The Evaluation of the Accuracy of Mathematical Modeling Characteristics of an Influenza Epidemic
The accuracy of the theoretical results obtained using the mathematical model by comparing them with data for total morbidity in 45 Russian cities during the epidemic of influenza A(H1N1)v and the seasonal epidemic and acute respiratory viral infection in the period from September 2009 to January 2010 is investigated. A significant correlation was revealed between the number of the city inhabitants S 0 and the parameter v, which characterizes the probability of infection. However, the attempts to use this correlation for making a mathematical prediction of influenza epidemics were unsuccessful. This is due to the great sensitivity of the mathematical model to inevitable errors in setting the values of the model input parameters. To overcome these shortcomings of the mathematical model, a new method was proposed in which the function f(t) = A - B · t that is an approximation of the product v · S(t) and calculated from the observed data. Is set instead of the values of individual parameters v and S 0. The test calculations of influenza epidemics using this method gave satisfactory results.