Is Apple recession-proof? Bernstein says to watch the iPhone 14 launch for clues
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Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi said Friday that September's launch of the iPhone 14 will provide a crucial turning point for Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock over the next six months, as it will show whether consumers will keep up their recent demand for upgrades, despite ongoing concerns about the economy.
Speaking to CNBC, the Bernstein senior research analyst pushed back on the notion that AAPL has cemented its position as a recession-proof company, an idea that gained traction after the company's earnings report in late July.
Sacconaghi noted that, in commentary released along with its financial figures, AAPL management was "surprisingly confident about their business going forward." The analyst argued that upbeat stance contributed to a conviction among many investors that the company would not be as impacted by economic cycles as many other tech companies.
"Many investors feel, 'okay, we may have economic weakness going forward, but Apple is perhaps immune to that given the franchise strength,'" he said.
Sacconaghi suggested that this resiliency still requires further evidence, with key data coming from the next iPhone launch. 
"Where we are in the consumers' replacement cycle is the most important driver of Apple's economics," the analyst noted.
Detailing the recent history of iPhone upgrade cycles, Sacconaghi recalled that launches in 2019 and 2020 "were not good cycles." However, the pandemic releases in 2021 and 2022, which were perhaps boosted by a consumer flushed with COVID stimulus, "were very good cycles."
Sacconaghi said that it remains an open question how consumers will react this time around, especially if they are feeling "pinched" by inflation and economic worries.
"The question is: how do consumers respond to [the iPhone 14 launch]? Do they upgrade at similar rates as they have been recently? Or do they upgrade at slower or faster rates?" 

AAPL has rallied about 30% since reaching a 52-week low in mid-June, raising the question of whether it has more near-term upside from here.