 Then the Washington Post published a new analysis of existing polls. Trump leads in five of seven states, most likely to determine the election. The Post concluded that at the moment, Trump leads in Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, all by five points, North Carolina by four, Michigan by three, and is behind Biden by less than a point in Wisconsin, with Pennsylvania tied. Finally, also on Wednesday, the influential poll analyst Nate Silver, E of 538, published a piece headlined, The presidential election isn't a toss-up.