KHC
#Thank you, Chris, and good afternoon, everyone.
Let me start by saying that we are feeling more confident about our outlook, with Q1 in line to do slightly better than our expectations from the February call.
If you recall, there were several factors that lead us to be cautioned on our top line performance for the first half of 2018, including the headwinds in United States from Planters and Ore-Ida, the impact from retail inventory reductions in Canada and the risk we saw in Brazil from our [SAP] implementation.
At EBITDA, we spoke about near-term pressures in the United States and Rest of the World from accelerated investments in go-to-market capabilities, big bet launches and increasing working media dollars and best-in-class customer service as well as significant cost inflation, especially freight at the beginning of the year.
On the whole, it played out as expected.
And we continue to expect many of the same factors to remain in Q2 as we anticipated in the outlook we provided in the February call.
Outside these transitory factors, we are seeing ongoing improvement in consumption trends in most countries and in most of the key categories that we believe will drive both top- and bottom-line growth into the second half of the year.
These includes positive trends brands in the first quarter ---+ it's actually the fourth quarter in categories such as natural cheese, meals and desserts and ready-to-drink beverage in the United States; cheese and coffee in Canada; condiments and sauces across Europe; soups and meals in U.K.; and baby food in Russia; condiments and pasta sauce in Latin America as well as soy sauce in Indonesia.
More important to highlight for the balance of 2018, for 2019 and beyond is that these gains are being driven by the investment and progress we are making to build capability for sustainable advantage to our iconic brands.
On Slide 3, we show 6 goals from our framework presentation that we set to fulfill the Kraft Heinz vision to become the best food company [worthy] of that award.
For instance, we set a goal to be the industry's number 1 in marketing... (technical difficulty) ...possibilities, and we are investing in our portfolio of brands to a data-driven approach to win with consumers.
It's fair to say that we have spent the last 2 years on the necessary renovation for our portfolio, largely by focusing on marketing and efficiency and product renovation.
We are playing more offense with higher commercial investments, especially behind incremental innovation.
In data-driven marketing, we continue to develop proprietary in-house tools to better measure quality impressions across new mediums like mobile and to understand the impact of how digital initiatives have on net sales, all at a faster, real-time pace.
In the first quarter alone, our Super Bowl ad kicking off the Kraft master brand campaign generate more than 2 billion impressions.
We executed a data-driven target digital campaign in U.K. Soups, helping us gain more than 1 point of share during strong soup season and grow sales 10%.
Also in U.K., our campaign behind an In-N-Out product, chocolate favored mayo during Easter season, generate 3.5 billion impressions for Heinz series good mayo.
Think about that.
More than 3 billion impressions in a country 1/5 the size of the United States.
And in a classic definition of adaptable, data-driven marketing, our U.S. team's quick response around consumer and social media interests in Mayochup generate more than 1 billion impressions within 48 hours, this coming at a time when we are just launching Heinz Real Mayonnaise in the United States and Canada.
In innovation, we are pushing into new categories, new segments, new locations, in many cases, to premium position.
And we are doing this with a focus on incrementality, not just grow sales from new items.
In the United States, for instance, our innovation funnel has gotten wider every single year.
And in 2018, we plan to launch roughly 60% more innovation projects than we did in 2016.
And more launches are designed to be incremental to our current base such as breakthrough innovation in new daypart like we are doing with Just Crack an Egg for breakfast, a refrigerated product that's now selling faster than we can make it.
Disrupt innovation like Heinz Premium Mayonnaise in building on our presence in snacking by complementing P3 with Oscar Mayer Natural Meat and Cheese Plates, Philadelphia Bagel Chips & Cream Cheese Dips and Planters' signatory nuts as well as partnering with growing equities to bring specialty items to market with our new springboard platform and through joint ventures, items like Momofuku sauce.
(inaudible)... (technical difficulty) ...that's good wholesome foods, and Food Network meal kit and cooking sauces.
Outside of the United States, you've already seen the impact of incremental sales from the Kraft brands in Europe and should soon see the same in Australia.
