 Back to history, most people's experience of COVID wasn't going to be bad enough to justify lockdowns. They wouldn't voluntarily stop normal living. The spread wasn't going to be curtailed. On the same day, President Trump received a report saying the virus had the potential to be a trillion-dollar calamity. I wrote that it was already certainly spreading undetected in New York City and was less deadly than reported thanks to unobserved mild or symptomless cases. I was channeling what epidemiologists were thinking at the time.