 The participation gap is worth at least one to two percentage points. And because the shooting happened in Pennsylvania, the impact will be more significant in Pennsylvania. Trump's defiant pose, fist in the air as he was being let off the stage bleeding, will be the visual people remember at the polling booth when they think about election 2024. It's hard to imagine either Biden or any of the potential Democratic candidates delivering full-throated crowd-pleasing attacks on the former president now.