RISK ASSESSMENT OF THE LOSS OF SUSTAINABILITY OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF A MUNICIPALITY USING AN EXPOLINEAR FUNCTION
The article proposes a methodology for assessing the risk of loss of stability of the socio-economic development of a municipality based on an assessment of the probability of changes in target indicators in the desired direction (on a given forecast horizon). Probability is estimated using a four-parameter non-linear trend model (called the expolinear trend), which generalizes linear, ex-ponential and logistic trends. This model has high enough flexibility to describe the dynamics of various socio-economic indicators during a change in the direction and type of trends, which is typ-ical for modern Russia. An example of the implementation of the methodology for assessing the sustainability of the development of the city of Saratov is given.