['Update of Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of Jamaica Page | 1 Cover pictures courtesy of: The Forestry Department and Wigton Wind Farm Jamaica Limited Top The Cockpit Country, Jamaica Bottom Wind turbines of the completed three phased Wigton Windfarm ProjectUpdate of Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of Jamaica Page | 2 Summary • Jamaica remains committed to making its contribution as the world moves to address the challenge of climate change. In line with requirements of the Paris Agreement, the country has increased its ambition of the mitigation component of its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). This increase in ambition comprises both a broadening of the NDC’s sectoral scope and the delivery of greater emission reductions.', 'This increase in ambition comprises both a broadening of the NDC’s sectoral scope and the delivery of greater emission reductions. • Jamaica has broadened its sectoral scope and taken steps to move towards an economy-wide target and will bring emissions from the land use change and forestry sector within its NDC for the first time. This reflects the importance of the forestry sector to Jamaica, which accounts for more than half of the island’s total land use, and the important commitments that the country has made to preserve and enhance these stocks. • The country has identified opportunities to deepen the emission reductions it delivers in the energy sector.', '• The country has identified opportunities to deepen the emission reductions it delivers in the energy sector. These opportunities are part of an increasingly comprehensive approach to decarbonising this sector that covers both the electricity generation, as well as energy use sub-sectors. • The result of these positive changes is that Jamaica’s latest NDC will be significantly more ambitious. By 2030, it foresees emission reductions covering these two sectors of between 25.4 per cent (unconditional) and 28.5 per cent (conditional) relative to a business-as-usual scenario (which takes into account policies in place as of 2005). This implies that emissions in these sectors would be 1.8 to 2.0 MtCO2e lower than they otherwise be, compared with a range of 1.1 to 1.5 MtCO2e in its previous NDC.', 'This implies that emissions in these sectors would be 1.8 to 2.0 MtCO2e lower than they otherwise be, compared with a range of 1.1 to 1.5 MtCO2e in its previous NDC. • A crucial feature of Jamaica’s NDC is that it is based on the analytical work of the policies and grounded ambitious commitments that the country has already made. This ensures that the commitments are robust, benefiting from both political support and implementation plans already in place. This approach is crucial in both ensuring the legitimacy of Jamaica’s NDC to domestic constituents and in enhancing the credibility of the international process governing emission reductions.', 'This approach is crucial in both ensuring the legitimacy of Jamaica’s NDC to domestic constituents and in enhancing the credibility of the international process governing emission reductions. • As a small island developing state, Jamaica is acutely aware of how the physical risks of climate change threaten its development and the wellbeing and economic security of its citizens. Adaptation represents an important cross-cutting element for all sectors. Within the energy and land-use sectors, the policies in place to reduce emissions will also provide adaptation co- benefits to Jamaica and therefore enhance the country’s resilience. For example, a shift to cleaner energy in the energy sector will reduce local air pollution and therefore benefit human health. This problem will otherwise be more severe as temperatures increase.', 'This problem will otherwise be more severe as temperatures increase. Similarly, the preservation of the forest cover will improve water, soil and air quality, and reduce soil erosion. • All relevant GHG gases were accounted for using the IPCC 2006 Guidelines for the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories and IPCC 2013 Wetlands Supplement. • Jamaica has opted to update its NDC in the information to facilitate clarity, transparency and understanding (ICTU) guidance template made available following discussions that framed the Katowice Rulebook at the twenty-fourth meeting of the Conference of Parties (COP 24). • Moving forward, Jamaica is committed to delivering on this NDC in keeping with its commitments as a Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement.', '• Moving forward, Jamaica is committed to delivering on this NDC in keeping with its commitments as a Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement. Jamaica welcomes the support of the international community as the country pursues these ambitious goals to consolidate its efforts to delink economic growth and development from emissions growth, while also making itself more climate-resilient.Update of Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of Jamaica Page | 3 UPDATE OF NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION (NDC) OF JAMAICA (BASED ON THE ICTU GUIDANCE) 1. Quantified information on the reference point, including, as appropriate, a base year a Reference year(s), base year(s), reference period(s) or other starting point(s) The target