UFS
#I think it really depends.
If you take the personal care business, you would say $30 million to $40 million is if you're growing at market, it's relatively steady.
You haven't got much product innovation, and steady state.
Now if we felt there was some other opportunities, either in geography or in product, or there was a large win or a large launch, you might see a little bit higher than that.
But that's the steady state number for the business.
That help.
To give you an idea of how it would work, a machine with everything that goes around it might be $25 million to $30 million, depending on whether it's baby or whether it's adult incontinence and depending on the geography actually that it's placed in.
So if you think about that and you have to order a machine or two a year, you're a little bit over that steady state number.
But the asset base we will have by the end of 2017 gives us runway to $200 million.
So if we start to buy more, our expectation will be that it will get us past $200 million in EBITDA.
Well we're a little bit pulp constrained because we're obviously still supporting two paper machines.
So essentially, while we're running those two paper machines and that pulp line, that's what the pulp line would be producing.
Well I can only talk about us really.
I think you know us well enough that we're always looking for that opportunity.
If we think the dynamic is shifting a little bit towards the seller, we'll look for a price increase.
And I mean that's certainly what we felt in North America and why we announced what we announced.
Good morning, <UNK>.
Well, I think it's really a discussion around the pulp and paper business more than it's a discussion around the personal care business.
So we think there's a few issues potentially around wood.
It's a very localized business; local dynamics make a big difference.
If you think about what we're doing in Ashdown, so really we've been buying a lot of hardwood and very little softwood.
Now we have to go out and find all that softwood.
So if you think about that impact in our raw materials, that makes an impact.
It doesn't necessarily mean we're buying more expensively, but we're buying a more expensive wood, if you take my point.
So we buy roughly $1 billion of wood every year, so we think there's a little bit of inflation in there.
I think that's the major item.
No, not really.
Not at this point in time.
You would imagine ---+ you look at oil as a feedstock and you say to yourself but of course it's really about mostly the converting ability around some of the chemicals we buy.
So we're not looking for anything dramatic there.
We got some major benefit about a year ago when we actually really rejigged our specialty chemicals supply within our pulp and paper business.
That's going to run through, but there will probably be a little bit of inflation in that.
But still off a lower base than we've had historically.
It was mostly volume.
I'm not trying to avoid the question.
It's just it really depends on where we're selling the product.
So there's been some price pressure in the long term care, acute care area.
It's actually been very solid in the retail area, and we've had price pressure in some of our Nordic businesses, but we've been very strong actually in southern Europe.
So it's a bit of a ---+ mishmash is the wrong word, but it varies.
In addition, currency throws it all around, because we've also got the kroner to the pound and the kroner to the euro.
But overall, little bit of price pressure in what I would call the healthcare sector, but not so much in the retail sector.
Thank you.
<UNK>, hi.
No.
That's a great question.
So undoubtedly a little bit of noise about are the Europeans going to appear.
Nothing substantial, as you say, and numbers don't show it at this point.
If you think about the Europeans, they've had ---+ that market has actually got much better this year.
I think they've had three price increases, so probably economics say they are happier in their home market than exporting because by the time they've paid the freight and they've stored, et cetera it might not be wildly attractive.
But I'm sure they will knock on a door for some of the bid business, I would imagine, <UNK>.
So far nothing wildly dramatic.
Good question.
So I think the way you have to look at this is you have to look at the end use market.
So obviously this is a product in baby diapers, it's a product in adult diapers, it's a product in feminine care.
You look at the growth on all those areas, they are pretty dramatic.
We think fluff pulp is a 3% a year growth market.
So assume it's around a 6 million-ton market a year, that gives you some sense of what that might be.
We've got I think a very strong sales plan in place.
It does help us to be forward integrated, actually, with our own personal care business.
And of course we have that opportunity to be careful as we move into that market in terms of baling southern softwood.
So I think with all that in place, we will have roughly one million tons to sell into that market, maybe a little bit less maybe, 850,000.
My view is we're in a strong place from a cost standpoint and we're in a very good place I think in terms of the quality of the product we manufacture.
So overall, I think we've got a good market position which I think over time will prove its worth.
Thank you so much.
Have you got the sun capacity in there.
Okay, so we all know that's very early days.
So I'm not sure ---+ I'm not wishing to argue with your calculation, I'm not sure I'd include that at this point.
But I think if you look at where we are, again only to repeat myself, I think we've got a great product.
Is it going to get a little bit difficult maybe for awhile, who knows.
But my view is if I look at our product mix, probably 2016 we're really going to focus on getting ourselves qualified in our own personal care business with our Ashdown volume and also in a few key accounts, all of whom know our agenda that we want to be with them and are prepared to help us qualify.
And then I think the product mix shifts probably by ---+ in 2017, full 2018 we're probably at full volume on fluff pulp.
But I think there's a pretty steady ramp up as we balance between bales and fluff.
Obviously, I'd be happy to.
It depends on the customer, it depends how they buy, depends on their technical resources.
But it can take you three to nine months to qualify with a major account in fluff pulp.
And why.
Because of course this is a key ingredient of a consumer product and they're highly sensitive to how their consumer, where that be the baby, whether that be the elderly person, whether that be the woman in fem-hy, responds to these products in the final product.
So it's actually a technical sell and an R&D base sell to these major accounts.
So it's not I have fluff pulp beat a path to my door, it's actually a pretty technical qualification.
And in terms of how your grade interacts with their machines, the kind of yield they are going to get, does it actually depulp effectively and quickly, is it soft, is it harsh, all those issues really count to that customer base.
Thank you very much.
