Prediction models for record results in the men''s marathon
Forecast (foresight) - predicting the future with the scientific methods, as well as the prediction result. In the sphere of sports the forecasting tasks are almost always solved in the planning of sports training, occupying the central place in the scientific research. The need in forecasting is determined with the desire to know the future events, although, the absolute accuracy cannot be achieved in principle, coming out from the basis of statistical, probabilistic, empirical, philosophical principles of the vital existence. In the study, based on the research of the dynamics of the results of the winners of the Olympic Games and analysis of the growth in the world records in the men's marathon, there is an attempt to establish the sporting progression patterns in the discipline, including the identification of the causes that determine these changes, and to carry out an attempt to build up the mathematical and statistical models for forecasting the record results in the foreseeable future. The theoretical solution of this problem allows improving the methodology of sports training in the marathon on the basis of the revealed laws