Sensitivity of methane emissions from Western Siberian wetlands to climate changes: multi-model estimations.
The emission scheme of methane cycle, which takes into account response of methane flux from wetlands to climate variations, is coupled with the dynamic model of heat and moisture transport processes in soil. Simulations of methane emissions and main characteristics of thermal and hydrologic regimes in soil are performed with the coupled model for the region of Western Siberia (55-65 °N, 65-85 °E) for the 21st century forced by atmospheric parameters from the ensemble of climate models. On average, simulated methane emissions under the SRES A1B scenario grows more than twofold to the end of 21st century - from 9 MtCH4/yr to 21 MtCH4/yr. Sensitivity of simulated methane emissions to input parameters of atmospheric forcing from the ensemble of climate models is analyzed. It is shown that this sensitivity is large with respect to the surface air temperature variations.