 They currently project him to win the popular vote by maybe two to three percentage points. That would make this a toss up race, given Biden's problems in the Electoral College. He says the problem is the economy isn't all that good. Real GDP grew by 2.5 percent last year, following 1.9 percent in 2020. It grew at an annualized rate of 1.3 percent in the first quarter of 2024. This is like, OK, but it's below the long term median growth rate in the United States. So, in other words, if you look at the modeling.