PGR
#They are mostly comp at least on the vehicle side.
So typically when we give you numbers for frequency and severity, we don't put comp in there because it's ---+ that would just be a random walk in terms of your graph.
So most of the frequency and severity numbers we give you are the more sustainable coverages like BI, UMBI, PD, but certainly as we look at it, yes, it factors in.
Well, I'm probably going to [rate] myself here a little bit.
The last quarter, we had our ---+ 2015 fourth quarter wasn't that much different than 2014 fourth quarter.
As we start this first quarter of 2016, we are starting to see that be considerably above.
That tracks with gasoline demand.
That all makes reasonable sense.
Now the question is how high will it go.
Well, people aren't going to drive infinite miles just because gas is cheaper.
They are not going to drive to work more often, so this is more recreational and discretionary type trips.
And frankly, I think everybody can have a theory on that.
I would just tell you that what has changed is, in the first quarter, we are seeing miles driven as our Snapshot population, which is large enough to be credible ---+ I'd make the claim that is different than the claim I made for the fourth quarter where we hadn't seen it be dramatic; in fact, it had flattened off.
It is now showing increase and we are going into what is really the high vehicle mile traveled part of the year.
So it'll be interesting to see whether or not the discretionary usage continues to be higher or not.
In this one, <UNK>, I think all I can do is report the news.
We have incredible interest in this sort of thing because it makes a big difference.
But whether I could say that we are seeing a dramatic change in frequency simply because of that; no, we take it as it comes and the indications that because those miles are more discretionary and longer distance trips that the effect on frequency is not quite as linear as you might expect.
I wouldn't bet against you on that one.
I don't have the April numbers.
Actually, as soon as I get off this call, I'm actually probably going to get more of the April numbers.
That will be very interesting, yes.
And I would add, while we can't model it perfectly, we think gas prices ---+ there's some step functions in there.
Certainly back when we hit $4, that was a ceiling that people retracted a lot, but we think in some reasonable range, sort of the marginal change in driving is not that linear with gas prices.
Airline travel too for discretionary travel, yes.
Unfortunately, we report the news more here, but we have our own theories, but I don't dismiss or suggest that yours is not an interesting one as well.
April will tell a story because we are really going into April and May and June, which are the high travel vehicle miles traveled months.
<UNK>, do you want to jump in on that.