is not expressed relative to a base year.', 'Quantified information on the reference point, including, as appropriate, a base year a Reference year(s), base year(s), reference period(s) or other starting point(s) The target is not expressed relative to a base year. The reference year for the target is 2030 and the target is expressed relative to business-as-usual emissions in this year.', 'The reference year for the target is 2030 and the target is expressed relative to business-as-usual emissions in this year. Business-as-usual emissions have been calculated based on policies in place in 2005. b. Quantifiable information on the reference indicators, their values in the reference year(s), base year(s), reference period(s) or other starting point(s), and, as applicable, in the target year • Business-as-usual emissions in the energy sector in 2030: • Business-as-usual emissions related to land use change and forestry • Total business-as-usual emissions in 2030 of sectors in the NDC: c. For strategies, plans and actions referred to in Article 4, paragraph 6, of the Paris Agreement, or polices and measures as components of nationally determined contributions where paragraph 1(b) above is not applicable, Parties to provide other relevant information Jamaica will undertake a range of actions concerning the sectors not covered by its quantitative commitments.', 'Business-as-usual emissions have been calculated based on policies in place in 2005. b. Quantifiable information on the reference indicators, their values in the reference year(s), base year(s), reference period(s) or other starting point(s), and, as applicable, in the target year • Business-as-usual emissions in the energy sector in 2030: • Business-as-usual emissions related to land use change and forestry • Total business-as-usual emissions in 2030 of sectors in the NDC: c. For strategies, plans and actions referred to in Article 4, paragraph 6, of the Paris Agreement, or polices and measures as components of nationally determined contributions where paragraph 1(b) above is not applicable, Parties to provide other relevant information Jamaica will undertake a range of actions concerning the sectors not covered by its quantitative commitments. These include the following: Agriculture: The Climate Change Policy Framework for Jamaica (2015) identifies the agriculture sector as a critical sector of importance for both mitigation and adaptation.', 'These include the following: Agriculture: The Climate Change Policy Framework for Jamaica (2015) identifies the agriculture sector as a critical sector of importance for both mitigation and adaptation. Strategic aims include facilitating the use of water (and hence energy) efficient agricultural methods, improved food storage systems, and diversifying food production techniques including the expansion of agroforestry and aquaculture. Consistent with these strategic priorities, several important ongoing important projects in the sector are contributing to both GHG emissions reductions, carbon sequestration and enhanced climate resilience. For example, the Integrated Management of the Yallahs and Hope River Watershed Management Areas (Yallahs-Hope) Project, aims to improve the conservation and management of biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services within the region; the watersheds accounts for around 7% of the island’s farmlands.', 'For example, the Integrated Management of the Yallahs and Hope River Watershed Management Areas (Yallahs-Hope) Project, aims to improve the conservation and management of biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services within the region; the watersheds accounts for around 7% of the island’s farmlands. This will be done by implementing sustainable agriculture (including renewable power generation), forestry, land management and livelihood practices within targeted communities. An initial estimate suggests that the avoided deforestation, reforestation and sustainable land management outcomes of the project could yield emission reductions of more than 550,000tCO2e for the 4 years of the project. Other projects expected to contribute to low-emissions development in the agriculture sector include The Essex Valley Agriculture Development Project, and a project focused on Promoting Community- Based Climate Resilience in the Fisheries Sector.', 'Other projects expected to contribute to low-emissions development in the agriculture sector include The Essex Valley Agriculture Development Project, and a project focused on Promoting Community- Based Climate Resilience in the Fisheries Sector. Waste: Jamaica has introduced a single-use plastics ban. Since the start of 2019, the government has imposed a ban on the importation, manufacture, distribution and use of single-use plastic bags (of certain sizes) as well as plastic straws. From January 2019, there has been a ban on the importation of polystyrene foam (‘Styrofoam’) for use in the food and drink industry, while from the start of 2020, the ban wasUpdate of Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of Jamaica Page | 4 extended to cover the domestic manufacture of these items as well.', 'From January 2019, there has been a ban on the importation of polystyrene foam (‘Styrofoam’) for use in the food and drink industry, while from the start of 