Short-term forecasts of the Azov Sea level variations during the iceless period in 2017
Short-range forecasts of the Azov Sea level fluctuations with a lead time of 48 hours are calculated using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model twice a day at 00:00 and 12:00 for 9 months (March-November) in 2017 according to the dynamic atmospheric forcing (wind and pressure) specified on the sea surface. The model grid spacing of 0.5 nautical miles was used with a prescribed atmospheric forcing with a grid spacing of 7 km using the COSMO model from the LM17 archive database of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia. Graphs of temporal variations in the sea level were obtained from observations and forecasts for each of 9 months at four coastal stations. The estimates of the sea level forecast skill were obtained using data of 6-hour sea level measurements at four coastal stations. The results of the comparison of sea level forecasts with observations showed that the model successfully simulates temporal variations in the sea level and satisfies the Roshydromet requirements for the accuracy of sea level forecasts at Taganrog and Yeisk stations.