DKS
#Thank you.
So you can look at it as a favorable backdrop to last year, but I think the consumer is fine.
The consumer, as a couple of other retailers have indicated, has kind of cycled out into some other categories right now and so I think that's a bit of an issue at traditional retail.
We're taking a look at what's happening in the hunt business still, based on the recent trends that we've had and we feel that this is the guidance we are comfortable giving right now.
The other component of this, too, is that we feel they'll be some pressure from the TSA closings in this first quarter, second quarter, I don't know how far they'll go.
Longer term, I think it will be a net positive for us, but the TSA closings and the promotional activity could have an impact.
In those stores, I suspect that they're closing and running some going out of business sales, they'll move merchandise from other stores in there to try to clear it out.
If they have a liquidator, a liquidator will bring in some additional merchandise to try to clean out of there.
So there's going to be some competitive pressure in this first quarter with the TSA closings, we suspect.
That's not entirely true.
We did have outerwear that, post the end of the fiscal, we were still clearing true.
So it was kind of a mix of things.
As Ed said, we managed our orders, we did promotion which carried through into part of the first quarter and then we had the vendor agreements as well as the packaway.
And then we do have some of the ramp-up of the investments that we talked about, so some of those will start to hit the first quarter and will impact that.
No.
We're relocating some stores, but we don't have any real ---+ it's a gross number.
There's not much.
Yes, we haven't been specific quarter by quarter other than to indicate that the way the variety of factors will fall, we do expect the first quarter and the third quarter to be below prior year.
And then the second half we will start to see, particularly in the fourth quarter, better progress.
Well, in the fourth quarter we will have, from an overall earnings standpoint, I was talking.
So there will be peaks of spending.
So for example, as Ed mentioned, in the third quarter that's where the bulk of the Olympics spending will be, which is why we expect that quarter to be below prior year.
The footwear investments and the store environment investments will be more pro rata, slightly less in the fourth quarter, so you start to get some slowdown in the fourth quarter.
We don't talk about category by category specifically, but the team sports area, we think it's still going to ---+ is an important business for us, it's a growing business for us.
And the longer term would be with the TSA Sports closings, that business should get even better for us longer term.
Sure.
That's really more a function of the nature of the lease terms.
And so as we do more, and it's really to non-cash accounting kind of effect as opposed to a cash effect, so it really is a function of moving more toward a reverse build to suit, where we take on some accelerated timing of the recognition of rent, which then reverses itself over the remaining term of the rent.
So as we have, particularly with our combo store format, that tends to be more in that kind of lease structure and so that's where you're seeing the elevation.
I just want to be clear, the $90 million is not all being returned to vendors, it is split between that and packaway.
And it's through a broad range of vendors that we've cooperated with that have cooperated with us.
I wouldn't call out any one or two vendors that is the majority of it.
Correct.
We didn't say there was no benefit.
We said there may not be any net benefit this year.
There could be pressure as they go through the liquidation and then as we get to the back half of the year, we could be picking up some market share.
Net net, it could be neutral this year.
We expect it to be positive next year.
No.
We're reacting to what they have disclosed, which is 140 stores.
If it's more than that, then we'll go after ---+ we will take a look at what those stores are and will try to go after those stores also.
But right now, (technical difficulty) they've announced 140, that's all we know.
There's a host of other brands that will be supporting this also and we're going through the process right now and we'll let you know next quarter how many we think we will get done for this year.
Well, there's some things that have changed.
So what the pressure is going to be with TSA right now, what the opportunity will be with TSA going forward with what's happening with some other competitors, so we'll try to come back to you with some more information over the next couple of quarters, but there's just too much uncertainty in the marketplace right now to talk very meaningfully about that.
Thanks.
I'd like to thank everyone for joining us today as we discussed our fourth-quarter call and we look forward to talking about our first-quarter call in a couple of months.
Thank you.
