Modelling the opportunities for territorial business development in regions
The development of retail business in Moscow and other large cities arising from the increasing number of sales and service locations, is gradually declining due to oversaturation in competitive networks and the difficulties in finding the premises to be rented for shops. Against this backdrop, there is no clear understanding of methods which are to be used for attracting the client traffic, expanding the sales funnel and increasing the margin of an existing business. The problem is supposed to be solved by using the author’s waterfall (top-down) model, in which the development process is viewed as a flow passing through consecutive phases, namely, the analysis of requirements, the mathematical calculations, the comparison of results and data-based decision-making. The mechanism of the model functioning consists of two parallel workflows. The first workflow involves the analysis of the external market environment and the consolidation of the relevant parametric information on competing companies, while in the second one the mathematical calculations are performed to model the optimal territorial location of shops, taking account of predefined initial conditions and restrictions. Based on the evaluation results, the top management decides to merge with a rival business or establish their own business units within the area of interest, taking account of the geographical distribution of competing shops, the desired territorial presence in the specified area, valuation and financial profitability