 In simulations, Biden wins at least one of the states 54% of the time, but he only wins all three of them, 32% of the simulations. Biden also has to hold on to states like New Hampshire and Virginia and New Mexico and Minnesota and Nebraska's second congressional district in the blue wall saves the day scenario. That's not quite a sure thing, says Nate Silver, given Biden's mediocre polling elsewhere in the Northeast. In the Sunbelt swing states, Biden trails badly.