MEDIUM-RANGE HAIL FORECAST BASED ON GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC MODEL OUTPUT DATA
Introduction. The forecast of dangerous weather phenomena, including hail, is becoming more and more popular not only for services to combat hail, but also for other sectors of the national economy. This is facilitated by the intensification of weather processes due to climate warming and the operational availability of the results of modeling the Earth's atmosphere, in particular, the values of stratification according to the global model (GFS NCEP). This paper discusses the possibility of predicting hail with a lead time of 132 hours using discriminant analysis. The success of the hail forecast is assessed by the criteria of the forecast quality. Materials and methods of research. The research materials were the output data of the global atmospheric model GFS NCEP with a lead time of 132 hours. Discriminant functions were used to predict the phenomenon of «hail» and «non-hail». The results of the forecast were compared with the data of observations on the fall of hail provided by the paramilitary services for active influence on meteorological and other geophysical processes, located within the radius of representativeness of the actual data of the aerological sounding at the Mineralnye Vody station. To assess the success of the hail forecast, the conjugacy table is compiled and the forecast quality criteria are calculated. Research results and their discussion. The results of the calculations showed that the hail forecast with a lead time of 132 hours meets all the criteria for the quality of forecasts. The forecast success rates were good. Thus, the accuracy of the hail forecast was ~ 70 %. Conclusion. Studies have shown that the proposed approach to forecasting hail from the data of the global atmospheric model does not lead to a noticeable decrease in the quality of forecasts when the lead time is increased to five days.