The role of technological innovation costs in energy efficiency growth in Eastern regions of Russia
The purpose of the article is to develop fuel and energy balances of eastern regions of Russia (Siberia, the Far East); using promising fuel and energy balances and statistical methods to predict energy intensity of the gross regional product (GRP) of the eastern regions and the costs of technological innovation required for the growth of energy efficiency. The study is based on the methods of economic and mathematical modeling, system analysis, correlation and regression analysis, balance methods. The methodical approach developed by the authors develops already existing theoretical knowledge in this subject area. Reporting and forecasting fuel and energy balances of Russian eastern regions have been compiled. A long-term forecast (for the period up to 2040) of fuel and energy balances and GRP energy intensity dynamics in the eastern regions of Russia have been fulfilled using the system of economic and mathematical models. To achieve the calculated levels of reducing the GRP energy intensity, a forecast of the increase in the technological innovation costs in the economy of this region has been made. The conducted study implies that GRP energy intensity in the eastern regions of Russia according to a moderate development scenario can be reduced by 56-75% (as compared with 2016). It will require both structural changes in the fuel and energy balance and an increase in the cost of technological innovations by the end of the period under investigation up to 4.4-4.7 billion dollars (by 31-38%). In the case of more optimistic development forecasts for the fuel and energy complex of the studied region (under the moderate scenario of socio-economic development), the GRP energy intensity may decrease by 1.8-2.2 times by 2050 as compared with 2016, which will require the growth of annual costs of technological innovations up to 4.8-5.1 billion dollars (by 41-50%).