 Nate Silver points out that his numbers are going the wrong direction, that there has been a somewhat small but also somewhat durable increase in the polling numbers for Donald Trump, that since the debate, Donald Trump has jumped about two percentage points in the polling data. The latest poll, SurveyUSA, has Trump up two. The New York Times-Siena poll that was taken before the debate has Trump up four. There's a poll that just came out after the debate, and it shows Trump up five.