Use of prognostic WRF model for weather forecasting in Tomsk region
The work is devoted to the contemporary WRF models for weather forecasting. The model is implemented on the supercomputer SKIF-Cyberia of the Computational Centre of Tomsk State University. Using the computer, the parameterisation of physical processes was chosen and the results of calculation were visualised. The first results on the test of the WRF model in real terms for the territory of Tomsk region were obtained. The results of the forecast in the form of meteorological fields are represented as coloured areas. Each area is a certain range of values. Temperature and pressure in Tomsk region for different seasons, especially for cases involving adverse weather events, were predicted. We also studied the forecast zones of heavy precipitation in the summer period. For each of the synoptic cases the WRF program calculated data several times. With each new start-up parameters varied. By the successfully modelled calculations the accuracy of weather forecasting at stations in Tomsk, Alexandrovskoe, Kolpashevo and Pudino was estimated by the average and mean square errors. We obtained the following results. 1. Implementation of the WRF weather forecast models in Tomsk region showed good prospects for its use in various weather, including adverse and dangerous weather events. 2. The calculated characteristics of the accuracy of the model can be considered satisfactory. 3. For the warm season best accuracy of the forecasts is achieved by the use of the following set of parameterisations of physical processes: microphysics - WRF scheme with 5 classes of hydrometeors (WSM5); long- and short-wave radiation - RRTMG scheme; surface layer - Janjic similarity scheme; underlying surface - Noah LSM scheme; planetary boundary layer - Mellor-Yamada- Janjic (MYJ) scheme; clouds - Betts-Miller scheme. 4. For the cold season the best were the same parameterisations, but the difference is in the inclusion of the snow cover (ifsnow = 1). 5. In the calculations the transfer of heat and moisture from the surface (isfflx = 1), the clouds in the calculation of radiation (icloud = 1) were taken into account, the number of layers in the soil is equal to five (num_soil_layers). 6. Predicting summer meteoparameters showed the best result. 7. The work must be continued for the study of possibilities of WRF models to forecast weather elements. The work is of interest to improve the mezoscale weather forecast on territories similar in physical-geographical conditions.