Retail sales are forecast by NRF to rise 4% to 6% this year
B4LLS

The National Retail Federation issued a forecast on Wednesday for retail sales to grow between 4% and 6% in 2023. The industry watch said it is still too early to know the full effects of the banking industry turmoil, but noted consumer spending is looking quite good for the first quarter of 2023. "While we expect consumers to maintain spending, a softer and likely uneven pace is projected for the balance of the year," previewed Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
Overall, NRF projects that retail sales will reach between $5.13T and $5.23T vs. the $4.97T a year ago off 7% annual growth. The NRF's 2023 forecast for +4% to +6% growth is above the pre-pandemic, average annual retail sales growth rate of 3.6%.
Non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow between 10% and 12%. Brick and mortar stores are observed to still be the primary point of purchase for consumers, accounting for approximately 70% of total retail sales. 
National Retail Federation CEO Matthew Shay: "While we expect growth to moderate in the year ahead, it will remain positive as retail sales stabilize to more historical levels. Retailers are prepared to serve consumers in the current economic environment by offering a range of products at affordable prices with great shopping experiences."
The NRF retail sales forecast could be considered a positive for Amazon (AMZN), Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), and Costco (COST) - with the heavyweights expected to collectively carve out more revenue and net income market share this year compared to the rest of the industry.
Dig into the February retail sales report.