Statistical studies of barley production in Ryazan region and the forecast of crop productivity
Problem and purpose. Oats and winter rye are popular and economically viable crops, often cultivated in crop rotations. The world produces over 30 million tons of these crops per year. In our country, they are cultivated on an area of 3,500 million hectares, but on the territory of Ryazan region they are grown on small areas, although the potential for oats and winter rye is high, and if the technology of their cultivation is followed, the introduction of innovative techniques and the desire of producers to digitalize agriculture, one can obtain high stable yields. The advantage of these crops is their excellent response to applied fertilizers. Thus, taking into account the value of crops, conducting research on the production of oats and winter rye in Ryazan region and long-term forecasting of crop yields in crop rotation based on calculations of the agroecosystem simulation model is relevant and well-timed. Methodology. On the basis of the developed research program, well-known research methods have been adopted, starting from theoretical and ending with experimental ones using platform solutions and digital technologies available to its residents in the Internet. Results. Oats and winter rye account for an insignificant sown area in the region -1.5 and 0.3 %, respectively. In addition, there is a tendency to reduce sown areas from 6.9 % to 4.6 % of all oat areas and from 15.9 % to 7.9 % of all rye areas in the Central Federal District. The authors used the AMPRA simulation model and a portable automatic weather station. The yield forecast for oats and winter rye was carried out according to a mathematical scheme. The HTI was predicted using a parabolic trend, taking into account the cyclicity of solar activity, established by the time series of temperature. When plotting dependencies, the following conditions were observed: the amount of theoretical information on crop yields was much greater than adjustable parameters and the adequacy of the models was checked using independent material. The criterion for choosing the structure of the model was to minimize deviations of calculated Yt and experimental Yp data. The analysis of the obtained models agrees well with the yield forecast for oats and winter rye, HTI (heat and precipitation), and qualitative characteristics of soils with experimental data. The average deviations of Yt and Yp were 2.1-2.8 %. The authors have developed an organic fertilizer based on animal waste, 2 applications for the invention have been registered (registration No. 2021136608 and 2021136640, authors I.I. Sadovaya, O.A. Zakharova, O.V. Cherkasov, F.A. Golubenko, D.E. Kucher, Yu.V. Lomova, E.N. Konyaev), which will increase crop yields, preserve and replenish soil fertility. The calculated indicators provided data on the possibility of increasing crop yields in crop rotation up to 50 %. Conclusion. The results of studies obtained during statistical processing of theoretical and experimental data on the yield of oats and winter rye in crop rotation using computer program Statistika 10, the Ampra simulation model, meteorological elements recorded by an automatic weather station, established a steady increase in the indicator with the introduction of innovative techniques in crop cultivation technologies. Thus, the introduction of a science-based dose of organic fertilizer based on animal waste, taking into account soil and biological characteristics, will increase the estimated yield of crops in the crop rotation up to 50 %.