2020, the ban wasUpdate of Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of Jamaica Page | 4 extended to cover the domestic manufacture of these items as well. The ban is complemented by a Plastic Waste Minimisation project. In addition, the country is currently developing proposals for a country- wide Integrated Waste Management (IWM) PPP concession which is expected to improve the management and reduce the emissions of the waste sector. The country is also undertaking a range of pilot projects to explore biodiesel from cooking oil, the production of biogas using animal waste and increasing the use of biodigestors.', 'The country is also undertaking a range of pilot projects to explore biodiesel from cooking oil, the production of biogas using animal waste and increasing the use of biodigestors. d. Target relative to the reference indicator, expressed numerically, for example in percentage or amount of reduction • 25.4% reduction relative to business-as-usual emissions in 2030 without international support (unconditional) • 28.5% reduction relative to business-as-usual emissions in 2030 conditional upon international support e. Information on sources of data used in quantifying the reference point(s) The source data is that reported in Jamaica’s Third National Communication and 2018 Jamaica Integrated Resource Plan: A 20 Year Roadmap to Sustain and Enable Jamaica’s Electricity Future. Jamaica’s 2013 Land Use Change Assessment (LUCA) and National Forest Inventory Report were used to estimate current forest cover and type.', 'Jamaica’s 2013 Land Use Change Assessment (LUCA) and National Forest Inventory Report were used to estimate current forest cover and type. f. Information on the circumstances under which the Party may update the values of the reference indicators Jamaica may update the reference indicator to account for technical changes (e.g. changes in fuel prices, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) projections or any errors uncovered in the future) at the point of its next NDC submission. This approach has also been taken in this NDC with the business-as- usual emissions in the energy sector being reduced relative to those projected in Jamaica’s first NDC. The first NDC had business-as-usual energy emissions in 2030 of 14.5MtCO2e whereas in the new baseline the comparable (energy sector) emissions are 8.2MtCO2e. 2. Time frames and/or periods for implementation a.', 'Time frames and/or periods for implementation a. Time frame and/or period for implementation, including start and end date, consistent with any further relevant decision adopted by the CMA; Jamaica has already begun implementing the actions and activities needed to meet this commitment. It will continue to do so in the period through to 2030. b. Whether it is a single-year or multi-year target, as applicable. Single year target in 2030 3. Scope and coverage a. General description of the target; Jamaica’s target to reduce emissions relative to business-as-usual by 2030, covers the energy sector (supply and end-use) and land-use change and forestry. The inclusion of the land use change and forestry is a new addition to Jamaica’s NDC. b.', 'The inclusion of the land use change and forestry is a new addition to Jamaica’s NDC. b. Sectors, gases, categories and pools covered by the nationally determined contribution, including, as applicable, consistent with IPCC guidelines; Energy sector: • Carbon dioxide (CO2 ) • Methane (CH4 ) • Nitrous Oxide (N2 • Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) Land-use change and forestry: CO2 c. How the Party has taken into consideration paragraphs 31(c) and (d) of decision 1/CP.21; Jamaica is committed over time to extending the scope of the coverage of its NDC to all categories of anthropogenic emissions in line withUpdate of Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of Jamaica Page | 5 paragraph 31(c). In this update, emissions related to land use change and forestry were included along with the energy sector in this NDC.', 'In this update, emissions related to land use change and forestry were included along with the energy sector in this NDC. Jamaica conducted a detailed assessment to determine whether other sources and sinks of emissions could be included within its updated NDC but concluded that the data needed to rigorously assess the impact of policies and actions on emissions in other sectors was not available. Efforts will be made to address these data gaps over time with the support of national, regional and international partners. d. Mitigation co-benefits resulting from Parties’ adaptation actions and/or economic diversification plans, including description of specific projects, measures and initiatives of Parties’ adaptation actions and/or economic diversification plans. See 1 (c) 4. Planning process a.', 'See 1 (c) 4. Planning process a. Information on the planning processes that the Party undertook to prepare its NDC and, if available, on the Party’s implementation plans, including, as appropriate: The Climate Change Division of the Ministry of Economic Growth and Job Creation coordinated a highly participatory process with public and private sector stakeholders related to all key emission-intensive sectors in the economy. The purpose of these consultations was to curate the actual and planned