 percent lead over her there's two polls that have her up by one there's two polls that have her tied i do expect more of those to move in her favor as the the perpetual honeymoon from the media continues all the way to the election so i don't know how much of a surge she's going to get before maybe it starts settling back but there is some positive news in that you know nate silver's model right which you know nate silver's model his latest model