On improvement of the macrocirculation method for long-range weather forecasting in the Kara Sea
The complex studies allowed obtaining a basis for developing the method of taking into account the long-term trends in atmospheric processes in order to improve the methodology of long-term macrocirculation forecasting for the Kara Sea with the lead time of 1-3 months. The verification of forecasts based on the presented method demonstrated a relatively reliable skill score. The method is efficient as compared with climatic estimates. In accordance with the resolution of the Roshydromet Central Methodological Committee for Hydrometeorological and Heliogeophysical Forecasts (October 27, 2017), the method is recommended for operational usage in the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute as an auxiliary one.