 Trump had his trial and conviction in Manhattan. For a few weeks after that verdict, it appeared that the contest in which earlier this year Trump had a lead from one to two points in the RealClearPolitics average on national polls had, after the conviction, narrowed to less than one. And again, I'm not a big fan of national polls, but I said that earlier. Or perhaps Biden pulling ahead by a slight margin, as happened with FiveThirtyEight.com. The problem for the national poll numbers