A PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT FOR THE CASE OF THE "AKADEMICHESKIY -VIZ" TRAM LINE (EKATERINBURG) CONSTRUCTION
The purpose the paper deals with a transport model of the designed tram line “Akademicheskiy - VIZ” of the city of Ekaterinburg. When determining transport demand the model takes into account the development of the territory of the district under investigation in the medium-term and long-term period. Methods. Predictive distribution of traffic flows mostly represented by public and individual transport has been carried out with the consideration of the introduction of paid parkings, change rate of population motorization, integration variants of future tram routes in the existing route network of public transport. Results. Current traffic situation has been used to verify the developed model. The following indicators have been assessed in the model verification: intensity of traffic flows and passenger traffic, their distribution by the sections of the transport network, mean correspondence time for individual and public transport, size of traffic jams on the road network sections adjacent to the tram line.