Forecasting the capacity of the market of oil and gas and petrochemical industries through the model of interspecific interaction Volterra trays
The article looks at the prospective trends in the sectors of the extracting and processing sectors of the Russian economy, related to the change in market capacity by the forms of ownership of companies in the medium term. Based on the analysis of the results of variant forecast calculations, as well as the experience of developed and large developing countries, the hypothesis is based on the fact that the growth of the technological potential of the industry is associated with an increase in the role of state management in the national economy, including the increase in the share of state property. In order to confirm the hypothesis, the article carried out a structural and dynamic analysis of statistical data on the extracting and processing sectors of the economy, which revealed a stable trend in the extractive sector of the economy, minimization of state property and its growth in the manufacturing sector of the economy. The review of existing prediction models and justification of the use of the inter-species interaction model Lotka-Volterra "predator" victim as a tool for forecasting the capacity of the oil and gas market taking into account the specific form of ownership of the enterprises under study. Adaptation of the "predator-prey" model allowed to carry out the forecast of development of the market capacity of the oil and gas and petrochemical industries of the Russian Federation taking into account the forms of ownership of enterprises. For prediction, the classical system of Lotka-Volterra equations was used, with the author's interpretation of the nutritional and reproduction coefficients. The empirical base of the research was the data of the stock exchange on the quotations and traded volumes of the 20 largest oil and gas enterprises and 16 largest petrochemical enterprises, as well as official Russian and foreign statistics. The authors focus on such an important aspect of the economic organization of economic activity as a form of ownership. The article concludes that in countries rich in natural resources, the economic model of organizing economic activity is effective in the case of state ownership in the sectors of the extractive sector of the economy, the private sector in manufacturing, while maintaining the functions of the state in coordinating the market and stimulating technological change.