DAN
#Thank you, <UNK>.
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our Q2 earnings call.
In addition to highlighting our very strong financial results, I also appreciate having this opportunity to briefly communicate how the Dana team continues to deliver on our commitments and progress towards our long-term targets.
In the second quarter, we delivered strong results with sales of $1.8 billion, which was a very robust 19% year-over-year increase, 11% of which was organic growth.
This is our second consecutive quarter that we have achieved double-digit year-over-year organic growth.
This strong organic growth is a result of relentless perseverance to provide innovative products and outstanding service to our customers, leading to our strong sales background.
This, coupled with our recent acquisitions and improved end market demand, continues to drive our top line revenue growth.
Our adjusted EBITDA came in at $217 million or 11.8% margin, a 30 basis point improvement over last year.
Diluted adjusted EPS increased 28% over last year's second quarter to $0.68 per share primarily due to our improved operating results.
Free cash flow was strong at $96 million, driven by higher earnings.
And finally, we have significantly increased our full year financial targets from the prior guidance, including an additional $0.5 billion in top line growth.
Coming back to the operational activities.
Last quarter, I updated you on the progress we are making relative to executing on our enterprise strategy by specifically highlighting the first 2 elements: leverage the core and customer centricity.
This quarter, I would like to provide you a brief update on the balance of the 3 elements: expanding global markets, commercializing new technology and accelerating hybridization and electrification.
Please turn your attention to Slide 5 as I would like to briefly describe how Dana is leveraging our expanded global footprint to increase our markets through customer service and outstanding performance.
The third gear of our enterprise strategy is to expand our global markets.
Needless to say, to capitalize or grow in addressable markets starts by ensuring that we are properly positioned to compete in our target markets.
By investing both organically and through acquisitions, we are optimizing our global footprint by adhering to our operating principles highlighted on the page: sharing of best practices amongst our new and existing facilities, ensuring that we are in near proximity to our customers, benefiting from improved resource utilization and capabilities in the region, and providing our customers a single-supplier solution for their global vehicle platforms.
One of the less conspicuous yet extremely important benefits that came with the Brevini acquisition is their outstanding global service and assembly center network to support off-highway customers.
These centers, although small in physical size, are low cost and extremely effective at facilitating pull-through new business sales from large and small customers while supporting our local aftermarket customer requirements.
Another example includes the acquisition of the SIFCO operations in Brazil.
These operations have enabled us to better support our customers by accommodating local content requirements and further strengthen our position as a central source for Ford's products across their off-highway, light vehicle and commercial vehicle segments.
By acquiring the USM facility in Warren, Michigan, we have expanded Dana's already substantial manufacturing footprint in the U.S. and advanced our strategy for developing, designing and manufacturing products in close proximity to our customers.
We're also expanding our footprint organically.
As we've previously shared with you, Dana announced a new high-tech axle assembly facility in Toledo, Ohio.
The facility, which will open later this year, is located less than 3 miles from Fiat Chrysler's Toyota assembly plant and is also optimally located to support automakers throughout the region.
Supporting our ongoing commitment to China market, we broke ground last month on a new manufacturing and assembly facility in Chongqing, China that will provide advanced driveline products for the Chinese light vehicle market.
Scheduled to open in late 2018, the facility enables us to bring our latest all-wheel-drive technology to Asia.
And if you recall, we recently broke ground on a state-of-the-art manufacturing facility in Europe to support new business wins in that region.
Dana's fourth operation in Hungary, the plant is strategically positioned in close proximity to our existing Gyor operations to facilitate resource and best practice sharing, enables us to deliver technologies to our European customers more efficiently and cost effectively.
Please turn to Slide 6, the fourth element of our enterprise strategy: commercializing new technology.
The public recognition we have garnered from around the world as a mobility supplier that truly collaborates with its customers to provide industry-leading technology, quality and service is further proof of the effectiveness of our strategy.
This quarter, Dana received several major awards from valued customers, and partnered with another who received industry recognition for providing class-leading technology in a very competitive market segment.
In May, we were honored by Fiat Chrysler as the 2017 Innovation Supplier of the Year for North America.
This award recognizes extraordinary commitment to innovation, quality, warranty, cost and delivery.
Specifically, Dana was acknowledged for developing a technologically advanced heat exchanger that boost engine power for the induction-air system of a future FCA vehicle.
Dana was also honored by Ford for quality, value and innovation, receiving the prestigious Ford World Excellence Award.
As you may know, our industry-leading AdvanTEK axle technology is found on the new Ford Super Duty truck and, soon, the new Ford Ranger and Ford Bronco here in the United States.
