DEVELOPMENT OF INDUCED SEISMICITY IN MINING TASHTAGOL IRON ORE DEPOSIT: RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS AND FORECAST
Using the example of the Tashtagol iron ore deposit, an approach has been implemented that makes it possible to reveal the space-time relationships between the parameters of random and deterministic processes of various physical nature, which occur in the rock mass during large-scale mining operations. The approach consists in cross correlation analysis of long time series “number and energy of weak and moderate dynamic events” and “variation of stress field parameters” in different areas of geomechanical space of the object under study. According to the data of automated microseismic control system of the mine (from 1989 to 2019) and calculation results based on the developed 3D model of the deposit, the values of correlation coefficients r between number N of seismic events with an energy of up to 3 kJ and increments of the maximum tangential T and average S stresses in different blocks were determined. The regression dependences N(T) and N(S) constructed for statistically significant r were verified by comparing the predicted and real values of N in 2020. The obtained dependences can be used for geomechanical justification of reserves mining using forward calculations of the stress state and, on this basis, for assessing seismic activity level using the found correlation dependences.