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#Sure, <UNK>.
This is <UNK>.
Looking at year over year for Metals, the headwinds we're talking about, the stronger US dollar, the nickel and scrap pricing, and demand issues and some LST declines particularly in North America, we look at totaling about $7 million of the year-on-year change.
You couple that with some slight exit impact with about $3 million, some of those additional cost matters I mentioned to you earlier and you see that that pretty much offsets entirely the Orion benefit that we said was just under $5 million during the quarter.
And by the way, the Orion benefit kind of flows through more or less half SG&A half in cost of sales.
The FX is all translation, or substantially all translation.
There's a little bit of transaction but not worth commenting on.
But the FX in the other columns, $3 million of that $3.9 million is FX, or $3.5 million of that $3.9 million is FX.
The rest of it is just a lot of puts and takes.
So <UNK>, on a full-year basis, the way to look at it with respect to M&M is $30 million year-over-year impact of FX, nickel scrap prices, and volume offset by $20 million of incremental Orion benefits, which is consistent with what we've been saying.
So we set this forecast a few weeks ago, and as you know currency and nickel prices have begun to improve a bit as has oil.
Scrap prices have not moved much; in fact I think they've moved a little downward.
So I think there might be a little bit of benefit here over the past couple of weeks.
But it's I would say at this point not material.
For the quarter the revenue impact is roughly $21 million.
And the ---+ this is year on year.
And the operating income impact was just under $4 million.
Right.
In the original guidance we anticipated the revenues would come down year on year as we continue to exit contracts and other things, yes.
We certainly have seen new sites ramp up year-over-year.
So that's a bit of a favorable offset to the exits.
The only thing that I would add there is essentially if you look at our revenue guidance in the Metals business, we're pointing to revenue declines this year in the mid-teens.
Two-thirds of that is FX.
The rest of that is site exits, and you see that impact on our LSTs in the quarter.
In the second half of the year we're certainly anticipating to get the additional benefits of the full year of the Orion benefits that we're starting to see in the first quarter.
Certainly we're going to see the ramp up and the full effect of our startups this year as well.
So we expect the second half of the year to be better because there certainly this operating income for metals.
And on an earnings basis we expect the last nine months of the year to be roughly consistent with the last nine months of 2014.
Certainly one aspect of it would be the positive indicators like <UNK> mentioned earlier, changes in some of those macroeconomic factors.
So that's certainly a large part of it that has an impact.
Certainly to the extent we are continuing to deliver maybe even exceed some of the benefits that we're expecting from the initiatives under Project Orion, the estimates with respect to new sites and ramp ups or increases at existing sites and renewals, they all impact it.
So there are enough moving parts that can get us to that high end if things click in the right direction.
We had a sizable bad debt write off last year that we don't expect to be repeating.
Over what period, <UNK>.
We've taken some initiatives to fit the working capital.
So we have seen some working capital improvements.
That's in Metals.
Now you also recognize that we had some advances in Rail that were not replicated this quarter.
And you couple that with getting out of the working capital side of it, the cash was also impacted by the reduction in underspending and capital expenditure, predominately at Metals.
Not sure if that gets you ---+
No.
It's ---+ I don't know the per share amount.
It's $11 million after taxes.
$0.07, sorry.
So on a full year ---+ in revised guidance the full-year expectation is that margins will increase year on year for Metals.
That's really part of our expectation.
Mid-teens.
No.
As we've indicated, <UNK>, we expect cash flow to improve notably this year relative to last year.
And certainly going forward that is our expectation.
We remain as committed to the dividend as we have been in the past at the current level.
There's some timing issues there, but the full year expected tax rate ---+ effective tax rate is expected to be between 35% to 37% again, depending on the ins and outs it could vary in any particular quarter.
But overall for the full year the expectation is still consistent.
Yes.
So a year ago we identified some 68 or 70 contracts that were identified for what we refer to as contract triage.
We had planned to and we still believe we will be substantially complete with that by the end of the year.
There may be a couple that carry over into next year.
But by and large we're going to be complete at the end of this.
And in fact what we've seen and what I mentioned during my comments since the last call is exactly on progress, on track.
That's important to keep in mind though, Rich, that even though we finalize the outcome of many of these oftentimes the have a tail to them.