strategies, policies and initiatives of relevance to the emissions profile of the country, as well as to understand the data sources that could support the development of the NDC.', 'The purpose of these consultations was to curate the actual and planned strategies, policies and initiatives of relevance to the emissions profile of the country, as well as to understand the data sources that could support the development of the NDC. In total, representatives from more than ten (10) Ministries, Departments and Agencies of government along with International Development Partners, private sector entities and civil society were engaged at all levels for a period of over twelve 12 months at different stages of the development of the NDC. i. Domestic institutional arrangements, public participation and engagement with local communities and indigenous peoples, in a gender-responsive manner; ii. Contextual matters, including, inter alia, as appropriate: a.', 'Contextual matters, including, inter alia, as appropriate: a. National circumstances, such as geography, climate, economy, sustainable development, and poverty eradication; Geography: Jamaica is a small island developing state in the Caribbean and highly dependent on natural resources. Its geographical location and biophysical landscape make it vulnerable to climate change impacts, especially for coastal sectors where persons depend on livelihood activities. Climate1: Jamaica has a tropical climate which is influenced by the Northeast Trade Winds and its geography, including mountains and hills. Average temperatures historically range from 24-27°C, varying according to elevation and proximity to the coast. The country has a bimodal rainfall pattern, typically peaking in May and October. The late rainfall season typically receives the largest volume of rainfall. Wind speeds tend to be highest during the drier months.', 'Wind speeds tend to be highest during the drier months. The country is already experiencing the effects of climate change. There is an overall decline in annual rainfall, though there are spatial differences; rainfall is increasing over the centre of the island and decreasing rainfall over the eastern and western parishes leading to prolonged drier periods and more frequent and intense droughts in 1 See The State of the Jamaican Climate 2015 here: of Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of Jamaica Page | 6 these areas. The country is already managing the consequences of sea level rise. In the future, the trends observed in Jamaica’s climate will become more pronounced. Downscaled models show that temperatures continue to increase, including in the short to medium terms.', 'Downscaled models show that temperatures continue to increase, including in the short to medium terms. Temperatures could increase by 0.82°C to 3.09°C by 2081 to 2100. The models also show a drying trend which is more pronounced in some sections of the island from the 2020s and being more extensive and intense by the 2030s when drying may be up to ~30%. Sea level rise will continue while hurricanes are expected to become less frequent but more intense. Economy: Jamaica is an upper-middle-income country that has nonetheless faced significant problems in the recent past due both to its vulnerability to natural disasters (many of which are climate-related) as well as other structural challenges.', 'Economy: Jamaica is an upper-middle-income country that has nonetheless faced significant problems in the recent past due both to its vulnerability to natural disasters (many of which are climate-related) as well as other structural challenges. Its key economic areas include services industry (of which tourism is a part), as well as mining and quarrying sector. During 2020, the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tourism sector has been significant which has also had a ripple effect on rural livelihoods which rely predominantly on the climate- sensitive fisheries and agriculture sectors. In the recent past, Jamaica has been heavily focused on improving its macroeconomic fundamentals with a strong focus on reducing its public debt, controlling inflation, and reducing unemployment.', 'In the recent past, Jamaica has been heavily focused on improving its macroeconomic fundamentals with a strong focus on reducing its public debt, controlling inflation, and reducing unemployment. These improvements have been characterized as an international success but are now threatened by the global fallout from the COVID 19 pandemic. Sustainable development: Vision 2030 Jamaica – National Development Plan, and its Medium-Term Socio-Economic Policy Framework (2018-2021) are underpinned by the three dimensions of sustainable development – social, economic and environmental – as well as equity and inclusiveness. It has made a strong national commitment to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), with assessments indicating a more than 90% alignment between Vision 2030 Jamaica and the SDGs.', 'It has made a strong national commitment to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), with assessments indicating a more than 90% alignment between Vision 2030 Jamaica and the SDGs. Besides climate action (SDG 13), Jamaica is making particularly substantial progress on health and well-being (SDG 3), quality education (SDG 4), and gender equality (SDG 5). Poverty eradication: Through the National Policy on Poverty and National Poverty Reduction Programme, Jamaica is actively seeking to end or significantly reduce poverty in all forms. This is complemented by a Social Protection Strategy and creating an enabling environment for businesses and economic activities to grow while increasingly putting in place measures to safeguard natural resources2. Data3 shows that poverty has fluctuated over the past decade and remains highest in rural areas.', 'Data3 shows that poverty has fluctuated over the past decade and remains highest in rural areas. The government’s commitment to addressing poverty is reflected in its NDC through, for example, recognising the importance of increased agricultural production, the sustainable management of 2 See Jamaica Voluntary National Review Report on the Implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (2018). 3 See Jamaica Survey of Living Conditions (2017)Update of Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of Jamaica Page | 7 forest resources and the implementation of adaptation measures. Jamaica aims to move towards the eradication of poverty while simultaneously contributing to reducing global emissions. b.', 'Jamaica aims to move towards the eradication of poverty while simultaneously contributing to reducing global emissions. b. Best practices and experience related to the preparation of the NDC; A key feature of Jamaica’s approach to determining its NDC is that it is based on policies, initiatives, and commitments that the country has already made. This approach - by focusing on activities where there is political support and which, in many cases, benefit from existing implementation plans – serves to make its NDC robust. This approach helps ensure the legitimacy of Jamaica’s NDC to domestic constituents and enhances the credibility of the international process governing emission reductions. c. Other contextual aspirations and priorities acknowledged when joining the Paris Agreement; A commitment to reducing GHG emission levels nationally will require cleaner technologies, expertise and financing.', 'c. Other contextual aspirations and priorities acknowledged when joining the Paris Agreement; A commitment to reducing GHG emission levels nationally will require cleaner technologies, expertise and financing. Technology: The need for new innovations are embedded in the need to be more efficient and to produce from cleaner technologies. The availability and transfer of technologies that are environmentally sound and which support low carbon and climate-resilient development is paramount. As a small island developing state these opportunities are not often readily accessible and so the spirit of the Paris Agreement would help to foster North-South Cooperation. Expertise: The integration and transformation of new ideas and technologies into the economy, society and environment will take some capacity development for their appropriate applicability and proliferation.', 'Expertise: The integration and transformation of new ideas and technologies into the economy, society and environment will take some capacity development for their appropriate applicability and proliferation. Financing: Technology transfer and capacity development cannot take place without sufficient financial resources made available to undertake the transition. As an indebted and highly vulnerable state to the impact of climate change, it is important to find the right balance in building the country’s resilience and in implementing the necessary adaptation and mitigation measures, while supporting the day to day needs of the country. The measures necessary to effect the transition are cost-intensive. b.', 'The measures necessary to effect the transition are cost-intensive. b. Specific information applicable to Parties, including regional economic integration organizations and their member States, that have reached an agreement to act jointly under Article 4, paragraph 2, of the Paris Agreement, including the Parties that agreed to act jointly and the terms of the agreement, in accordance with Article 4, paragraphs 16–18, of the Paris Agreement; Jamaica is not part of an agreement to act jointly under Article 4 of the Paris Agreement. c. How the Party’s preparation of its NDC has been informed by the outcomes of the global stocktake, in accordance with Article 4, paragraph 9, of the Paris Agreement; The first global stocktake will take place in 2023.', 'c. How the Party’s preparation of its NDC has been informed by the outcomes of the global stocktake, in accordance with Article 4, paragraph 9, of the Paris Agreement; The first global stocktake will take place in 2023. Jamaica participated in the Talanoa Dialogue in 2018, which generated political momentum for enhanced climate action, including calling for Parties to update their NDCs. Reflecting this momentum, Jamaica’s new NDC is more ambitious than its previous one, both in terms of its sectoral coverage (the inclusion of land use change and forestry emissions) and in terms of a commitmentUpdate of Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of Jamaica Page | 8 to deeper emission reductions in the energy sector.', 'Reflecting this momentum, Jamaica’s new NDC is more ambitious than its previous