GHL
#Thank you.
Hello, <UNK>.
I mean, there's a limit, obviously, to how precise I can be or want to be.
All I can say is that we certainly are ending this year in a more robust way than probably a lot of people thought we would when they thought we were maybe too tied to a couple of key transactions.
It's pretty clear to us that a fair amount of that momentum will carry over into next year.
It's obviously difficult to say what's going to close in Q1 versus Q2.
But we feel reasonably good entering next year that we're going to continue similar momentum to what we've had.
Certainly compare favorably to what was a relatively weak start to 2016 and, but we'll see exactly how it develops as the quarters go on.
Well, if it's the best revenue quarter and non-comp costs are relatively flat, I think that's probably a reasonable assumption, because our non-comp costs are, as I've said, they are best looked at in absolute terms.
We certainly don't expect a huge move in tax rate, or we would be adjusting our tax rate differently for the year to date.
As I've said, you tend to fix that on an estimated basis for the annual.
So, yes.
I think that's a fair assumption you're making there with your math.
I don't have that handy.
I would say this, though, that I think that the kinds of revenue levels we're at now, that's kind of not that much of a relevant question.
I mean, it became a relevant question when we had grown some and, for example, last year had a relatively soft revenue year in part because a lot of things rolled over into this year.
Then, questions like okay, how much comp is really fixed becomes quite important because it can impact your comp ratio.
We're now at the level of revenue run rate and profitability where comp is all about upside and discretionary comp to people as opposed to how much do you contractually need to pay them.
We have about low-70s right now.
I wouldn't want to put a specific number on it for end of next year.
I mean, as I've said, we're quite hopeful of a significant recruiting year next year, including with a maybe even another one or two before this year is out.
So we'll have a few promotes.
I'm sure we'll have a few people either retire or move to senior advisor, whatever the status may be.
So there'll be pluses and minuses, but I certainly expect we'll see significant net growth net year just based on the recruiting pipeline that we're looking at.
All right.
Thank you.
I wouldn't want to try to draw a conclusion so quickly.
I mean, anybody who joined this year, I mean, some of them literally joined in the last several weeks, having committed to join us four or five months ago and then working through their so-called gardening leave or their notice period before they could join.
So we certainly hire people on a long-term basis, not on the expectation that they could agree to join us in April, actually come in July, and produce revenue before the year's over.
I wish it was that easy, but it's not.
And I think last year's recruits are making good progress.
You first measure that will the quality of client dialogs they have.
Then you measure it with the ability to get engagement letters signed with assignments whether or not it leads to a transaction.
Then of course, over time, you want to see those actually turn into assignments and that ultimately to transactions, and that ultimately to completion revenue.
But you have to go through all those steps before revenue actually appears on the income statement.
And so we can say that we're happy with our recent recruits and we think they're doing all the right things and hopefully going to have great success here, but it's not in a way you can measure in revenues real quickly.
Well, I don't want to make a forecast as to what next year's going to be.
We obviously don't do that and we're still working through this year.
We're trying to push this year, obviously, as far as we can and have all of our efforts focused on that.
It's starting to feel like we have a nice pipeline going into next year.
How exactly the year plays out, there are many variables there, but at least as of right now, again, in the US in particular, it feels like the M&A market is reasonable active and we think we're going to get our share of the opportunity.
All right.
Thank you.
And I think that's our last question.
Thanks, everybody, for calling in and we'll speak to you again in three months.
Bye, now.
