Navigational accident analysis using the modern catastrophe theory
The paper presents a method to analyze a ship's route in terms of safety and optimality. The route is examined using the characteristic coefficients that represent route's properties essential for assessment of these aspects. The paper also presents a method to estimate the future route based on the prescribed route and the existing discrepancy between the actual route and the prescribed one. With such estimation technique and using the characteristic coefficients it is possible to determine the long-term effects of the discrepancy. The route is considered as a dynamic characteristic of the ship, evolving over time. Peculiarities of the development of the ship's route when striving for a stable or catastrophic state from the standpoint of the modern catastrophe theory are discussed. A geometric interpretation of evolutionary dynamics involves the use of cognitive images. As an example, the paper provides analysis of the Costa Concordia's accident using the described method in order to determine the effects of the route discrepancy. A comparison is made of the prescribed route with the actual one that the crew planned to move.