 A lot of it still has to do with the nuts and bolts of policies and getting things done. There's some other stuff, too, that factors into it. Six of these keys would have to go against the White House party, that's Joe Biden, to predict their defeat. Right now, for certain, Biden has lost two keys. Party mandate, because they lost House seats in 2022. And incumbent charisma, because he's no FDR or JFK.