 If you look at the margins in the swing states, Donald Trump right now, according to the polling that Nate Silver has accumulated here, Donald Trump is currently leading in Pennsylvania by 3. He's leading in Wisconsin by 2. He's leading in Georgia by 5 to 6 points. He's leading in Michigan by 1. In North Carolina by 6. In Arizona by 7. In Nevada by 6. In Florida by 9. In Texas by 10.