Prediction of sales based on minimax scenarios in varying elasticity
The article addresses the issues of price regulation in the context of declining incomes and demand of the population; modern methods of increasing demand from the point of ethical, legal and environmental impacts, including personalized dynamic pricing (PDP), neuromarketing, and their conflicts with global environmental goals are also researched. The methodology for forecasting demand depending on the price changes, taking into account the equity factor in conjunction with the elasticity indicator and a new approach to using dynamics and retrospective elasticity variability is developed. A minimax scenario approach combining extrapolations with predicted probable deviations from existing patterns that allow eliminating uncertainty in the changes of elasticity indicators is proposed. Various criteria in identifying the amplitude of probable deviations are investigated. It made it possible to determine the volume of projected sales and its possible deviations in the case of the maximum and minimum possible values of elasticity. The resulting technique allows businesses to anticipate the consequences and be prepared to possible scenario changes in the conditions of uncertainty and risk.