one, both in terms of its sectoral coverage (the inclusion of land use change and forestry emissions) and in terms of a commitmentUpdate of Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of Jamaica Page | 8 to deeper emission reductions in the energy sector. By 2030, emissions covered by the NDC will be 1.8 to 2.0 MtCO2e lower than under a BAU scenario. These reductions relative to business-as-usual (BAU) in 2030 compare with a range of 1.1 to 1.5 MtCO2e in Jamaica’s previous NDC.', 'These reductions relative to business-as-usual (BAU) in 2030 compare with a range of 1.1 to 1.5 MtCO2e in Jamaica’s previous NDC. d. Each Party with an NDC under Article 4 of the Paris Agreement that consists of adaptation action and/or economic diversification plans resulting in mitigation co-benefits consistent with Article 4, paragraph 7, of the Paris Agreement to submit information on: N/A i. How the economic and social consequences of response measures have been considered in developing the NDC; N/A ii.', 'How the economic and social consequences of response measures have been considered in developing the NDC; N/A ii. Specific projects, measures and activities to be implemented to contribute to mitigation co-benefits, including information on adaptation plans that also yield mitigation co-benefits, which may cover, but are not limited to, key sectors, such as energy, resources, water resources, coastal resources, human settlements and urban planning, agriculture and forestry; and economic diversification actions, which may cover, but are not limited to, sectors such as manufacturing and industry, energy and mining, transport and communication, construction, tourism, real estate, agriculture and fisheries. N/A 5.', 'Specific projects, measures and activities to be implemented to contribute to mitigation co-benefits, including information on adaptation plans that also yield mitigation co-benefits, which may cover, but are not limited to, key sectors, such as energy, resources, water resources, coastal resources, human settlements and urban planning, agriculture and forestry; and economic diversification actions, which may cover, but are not limited to, sectors such as manufacturing and industry, energy and mining, transport and communication, construction, tourism, real estate, agriculture and fisheries. N/A 5. Assumptions and methodological approaches, including those for estimating and accounting for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and, as appropriate, removals: a. Assumptions and methodological approaches used for accounting for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and removals corresponding to the Party’s nationally determined contribution, consistent with decision 1/CP.21, paragraph 31, and accounting guidance adopted by the CMA; Jamaica will account for its anthropogenic GHG emissions and removals using the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, IPCC Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.', 'Assumptions and methodological approaches, including those for estimating and accounting for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and, as appropriate, removals: a. Assumptions and methodological approaches used for accounting for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and removals corresponding to the Party’s nationally determined contribution, consistent with decision 1/CP.21, paragraph 31, and accounting guidance adopted by the CMA; Jamaica will account for its anthropogenic GHG emissions and removals using the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, IPCC Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. The 2013 Supplement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Wetlands (IPCC 2013 Wetlands Supplement) was also utilized. b. Assumptions and methodological approaches used for accounting for the implementation of policies and measures or strategies in the nationally determined contribution; See 5(a) above.', 'b. Assumptions and methodological approaches used for accounting for the implementation of policies and measures or strategies in the nationally determined contribution; See 5(a) above. Jamaica will also apply specific assumptions and methodologies, where relevant, when accounting for the progress of various policies and measures in its Biennial Update Report or Biennial Transparency Report. c. If applicable, information on how the Party will take into account existing methods and guidance under the Convention to account for anthropogenic emissions and removals, in accordance with Article 4, paragraph 14, of the Paris Agreement, as appropriate; See 5(a) above. d. IPCC methodologies and metrics used for estimating anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and removals; Jamaica’s emissions for CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6 and NF3 will be derived using the 2006 IPCC Guidelines and the IPCC 2013 Wetland supplement.', 'd. IPCC methodologies and metrics used for estimating anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and removals; Jamaica’s emissions for CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6 and NF3 will be derived using the 2006 IPCC Guidelines and the IPCC 2013 Wetland supplement. The tier of methodology used will depend on the data that is available in different sectors.Update of Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of Jamaica Page | 9 The aggregation of GHG emissions have been estimated, and will be reported, using the 100-year time-horizon global warming potential values from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. e. Sector-, category- or activity-specific assumptions, methodologies and approaches consistent with IPCC guidance, as appropriate, including, as applicable: i.', 'e. Sector-, category- or activity-specific assumptions, methodologies and approaches consistent with IPCC guidance, as appropriate, including, as applicable: i. Approach to addressing emissions and subsequent removals from natural disturbances on managed lands; GHG emissions and removals from natural disturbances, if any, will be accounted for in accordance with the prescribed 2006 IPCC Guidelines, coupled with field inventory measurements where applicable. No allowance was made for natural disturbances within the NDC. ii. Approach used to account for emissions and removals from harvested wood products; Due to the limited scale of harvested wood products in Jamaica these were not included when developing the NDC. iii. Approach used to address the effects of age-class structure in forests; Jamaica estimates GHG emissions and removals in the LUCF sector, using the maximum tier for which data is available.', 'Approach used to address the effects of age-class structure in forests; Jamaica estimates GHG emissions and removals in the LUCF sector, using the maximum tier for which data is available. It will apply country- specific data resulting from field inventory measurements undertaken at regular intervals and estimated by modelling approaches. The field measurements will take into consideration tree growth information across the range of tree species and diameter classes for all forest types. The NDC used historical planting and removal data to estimate the age distribution of existing forest cover and applied the appropriate emissions factors from the IPCC. f. Other assumptions and methodological approaches used for understanding the nationally determined contribution and, if applicable, estimating corresponding emissions and removals, including: i.', 'f. Other assumptions and methodological approaches used for understanding the nationally determined contribution and, if applicable, estimating corresponding emissions and removals, including: i. How the reference indicators, baseline(s) and/or reference level(s), including, where applicable, sector-, category- or activity- specific reference levels, are constructed, including, for example, key parameters, assumptions, definitions, methodologies, data sources and models used; The baseline for assessing emission reduction from land use change and forestry was determined using Jamaica’s 2013 Land Use Change Assessment. Projections for land-use change for the period to 2030 in the baseline take account of the historical trends reported in this document as well as Jamaica’s agricultural production targets as set out in Vision 2030 Jamaica. The analysis then calculates how land-use patterns will change as a result of key policies (no net loss of forest cover, tree planting).', 'The analysis then calculates how land-use patterns will change as a result of key policies (no net loss of forest cover, tree planting). Changes in land use are then aligned with emissions factors from the IPCC’s Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories to estimate the implications these changes have for both emissions and removals. The baseline emissions in the energy sector were calculated using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model. This combines demographic and economic growth projections from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica, the UN World Population Prospects and the World Bank, to develop a business-as-usual forecast for energy sectors emissions given the policies that were in place in Jamaica as of 2005.', 'This combines demographic and economic growth projections from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica, the UN World Population Prospects and the World Bank, to develop a business-as-usual forecast for energy sectors emissions given the policies that were in place in Jamaica as of 2005. GDP is assumed to grow at around 2% per annum between 2019 and 2030, based on IMF projections. Gradual population growth is also expected, from 2.7m in 2018 to 2.8m in 2030, based on historical data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica and projections from the UN.Update of Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of Jamaica Page | 10 ii. For Parties with nationally determined contributions that contain non- greenhouse-gas components, information on assumptions and methodological approaches used in relation to those components, as applicable; N/A iii.', 'For Parties with nationally determined contributions that contain non- greenhouse-gas components, information on assumptions and methodological approaches used in relation to those components, as applicable; N/A iii. For climate forcers included in nationally determined contributions not covered by IPCC guidelines, information on how the climate forcers are estimated; N/A iv. Further technical information, as necessary; N/A g. The intention to use voluntary cooperation under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, if applicable. Jamaica is committed to contributing to discussions on international cooperation through Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. Depending on the outcome of these negotiations, the country will explore how it can use these mechanisms either to support the achievement of its own NDC or to provide additional mitigation outcomes to support NDC attainment by other countries. 