TDG
#Morning.
Yes, on the commercial transport aftermarket, if I look at previous cycles around flight hours, this seems to me to be down a lot.
It seems to me, typically these have started to come back and have caught up.
I don't know of any change in the underlying use or consumption of the parts, so at some point it's got to pick up.
Now, do I call the turn exactly right.
I don't know.
That's our best judgment as we sit here today.
As I said, if we're off a little, we think we may have some margin room if you look at it down in EBITDA or EPS.
I don't have any crystal ball to call the turn exactly.
And what was your other question about the BizJet.
Yes, they were down pretty significantly.
You know, our assumptions are roughly they don't stay like that, they pick up a little bit through the year.
It seems to us to be an overreaction.
Now, the commercial Helicopter business is pretty bumpy, as I'm sure you know, and aftermarket OEM, but that's not a lot of our business.
So I don't see that driving it much, but I would expect the aftermarket from the Business Jets to be a little better, though I have to say, the aftermarket Business Jet bookings weren't great in the quarter.
That's in the aftermarket.
The OEM bookings were quite good.
You have to see a pickup in demand, <UNK>.
As you know, if you take the numbers this quarter and take the numbers for the year and divide by three, you've got to see a pickup in demand.
Historically, that's happened after a period like this.
You've ended up with some pretty high quarters.
If pickup doesn't happen, we won't meet the number.
Now that doesn't mean we won't meet our revenue or EPS numbers some other way, but that segment, we would not meet it.
Well, our assumption going into the year wasn't much growth there.
Now it wasn't a drop like we saw in the first quarter, so we're kind of the same place as we were going into the year ---+ that's sort of a flattish market.
And you know, it's not running at a real high level.
Every year, everybody thinks it's going to pick up, but it hasn't.
Now, the underlying take-off and landings aren't great, but they're not drastically down.
Almost entirely Breeze.
Almost entirely.
Anything else was puts and takes.
If some unit went up, something else went down to offset it.
It's almost dollar per dollar Breeze.
I can cover that.
So the last thing we did was last April or May of 2015.
I think the coupon on that was about 6.5%.
Kind of stepping back from the standpoint of the market, the high-yield market has a lot of volatility in there and is primarily in the oil and gas area.
There is a lot of demand for quality paper that we have.
We talk to our banks on several occasions and we stay close to them and there would be a lot of interest in us issuing more paper if we had to.
We don't see the need at this point in time.
But ultimately, if we were to go to market today in today's conditions, we're probably looking at something in the 7.25%, 7.5% range as a coupon rate.
That's for step up and leverage.
Not to replace.
Right.
Just a step up and leverage for new issuance bond ---+ unsecured bond.
I think it's just the shipments are so low, <UNK>.
I don't think it's because, it's not that the bookings are so off, it's the shipments are disproportionately down.
That's the point I was trying to make.
No, we're not.
We're not avoiding it.
It's just, we have the same sort all the time, proprietary aerospace significant aftermarket content.
What we pay is dependent on what we think of the outlook of it.
We're neither avoiding nor are we seeking military, disproportionately.
We're just going to go through it, look at the platforms, look at our forecast, look at our view of it, and price it accordingly.
Did you say since the end of the quarter.
Yes.
I don't want to comment on short-term times like that.
I think we'll wait until the quarter and talk about it when we have the data.
I don't want to start anecdotally commenting.
It surely could be.
But I don't want to hang on anything specific unless I have the data pretty clearly.
But it's not unusual that we see inventory adjustments at the end of the year.
People wanting to polish things up.
It's all over the map.
It's all over the map for the businesses.
Some have a catalog they put out once a year, but it's not necessarily on a calendar cycle.
Some don't ---+ some don't have a catalog, they price a lot of it on demand.
So, there's not a one point in time when you can say that they step up.
I don't think so.
The real answer is I think it's pretty ratable through the year.
Maybe a little weighted toward the prices going in in the first half of the year, but then you have to work through the backlog a little bit, so.
No.
