SCENARIO RISK MODELING OF RURAL ELECTRIC MAINS
The research goal is to evaluate the efficiency of electric installation operation; the efficiency should be determined primarily by ensuring reliability and safety at reasonable costs of maintenance and repair. The goal may be achieved by the methods of reliability improvement of engineering systems, diagnostic instrumentation and limited operation life forecasting. The analysis and evaluation of integral risk is connected with receiving the information about the system status. When there are statistical data at the identification of the affecting factors, the risk evaluation problems are solved by the probability theory methods. When there is no initial information, the uncertainty related to human factor and the environment should be eliminated. Such a problem may be solved by the method of scenario analysis which enables verifying the system study with prevailing focus on quantitative assessment of scenario models. Nowadays there is no integral methodology of scenario studies and there is no definition of the term ‘scenario’ either. Within this research, not intending to give a generalized definition, a scenario is understood as a certain hypothetical predictive model which is adequate to the real subject of the research. The main goal of scenario studies is to present the objective information about anthropogenic risks of rural electric mains as a methodological basis for the development of the guidelines on ensuring safety level standards. The quantitative assessment of anthropogenic risk level of rural electric mains should be based on integral risk expressed as a vector which component is money damage caused by electric power supply interruptions, electricity quality reduction, fire break-out, electrical injury of people and electric pathologies in animals.