And in our Rest of the World markets, we expect gains from whitespace launches under Kraft, Heinz and Planters to show more strongly in the second half of the year.
In our effort to maximize category managers, we have significantly impacted [fewer hats].
At retail in the United States, for instance, we still have room to improve the effectiveness of our promotional activities.
We expect key summer and winter reset windows to improve SKU adoption, distribution and velocities to our assortment management and planogram tools.
In U.S. foodservice, we have started to streamline our product catalog, emphasizing high-velocity SKUs, which also reduce supply chain complexity.
And across our results, we recently made our global Center of Excellence in the Netherlands, our global hub for assortment management, adding this capability to the revenue management team to drive value and growth.
In go-to-market capabilities, we continue to take actions that will enable us to improve our ability to get the right product at the right place at the right time for our consumers and capture what we believe could be significant incremental organic growth.
Our in-house, in-store sales teams in the United States is now 80% larger than this time last year.
And we have seen incremental returns we expect versus the previous brokers-only approach in-store everywhere we have implemented this new model.
In foodservice, we are capturing whitespace opportunity in some of our most developed markets: the United States and Europe, a good indication that there is more untapped potential in this channel.
And in e-commerce, our team is developing in-house data science and consumer analytics expertise with a focus on building consumer baskets that, together, with single-item purchase, can leverage the breadth of the Kraft Heinz portfolio and make it a better partner to our retail customers.
We are also making significant progress in our goal to create best-in-class operations.
We are pacing ahead of aggressive industry-leading targets in quality, safety and customer service in nearly all geographies we operate, even as we ramp up to get new state-of-the-art factory in Davenport, Kirksville, China and Brazil, producing to their potential.
And on costs, while inflationary pressures have continued across procurement, logistics and manufacturing, we viewed a solid pipeline of projects in each area to minimize these pressures, which should come through in the second half of the year.
In other words, even though we substantially complete our Integration Program in Q4, we remain in a strong position to both offset cost inflation and fuel high-return investments in our brand.
These include investing in the development of our people where, in the first quarter alone, Kraft Heinz employees completed nearly 60,000 courses through our interactive or diversity online platform.
We cannot underestimate how critical it is in this rapidly changing environment to develop our people to new competencies and skill building in areas like sales, marketing, leadership, problem-solving and R&D because we know that our people are what we will need Kraft Heinz to adapt to these new times and to win in the marketplace.
So to summarize.
One, we are building capabilities to create brand and category advantage to achieve profitable growth.
Two, we are investing aggressively now in order to see the benefits sooner.
And three, these are key factors shaping what's likely to be an atypical balance of net sales and EBITDA between first half and second half in 2018.
So let me hand over to <UNK> to explain how these factors impact Q1 results and how the commercial momentum we are investing to build is likely to play out in our financials.
Thank you, <UNK>, and hello, everyone.
Turning to Slide 4.
From a total company perspective, organic net sales were down 1.5 percentage points in Q1, consistent with the expectations we laid out on the last call.
Pricing was positive for the third consecutive quarter, up 1 percentage point and driven by favorable pricing in the United States and Rest of World markets.
Volume/mix was 2.5 percentage points lower in Q1 due to known headwinds in the United States and Rest of World markets that overshadowed solid retail growth in EMEA and Canada, strong Easter programming in the United States and foodservice growth in both the U.S. and EME<UNK>
By segment, the U.S. was slightly better than our initial expectations.
Planters and Ore-Ida had a negative 1.5% impact, and trade spend timing was a 1.2% headwind to Q1 net sales.
Excluding these factors, underlying U.S. consumption was significantly better than reported results and continue to show sequential improvement.
In Canada, as expected, results reflect earlier go-to-market agreements with key retailers, with growth tempered by retail inventory reductions at a key retailer versus the end of 2017.
EMEA had a strong first quarter, driven by Soups and Meals growth in the U.K. as well as Condiments and Sauces growth across the zone, including Southeast and Central Europe, where we are now selling the Kraft brand.
In Rest of World, top line growth was supported by pricing, while vol/mix was held back by distribution-related issues, primarily realignment in Mexico and continued disruption in Puerto Rico, a seafood shortage in Southeast Asia that is impacting our canned business in Indonesia and the implementation of SAP in Brazil.
