 Now, you might be confused because if you're a political nerd and you follow these polls, you might say, hold on. I was reading the 538 poll and 538, that's Nate Silver's polling outlet and statistics outlet. 538 says that Biden is the favorite to win. Right. Nate Silver was either booted out of or left 538 last year. So Nate Silver is on his own. What matters is.