 The election guru's prediction suggests Donald Trump is favored to beat Biden, and it's not even close. Silver admits his model, similar to what he built for the website 538 for the 2020 election, isn't perfect. And there are still factors to consider in the next few months. But his initial result shows Donald Trump has a 65.7% chance of winning the presidential election. And Joe Biden is down to a 33.7% chance of winning.