So when you agree to exit or you agree to renegotiate the effective date of that, oftentimes it is six, nine months in the future.
So you see the financial benefits of that a bit later than you finalize the outcome
That's certainly the case.
As you know we have reduced the amount of growth capital that we have allocated to M&M.
So we're being much more selective which opportunities we're pursuing.
But we absolutely have.
We're in discussions now on a number of opportunities that would be new.
That's right.
So that $0.5 billion or so that I referenced would be across five or six different contracts over the next five or so years.
Most of them likely would not begin until late 2016 or 2017 and carry through 2020.
Well that business continues to grow quite nicely.
Just a few years ago it was $25 million or $30 million, now it will be over $100 million this year in aftermarket.
And clearly that is one of the areas of focus in M&A.
We've made a few small acquisitions that help us in the aftermarket space through more product capability as opposed to geography.
So we have a dedicated team focused on aftermarket and we've been very happy with the progress they've made.
Well the integration of the Harsco business and the Brand business is complete.
They achieved their plan last year both in terms of EBITDA growth, which was 8% to 10%, as well as the debt reduction, the free cash flow.
This year they'll be down a bit in EBITDA, but they've taken out an awful lot of cost to mitigate the impact of their rather sizable exposure to the energy space.
And the cash flow this year, the expectation is for it to be even a bit better than the original acquisition plan.
We continue to look at small to midsize tuck-in acquisitions that expand the service capability of the business.
And we feel now with a $3 billion-plus global business that's really unmatched by any of their competitors that they continue to do somewhat better in the marketplace than the competition.
I'm on the Board and attend the meetings and speak often with the team there and continue to be very impressed with the leadership there and what they are focused on.
Well we certainly looked at many different businesses doing this.
And most of us on the senior team here have worked at companies that had their business systems.
So we certainly have experience with them ourselves.
I would not say we benchmarked against any given business system.
We certainly brought all of our different experiences to bear on it and we really put this together since <UNK> and Tracey McKenzie, our new head of HR, have joined within the past six months.
So we were kind of waiting to complete the executive leadership team to put the final touches on it and roll it out.
I would say it's really focused on talent development, health and safety, and execution around cost.
So continuous improvement for example is not nearly as well embedded in our culture and our processes as it needs to be.
So that's a clear area of focus.
And then also on strategic planning.
I think that we don't do that consistently well across the Company and that's something that <UNK> and I are going to lead.
So it's not benchmarked per se.
We were very thoughtful in choosing what the five components should be in our business system.
And we've assigned accountability to each of those ---+ to various executive team members and we're driving them.
I'll walk through the bridge again.
So if you look, and I'm not sure, <UNK>, I completely follow your question.
But if we look at the composition of the change, if you factor in the stronger dollar, the depressed nickel scrap, some LST mix issues and some reduction issues, that total is about $7 million year on year.
And that's in a couple of different captions on that side, which I can tell you where that is.
But there is an element in the FX and other piece, there's an element in net contract, or in existing contracts and the NI and applied products piece.
In addition as I said there's some other cost aspects that I mentioned in my remarks that also impact the year-on-year comparison including some unscheduled maintenance and some costs related to systems implementation in a couple of our sites in Latin America.
We are anticipated that those ---+ we'll be able to deal with them in the second half.
They're not timing issues per se, but we expect improvement scenarios that are going to offset that in the rest of the year, second half of the year.
Yes.
We're still ---+ our guidance for Brand is that we're going to see $4 million to $6 million of equity income for the year.
Of course we've got $4 million this quarter.
So we expect that to be reversing the following quarter.
So at the end of the year we're going to still hold tight to the guidance of $4 million to $6 million equity earnings.
In Rail I would go back to our comments even a couple of months ago about the mix shift in the Rail business.
Last year was one that benefited from a large number of part kit sales into Asia.
This year that earnings, if you would, is being offset by more equipment sales where margins are lower.
So that is driving a sizable increase in revenues and that will have an impact on margins.
So the revenue comparison you were referring to is the equipment and parts mix.
Just to be clear, that's not to say that the volume in aftermarket parts is declining, it's actually growing year over year but the mix.
There were a few very sizable aftermarket part kit shipments last year at extraordinary margins.
So the volume is still growing.
