Models for scenario calculations assess the energy efficiency of the organizational and technological energy-saving solutions in the projects of construction of separate objects of capital construction
For the purpose of information base developing and scenario calculations of the energy efficiency of organizational and technological energy-saving solutions, a number of categories of isolated capital construction objects have been considered in the projects for the construction of separate capital construction projects. For each of these categories a corresponding information base has been formed, which is used in scenario calculations. For this purpose, the author, based on possible forecast scenarios for the development of the economic situation and the features of the implementation of the energy efficiency of organizational and technological energy-saving solutions in them, considers the following forecast scenarios for the development of the economic situation: pessimistic, optimistic and basic (main). These scenarios are considered for the stage of pre-design development and the formation of a construction project, the stage of development of a construction project, the stage of the construction project and the stage of operation of the building. At the same time, the author specially notes that all the parameters included in the calculation formulas for the predictive estimation of energy efficiency for each category of energy efficiency of organizational and technological energy-saving solutions and the overall energy efficiency of the building have a predictive and uncertain nature. As a consequence, such predictive parameters can be determined with sufficient degree of certainty only by specifying the intervals in which they can be located. In this connection, the author proposes to use the interval estimation technique developed in the theory of fuzzy sets for the range of problems of the present study. Such an estimation is characterized by setting the interval in which the estimated parameter is supposed to be located, and the more information is available on the values of parameters under consideration, the smaller the value of this interval and vice versa. Thus, the information base for assessing the energy efficiency of organizational and technological energy-saving solutions in projects for the erection of separate capital construction projects is proposed to be formed on the basis of the developed methodological scheme for determining the energy efficiency of these solutions based on the theory of fuzzy sets and taking into account the given forecast scenarios for the development of the economic situation. It is on the basis of this assessment that it is proposed to select, adjust, modify and improve these solutions during the project implementation.