MNRO
#I think you summarized what we're considering.
First of all, the trend significantly changed almost immediately in April.
If you want to say that we underestimated what that would look like, I think that's a fair statement.
I just don't ---+ we're a needs-based business.
What I really see here is a pullback by the consumer off of a very light winter.
I think what gives me confidence about that is the fact that our southern markets are better and the fact that, later in the year, we really have easier comps.
And that's really what ---+ there's something going on with the consumer that wasn't present at the time we were having those discussions at conferences.
And I think that, for those reasons, it's going to improve as we work through the year.
I think what you're ---+ first of all, I think if you look back at that period you will see over the last several years that our comps have been down 50 basis points I think from 2014.
If you go back a few years earlier than that, just to give some perspective, we ran three years of plus seven prior to this tougher period.
What I referred to in the comments are that I know that there are more vehicles that are entering the six-plus age range over the next five years, and we really haven't had that.
It's been more flat.
Overall vehicles in operation have been flat and now that's coming back and growing.
The other important trend, older cars, is a trend that's going to continue for the next several years.
I think that helps.
And you're seeing that there are more vehicles per base.
The service stations and garages are exiting the marketplace.
So, when you look at overall vehicles in operation increasing 8% over the next five years, you look at the number of vehicles coming into the six plus going to be increasing for the next five years, and you look at the number of vehicles per day continuing to go up because small guys are exiting the market, I think that underpins what we've described as our comp opportunity on the traffic side.
And then, we've proven that we've been able to get something in price.
If you look at something like flat to plus two in traffic and flat to plus two in price, you get that 3% comp that we talk about.
Even in a softer year, we're generating $80 million to $90 million of free cash flow.
It won't all be debt.
Fair point, absolutely.
Thank you.
Good morning.
That is not all ASP.
There are some other related services like TPMS that we're doing a good job in there.
But, we did collect more on tires during the quarter.
We said that we will start to achieve operating leverage on any positive comp.
So, if you want to call it an inflation hurdle, inflation hurdle zero.
I assume you're talking about Pep Boys.
No.
I don't think they're driving the market.
I think it's a difficult ---+ it is a difficult environment, has been a difficult environment for some time.
I think some wage inflation would certainly help that, but the consumer overall is dealing with the higher cost that I talked about, and I do think that healthcare, rent, those kind of things are outstripping the benefit of gas.
We look at our own employees and we look at our customers, and we see a lot of similarities there.
And I think that's ---+ we've seen it over this couple of years in trade down and in increasing intervals in deferral.
That's the environment that we're describing and that we've been operating through.
And, again, the tougher the environment the more we'll grow the top line.
And that to me is the big hedge being the business model that we have that we continue to act on.
Sure.
Thank you.
Thank you all for your time this morning.
We remain focused on managing the business through this difficult environment and taking advantage of the significant growth opportunities it presents.
I look forward to reporting our progress in July.
And, as always, we appreciate your continued support and the efforts of our employees that work hard to take care of our customers every day.
Thanks again and have a great day.
