REVIEW OF MODERN SOFTWARE COMPLEXES AND DIGITAL TWIN CONCEPT FOR FORECASTING EMERGENCY SITUATIONS IN OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY
Number and scale of accidents is increasing because of technological processes complexity, this negatively affects people, environment, and is not economically beneficial for enterprises. In this regard, there is a need for good application of existing risk management methods at enterprises and modernization of safe work organization, taking into account real state of a hazardous production facility.One of the ways to reduce risk level of an enterprise is to analyze existing risks, which consists of risks identification, consequences assessment and creation of preventive measures, measures to reduce existing risk level. Development of various scenarios of an accident, establishment of consequences and probabilities of negative incidents implementation is the basis for hazard management.In this paper, is analyzed application of hazard analysis method «Consequence Tree». The method is widely used for oil and gas facilities, influencing reduction of emergency situations and allowing detection of situation leading to serious consequences. In process of constructing tree, is used a system of quantitative and qualitative methods of hazards determining to define probability of the initial action.The article provides an overview of some software systems that allow to visualize risks analyzing steps and minimize calculation process based on 3D modeling. In oil and gas and refining industries, the FLACS software tool is used to simulate most well-known ignition and toxic emission scenarios in terrestrial conditions. It is possible to assess effect of hazardous or harmful substances on production facility in domestic TOXI+Risk software package. Phast Lite is used to simulate consequences of accidents with ability to create danger that allow to study entire sequence of events from accident itself to damage.In addition, the article defines digital twin. The digital twin is an integrated model of a real object, providing constant interaction and data exchange with a real object, for object behavior modeling, forecasting and choosing the most appropriate and effective scenario of technological process. This technology is promising for production management and for safe operational resource extension.