 Now, we haven't factored in third-party candidates yet. Polling shows that if you factor in the third-party candidates, you take 4.6 points away from Trump, but you take 5.3 points away from Biden, so that's another seven-tenths of a point in Trump's favor. Does that make sense? So now we're going to rerun the totals, giving Trump a 10.9% vote swing from 2020 in the five-way race.