Lengthy & detailed thread on the extended range forecast:
In the past #LaNina /Negative IOD years ,we have seen extended monsoon rainfall activities/late season cyclone activities. 
8 out of 10 years we see bay of bengal getting flourished by late season tropical activities .
So considering the past history & the prevailing  LaNina like conditions in the ocean & atmosphere & " MJO "convective phase over MTC/W.Pacific, there is a fair chance for Monsoon activities/Cyclonic activities over Bay of Bengal & South china sea to be pronounced in the coming weeks as well. 
 
 MJO induced anomalous EQ westerlies would overlap with prevailing lanina modified EQ westerlies to get enhanced . This low level equatorial westerlies, one of the  primary factors that support cyclogenesis will be active during Lanina/Negative years even during the fag end of the season. These conditions offers enough shear vorticity/cyclonic vorticity that leads to cyclogenesis during the late season. 
This would be completely absent in elnino/+IOD conditions leading to abrupt /early withdrawal
Now all the favorable conditions are seen falling in place in the recent forecast to trigger Bay of Bengal for a Tropical activities (Low/D/TC)..
 @ECMWF ens forecast pushing couple of remnant energies from south china sea into Bay of Bengal &offering fair probability to develop with a westward trajectory as of now for the next 2-3 weeks. It may /may not change in the future..
 Mid-lat westerly trough during the month of december plays a vital part in modulating the conditions in terms of steering sometimes it favors & sometimes it turns unfavorable so its more of a  double edged sword.. 
At the one end, the incoming Westerly trough passage would modify the steering flow (West to NW / N-NW& helps the system to gain in latitude from the low latitudes( 5-10N) during the Mid,end of Dec.  
At the other end , WD/Trough in Mid-lat westerlies sometimes extend more equatorward induce more westerlies  which will not allow the disturbances to move westward freely  ,push the system Eastward/NE. Usually this scenario happens after trough passage, especially during mjo suppressed phases when steering flow  turns weak. sometimes systems die in open waters.
The impact of Mid lat westerlies & trough associated with it will be very crucial in December..
so we need to wait & see that as well. 
As of now #LaNina  conditions remains favorable for the basin to be active. 
These are the conditions that is shown in the recent forecast. it may change as well.. so need to follow this closely in the coming days.
chart dc @ECMWF  @Weathernerds 
#Monsoon #NEM2024 #MJO #NEM2024 #TamilNadu #SriLanka #BayofBengal #Indianocean #monsoon2024 #TNRains #SriLanka #AndhraPradesh #Tropicalupdate #PuducherryRains #Puducherry
#LaNina