NEW REGULARITIES IN THE DYNAMICS OF TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS AND EXPONENTIAL EVOLUTION
Now the world is on the verge of a new technological revolution, but what will it be and what is the system of these revolutions? A number of authors interpret differently the current changes in the world of technology and the direction of their further development. In this paper, the task is to investigate the patterns of the dynamics of industrial revolutions and the accompanying exponential evolution of technology. The methodology of the study is based on a mathematical analysis of the works of previous authors, including the use of the historical method. The characteristic features of the phenomenon under consideration and their quantitative characteristics are revealed, hypotheses about possible regularities are formulated. Further, the mathematical processing of the available data is performed and new relationships between the parameters are revealed. Then, the obtained mathematical regularity is compared with the data of various authors considered earlier and the degree of their agreement is determined. When analyzing the patterns of exponential evolution, mathematical modeling of the key parameters of the corresponding industrial epochs is performed. New regularities in the dynamics of technological revolutions are revealed. It is shown that the dates of these revolutions are expressed by the geometric progression Tn = 50 + 1970-(1 - 2-n/2). Technological revolutions are connected in pairs and the time intervals between pairs are two times different. The phenomenon of exponential evolution of characteristic indicators of revolutions is studied, and the change in these indicators over a couple of technological epochs is described by a single exponential: 1896, 1932 (electricity generation) and 1957, 1975 (Moore's law and supercomputer performance). The results of the research can be used, first of all, in the field of forecasting and long-term strategic planning for the development of science and technology. In view of the very high importance of the results obtained and the availability of alternative opinions, it is also important to conduct studies on a comprehensive verification of the results and hypotheses. The precise identification of the direction of industrial revolutions is important for the economy, as it provides guidance to inventors, innovators, investors and legislators in their industrial development activities. The absence of such guidelines leads to a delay in the rates of growth of the corresponding technology, stagnation of social development and losses amounting to many trillions of dollars. In different countries, the processes of understanding the leading areas of technological development and the mastery of new technologies are proceeding at different rates [6, 89-93]. The laggards are forced to purchase expensive innovative products from more developed countries, and themselves to produce cheaper goods and services characteristic of the previous technological epochs [7, 64-67]. As a result, these countries are poorer. Therefore, from the point of view of the efficiency of the labor economy, it is important to correctly understand the dynamics of technological revolutions and the current trends in their movement. The value of this work is that it is aimed at quantifying the technological changes that occur and gives grounds for distinguishing revolutionary changes from exponential evolution. The work can be used by specialists in the field of labor economics to predict and plan GDP per capita growth taking into account future radical changes in the field of technological development and the formation of a knowledge economy.