That said, we do expect sequential improvement moving forward.
At EBITDA, Q1 performance was slightly better than expected, although the drivers were consistent with our expectations, specifically: solid gains from productivity savings in net pricing; gains that were offset by inflationary pressures, primarily elevated freight and resin costs; as well as costs associated with our aggressive commercial investment agenda.
At adjusted EPS, we were up $0.05 versus Q1 last year, driven primarily by a roughly 730 basis point reduction in the adjusted effective tax rate versus Q1 last year, while other below-the-line items largely offset one another.
One final note I'd like to make about Q1 results that's not on the page is our cash generation.
In Q1, we delivered nearly $500 million of additional cash versus the year-ago period.
This came from a combination of lower capital expenditures, lower cash taxes and lower working capital.
In sum, our Q1 financial performance was in line to better-than-expected and provides a solid start to delivering our full year outlook outlined on Slide 5.
To start, we continue to expect 2018 will be a year where just less than 1/2 of our net sales and EBITDA will be delivered in the first half of the year and more than 1/2 in the second half.
And this is compared to 2017 where net sales and EBITDA were roughly equally split between first half and second half.
In fact, in Q2, while the set of sales and cost headwinds will be similar to Q1, and we will continue to press our aggressive commercial investment agenda, we will be up against our strongest EBITDA comparisons of the year in every reporting segment versus last year.
But as <UNK> said, with 4 months now behind us, we are getting visibility on a number of trend-bending drivers, both commercially and operationally, that are giving us confidence in a strong second half and solid momentum heading into 2019.
To be more specific, we see 4 tangible drivers in the turnaround in the second half of 2018.
First, the transitory headwind in the U.S. during the first half should not just fade but are likely to turn into positive year-on-year contributors, given strong go-to-market plans for Planters nuts, Oscar Mayer cold cuts and our Frozen business.
Second, and also in the U.S., we expect to begin seeing more benefit from the investments in category management and go-to-market capabilities, benefiting both the strong innovation agenda we have planned as well as our in-store presence with key customers.
Third, is international growth, driven by a combination of innovation and whitespace initiatives in virtually every market: Canada, EMEA and Rest of World.
And fourth is leveraging greater net savings as the benefits from the initiatives we have at work across procurement, logistics and manufacturing ramp up.
From an overall perspective, we remain confident in delivering positive constant currency EBITDA growth and strong adjusted EPS growth for the full year, as we outlined in February.
And to be clear, we're targeting EBITDA growth versus the revised 2017 base, following the new accounting standards we've implemented.
For earnings per share, we now expect an incremental $40 million of depreciation and amortization versus $70 million previously, and we continue to expect incremental interest expense of roughly $100 million versus last year and effective tax rate of approximately 23% for the full year.
And in terms of cash generation, as evidenced by our strong Q1, we continue to expect a significant step-up in cash generation from a combination of lower capital expenditures, lower cash taxes and lower working capital.
To close, I'd echo <UNK>'s earlier thoughts on the year and our path forward that we're developing capabilities to create brand and category advantage to achieve profitable growth that we're investing aggressively now in order to see the benefits sooner and that these are the key factors shaping what is likely to be an atypical balance of net sales and EBITDA between the first half and the second half in 2018.
Now we'd be happy to take your questions.
<UNK>, this is <UNK>.
Thanks for your question here.
So let step back on pricing a little bit and give you some more color on Q1 and then going forward.
So in Q1, we realized a fair amount of carryover pricing from last year.
So you saw that we're up 1% overall for Kraft Heinz.
And this is really in the places that we planned, okay, outside of key commodities.
So this is something that will likely lap going into the rest of the year.
Outside that pricing, pricing-added commodities was pretty stable for the quarter, and we expect that to maintain stability going forward.
So that's kind of our Q1 pricing.
Going forward, as a matter of practice, we don't talk about potential future pricing actions, so I won't get to that.
But what I will say is we continue to be very confident in the strength of our brands, and we will continue to strike a balance between market share and profitable volume for each of our categories.
