DEVELOPMENT OF METEOROLOGICAL CRITERIONS FOR ASSESSMENT OF AREAS OF FRUIT CROPS CULTIVATION IN THE NORTH CAUCASUS
For each administrative territories of the North Caucasus the criterions of the forecast of repeatability of annual minimum air temperatures are developed early. The simplified system of forecasting of fructification regularity of fruit crops in the South of Russia on limiting factors of winter and spring periods with use of graphic and mathematical models is offered. However, the placement of fruit crops in the South of Russia does not always correspond to climatic conditions, first of all - to the winter and spring periods. The purpose of our work is development of meteorological criterions for an assessment of areas of apricot cultivation. Objects of research are meteorological indicators of winter and spring periods in the various administrative regions of the North Caucasus. The research are carried out using a technique of estimation of climatic winter conditions for fruit crops in the Crimea. To resolve the question of fruit crop's placement in the concrete region of the North Caucasus, we defined the repeatability of annual minimum air temperatures. The calculations of their repeatability are presented as nomograms that allow to reveal the structure of average values for the whole entire period of observation. The offered nomograms allow to define the probability of critical minimum temperature in any point of the North Caucasus and to predict a regularity of fruit crop's fruiting according to their overwintering. It is possible to define the probability of fruit crops ruin with use of offered nomograms in any region of the North Caucasus from adverse conditions of winter and spring periods. In this research the probability of ruin of apricot floral buds from sharp temperature fluctuations in January - February under conditions of Krasnodar is calculated and the possible frost resistance of apricot plants in this area is defined.