ASSESSMENT OF POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE EL NINO AND LA NINA REPEATABILITY BY THE END OF THE XXI CENTURY USING THE CMIP6 MODELS
The quality of SST anomalies revealed in the equatorial Pacific associated with El Niño (EN) and La Niña (LN) in the CMIP6 project models (KIOST-ESM, MIROC-ES2L and INM-CM4-8) was evaluated by comparing with real events in the period 1950 to 2014 using the ERSSTv5 data sets. It is shown that the ensemble model estimation of the number, intensity and duration of EN and LN corresponds quite well to real conditions. On this basis, the corresponding model ensemble calculations of their future possible changes in 2021-2085 relative to the historical 1950-2014 period were carried out for two possible scenarios: business-as-usual (SSP2-4.5) and negative (SSP5-8.5).