Brazil faces decarbonization challenges at COP30
Brazil faces decarbonization challenges at COP30 .      Climate financing will also be one of the challenges, experts say. Bioeconomy, whose principles were agreed upon at the G20 meeting, and the carbon market are among the possibilities for progress The G20 has set the stage for critical issues to be deepened at COP30, such as bioeconomy principles and energy transition. However, experts warn that both time and weather conditions are not on Brazil's side.
Following COP29 in Baku, which ended in what some critique as a fiasco, Brazil, the host of COP in Belém in 2025, now faces the mission of advancing decarbonization targets and necessary financing for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to climate change.
The global climate challenge centers on energy generation based
Jornal O Globo
The G20 has set the stage for critical issues to be deepened at COP30, such as bioeconomy principles and energy transition. However, experts warn that both time and weather conditions are not on Brazil's side.

Following COP29 in Baku, which ended in what some critique as a fiasco, Brazil, the host of COP in Belém in 2025, now faces the mission of advancing decarbonization targets and necessary financing for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to climate change.

The global climate challenge centers on energy generation based on fossil fuels, the primary cause of global warming. However, the transition to clean energy remains far from meeting the planet's needs. Brazil stands closer to opportunities rather than challenges. Yet, as the COP30 president, it finds itself in a diplomatic bind, balancing the interests and needs of both wealthy and developing nations.

On the positive side, William Wills, technical director at the Brazil Climate Center, notes that Brazil could benefit significantly from a low-carbon economy, including advancements in the carbon market, whose regulatory foundations were the only tangible progress from COP29.

Brazil also boasts 90% of its energy matrix from renewable sources, and its main source of greenhouse gas emissions comes from land-use changes, primarily deforestation. While combating deforestation is challenging, its complexity and costs are far less than altering the energy matrix.

Additionally, Brazil contains 62% of the world's largest tropical forest, the Amazon, covering 59% of its national territory, with vast areas available for restoration.

However, this is not the case for most of the world, warns Roberto Waack, co-founder of the Brazil Climate, Forests, and Agriculture Coalition, a movement with over 400 organizations, including agribusiness entities, companies, civil society organizations, the financial sector, and academia.

— We are discussing deep economic changes in countries. It's appealing to talk about the forest COP, etc., but the major global issue is energy transition. We must discuss fossil fuels and international policy. Like the G20, the COP is not a domestic event to meet only our priorities. If Brazil wants to lead, and it can, it needs to adjust its focus. Currently, we are narrowing the discussion, Waack notes.

Waack stresses that G20 meetings and COPs are indicators of moments:

— These summits serve to push and maintain the agenda. They define principles but do not prescribe solutions. I don't expect practical changes. They are civilizational movements. However, the presence of the most important sectors of the economy signals the maturity of both the productive sector and the climate agenda.

COP30: Opportunities for Brazil

Nonetheless, he and other experts highlight the negative impact of internal disputes on organizing COP30, which presents enormous opportunities for the country.

— We have yet to appoint a COP president. This only breeds discord. The country wastes time on these disputes. Who are Brazil's interlocutors for the productive sector, governments, science, and activism? We still don't know. The COP is being treated like a domestic event. But it is a global event, Waack says.

As turbulent as the atmosphere is the international politics Brazil will face to advance COP30. With Donald Trump's presumed withdrawal of the U.S. from the Paris Agreement, two scenarios emerge for climate negotiations: either other countries will adopt more ambitious greenhouse gas reduction targets, or they might slow down their climate ambitions.

The outcome of COP29 in Baku, with a generic financing text that fell short even in vague promises, suggests the latter scenario is more likely, says Wills.

Countries have until February to submit their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), their national commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change. Brazil has already submitted its NDCs, criticized by environmentalists as insufficient. Wills expresses concern that countries might further reduce their target ambitions.

— This would be detrimental to Brazil's presidency, he adds.

Degraded areas

Among potential COP30 advancements is the consolidation of the carbon market. The major progress from COP29 was the groundwork for a regulated carbon market. Brazil has recently passed a law but still needs to regulate it.

— The carbon market incentivizes industry to decarbonize. It's crucial to limit credit issuance. Otherwise, industries won't change production methods due to initial high costs. But if they don't, they won't modernize. Events like COPs highlight the need for industrial modernization, says Wills.

Deforestation near Porto Velho in the Amazon: Carbon market may enable restoration of deforested and degraded areas — Foto: Victor Moriyama/NYT

Experts emphasize that sectors generating credits will benefit significantly. The carbon market could enable the restoration of deforested and degraded areas and payments for environmental services. However, market regulation needs progress.

— This is a step where we can and should advance by the Belém COP, stresses Marcelo Behar, senior advisor at the Brazilian Business Council for Sustainable Development (CEBDS).

According to him, most business leaders recognize the need to decarbonize.

— However, I believe only about 1% know how to do it. This scenario needs to change. Companies emit, and they can make a difference in emission reductions, he says.

The bioeconomy principles established at the G20 meeting are also crucial for advancing at COP30, adds Behar.

— The bioeconomy discussion, including green fuels and the future of energy, is central. The G20 has made important strides, and COP30 can propel public policies in this direction, Behar emphasizes.

However, Wills notes that the negotiation process is not aligned with climate urgency.

