Development of a technique for regional climate probabilistic projections over the territory of Russia aimed at building scenarios of climate impacts on economy sectors. Part 1: Task definition and numerical experiments
As the first stage of a multipurpose research of current and projected climate changes over the territory of Russia and corresponding impacts on conditions of the economic activity and development perspectives of major economy sectors, a task is set of detailed quantification of the projections in the geographical and probability spaces. A solution of this task can be achieved through massive ensemble simulations using high-resolution system of climate and climate impact models. The central component of the system is the MGO regional climate model providing the full coverage of the territory of Russia with the 25-km horizontal resolution and using as boundary conditions results of ensemble simulations with MGO atmospheric general circulation model for different distributions of sea surface temperature and sea ice. As a result of the simulations detailed quantitative projections are obtained. The most important of them, from the view point of the objectives of this study, are projections of indices characterizing the climate system extremity.