THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON THE SUSTAINABILITY OF RUSSIAN FOREST ECOSYSTEMS FROM THREAT OF INCREASE PESTS AND DISEASES
The purpose of the assessment of climate changes influence on the forest ecosystems stability is to identify vulnerabilities and risks in the field of study, understanding cause-effect relationships to develop a strategy against negative consequences. Sustainability - is the measure of the system's ability to resist of climate change effects (threats) and to cope with them. In this case forest ecosystems stability is a function of climate change and its sensitivity. For the first time, method of estimating system stability for investigation of the forestry problems, developed in Germany, was used. Threat indicators (mass outbreaks of pests and diseases) caused by climate change were calculated, and the value of forest ecosystem sustainability in Russian Federation is determined. It was found that the main forest area is sufficiently resistant to investigated factors. Data analysis on sanitary situation of forest vegetation zones of the Russian Federation indicated that, in some regions, the threat of loss because of forest diseases and pests in the forest is minimal one. Forest areas of the European-Ural part of Russia are the most vulnerable to insect pests and forest diseases. A linear trend of increasing average annual temperature anomalies at the surface and the average annual precipitation anomalies are correlates with the trend of forest destruction from pests and diseases. It could be one of the factors contributing to the decrease of forest ecosystems stability to this threat. Timely sanitary measures will minimize the loss of forest vegetation from diseases and pests and, to some extent, neutralize the adverse effects of climate variability.