MRO
#Thank you, <UNK>, and good morning to everyone.
I'll make a few brief comments and open the call for questions.
Our second-quarter headlines: strong well results, continued cost reductions, successful portfolio management.
Our Oklahoma asset team delivered two outstanding STACK Meramec wells with oil cuts above 70%, while continuing to balance leasehold demands with acreage delineation.
This same team also closed our PayRock acquisition on Monday, just six weeks after announcing the deal, and are rapidly integrating that asset into our Oklahoma business.
The team actually had a countdown calendar in the office as they marched toward the accelerated close date.
Needless to say, they are excited and their focused efforts will ensure no loss of momentum.
We had an exceptional quarter in the Bakken, delivering a record well on our West Myrmidon acreage through a combination of great reservoir quality and enhanced completion designs.
The Bakken asset team has truly embraced this time of lower activity to prepare for what is next.
They dropped their production costs materially and upped their game on well returns to place West Myrmidon in the mix for 2017 capital allocation.
The Eagle Ford continued seeing uplift from tighter stage spacing, while feeling the effects of a planned step down in activity and challenging base production declines.
And despite their move to higher intensity completions, their completed well costs are down significantly year over year.
Winning the production cost battle is hard work, and typically measured in numerous but smaller victories.
Rest assured that cost management remains front and center with all of our asset teams.
North America E&P production costs are down almost 30% from a year ago.
And we have dropped their full-year guidance by $1 per oil equivalent barrel.
We've also reduced 2016 unit production expense guidance for international by $0.50 per oil equivalent barrel.
Through a combination of capital discipline and efficiency gains across all of our businesses, we will deliver a 2016 capital program that's $100 million below our original budget, all while funding the incremental 2016 activity associated with our STACK acquisition, including the additional rig we will add there this quarter.
Oklahoma is getting busy; with the acquisition we will be doubling our activity in the STACK to four rigs in total.
Not to be outdone by North America's success, in our international business we achieved first gas from the B3 compression project in EG in July, on schedule and within budget.
The project is fulfilling its mission to extend the Alba Field's production plateau by two years and the asset's life out beyond 2030.
As our capital investment in the compression project falls away, EG will contribute significant free cash flow that we can reinvest in our deep inventory of high return opportunities here in the US resource plays.
On the portfolio management side, our non-core asset sales program has now achieved over $1 billion year to date.
Though we exceeded our initial target, we aren't done.
Expect non-core asset sales to be ongoing as we continue optimizing our capital allocation to the lowest cost highest margin opportunities.
On the other side of portfolio management, the 61,000 net acres we acquired in the STACK Meramec oil window ticks all the boxes.
Quality, scale, value, and with further upside not assumed in the purchase price.
Through this volatile and uncertain commodity price environment, we have been resolute in executing against our playbook, strengthening our balance sheet, resetting our cost structure, simplifying our portfolio.
All with the goal of profitable growth within cash flows when sustainably higher prices give us the confidence to ramp activity.
With that, I will hand it back to <UNK> to begin the Q&A.
Good morning, <UNK>.
We are still committed to that, <UNK>.
As we look out at the macro today, though we are sitting at $40 today, but as we look out to 2017 and see that more constructive pricing, we feel very confident in our ability to begin that growth sequentially again, and do it within cash flows in that low to mid-$50s kind of price range.
A lot of that will also hinge on our ability to ensure that we have operational momentum coming out of 2016 as well.
Absolutely, <UNK>.
We've talked about nominally a $1.4 billion program in 2017 that would get us back on that sequential growth track within the resource plays.
And within that is, the way I would ask you to think about it, <UNK>, is embedded basically almost doubling of the rig count from where we are today to when we would exit in 2017.
And that would support both that capital program as well as that volumes profile.
<UNK>, this is J.
R.
As we've talked I think on previous calls even though we are focused here on ultimately being able to get that capital program up to a level to where we can resume the growth path, the balance sheet is still going to be important.
I think we've got some maturities coming up here in October of 2017 and again in March of 2018.
Sitting here today would appear to be the right allocation to capital might be just a wait to be able to pay off those maturities when they are due.
That's one reason why I think we are maintaining the cash balance that we are today, to give us that option.
But we will continue to look at other opportunities to be able to reduce overall gross debt, but right now I think we're leaning toward repaying those maturities when they are due.
<UNK>, good morning.
Oklahoma STACK is going to be our absolute first priority, <UNK>.
Once we have met our leasehold requirements and our strategic objectives in the STACK, then we're going to look at optimizing across the remaining basins to maximize economic return.
I think the good news there for us is that when we look at that multi-basin optimization we've got a very competitive and diverse Tier 1 inventory that really now features everything from Eagle Ford oil and condensate to Bakken West Myrmidon to SCOOP.
