Methodological approaches to quantifying money laundering
Subject. The article investigates the anti-money laundering issue and measuring money laundering. In Russia, this issue has not been explored rigorously enough: the widespread opinion in the works of domestic economists about the Russian specifics of laundering of proceeds derived from criminal activity impeded the adaptation of Western models. Objectives. We consider the specifics of Russian conditions for money laundering, identify methodological approaches to assessing the quantitative parameters of the banking sector's demand for cash, which correlates with the scale of money laundering. Methods. We apply the systems approach, formal logic, comparative analysis, correlation and regression analysis, and other methods. Results. We present the results of the analysis of existing methods for assessing the volume of money laundering in foreign countries, demonstrate reasons for their non-applicability in Russian conditions. The paper describes a multi-factor model of dependence of cash inflows to commercial banks on three groups of factors. Based on the retrospective information, it estimates the lower limit of money laundering in Russia and provides a short-term forecast. Conclusions. The use of anti-laundering tools should be focused on the prevention of threats to national security. Therefore, it is advisable to anticipate the dynamics of money-laundering in the country, restraining and preventing its growth. The findings may serve as a basis for further research in the field of testing the hypotheses on measuring money laundering.