GWR
#Right now we are about 3.5 times.
Assuming no other acquisitions, just assume that the free cash flow generation that we have next year is all used for paying down debt.
That's one way to look at it.
And that is going to give you something closer to 3 times.
It is all math at that point.
Yes, no, I mean it's a ---+ are you seeing new trends.
I mean, our trends are so negative that is kind of hard; you're talking about relative degrees of negativity.
And so I think about it versus prior expectations back in August.
What you see in our fourth-quarter outlook is some softening in paper due to some rationalization in that industry, with some plants being taken down in the fourth quarter.
And we've seen some softening in the steel order books.
And we've seen the price of gas drop very low, which makes you a little nervous about your coal.
And you have seen our coal outlook come down accordingly.
And so those are ---+ in terms of what you are comparing that AAR data to in our world, we have seen some of that softness, and that is cast in our outlook right now.
Well, you know, you actually ---+ we've had good visibility into when mines have been closing and are accordingly able to very carefully adjust our cost structure.
If you look at our Australian results, we've made some huge adjustments in order to mitigate the losses of a tremendous amount of iron ore revenue, and part of that is because of the visibility to when those mine closures took place.
And then the redeployment of the equipment ---+ it depends on the service, but in some cases you are able to cascade certain newer equipment to replace older equipment and realize immediate efficiencies in that regard.
And then you look at, through that cascade, perhaps deploying that excess equipment to bidding on new business in other geographies in other sectors that are not as ---+ you know, Australia does not just produce iron ore.
There is a lot of other stuff that is shipping there.
So we ---+ and it is open access, so you're able to take that equipment with limitations on gauge and geography to some degree, and participate in other parts of the market.
So it's ---+ there is ---+ we are constantly attentive to it, worrying about it, thinking about it, and have been able to make the adjustments really on a real-time basis, as you can see in the numbers.
The Australian team has done a very good job.
I mean, there parallel projects that we have not talked about on the outside.
But some of the reasons the costs have come down is we have done things like we completely insourced all track maintenance.
We completely insourced all mechanical maintenance.
And with that, we've been able to bring the productivity and the cost structure down as well.
So there is ---+ these savings don't just happen.
They are requiring a lot of advanced planning and work.
No, it should be ---+ all the stuff I am talking about is just incremental.
That is why you speak to it very comfortably, because you are taking a fixed cost and turning it into a piece of business immediately.
Well, it depends on how you allocate costs.
But it is actually a lower-margin business, and that is not obvious right now, because you've got a bunch of lease costs that are fixed right now that you are absorbing.
But if you actually look at it, that is the more competitive part of the market in that area.
So it is the least painful part of the business to lose.
Great, well, thank you all for joining us this morning.
And we look forward to speaking with you on the next call.
