BBT
#For Susquehanna ---+ Bank of <UNK>tucky really doesn't have a huge amount of purchase accounting, so I'll just deal with mainly Susquehanna.
I would say that, with the credit mark that we have, which is about 4.5%, there will be approximately a little under $600 million of accretable purchase accounting income that basically goes through net interest income, over the life of the assets.
At the same time, though, we will have more loans that we take losses on, and those loans will increase provision.
And the timing won't necessarily match up.
It's too early to say what the losses will be in the Susquehanna portfolio.
But know that we pretty much locked down the $580 million over the life of the assets, so call that five-plus years.
But it would be more earlier on, and then it would tail off towards the end of the five-year period.
And the losses could be sporadic over that same time period.
The other thing to note is, the portfolio Susquehanna has, we're putting it on the books, doesn't have an allowance to it.
As new volume comes on from Susquehanna, we have to provide for an allowance there.
So that's why we are talking about potential growth impact, also, of that portfolio on the provision.
We have higher deposit balances, so our clients are carrying larger balances now on hand, which just means they pay less in fees, and just more with compensating balances.
Hey, <UNK>.
Yes, <UNK>, I suppose between some of the commentary you heard, I would be where I have been, which is in the middle of the road.
I think the economy is in a really solid 2% to 5% ---+ I mean 2% to 2.5% real GDP growth.
I see very little risk of any downside on that.
I see very little opportunity for it being substantially better than that, until we get closer to the 2016 election.
No if you get some real positive leadership intonations out of DC, then there is some upside opportunity.
But for the next 12 months, I think you can be pretty solidly focused on 2% to 2.5%, which is actually pretty good.
Because you know, that's nominal at about 4.5% or 5%, in terms of the nation as a whole.
I think the Southeast, <UNK>, can probably beat that a tad.
Because as you know, as you and I have talked about over the years, the Southeast clearly took it on the chin.
But ---+ and everything got devalued.
But it has been ---+ values have been reset.
Activity flows are moving.
Florida's back to growing 800 people a day, including Texas, 1,000 people a day.
But Atlanta's turned, finally, and the coastal markets of North Carolina have turned.
So I'd say the Southeast will be net positive to the national growth rate.
Not dramatically, but if the national is, say, 2.5%, I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see the Southeast at 3.5%.
I think it will be steady to slightly up.
The refinance, it is the last of that, I think, as of some dramatic international events.
But look, purchase activity is really picking up.
New home construction is up substantially; new home purchases is up.
We're seeing a shift toward higher percentage of purchases versus re-fis.
So I think you can think about it in terms of being steady to up ---+ not dramatic up, but steady to up.
You bet.