It's a great portfolio, but that first incremental capital is absolutely going to Oklahoma STACK.
In fact, as we state in our release material last evening, we'll be looking to add that second rig into the STACK acquisition acreage later in the third quarter, bringing us to a total of four rigs in Oklahoma.
I'm very happy with our footprint in the STACK as well as the SCOOP, certainly with the bolt on of the STACK acquisition, the PayRock acquisition, it enhanced our position materially in the STACK.
But as I look across it from an overall resource standpoint, and you think about the fact that we now have in excess of about $1 billion 2P resource in the STACK as well as another $1 billion or so in the SCOOP, that is a very, very material position going forward in Oklahoma.
Just over a couple hundred thousand net surface acres in the STACK, we feel very good about our position.
We would never forego accretive small bolt on positions or greenfield leasing, but we're quite pleased with where we stand right now in Oklahoma.
Let me maybe kick that one off and then I'll turn it over to <UNK> to maybe provide a bit more color.
We just closed on the STACK acquisition on Monday and took over operations after lunch on Monday, so integration is still a work in progress though the team is well advanced.
As you mentioned, we're going to be putting a second rig to work there.
The two rigs are going to be initially focused on protecting that valuable leasehold, but also looking toward continuing strategic I will say delineation around the play as well.
But in terms of economics and where those wells fall in our set of opportunities, there is no doubt that the STACK oil opportunities compete at the very top of our Tier 1 inventory.
And that's even been confirmed yet again with the three additional wells that have been brought to sales within the acquisition between ---+ up to close.
Maybe I will let <UNK> fill in a few more details on how the integration is going.
Sure, thanks, <UNK>.
We took over the operations Monday.
It's been very seamless to date.
Obviously we look at the acquired acres.
They are on the oil buy side; we think it balances the portfolio across the breadth of the STACK basin very nicely for us.
We're going to have the ongoing obligations there to defend the lease position in our heritage Marathon acreage and STACK as well as ongoing in the acquired acres.
We do have a bit of excess capacity there.
I think one of the things that you would recognize in our activities to date, so for example in the results we reported this quarter we have been transitioning to XL wells in our over-pressured area to look at the value there.
Those well results have been very compelling, and we're very excited about those.
We also purchased this acquisition on the oil buy side based on the fact that they had among the very best productivity on a lateral adjusted foot basis with very low capital costs, which together create a great value opportunity for us.
And so we're going to continue on that basis.
I think we also recognize the opportunity with about half of the acres in the acquired package suitable for XL that we're going to move to also test the XL in that area to see what the best long-term result for Marathon is.
I think in general about half of that is conducive to long laterals, perhaps a bit more as we continue to consolidate and unitize in there.
But that's where we stand today.
<UNK>, thanks for the follow-up question.
First of all I want to be very clear, the $1.4 billion I am talking about, <UNK>, is for the resource play element only.
That would not include other capital requirements and the conventional elements of our business, although we would expect similar to what we did this year that the bulk of our capital investment in 2017 will in fact be allocated to the resource plays.
In that low $50 to mid-$50 window, we would absolutely expect to cover that capital demand within operating cash flows.
Does not mean that we're not still pursuing non-core asset divestitures, but we are certainly not saying we're going to be reliant upon those.
They give us optionality, but we don't feel that we need to rely on those if we are in that price band.
Absolutely.
I think first and foremost you said it well, we've got this great opportunity set that very much competes for capital and the price band.
A lot of that I would say growth aspiration though will be highly dependent upon the pricing that we see.
Being a very oil levered company, we have a very strong response in operating cash flows as we see improvement to the oil price.
So to the extent that we need to modulate between growth as well as generating free cash flows, we are prepared to do that.
The potential that we've got in the three resource plays definitely provides us an avenue for moving to a very competitive growth metric in the future.
Without getting into specifics there, we have that potential.
Sure, <UNK>, this is <UNK>.
I will start in the order you asked them perhaps, but overall it's clearly early in the STACK still.
We are delineating the whole acreage, us and peers, those well results we reported this quarter, the Irven John and the Olive June, are excellent well results.
Their XL wells are performing above that type curve, they are also only about 40 or 50 days into their total production.
So I think we're going to need to let those run a while.
I think we are excited that they are above that curve, and so those certainly an opportunity for resource upgrade.
We will also have, as you might recall, a number of other XL wells in the third quarter and fourth quarter in that same Blaine County area from our heritage acreage we'll get to talk about.
So when we get the breadth of those and they have matured a bit would be a more appropriate time for that.
Turning to the Bakken, I think the well results we reported there are really remarkable this quarter, all off of the same pad.
The three best ---+ among the three best wells put in the basin in the last three years that really demonstrates what technology application, the right landings on the right combination, is and we have the inventory like that.
