PROBABILISTIC METHOD FOR DETERMINING THE LIMIT CHARACTERISTICS OF ARRIVAL SITES AT THE DESTINATION AIRFIELD
The article offers a probabilistic method for determining a number of flight safety characteristics along the route, as well as limiting characteristics of air traffic intensity at the sections of departure and arrival at the airfield, which are also closely related to flight safety and efficiency. The need for such research is dictated by the Global air navigation concept, based on the use of modern means of communication, navigation and surveillance, based on characteristics and, consequently, requiring a similar approach from the air traffic organization. Navigation characteristics are based on probabilistic retention values that do not fall below 5 % and are the starting point of accuracy standards. The proposed probabilistic method is also based on a 5 % retention of the integrity of the arrival flow, which harmonizes the organization’s characteristics with the technical ones. The article discusses the types of potential conflict situations and methods for reducing the likelihood of their occurrence. Particular attention is paid to determining the permissible hourly intensity of the air traffic for potentially conflict situations of the “overtake” type on standard arrival routes and the limit of the ability of common sections of several STAR as “point merge” and “trombone” to cope with the disturbance of the arrival flow. These sections are considered as a Queuing system with queues, where such a limit is determined iteratively for the worst-case development of a flow disturbance. In both cases, both for common and private sections of all arrival STAR-s, the criterion for the limit of their throughput is 5 % retention of the integrity of the stream. The article concludes with an example of calculating the characteristics of arrival sections for specific conditions.