Ken, this is <UNK>.
Thank you for the question.
So as I said earlier, 2018 is likely to be a bit less first half and a bit more in the second half.
And that compares to the roughly 50-50 split that we had last year in 2017.
So obviously, shifting very few percentage points can cause significant year-over-year percentage changes.
And on top of that, particularly in Q2, given what we're up against in terms of having the strongest EBITDA comparisons on a margin perspective last year in every geographic segment.
So that's something that will be relevant for next quarter.
That being said, again, I think there are 3 very highly tangible drivers to our kind of second half outlook.
First, as I said, the transitory headwinds in the U.S., including Nuts, Cold Cuts and Ore-Ida.
These are 3 significant factors that should fade into the second half.
Second, we have a very strong innovation pipeline and whitespace agenda across the company this year that, I think, EMEA is actually already kind of proving out for us, and that will gain traction in the U.S., Canada and Rest of World.
Finally, on the bottom line, our savings curve should catch up to inflation that we've seen in the business and the investments that we made in the business as the year progresses.
So that's kind of, again, our breakdown for the year.
And again, just to kind of reiterate what we said, the capabilities we're building in category management, brand building and go-to-market that we're investing this year aggressively, this will benefit us both later into 2018 and will benefit us in 2019 and going forward.
Just to complement <UNK>, adding to the Rest of the World.
You're going to have the same ---+ the similar story that an extensive number of projects, right, renovation and incrementality, and a set of projects that you call the big bet strategy, Ken.
That's why it's totally connected.
That's what we call the platinum launch, right.
Just to name a few, on international markets, we have Max Boost in Canada.
We have several in Kraft territory in Europe, right, now coming to Australia as well.
We have Jif Jaf cookies in China.
I have the entire Heinz baby food renovation in Europe.
And Asia, I have the premium line in soy sauce; in Indonesia, pasta sauce; in Japan, salts.
Those are some of key platinum innovation that master the big bets concept that you just addressed.
At the same time, we are wider, widening our innovation pipeline worldwide.
<UNK>, this is <UNK>.
Thank you for the question here.
So as you know, broadly, we manage EBITDA dollars, not to margin, whether it's EBITDA margin or gross margins.
We're very focused on growing our EBITDA dollars.
That being said, in Q1, you saw our gross margin overall was essentially flat versus prior year.
I think the 2 things to note on that: one, we did have a small benefit from the timing of pension and postretirement costs, and this is something that's not going to repeat.
And two, we did have another small benefit from a mix impact from the Easter shift into Q1 from Q2 that's going to work against us next quarter.
Going forward, again, I'd expect sales growth to improve before EBITDA growth and before EBITDA improves.
And again, coming back to the fact that we have inflation coming into this year, any accelerated investments that we're making in the business that run ahead of our savings curve and the ramp-up in our commercial growth.
No, it's ---+ again, I'm not going to speak to the gross margin by segment or by zone for us but again, we're happy with the performance in Q1.
We're running consistent with our plan for the year.
And again, that plan is going to be very second-half weighted with the 3 kind of tangible drivers that I talked about with the headwinds in the U.S., including nuts, cold cuts and Ore-Ida savings through the year, with the strong innovation and whitespace agenda in EMEA and Rest of World and the U.S. and Canada and our savings curve that should catch up with inflation and investments.
Thanks, <UNK>.
It is <UNK>.
Look, let me try to address your question and direction, right.
I think the disrupted market and change in channels, consumer habits and so on, that's happening for quite some time, and that's something we have been acknowledged also for, for some time, right.
Part of a ---+ a significant part of our commercial investments, right, that we announced at the end of last year, the $250 million to $300 million is behind new digital initiatives, right.
Behind e-commerce, behind new channels, behind go-to-market, behind the innovation that's coming to market to support it and behind working dollars in media as well as service.
With that being said, I think the big message here is really that there will be ---+ we don't ---+ we cannot have any compliance with the brands we have.
It's actually the opposite.
We believe in the big brands when you support them, right, when you give them the right relevancy, the right product offering in the marketplace, they go really well.
