Mathematical modelling of failures of electrical grid (10 kV) of autonomous energy systems with renewable distributed generation
Relevance of the work is caused by the improvement of the existing approaches to modeling possible component failures of autonomous power systems with distributed generation using renewable energy sources. The main aim of the study is to demonstrate the possibility of using the chronological method of calculating the system in modeling possible failures of the elements of the electric grid of autonomous energy systems with distributed generation using renewable energy sources; to show the significance of applying multi-year meteorological series in solving the problem of determining possible emergency failures of 10 kV overhead power lines transmitting electric power to a consumer; to identify possible patterns between the time intervals considering actinometric and wind energy indicators values at which the generation occurs and the number of failures of the elements of the electric network in question. The methods. The approach introduced was implemented step-by-step on the main provisions of the theory of system and multi-disciplinary studies using the approved mathematical models that allow processing, modeling both actinometric (direct, diffuse, summary solar radiation) and wind energy indicators with a fixed discrete step and binding to the real terrain. The authors use the well-known models of statistical processing of information and generation of random numbers in determining possible emergency failures of electrical network elements. A high-level Matlab programming language is used. The results. The authors carried out the analysis of overhead power line failures in the regions of Russia and Norway. The patterns of these failures are introduced, and the main causes and their percentages are given. The most common approaches to modeling of possible failures of 10 kV overhead lines are presented. The paper describes the main logical conditions of the approach proposed by the authors. The authors obtained the numerical results of modeling of possible failures of 10kV overhead power lines in the framework of autonomous energy systems with distributed generation using renewable energy sources. The results were obtained on the basis of calculation of a virtual autonomous energy system conventionally located in the settlement of Uzury in the Olkhon district of the Irkutsk region.