THE NEW CYCLE OF HAZARDOUS PROCESSES IN THE HIGHLANDS OF THE CENTRAL CAUCASUS
The article assumes the processes associated with the accumulation and movement of clastic material - landslide-talus and debris flows, being cyclical and are subject to the complex effect of several factors. The novelty is their joint consideration. The cycle of extreme exogenous processes (EEP) development, during which some processes stipulate each others, can last for several years. The authors analyze the main factors in the formation of extremal exogenic processes: air temperature, precipitation, frost weathering and seismicity at the end of the previous cycle and during the current one, especially in 2019 - early 2020 in the Cherek Balkarsky river basin. The authors conduct monitoring research since2009 there. It is assumed that the processes associated with the accumulation and movement of clastic material - landslide-talus, talus and debris flows are cyclical and are subject to a complex effect of several factors. Novelty of the research is in joint consideration of these factors. The cycle of EEP development, during which some factors determine others, can last for several years. Here the period is between 3 and 6 years. A prerequisite for the completion of the previous EEP cycle in the summer of 2017, greatly beforehand, was several factors joint activity. It was revealed that the state of the main EEР factors in 2019 did not contribute to their intensity, accumulation of clastic material and active flow of a new cycle. Factors for the winter season 2019/20 suggest a low activity of exogenic processes in the summer of 2020.