Population Dynamics: Mathematical Modeling and Reality
Model reduction technique applied in mathematical modeling for the analysis of natural phenomena inevitably raises the question about whether simulation results ref lect real processes. The paper presents the analysis of problems associated with a comparison of the results obtained with mathematical modeling of population processes and data collected while monitoring natural ecosystems. These problems arise because it is often not possible even based on monitoring data from a particular ecosystem to substantiate the type of dependencies between variables that determine population dynamics, as well as to justify the choice of numerical values assigned to the parameters of mathematical models. In this paper, we propose an approach to take into account the impact of the whole complex of biotic and abiotic factors on population dynamics in mathematical modeling. Consideration and application of ecosystem monitoring data in mathematical models of population dynamics is the core of .this approach. This approach would make it possible, in particular, to assess the degree of inf luence of individual environmental factors both on variations in population abundance recorded during monitoring and on those characteristics of population processes that are not directly measured during monitoring, but are the result of mathematical modeling.