Multifractal Models of Impact on the Aquatic Ecosystem: Response, Risk, Management
Natural and natural-anthropogenic ecosystems and landscapes are complex emergent systems. For their adequate description, assessment of the state and control, it is necessary to use the power-law distribution of parameters. Deterministic (averaged) parameters greatly simplify the description of such a system and do not allow to fully determine the probability of negative changes (risk) occurring in the ecosystem under anthropogenic impacts. The use of the fractal approach in ecological research solves this problem. The aim of the work is to develop a multifractal model of the impact on the aquatic ecosystem based on the principles of self-organization of the natural ecosystem. The total response of ecosystems to anthropogenic impact is proposed to be assessed by superimposing its multifractal image on the selected forms of critical organization of the ecosystem, which meets the limits of self-healing of the structure of hydrobiocenosis. Violation of ecosystem self-organization is equivalent to violation of fractality, which ensures its viability in changing environmental conditions. The formalization of indicators regulating the maximum permissible environmental load (PDN), when human economic activity does not exceed the thresholds of ecosystem stability, has been carried out. This makes it possible, using the example of the algoremediation of reservoirs, to provide the most acceptable parameters of economic activity and control over the restoration of technogenically disturbed aquatic ecosystems.