The key, for example, as you think about Heinz in the United States has been growing 15% every year since 2015.
The relaunch of the Kraft brand with the Super Bowl campaign with Family Greatly is giving us a lot of excitement behind Kraft with new offers in cheese and other segments that can be very relevant.
But it's also true to say that these big brands have the scale that have the profitability, right.
They will need to come with new offers from different angles and different categories for smaller brands and so on, and we are doing that if you think about the case of Devour on the frozen territory.
If you think about Just Crack An Egg going for breakfast in refrigerated, right.
If you think about the things we're doing with brands like Classico, like Cool Whip, like A1.
If you think about extension of the Planters, the Planters signature work and nutrition, right.
So the combination of the 2 things are extremely important.
So in ---+ to answer your question, it's changed our capital allocation mindset.
My answer is no.
Actually, I think it's very in line with what we have been saying for quite some time, right.
Our framework for capital allocation, organic and inorganic has not changed.
We continue to like big brands.
We continue to like business that can travel and continue to like business that we can generate efficient ---+ that can be invested behind growth, brands, products and people.
<UNK>, this is <UNK>.
Thanks for the question there.
So let me walk through a little bit zone-by-zone or geography-by-geography for Q2 on the sales side.
So from a top line perspective in the U.S., we expect to be kind of sequentially similar to Q1, okay.
So we still expect to see the impact of the headwinds from Planters in [Club] and from Ore-Ida and Cold Cuts, as we talked about.
And again, this will be about a 1.5 percentage point headwind for us.
In addition to that, we have a combination of trade phasing and the Easter shift, the reverse that we saw in Q1, which, combined, should be about a 1-point headwind for us.
So overall, pretty similar to what we saw in Q1.
If you look for each of the other zones in Canada, we will see the most difficult Q2 comparison, driven by 3 factors.
So first, we had a retailer inventory kind of rebuild in Q2 that we'll be lapping, and this was particularly strong in Cheese.
Two, we had a strong summer 2017 program ---+ programming, which is primarily in our Condiments business.
And three, the fact that our innovation pipeline in 2018 is a little more second-half weighted than it was in 2017, okay.
And then if you look to Rest of World, we expect to see kind of sequential improvement through the year as the investments we're making and that we accelerated in 2018 really materialize.
And then in Europe, excited and continue to be confident in our strong growth for the year.
<UNK>, it is <UNK>.
Addressing the first question you had about M&<UNK>
I really don't think it changed the framework and the way we think about that.
We are very long-term focused, right.
We are very disciplined in the approach.
We have about M&A really looking at things that 2 plus 2 is more than 4.
Like I mentioned in the question before, our framework to look that ---+ of liking brands, business that can travel and synergies that can capture, that allows us to revamp is still in place.
So I don't think, though, those [movements] that you're talking about is top [right], getting in the way ---+ or interest rates getting in the way of this framework and this long-term framework.
What is right that you said that the valuations you are seeing today are more attractive than we have seen 6 months ago and 12 months ago even for us in a relativity basis.
<UNK>, this is <UNK>.
Let me take freight for you.
So I'll split this into kind of 2 pieces.
So first up on footprint, when we did the initial modeling on each of these footprint projects, we took into consideration potential kind of variable changes, whether it's fuel or other kind of costs that could potentially cause fluctuations going forward.
And I'd say, all that being the case, we're still very happy with what we did on the footprint side.
Second, in terms of kind of inflationary pressures we're seeing, so not surprisingly, we are seeing inflationary pressures similar to what some of our peers have talked about, whether it's in packaging, whether it's in oil or freight but what I will say is while these things ---+ these costs are definitely higher, we certainly feel it's manageable from the context of our savings curve, and we're still kind of on plan to our 2018 targets despite that.
<UNK>, this is <UNK>.
Let me address the first part of your question, then I'm going to ask <UNK> to comment.
On the portfolio, what I can say that we ---+ as you have been saying, we're happy with the existing portfolio.
I think, each brand and category does play a role.
For sure, they're in a different stage of their life and the categories have different performance, as expected.