6.', 'Depending on the outcome of these negotiations, the country will explore how it can use these mechanisms either to support the achievement of its own NDC or to provide additional mitigation outcomes to support NDC attainment by other countries. 6. How the Party considers that its NDC is fair and ambitious in light of its national circumstances a. How the Party considers that its NDC is fair and ambitious in the light of its national circumstances; Jamaica’s updated NDC reflects its strong commitment to the implementation of the Paris Agreement. It will be subject to all relevant laws, guidelines, policies and programmes which are designed to increase inclusiveness and fairness, including the Code of Consultations and the National Policy for Gender Equity.', 'It will be subject to all relevant laws, guidelines, policies and programmes which are designed to increase inclusiveness and fairness, including the Code of Consultations and the National Policy for Gender Equity. As set out below, the updated NDC is considerably more ambitious than its first. Despite being a developing country and a SIDS, under this NDC, and given current expectations, within the covered sectors, Jamaica will move closer to decoupling economic growth from its emissions profile. Over the ten years between 2020 and 2030, emissions are projected to only grow very slightly within the sectors covered by its NDC, despite expected continued growth of the economy. The country’s emissions per capita will remain substantially lower than the global average. b.', 'The country’s emissions per capita will remain substantially lower than the global average. b. Fairness considerations, including reflecting on equity; c. How the Party has addressed Article 4, paragraph 3, of the Paris Agreement; Jamaica’s revised NDC represents a significant enhancement on its first NDC. Jamaica is taking steps to move towards an economy-wide target and has brought emissions from the land use change and forestry sector within its NDC for the first time. This reflects the importance of the forestry sector to Jamaica, which accounts for more than half of the island’s total land use, and the important commitments that the country has made to preserve and enhance these stocks. The country has also identified opportunities to deepen the emission reductions it delivers in the energy sector.', 'The country has also identified opportunities to deepen the emission reductions it delivers in the energy sector. These opportunities are part of an increasingly comprehensive approach to decarbonising this sector that covers both the electricity generation, as well as energy use sub- sectors. The result of these positive changes is that Jamaica’s latest NDC will approximately double in ambition.', 'The result of these positive changes is that Jamaica’s latest NDC will approximately double in ambition. By 2030, the emission reductions in d. How the Party has addressed Article 4, paragraph 4, of the Paris Agreement; e. How the Party has addressed Article 4, paragraph 6, of the Paris Agreement.Update of Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of Jamaica Page | 11 these two sectors of between 25.4 per cent (unconditional) and 28.5 per cent (conditional) implies that emissions in these sectors would be 1.8 to 2.0 MtCO2e lower than in the BAU scenario. This compares with a range of 1.1 to 1.5 MtCO2e in its previous NDC. This implies that the absolute level of ambition in Jamaica’s unconditional commitment has increased by more than 60% when comparing the First NDC and the updated NDC.', 'This implies that the absolute level of ambition in Jamaica’s unconditional commitment has increased by more than 60% when comparing the First NDC and the updated NDC. Jamaica has also prepared its NDC following ICTU guidance to provide information to facilitate clarity, transparency and understanding. 7. How the NDC contributes towards achieving the objectives of the Convention as set out in its Article 2 a. How the NDC contributes towards achieving the objective of the Convention as set out in its In 2015, Jamaica’s per capita GHG emissions were just 3.6 tCO2e per person, fully 45% below the global average of 6.6 tCO2e. Despite this low starting point, the country is now proposing an NDC that, under current projections, is consistent with virtually decoupling its economic growth from its covered emissions.', 'Despite this low starting point, the country is now proposing an NDC that, under current projections, is consistent with virtually decoupling its economic growth from its covered emissions. As such, despite being a developing country, Jamaica is playing its part in global emissions peaking as soon as possible, as set out under Article 4.1 of the Paris Agreement. b. How the NDC contributes towards Article 2, paragraph 1(a), and Article 4, paragraph 1, of the Paris Agreement.']