Crude oil, energy stocks sizzle but not all analysts see $100 oil imminent
SlavkoSereda/iStock via Getty Images

Energy (NYSEARCA:XLE) is the overwhelming leader on Monday's S&P 500 sector leaderboard, +4.6%, with crude oil spiking after Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ producers unveiled a surprise decision to cut production by a combined 1.16M bbl/day.
Front-month Nymex crude (CL1:COM) scored its largest percentage gain in a year, +6.3% to $80.42/bbl, on top of last week's 9% surge, and front-month Brent crude (CO1:COM) also settled +6.3% for its best showing since March 2022, at $84.93/bbl.
Twelve of the day's top 15 gainers on the S&P 500 are in the oil and gas sector: Marathon Oil (MRO) +9.9%, ConocoPhillips (COP) +9.1%, APA Corp. (APA) +8.5%, Halliburton (HAL) +8.3%, Hess (HES) +8.2%, Schlumberger (SLB) +6.5%, Diamondback Energy (FANG) +6.4%, Exxon Mobil (XOM) +5.7%, EOG Resources (EOG) +5.7%, Devon Energy (DVN) +5.1%, Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) +4.8%, Occidental Petroleum (OXY) +4.4%.
The day's move helps the sector recover most of its YTD loss, now just -1.5% for the year after falling 5.5% for the year at the end of Friday's session.
ETFs: (XLE), (XOP), (VDE), (OIH), (XES), (IEZ), (NYSEARCA:USO), (BNO), (UCO), (DBO), (SCO), (USL), (DRIP), (GUSH), (USOI), (NRGU)
Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for Brent crude this year to $95/bbl and $100/bbl in 2024, noting OPEC+ "has very significant pricing power relative to the past, and [the] surprise cut is consistent with their new doctrine to act pre-emptively."
Energy Aspects chief oil analyst Amrita Sen said crude has the potential to reach $100/bbl as soon as late this quarter, adding China recovering economy means "the East's ability to withstand high oil prices is much, much greater than the West."
Not everyone agrees: Citi's global head of commodities research Ed Morse said the oil market would need much more uncertainty over supplies before prices could reach $100/bbl, telling Bloomberg, "There is a scenario for $100 oil, but I don't think we're anywhere near that yet."
Morgan Stanley actually cut its Q3 Brent price forecast to $90/bbl from $95/bbl previously and Q4 to $87.50 from $95, saying the OPEC output move reveals a weak outlook for the global oil market; "Let's be honest about this, when demand is roaring, then OPEC doesn't need to cut," the bank's chief commodity strategist Martijn Rats said.
Winners from the OPEC+ cuts include Saudi Arabia, Warren Buffett and electric vehicle manufacturers, while losers include airlines and hopes for an economic soft landing, Logan Kane writes in an analysis newly published on Seeking Alpha.