But in general terms, we're happy with that.
Also true that after 2.5 years of integration, our understanding of each one of the category is much deeper.
It allows us to measure the returns of each one of them and their perspective looking 5, 10 years in a much better way than we would say that 1.5 years ago, right.
So we do look at each category, in each transaction in a different way.
But in general, I'd say we're happy with our portfolio.
<UNK>, you want to complement the question, please.
Thanks, <UNK>, and thanks for the question, <UNK>.
This is <UNK>.
So in terms of balance sheet, what I'd say is, again, as I said before, we continue to be very focused on delevering.
We are fully committed to investment-grade status.
That is nonnegotiable for us.
That is top priority for us from a capital policy perspective.
So I think I just want to reiterate that point.
Second, on the year, we may not get all the way to our intended run rate in 2018.
That's largely going to be in part due to the fact that we prefunded our postretirement, medical and part of our pension at the end of last year.
But bottom line, we're very happy with where the balance sheet is.
We believe our credit's very strong and getting better.
We significantly derisked the balance sheet.
We expect significant cash benefits from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that I talked about last quarter.
And we expect considerably better post-integration free cash flow as well.
So again, we feel very good about the balance sheet and are committed to our investment-grade status.
<UNK>, thanks for the question.
This is <UNK>.
So in terms of the investment profile, I'd say, from a P&L perspective, should be pretty consistent through the year.
So I wouldn't expect a lot of volatility there.
I think it's important to kind of talk a little bit about where we're investing, again, which we talked about on the last call.
So first, we're investing in go-to-market, and that's both in the U.S. in-store sales that <UNK> talked a little about earlier.
We're investing in e-commerce, like <UNK> mentioned, as well as distribution expansion in some of our key international markets like China and Latin America.
And these types of investments will largely be through our SG&A line.
Second, we're investing heavily in service, and that's primarily North America but we're also investing in Europe as well.
And this type of investment will largely flow through our cost of goods sold line.
And then finally, we're investing in working media dollars, which we plan to drive in 2018 and we'll also be more concentrated in our SG&A line.
<UNK>, I think it's a fair question.
Well, I think a lot to what <UNK> already highlighted before, right, the trends answer we're seeing here, <UNK> and <UNK>, are pretty much related to contracts that we're able to regain on the Nuts territory will be behind us.
The constraint we are having capacity on the potato territory.
Our innovation is coming really strong as we speak, right.
And even with all the inflation pressure described by <UNK>, the actions we have put in place on the cost side, especially on the procurement manufacturing side, they are very weighted towards the second half of the year.
So when I look about sales and EBITDA, for sure, we need to execute.
But all the drivers of the joint business plans with the main client in the United States and Canada and in Europe, Asia and Latin America are in place.
The main trend bands we are seeing in the top categories where we are still suffering decline are in place.
And the innovation is coming to market.
So by all means, we are seeing consumptions to continue to get better in most parts of the countries we operate.
So there is a lot for us to do like we have in our analogy.
We know still there are headwinds against us coming in Q2 but we are confident that the actions we are taking today and the investments we are putting in place will start to pay out in the second half of the year, carrying this momentum into 2019.
Look ---+ thanks, <UNK>.
Look, as a matter of practice, we don't like to comment on rumors and speculations or on peers' transaction, right.
I think what we can say, again, that we ---+ our framework for M&A has not changed, like I highlighted before.
And we are disciplined in a sense of seeing price and then return and long-term shareholder value because remember, the way we operate and invest as owners, that we have a very long-term perspective, right.
We're definitely not traders in that sense.
We look those things that we can own and create value for a longer-term view.
So in that sense, we do believe the valuations are definitely more attractive today even if you think about relative valuations.
If the price is right, we believe we can move when we do find a situation that 2 plus 2 is more than 4.
<UNK>, this is <UNK>.
So look, I think our #1 goal, as <UNK> said, is to generate shareholder value over the long term.
So we'll look at any opportunity that comes our way but we're not going to speak to any sort of hypotheticals.
But again, that's our #1 goal, and we'll look across a number of different potential opportunities.
Thank you, everybody.
