ASSESSMENT OF COMPETITIVENESS OF ENERGY OPTIONS TO MAJOR CONSUMERS IN THE FACE OF UNCERTAINTY
A methodical approach for assessing the comparative effectiveness and risks of options for energy and fuel supply of the main consumers (boilers, power plants, transportation, etc.) using Monte-Carlo method. Feature of this approach is the combination of price elasticity estimates energy demand with optimization of energy and fuel supply in the region. The elasticity is determined separately for different groups of consumers in the region, taking into account the so-called «consumer effect» - the influence of fuel quality and the technical and economic characteristics of consumers. The results of forecast calculations for some Russian regions in suspected conditions, energy and fuel supply for the period 2020-2025 period.