NKTR
#Yes, <UNK> that is a great question.
I think there are a lot of unknowns here clearly.
It is all blinded, so we are speculating.
We don't know variability, we don't know the effect sizes, et cetera, et cetera.
However, as a sort of gestalt, if you will allow me that, I think what it takes, our back of the envelope calculations take it from somewhere, the range of 50% to 85%, I think we now look at something in the range of 65% to 95%, that is a sort of slide if you like on the power.
No.
So if I start at the bottom at 50%.
The extremes are obviously 50% power, with the incremental number of patients, the 50% moves to a 65% number.
And if we were at the 85% point at this point, because we clearly don't know where we are, that 85% would move to a 95%.
So we are somewhere between 65% and 95%, so the midpoint of that would be, I am doing math in my head here, about 80% power.
What it is assuming I think are the assumptions are things stay relatively stable from the point of the midpoint conditional power analysis.
But once again, a huge caveat here.
We are dealing with a massive range of uncertainties.
We don't know, all we have is an outcome from an independent group, who said, up the sample size by 200 based on a preset criteria, if that helps.
It is very interesting.
I can't sort of aggregate that information.
I think a couple of public caveats at this point.
We know that there is huge variability across these types of pain studies.
One that I was certainly involved in several years back where we did an interim on one of the studies and not on the other one.
At the end of the study we had very strong results, but the stronger result came in the study which had the interim analysis.
They both had interim analysis.
One of them increased sample size, that was the one with the stronger results at the end of the study.
That obviously doesn't mean that will necessarily be the case here.
I think what we have done here is slightly different, because we didn't want to take, we wanted to avoid taking an alpha hit.
And we wanted to avoid unblinding in any way, shape, or form.
So we had to preset numbers that made a lot of sense to us, which was that 50% to 85% range, if you like.
They both had interims.
The one that was increased was actually the opioid experienced.
Thank you.
Thank you all for joining us this afternoon.
Again, I would like to thank our employees for their hard work and dedication to the Company.
I think we made some excellent progress, and we have an awful lot to look forward to this year.
So I am very enthusiastic about it, and we look to seeing all of you at the upcoming conferences throughout the spring.
Thank you, have a great evening.
