 Told you the biggest underpriced risk in the market is still a hike from the Federal Reserve. The federal funds future market implies a near certainty that the Fed will cut interest rates by the end of the year. Pricing in a 94 percent chance of at least one cut and a 65 percent chance of two cuts by the December meeting. There's still a 66 percent chance implied of a September rate cut. Despite the political explosion, a cut on the eve of the election would ignite.