 according to his model right now harris has about a 54 shot at winning the popular vote because she's going to drive up the vote in big cities particularly in blue areas she's going to win about 47.7 percent of the vote trump would win about 47.1 but in the electoral college trump currently has about a 60 40 advantage over kamala harris according to nate silver so this is very much a competitive race harris does have some momentum although