INFLUENCE OF URBANIZATION ON THE INCREASE OF THERMAL RESOURCES OF THE SOUTH OF BELARUS
Results of an estimation of the contribution of urbanization to the increase in thermal resources in the south of Belarus, obtained according to agroclimatic directories, by calculations of the sums of temperatures with use of monthly average data, and also by means of models of multiple linear regress have been presented. Comparison of agroclimatic directories data regarding sums of temperatures above 10 °С for various observation periods for city and rural meteorological stations of the south of Belarus has shown, that warming process in cities amplifies under the influence of the effect of urbanization.The latter is estimated as a difference of differences of sums of temperatures on the periods and categories of stations and depending on the chosen base period averages 81 and 103 °С. Similar results have been gained when analyzing sums of temperatures for warm months of the year. Thus the most convincing are comparative estimations for stations of the south of Belarus and the north of Ukraine. Higher sums of temperatures in comparison with southern Belarus find a natural explanation in more southern geographical position of Ukraine. However higher, than in Ukraine, the sums of temperatures at city stations of Belarus, undoubtedly, are due to the existence in the south of Belarus of powerful city heat islands. An indirect acknowledgement to this is belonging of all considered city stations of southern Belarus (Brest, Pinsk, Mozyr, Gomel) to large and big cities (population over 100 thousand people). At the same time among the Ukrainian stations to this category refers only Chernigov. Estimations of the effect of urbanization have been obtained by the equations of plural regress which connect thermal indicators for 1986-2005 for meteorological stations of Belarus with their geographical width, by a longitude, and also absolute height of district. As estimations regressive results were considered only. For sums of temperatures above 10 °С at stations their absolute values at Brest, Gomel and Pinsk stations their absolute values are 135, 127, and 84 °С, that exceeds value of a standard deviation (63 °С). Abnormal high values of the sums of temperatures on meteorological stations of the south of Belarus are caused by local effect of urbanization which is shown in regional estimations of change heat supply during the modern period. In the light of the presented results the registration of new, fourth agroclimatic area in territory of Belarus at present has no scientific substantiations.