LAMR
#Thanks, Katie, and welcome all to Lamar's Q1 earnings call.
As I mentioned in the release, the tone of business is improving.
Pacings for Q2 are stronger than Q1 results.
I would describe our expectations for Q2 acquisition-adjusted growth as up 2-ish.
In addition, we expect expense growth to moderate to more customary levels as the year progresses.
We also expect maintenance CapEx to come in at plus or minus $40 million.
We are consequently maintaining our previous guidance for 2017 AFFO per share.
<UNK> will give you more detail on the unusual Q1 expense items and the timing of maintenance CapEx that affected Q1 AFFO, after which I will touch on the usual operating metrics followed by Q&<UNK>
<UNK>.
Thanks, <UNK>.
Good morning, everybody.
There were a couple of expenses in the first quarter of '17 that were not in Q1 that contributed to our expense growth in the quarter.
I'll just walk through briefly.
First of all, legal fees at corporate were up $600,000 over last year's first quarter.
On airport division, the revenue sharing increased $800,000 in Q1 over Q1 of last year.
And we had an increase in Workmen's Comp claims of $1.1 million that we did not have last year.
Workmen's Comp, of course, is, at times, the luck of the draw.
Accidents happen, and as much as we try to control that through our safety program, sometimes bad things happen.
Anyway, that's kind of a recap on the expenses.
Maintenance CapEx, you saw, we came in at about $9.5 million versus $6.5 million last year.
Maintenance CapEx, as is growth CapEx, is a timing thing.
It doesn't mean that we're on track to spend more this year than last year, because we were up approximately $3 million in the first quarter.
$1 million of that was IT hardware that we had planned for.
That was spent in the first quarter.
It was equipment that we needed to replace old equipment in our IT shop.
So that was a onetime expense that won't be reoccurring.
<UNK>ut as <UNK> said, we're looking at a run rate of $40 million for the year.
<UNK>.
Great.
Thanks, <UNK>.
Hitting a couple of the operating metrics, digital same-board revenue increased 1% in Q1 of '17 over Q1 of '16.
Our national, local sales mix in Q1 of '17 was, we were 79% local, 21% national.
And as we mentioned on our call 3 months ago, our national was actually a little stronger in Q1.
Q1 national was up approximately 5%.
Local was down approximately 1%.
And again, as we said 3 months ago, we don't expect the year to play out that way.
Looking forward through the end of the year, it looks like local and national should make roughly equal contributions to our pro forma growth by the time we close out the year.
I'm going to spend a little more time on the verticals just because that kind of color seems to be of interest, given the way ad spend is playing out so far in 2017.
Our largest category of business is service.
That was up 10% in Q1 this year over last year.
Health care was down 5% Q1 this year under Q1 of last year.
A little color on that: we continue to believe that political uncertainty around the ACA is causing our health care customers to be a little bit cautious in their ad spend.
Retail was up 3% in Q1.
Amusement, entertainment and sports was up 11% in Q1.
Automotive was down 1% in Q1.
Education, another vertical that has struggled of late, was down 9% in Q1.
And Telecom, which represents 3% of our business, it's our ---+ last of our top 10 verticals, was up 23% in Q1.
That, again, was a little bit of an anomaly in timing and probably resulted in that outperformance for us in national.
So with that color on the verticals, Katie, let's open it up for questions.
Sure.
So, yes, we look a little bit different than our counterparts, Clear and Outfront.
In visiting with John <UNK>, our Head of National Sales, about where ours came from, it pretty much confirms what they are seeing in the top 5 DMAs.
We're down, for example, in Chicago and New York.
<UNK>ut we're up in national and middle markets.
So it's just ---+ I think it's an anomaly driven by where national clients are putting their business.
They're buying a little deeper, and they're bypassing some of the major metros.
In terms of verticals, it was pretty clear, telecom was a major part of that.
So Verizon and AT&T were spending pretty big in, again, in those DMAs 10 through 75, let's call it.
I think we also got a lift in those same DMAs from beverage.
Coca-Cola came in pretty good for us.
On the downside, we took a little hit in the beer category, but when you added it all up, I think it was a function of where they were buying, where they were putting their ad spend, not so much a function of how much they were spending.
As we look in ---+ at the end ---+ at the back half of the year and what remains to be sold through 2017, let me sort of relate it to our AFFO guidance, because what we're assuming are not really heroic things.
For us to hit the bottom of our AFFO range, we need to have pro forma revenue growth of 2-and-some-change by the time we close out 2017.
We need to make sure expenses don't get away from us.
We need expense growth in that same range of 2-and-some-change.
And then we need maintenance CapEx to come in at plus or minus $40 million, and that's sort of the simple recipe to get us to our guidance.
And those things appear to us, all the data points we're looking at, to be doable.
So we're cautiously maintaining our guidance, and we think that 2017 is still intact.
I believe we are.
It's not big numbers, <UNK>.
I think you can look at what's going on with other media and the numbers they're reporting.
And clearly, they're losing share.
Most of that is going to the Googles and Facebooks of the world.
<UNK>ut because we're growing in the face of a shrinking ad pie for traditional media, by definition we're taking a little bit of share.
Yes, thanks, <UNK>.
I think this is ---+ on the tuck-in acquisition front, this is going to kind of be a "steady as she goes" year.
As you know, when you take a look at our free cash flow after everything, after all CapEx, after interest, after the distribution, we have a little more than $100 million leftover at the end of the day.
And it feels to us like that\
Yes, thanks, <UNK>.
It's the former.
I mean, if you look at our footprint, 80% of our sales come from markets that are outside the top 20 DMAs.
And in the world of middle-market media in general, and middle-market outdoor in particular, the sales mix in places like <UNK>aton Rouge and Tallahassee and Little Rock and places that look and sound like that tends to be in that sort of 85%, 15% range, 15% national, 85% local.
And consequently, we do have a much larger local sales force than our colleagues.
We've got about 960 account executives that touch those local customers every day.
So I would say it's mostly a function of where we are and somewhat a function of our sales tactics and very large local sales force.
Well, the first quarter wasn't great.
So being up 1.3%, you're slicing it pretty thin on what drove that.
I would say as a general comment that today Lamar's platform is at normalized occupancy.
And, historically, normalized occupancy for our bulletin product, which is our largest product, is around low 80s percent occupancy on an annualized basis.
And for our poster product, it's sort of low 70s annualized occupancy.
And we're there.
So anything we're picking up now to us feels like driving rate.
And so I would say it's coming from rate.
And to the extent we're able to hit our goals for 2017, it's going to have to come from rate.
Well, thank you all for listening in.
We look forward to visiting with you in 3 months' time to talk about how the second quarter went.
Thanks again.
