AXP
#Well, <UNK>, the short answer is no, I'm not going to walk you through that level of detail, because we would consider it competitively sensitive to be that precise about the areas we're targeting for opportunity, and also because as the world changes, it's very important that we retain flexibility to react to the evolving environment.
I think I would go back to the themes I talked about earlier.
What makes us believe we can moderate spending, without losing our ability to grow revenues.
Well, it's our evolving use of Big Data, the growth in the percentage of our new Card acquisitions that comes through [digital] channels that are very efficient, and it's through focusing on the areas of greatest opportunity.
The only point I would make, <UNK>, and I would say we're in an even better situation, because of the progress we've made on data analytics and performance marketing.
But if we go back over the last 15 years, the reality is, we've gone through periods of elevated spending where we saw opportunities, and then we've reaped the benefits three or four or five years down the road, even when we have moved down those levels of spending.
So we have an opportunity, and we're taking advantage of it, and I would say the analytics and the capabilities that we've developed give me confidence that we'll take advantage of those opportunities, and the efficiencies that we have brought to bear in our business over the last several years have really produced good results.
So we feel that that dynamic is something that we can continue, and we're going to continue to push very aggressively.
So to be very precise, think about a 2015 base of [11.3], which takes out those ---+ doesn't include the Q4 charge.
And so as we think about the $1 billion cost target, the reality is, we've done the easy stuff.
It will take us till end of 2017 to get to a full run rate, but if you think about full-year 2017 results, we should get at least down 3% below 2015.
All right.
So we'll split this up.
I'll do Starwood; I'll have <UNK> talk about FX.
Obviously, it would be totally inappropriate for me to go into the terms of the contract, but what I would say that's very clear is that if you have a group of customers that, in fact, have relied on getting very strong value for a product, the last thing you want to do is diminish the value of the product.
And as I said earlier, not just from us, but if you look at independent card surveys, the SPG product is one of the highest-rated products from a value standpoint.
So I think that the Marriott people are very customer-centric, very smart, and I don't think they would have done this deal if the objective was to dilute the value of products to some of their most important customers.
So that would just be my perspective.
I don't have any information from them there, but I do know, in some of what I have read publicly, they have talked about their excitement about having this type of customer, and the value that they put on it.
And so that would be my perspective.
And on FX, our comments today are based on the world as it exists today.
And so we basically presume all of the increase or strength of the US dollar that you've seen today, but not that it continues to get worse.
On provision, we've been very consistent in saying, we see a continued pathway to have loan growth grow at a good clip.
Obviously, provision will grow with it, and as we continue to get the cumulative impact of a lot of really good growth in loans, you have a different mix, more early-tenured folks.
So there's a little bit of seasoning that will also drive the provision rates up a bit.
So that's all built into the commentary we've made today.