— Disasters are already changing our lives, whether it's floods, droughts, or seemingly endless heat. Adaptation is urgent, but financing and the agenda for it lag, Wills emphasizes, an author of the UN Environment Programme's Emissions Gap Report since 2018.
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     Climate financing will also be one of the challenges, experts say. Bioeconomy, whose principles were agreed upon at the G20 meeting, and the carbon market are among the possibilities for progress The G20 has set the stage for critical issues to be deepened at COP30, such as bioeconomy principles and energy transition. However, experts warn that both time and weather conditions are not on Brazil's side.
Following COP29 in Baku, which ended in what some critique as a fiasco, Brazil, the host of COP in Belém in 2025, now faces the mission of advancing decarbonization targets and necessary financing for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to climate change.
The global climate challenge centers on energy generation based on fossil fuels, the primary cause of global warming. However, the transition to clean energy remains far from meeting the planet's needs. Brazil stands closer to opportunities rather than challenges. Yet, as the COP30 president, it finds itself in a diplomatic bind, balancing the interests and needs of both wealthy and developing nations.
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On the positive side, William Wills, technical director at the Brazil Climate Center, notes that Brazil could benefit significantly from a low-carbon economy, including advancements in the carbon market, whose regulatory foundations were the only tangible progress from COP29.
Brazil also boasts 90% of its energy matrix from renewable sources, and its main source of greenhouse gas emissions comes from land-use changes, primarily deforestation. While combating deforestation is challenging, its complexity and costs are far less than altering the energy matrix.
Additionally, Brazil contains 62% of the world's largest tropical forest, the Amazon, covering 59% of its national territory, with vast areas available for restoration.
However, this is not the case for most of the world, warns Roberto Waack, co-founder of the Brazil Climate, Forests, and Agriculture Coalition, a movement with over 400 organizations, including agribusiness entities, companies, civil society organizations, the financial sector, and academia.
— We are discussing deep economic changes in countries. It's appealing to talk about the forest COP, etc., but the major global issue is energy transition. We must discuss fossil fuels and international policy. Like the G20, the COP is not a domestic event to meet only our priorities. If Brazil wants to lead, and it can, it needs to adjust its focus. Currently, we are narrowing the discussion, Waack notes.
Waack stresses that G20 meetings and COPs are indicators of moments:
— These summits serve to push and maintain the agenda. They define principles but do not prescribe solutions. I don't expect practical changes. They are civilizational movements. However, the presence of the most important sectors of the economy signals the maturity of both the productive sector and the climate agenda.
COP30: Opportunities for Brazil
Nonetheless, he and other experts highlight the negative impact of internal disputes on organizing COP30, which presents enormous opportunities for the country.
— We have yet to appoint a COP president. This only breeds discord. The country wastes time on these disputes. Who are Brazil's interlocutors for the productive sector, governments, science, and activism? We still don't know. The COP is being treated like a domestic event. But it is a global event, Waack says.
As turbulent as the atmosphere is the international politics Brazil will face to advance COP30. With Donald Trump's presumed withdrawal of the U.S. from the Paris Agreement, two scenarios emerge for climate negotiations: either other countries will adopt more ambitious greenhouse gas reduction targets, or they might slow down their climate ambitions.
The outcome of COP29 in Baku, with a generic financing text that fell short even in vague promises, suggests the latter scenario is more likely, says Wills.
Countries have until February to submit their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), their national commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change. Brazil has already submitted its NDCs, criticized by environmentalists as insufficient. Wills expresses concern that countries might further reduce their target ambitions.
— This would be detrimental to Brazil's presidency, he adds.
Degraded areas
Among potential COP30 advancements is the consolidation of the carbon market. The major progress from COP29 was the groundwork for a regulated carbon market. Brazil has recently passed a law but still needs to regulate it.
— The carbon market incentivizes industry to decarbonize. It's crucial to limit credit issuance. Otherwise, industries won't change production methods due to initial high costs. But if they don't, they won't modernize. Events like COPs highlight the need for industrial modernization, says Wills.
Deforestation near Porto Velho in the Amazon: Carbon market may enable restoration of deforested and degraded areas
Victor Moriyama/NYT
Experts emphasize that sectors generating credits will benefit significantly. The carbon market could enable the restoration of deforested and degraded areas and payments for environmental services. However, market regulation needs progress.
— This is a step where we can and should advance by the Belém COP, stresses Marcelo Behar, senior advisor at the Brazilian Business Council for Sustainable Development (CEBDS).
According to him, most business leaders recognize the need to decarbonize.
— However, I believe only about 1% know how to do it. This scenario needs to change. Companies emit, and they can make a difference in emission reductions, he says.
The bioeconomy principles established at the G20 meeting are also crucial for advancing at COP30, adds Behar.
— The bioeconomy discussion, including green fuels and the future of energy, is central. The G20 has made important strides, and COP30 can propel public policies in this direction, Behar emphasizes.
However, Wills notes that the negotiation process is not aligned with climate urgency.
— Disasters are already changing our lives, whether it's floods, droughts, or seemingly endless heat. Adaptation is urgent, but financing and the agenda for it lag, Wills emphasizes, an author of the UN Environment Programme's Emissions Gap Report since 2018.
The translation of this text into english was carried out by Project Irineu, O GLOBO's initiative to develop artificial intelligence tools. Here is the link to the original report.
Brazil faces decarbonization challenges at COP30