Risk management in supply administration
Liberalization of the electricity and the introduction of competitive markets has put supply administration, which is almost or completely impossible under current energy market conditions that contribute to risk of reduced reliability of electricity supply and higher prices enlargement, into leading position in energy consumption among consumer groups. There is possibility of various "risk" situations under market conditions due to degrees of freedom. Therefore, problem of supply administration and reliability of the power system operation becomes more important. Administration of any object is performed in the form of control systems. Risk management system assists in identifying and assessing possible risks as well as choosing a method and an instrument to minimize them, developing strategies and modes of behavior. Specific character of the energy sector is instability of processes that has stochastic nature (such as human factors, climatic conditions, political situation). The main difficulties in assessing and checking the risk appear due to uncertainty of input parameters that meantime influence decision results. In short, current, traditional methods are poorly suitable for companies risk analysis, because they fail to cover instability of processes and the vagueness of human reasoning and behavior. To solve this problem we offered the theory of fuzzy sets in the risk-management that include analysis of qualitative variables, using of fuzzy input data and linguistic criteria, overcoming the shortcomings and limitations of existing risk assessment methods, simulating the system and comparing them with the required degree of accuracy. Risk assessment and the use of appropriate administration techniques under integrated approach in the energy sector will allow building the optimal ratio "risk magnitude - risk premium" strategy of behavior on the market of electric power engineering entities and consumers. Despite the shortcomings and limitations of the theory, the method of fuzzy sets has been recognized as an advanced and accurate method presenting precise results, by several major international companies. Ukrainian energy may win using this method due to its statistical information for objective assessments.