Using the method of normalized amplitude for the analysis of traffic flow intensity
The article considers the results of applying the normalized Hurst span method (R/S analysis) to analyze a time series of data on the intensity of traffic flow in order to identify the presence of a trend (persistence) and possible changes of the intensity of traffic on the roads of a modern city in the future. Data on the number of passing cars for seven days (one week) was obtained using the azimuth 2.0 KIPT complex installed on one of the busiest roads in Perm. The intensity of the traffic flow was estimated every 10 minutes, that corresponds to 1008 terms of the time series (one week). Samples of 50, 100, 250, 500, and 1000 terms were used for the analysis. The results of processed data demonstrate the necessity to adapt the normalized span method for the purpose of analyzing the intensity of traffic flows, adjusting and developing this method taking into account the peculiarities of car traffic on city streets. The considered approach may be promising in terms of developing tools for forecasting and planning work on the reconstruction of the existing road network and for the modeling of new highways.