Similarly we would like to see those mature, but there are other wells in that area that also perform well, which is why we were aggressive in that area.
I think we need to let those mature, but I just echo your point there is clearly opportunity for resource upgrade there driven by that.
Lastly Eagle Ford, we continue to be really pleased with the results of tighter stage spacing, particularly in the oil areas in the Upper and Lower Eagle Ford.
It's responding very well.
We've got a breadth of wells there now, almost 75 wells in that group, so it's maturing which gives us more confidence.
And I think we recognize there will be a need to do a resource update in the not too distant future.
Yes, <UNK>.
I think we went last year from unconstrained Austin Chalk very quickly to 40 acre spacing in the Austin Chalk to try to find the bounds of productivity in that reservoir.
What we've discovered over the last few quarters is that the 40-acre spacing when we've had groups, really our first groups of Austin Chalk well together that are constrained, that the reservoir quality is very high.
It's got a lot of natural fracturing, which we suspected but we're not certain of.
Those wells are communicating laterally a bit, and then overall we're going to get the best capital efficiency in the Austin Chalk at wider spacing.
In that same timeframe, we have also been testing the Upper Eagle Ford, really doubled the amount of our delineated acreage over that time in the Upper Eagle Ford and recognize we can backfill some of those Austin Chalk locations with Upper Eagle Ford, but both at wider spacing.
They just interact better.
Ultimately we're looking for the highest recovery of hydrocarbon out of that unit as the lowest capital input.
So we're trying to optimize the returns at the drilling unit level.
Sure.
I think you have to take a view on price in any of this, and I would reflect that we started this density testing at north of $90 a barrel.
It probably looks different at $40, so the higher commodity price I think the more you'd want to look at that ultimate density, because that just drives the returns from that unit.
We think where we are today evolving, making these adjustments, is appropriate for today's commodity market.
Certainly in the first half of the year, <UNK>, there was a bit of a bias because we had a couple of long cycle projects that were running their course that are now of course both started up, which are the EG compression project as well as the non-operated Gunflint project.
So there was probably a bit more mod bias to the conventional portfolio in the first half of the year.
As we look forward to the second half of the year, that's going to largely be paced by the resource plays themselves.
That will really set that exit velocity that we achieved from a capital program standpoint as we move out of the year.
We do anticipate, based on the activity we've described including the additional rig in Oklahoma as well as some additional completion work in the Eagle Ford, that we will exit the fourth quarter with some pretty strong momentum going into 2017.
To your point on the rest of the portfolio looking forward to 2017, you should expect us to continue to minimize the capital allocation to the conventional program, very similar to what we endeavor to do this cycle in 2016.
<UNK>, our conventional business is absolutely geared toward generating free cash flow that can then be redeployed.
That is the model, that is what Mitch drives the team toward.
We will look at some selective investments there; a great example is the EG compression project, albeit a long cycle project it's very accretive.
It's delivering very strong economics and performance in the portfolio, and it simply going to add to the ability of Equatorial Guinea to add to our cash flows.
I think a separate question though is more of the non-core asset question.
We continue to scrutinize our portfolio and ensure that it's fully optimized.
As I said in my opening remarks, we have achieved $1 billion year to date of non-core asset divestitures, but we believe there is more work to be done there.
We don't think they will be to the scale of say a Wyoming, but we still believe there is some good solid portfolio work, particularly here in North America, that we continue to drive.
And again, it's all focused on that simplification and concentration of the portfolio toward the highest risk-adjusted returns.
<UNK>, I appreciate your transparency.
I will maybe take those two bookends that you just talked about, the $40 and the $60.
Obviously I think at $40, similar to what we've experienced this year, we'd be looking to protect our balance sheet, to ensure that though we continue to drive those leasehold and strategic objectives in the portfolio, and then look with great discipline at some of those discretionary economic opportunities within the portfolio.
We would still be bearing down on cost, we would still be bearing down on non-core asset sales, so those would be the behaviors and the objectives as we ---+ if we saw an environment moving into 2017 that is more in the four-handle range.
I think conversely if we see more constructive pricing moving in to 2017, that $60 as we have talked about, a $10 move in pricing for us is a big impact on our operating cash flows.
And we would be looking to redeploy those pretty strongly back here into the US resource play to not only get back on sequential growth, but get back on that growth quite strongly if we saw that level of price support.
We've protected the organization in such a way that we have the capacity to move to much higher activity levels, and if we saw that $60 we'd move toward that as quickly as we could.
I think as you look at our portfolio, <UNK>, you look at our business model, we have made the shift.
We made the shift in the dividend last year.
Of course it was helpful from an operating cash flow standpoint, but it was also much more consistent with where we were headed in this very short cycle investment resource play intensive business that we are in, and we think from a competitive standpoint given our opportunity outlook for growth and reinvestment, that's the right place for us to place our shareholder money.
