UFS
#Right.
Let me answer that question.
We had a busy maintenance quarter, but when we do that maintenance, sometimes you find things you're not expecting.
We didn't find things we weren't expecting.
Our startups were good.
Sometimes a startup can take longer than you're expecting it to take.
That meant our maintenance spending was very tight, versus our expectations, which is obviously a very strong thing.
We talk a little bit and I talked in my published remarks about continuous improvement and reliability.
We.
ve changed the structure a while back in our pulp and paper business.
Actually, we took two of our very best middle managers and really have them now focused on continuous improvement and engineering improvement, really looking to get pulp output, so slush pulp output up.
Because obviously, that's a free run, if you like, in terms of productivity.
That's really starting to pay off.
So that systemic improvement, we're looking to really move through the network over the years to come.
Of course, on the cost side, we got a nice tailwind from our wood costs, which had been very high due to weather.
And as that weather reversed, we were able to rebuild wood inventory, which obviously puts us in a better position when negotiating prices with local wood suppliers, if you have some inventory in place.
Those things were really the major items that allowed us to have that strong cost position.
Does that help.
Okay.
That's right.
I don't think anything too substantial.
We might have to build a little more fluff pulp, I think, just so that we can seed the marketplace around that conversion.
Just make sure that we're in pretty good shape.
But I wouldn't look to see it build substantially from where we are.
Certainly.
That's a great question.
It's an expected development.
After 120 days those temporary countervailing duties come off.
It's a routine occurrence, because the timing doesn't exactly fit between the two pieces of legislation.
What that means is, one Indonesian producer may be able to ship without duty, because they had no countervailing duties found against them, nor did they have any anti-dumping duties.
But of course the anti-dumping duties stay in place.
Now if you take a look at what that really means, the anti-dumping duties for some of the major Chinese produces are about 200%.
For the rest of the Indonesian producers, they're around 51%, 52%.
Obviously, there's only a window here.
If you assume that the court finds eventually in February, there's about a three-month window.
To get it from the mill all the way here is about a six-week supply chain.
Our view is this really doesn't change the dynamics, particularly.
Does that help.
You're welcome.
Thank you, <UNK>.
You mean in terms of some of the transactional pricing at the lower end, <UNK>.
Is that what you mean.
Yes.
So the answer to that question is we are beginning to.
I think you.
ll have to look at this.
It's very hard at the minute.
I'm not trying to not answer a question.
It's hard at the minute to say where this will fall.
I think we are going to see clearer in 3 to 6 months, in terms of where the volume shakes out.
There's very little visibility of the inventory that's actually sitting in the merchant community and in some of the customers on some of these grades.
My view is we see a little bit of the impact probably right now, but hard to tell when that's really going to show through.
Absolutely, let's talk about that.
What you're seeing right now is the impact of us bringing in manufacturing where perhaps we've used third parties, and beginning to use and get the full ramp up on the machine part that we've built.
We've probably got a couple of machines left to go.
That ramp up will have less impact than the old ramp ups, because more of the business, if you like, is now in steady-state.
In addition to that, our expectation, really, for next year on the top line is that we would grow slightly faster than the market, because we are having success both in our core customers of growing business and in actually winning some new business.
<UNK>, good morning.
I don't have the detail, but I'll give you what we are planning.
At this moment in time because, of course, we own a personal care business.
Our thinking here is that the test customer for Ashdown fluff is ourselves.
That would mean on an annualized basis may be 80,000 tons to 90,000 tons from that machine.
And then obviously, currently some of that is supplied by Plymouth.
What we would be doing there, quite obviously, is then selling that into sort of the markets where Plymouth is already strong.
And then we are already seeding new customers.
I think it's going to take some years, certainly a couple of years, before that machine is running full tilt on fluff.
The detail of how that's going to fall in, to be honest, <UNK>; I don't really have at this point in time.
And of course we do have the baler there, specifically, to be able to make that balance.
But I guess you are aware of that.
You're really saying how are you going to move that through over time.
Certainly, as quickly as possible.
We.
d be making fluff pulp for ourselves at full tilt on that machine.
Does that help.
The project is [160].
I think there is [140] left for next year.
My answer is more as of year-end than as of Q3.
I think in next year budget or next year numbers you will see around 140 that will be linked to the Ashdown conversions.
Thank you.
Yes.
They are ---+ (multiple speakers)
They are fairly meaningful.
If you don't mind, <UNK>, because it's wins on private label, we don't really want to give the detail on who it is and what it is and the amount it is.
Because obviously that's proprietary between us and the customer.
But they have been substantial.
If you're assuming the market is going to grow at a certain level next year, we'd certainly be looking to grow faster than the marketplace.
Just on timing as to when they appear, some of them are, obviously, happening now.
But obviously, in Europe currency is masking that.
But really it's from the end of quarter one to March onwards.
That impact will come into the numbers.
I'm sorry, say again.
It's pretty much 50-50.
It has been ---+ we have been very successful in the baby business, positioning ourselves with some major accounts.
If you recall, that was the business where we struggled a little bit as we bought it.
Of course, baby is a much bigger marketplace then AI.
We have had some nice wins in the adult incontinence business, but some strong wins in baby that is ---+ will start to come through second quarter 2016.
I think, <UNK>, there's normally a little bit of seasonality in Q4 because of weather.
Yes, we have ---+ excluding that weather question.
I think wood, our forecast is for flat, maybe a little of benefit in Q4.
Energy is moving up and down.
Difficult, this one, to predict and weather is really impacting that one.
Normally, in Q4 it's a small negative, as is Q3.
But we will see what El Nino will do to the weather this fall.
Thanks, <UNK>.
