' Morgan Stanley says
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Investment firm Morgan Stanley said on Monday that lead times for the Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone 15 have hit "record highs" across North America as of Friday, which the firm said is encouraging given the somewhat tepid response to the unveiling.
Analyst Erik Woodring, who has an overweight rating and $215 price target on Apple (AAPL), said that the next two weeks will be "critical" to determine the cycle and iPhone builds and revenue for the coming quarter, but that he is encouraged.
"Looking at past cycles, new model iPhone lead times generally extend in the first week after pre-orders begin before starting to level off/contract," Woodring wrote in an investor note. 
"Therefore, it will be critical to observe how iPhone 15 lead times trend this week and into early October when iPhone 15 Pro Max supply improves, and Apple adjusts its build forecast based on early pre-orders demand." 
Woodring also pointed out that iPhone 15 Pro Max lead times are now 45 days in the U.S. and 47 days internationally, having increased between four and six days since last Tuesday. 
Compared to previous cycles, the lead time for the iPhone 15 Pro Max is the longest of the past seven years, which Woodring said is likely due to "constrained supply and relatively robust demand."
Woodring also said that iPhone 15 Pro lead times have increased since last week, at 35 days in the U.S. and 36 days on average internationally, except for China, where lead times are unchanged. He also said that iPhone 15 Pro lead times are the longest of any Pro model launched in the past five years, notable, given that it is not limited by supply.
Lead times for the iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus are roughly 16 and 16.5 days in the U.S. and about 17 days internationally, which Woodring said are the second longest of the base and Plus iPhone models over the past four years.
Apple (AAPL) shares were fractionally lower in early Monday trading. 

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