 up you know having that mentality that i think we're trying to cram complexity into these neat and tidy sort of straightjack models is because my phd's uh dissertation and so on i was looking at the origin story of uh coups and civil wars that was part of my research and these are black swan events i mean you know there's only a few coup attempts that happen every year and they're so hard to predict i mean because you know one of the one of the coup plots that i studied