Will $MSTR have a blow-off top during this #bitcoin cycle? If so, when?

While there has been much speculation about MSTR seeing a GME level gamma squeeze this cycle, the constant black rain of Saylor's ATM selling has dampened expectations.

But... There are windows of time when it might possible.

Blackout Periods
It's widely believed that MicroStrategy observes a blackout period on capital market activity (i.e., no ATM selling or converts) during the 3-4 weeks prior to quarterly earnings releases, as evidenced by the tendency for mNAV to rise during this time.

If MSTR sticks to its historical earnings release schedule, the next 4 earnings dates will be on or near:

- Feb 4, 2025 (Jan blackout)
- May 1, 2025 (Apr blackout)
- Aug 1, 2025 (Jul blackout)
- Nov 1, 2025 (Oct blackout)

S&P 500 Inclusion
Ideally blackout periods would also overlap with the few weeks prior to possible S&P 500 inclusion dates, but none do. 

Possible inclusion dates are the 3rd week of June, September, and December. If anything, these are time periods when MSTR is likely to be most heavily selling into the ATM.

Bitcoin Cycles
If we get a typical bitcoin cycle, the peak would be expected to be late 2025. This makes the January and April blackout periods less likely. Although, the historic options expiry on Jan 17, 2025 is a noteworthy date to watch here.

I also find a July peak less likely because volume tends to be lower during summer months.

Conclusion
I expect to see several high-volume local tops and retraces in 2025. Nothing ever goes up in a straight line.

But if the above assumptions hold, the best candidate time period for "the" cycle blow-off top is sometime during the last few weeks of October, prior to the Q3 earnings release.

No guarantees, of course. The cycle could end sooner or later. Or cycles could stop being a thing. Or the bitcoin strategic reserve could break all our models.

Absolutely not financial advice, but here's hoping for one hell of an Uptober 2025.
#MSTR #bitcoin