<UNK>, I think that's an insightful question.
I think what we would focus on at today's activities, which we are, or at higher activity in the future, would be in our Tier 1 inventory.
As we have taken those technical advances and we have lifted up the returns of some of our portfolio, we have such a breadth of it now that we are going to focus within that Tier 1 first and we will take a portion of our activity to try to test some Tier 2 and lift it up to meet that thing.
We need to stay disciplined in any price environment to make sure we're bringing our best opportunities forward, but also taking the view that we're going to bet on technology, we're going to bet on the innovation and the creativity of our people to keep bringing our portfolio up accretively over that time.
Sure.
As we spun down our activity, we recognized that we have a cadre of early career talented people and we don't necessarily have the direct activity to put them into, so we have taken them out to special projects across the Company.
They are out doing site supervision, work on rigs and frac crews, production supervisors.
So we are retaining them in very valuable functions, maturing their leadership and technical skills and their business acumen, and then as we grow activity we can recall them into other petro-technical focused roles, and they're going to be even better prepared to take those on.
Early activity ramp, those people are here for us.
This is <UNK>.
Just for clarity, at the top of our batting order is going to be STACK oil.
That clearly has the superior returns, whether we look at a $40 environment or even a $50 environment.
I think then the lead table gets pretty interesting because of all the good work the asset teams have been doing.
We actually have more diversity within our Tier 1 kind of inventory that will compete for capital.
The ones that we would see really rising to the top, we're going to continue to see Eagle Ford, High GOR oil, we're going to continue to see Bakken, West Myrmidon specifically come into the mix, and also then also the SCOOP condensate area is going to be a strong performer which will also maybe amplified in the event we see stronger gas support as well.
That is really the lead table as we see it today.
That is an element of it, but there is also an element of course of just base decline in other elements of our business, specifically Eagle Ford which we have already talked about.
I will take maybe the question around the back half of the year on resource plays, and then maybe pitch it over to <UNK> to take on if there is any knock on effect of the completion discussion.
You have seen the releases that have come out over the last few days.
There is clearly more optimism in the market, particularly I think as you stretch into 2017.
I think the sector in general is struggling with striking the correct balance between wanting to be prepared if they get a strong and sustainable price signal versus getting too far ahead of their headlights and losing the discipline that has been required during this downturn.
Speaking from a Marathon Oil perspective, we do expect to build some momentum going into the fourth quarter, which we think would position us quite favorably in the event we do see more constructive pricing.
And I would say that there is probably many others within our space that are looking to do the same.
There of course will always be an element that may have to be more in a balance sheet repair mode as opposed to being on their front foot and looking to drive toward incremental activity, but I don't see a dramatic adjustment just because the declines have been pretty challenging this year, and it's going to be hard of course to offset that completely with late-year activity.
And maybe, <UNK>, if you want to chime in on the question around the knock on and the completion effect.
Sure.
So specifically focused on the Eagle Ford, I think as <UNK> referenced, our guidance takes into our account our view on all that.
So it's there in it.
We have made some adjustments to the development plan, you'll see those reflected in the Eagle Ford second half of the year shift to focus on more ---+ two-thirds of that activity is in the high GOR oil area, which are our highest value type curves at current pricing.
And we have widened out that Austin Chalk from 40 acre to 80 acre spacing to mitigate those influences and three and four zone high density pads are really ---+ we're foregoing those for the rest of this year, and so that will help mitigate those concerns.
Otherwise we've put into our guidance what we think the base decline from 2015 is going to look like.
There will certainly be a ramp associated with that.
That would not be a step-change if you will.
There would be a ramp across the year.
I was trying to just project out where we thought we might exit out of 2017 based on that kind of nominal $1.4 billion type investment, but there will absolutely be a ramp.
And I think too you have to bear in mind that the rigs today are doing a lot more than the rigs did a year ago.
We absolutely are taking advantage of that efficiency.
In fact, in the Eagle Ford we have actually gone down a rig since second quarter, from five to four rigs, recognizing just the sheer efficiency of our drilling operations and the ability of our teams to continue to set very strong pace on the drilling side of the business.
Thank you.
I would just like to thank everyone on the call for their questions and certainly their interest in Marathon Oil.
It's been a busy and productive quarter for the Company.
I think the headlines speak for themselves.
I won't go back through those, but we are preparing for that sustainable price environment where we can profitably grow our business within cash flows.
In 2017, we can get our business back to sequential growth and live within our means, with WTI in the low to mid-$50s.
And as I've stated during the call, we have the potential for even higher growth at higher pricing with an industry-leading leverage to oil.
So thank you again for the time on the call.
I appreciate it and have a great day.
