Retrospective estimation and projection of carbon balance of forests of Primorskii kray
The retrospective calculation of carbon balance of forests of Primorskii kray for 1988-2015 is performed using the ROBUL system. The materials of State forest registry and archive materials of state forest fund accounts were used as input data. Forests of Primorskii kray were carbon source to atmosphere in 1988 and 1993, loosing 0.59±1.35 and 0.98±1.25 Mt C year-1 respectively. Reforms of the beginning of 1990-th years led to decrease of forest harvesting rates and to diminish of related carbon losses. As a result, forests of Primorskii kray in 1998 became the carbon sink 1.90±1.00 Mt C year-1, in 2003 3.28±0.90 Mt C year-1 and stay at sink level 3 Mt C year-1 till present time. The projection of carbon balance of forests of Promorskii kray for 2015-2065 is received using modeling system ROBUL-M. If rates of forest harvesting and forest fires will not change in future, the decrease of carbon sink is projected to 2.75 Mt C year-1 in 2020, 2.14 in 2030, 1.67 in 2040, 1.30 in 2050 and 0.86 Mt C year-1 in 2065. The decrease of carbon sink is explained by increase of mean age of forest stands, leading to decrease of natural increments of forest carbon pools.