 when you're trying to analyze what the top pollsters have to say about things, is not what Nate Silver's old outlet says. It's what Nate Silver says. So the question is, is Nate Silver right? Well, let's just look at his track record. 2008, that's when Silver came onto the screen. His final forecast for the election accurately predicted the winner of 49 out of 50 states. The one state he got wrong was Indiana. Other than that, Silver was 100% right.