 What do you believe today that will be obvious a year or 20 years from now as being so obviously wrong? This is why I advocate you meet with an advisor. You have guidance because a good advisor will expose some of those biases and hopefully help you overcome them. The fifth and final question to ask is what has been true for a long period of time, but will eventually run its course. Think brick and mortar retail dominance. It was the case until it wasn't.