 Is New York winnable for Trump? I think he's, miraculously, he's got a shot, which that's a miracle. I don't think he's going to win it. I think J.D. Vance hurts him because it's a blue state, and you know how they feel about abortion and some of the issues. J.D. Vance, you see, here's the deal. Donald Trump is not a staunch conservative.