 Nate Silver's election model forecast from June 30th after the first presidential debate, Joe Trump leads Biden by six, make that 16, because all polls generally are meant to demoralize Republicans. And I always say if a national poll says Trump by six, it means just add another 10 to it. Probability of winning the popular vote in November, the last Republican to win the popular vote, George W. Bush, 20-04, 50% of the vote, 50.73%.