The agent-based model of conflicts students KCR
The final work in the series of four articles devoted to the development of a methodology for a comprehensive study of latent conflicts of students (on the basis of the Karachay-Cherkess University). From empirical measurement, development indicators, characterizing the possibility of conflicts with various parties and identifies their relationship, to the definition of integrative indices of affective and cognitive components. At the final stage, reflected in the present work, on the basis of these components is constructed an index of the overall conflicts. For this purpose, a stochastic psychosemantic model, developed based on the concept of typicality, in the framework of the catastrophe theory. It allows taking into account the measurement uncertainty and instability of the respondents '' opinions. The index of total conflicts is modeled by a random variable. Statistical characteristics of which were determined by Monte Carlo simulation using agent - oriented simulation package AnyLogic. Offered in a series of technique can be used not only to monitor but also to predict the situation and simulate the impact of various adverse factors, or Vice versa, proactive assessment of impacts. The paper also shows the specific results for the investigated sample of students KCR. In particular, it was found that the subgroup of the risk of formation of conflictogenic processes includes 15% of all respondents.