 So 6%, 3%, those are nationwide polls, not terribly meaningful. You have to look at the states independently to really get a good handle on what happens and what is going to happen. Meanwhile, Nate Silver says this is not a toss-up. There's a clear front-runner, he says. Silver's model, and he left 538 last year, the company that he started, but his model shows Trump right now with 287 electoral votes.