An international panel for 24 European countries recently selected the Volkswagen Crafter as the best transport van of the year for 2017, featuring Dana's proprietary driveline design, which integrates the vehicle's all-wheel-drive system with an electric locking differential.
These awards, like the numerous other awards Dana has received over the past year, are testament to the emphasis we place on technology leadership, providing our great customers with world-class quality, service and advanced solutions that will help them to succeed in the marketplace.
Let's move to the next slide to discuss the final component of our enterprise strategy, accelerating hybridization and electrification.
Dana has been designing engineering products for hybrid and electric vehicle manufacturing for nearly a decade in our drivetrain and thermal management businesses.
These capabilities serve as key enablers as hybridization and electrification accelerates across mobility segments.
An example of this I would like to share with you today is in our off-highway segment, where we have recently partnered with Sandvik, a world leader in technical solutions and equipment for mining and construction industries, on a new electric drive unit for an underground drill rig for the mining industry.
This revolutionary drivetrain technology enables the battery to recharge during a drilling cycle or during downhill tram utilizing its regenerative braking system.
This first-of-a-kind technology helps to reduce production costs while reducing environmental impacts.
The mining industry has been utilizing electrified drivetrains for many years.
This new product entry is a great example of how Dana is unique to most companies in the mobility segment in that our investment in core technology, including electrification, is transferable across all 4 of our businesses and all 3 of our end markets.
Please turn to Slide 9 for an overview on market conditions.
In North America, stable economic growth is providing a solid base for all of our businesses.
And while light truck production is still expected to be mostly flat compared with last year, we continued to see good growth in our key light truck platforms, including the Ford Super Duty.
We are increasing our expectation for Class 8 trucks and are now forecasting production to be in the range of 220,000 to 240,000 units this year.
And building on the trend that began last quarter, we are continuing to see improving market conditions for our mining and construction equipment globally.
Moving to Europe.
We expect slow economic growth this year due to continued political and economic uncertainty, but our currency expectations have improved as the euro has strengthened against the U.S. dollar.
The European off-highway markets are moderately stronger, including the mining sector, where we are seeing the expected stronger aftermarket demand as well as improving OE demand as mine operators are replacing existing equipment.
Looking at South America.
We remain positive about Brazil as the economy begins a slow recovery, including key end markets such as agriculture.
The commercial truck market has improved some year-to-date, and bus production is stabilizing.
But the market still have a ways to go before we can characterize it as a recovery.
In Argentina, the economy is expected to turn to low single-digit growth this year.
In Asia Pacific, we continue to see improving conditions in India being driven by economic reforms, and in China, where we expect growth to remain stable.
In terms of our markets, we expect low single-digit growth in light truck production across the Asia Pacific region.
And finally, as with other regions, the mining market is showing moderate growth, primarily in Australia.
Next, please turn to Slide 10 (sic) [9].
As we look at the business by segment, we continue to see healthy sales of our key light vehicle customer platforms, and inventories remain at low levels.
While the overall light truck volume in Argentina is expected to be flat, sales of the Toyota trucks remains strong.
Again this quarter, our launch readiness for the new Jeep Wrangler program is proceeding as planned across the Dana facilities involved, including the new plant in Toledo, Ohio.
In Thailand, truck production remains strong and is expected to be up 10% from last year.
In Commercial Vehicle Driveline, we continue to see strong demand for specialty and medium-duty trucks in North America as the Class 8 market shows resilience this year.
Our market share remains stable.
On a related note, you may find it interesting that 5 Dana facilities recently received the PACCAR award for exceptional quality and warranty performance.
Our off-highway business has finally seen demand beginning to improve in the mining end markets, and we are seeing favorable product mix due to healthy construction equipment demand.
We have had recent success supplying formerly Brevini product solutions to longtime Dana customers.
This cross-selling is one of the many benefits of the Brevini acquisition and one that we will accelerate as we continue to integrate the operations.
We are pleased to report that the integration is going well with our synergy plan, yielding results, as <UNK> will illustrate in just a moment.
In Power Technologies, we had another good quarter, with strong demand for light trucks driving favorable mix.
While still ahead when compared to last year, a strengthening euro is expected to benefit to both the Power Technologies and our off-highway segments.
And finally, 6 of Dana's Power Technologies manufacturing facilities were recently honored with the General Motors Quality Excellence Award.
This award recognizes only top-performing supplier manufacturing facilities that have met or exceeded a very stringent set of quality performance criteria and achieved the cross-functional score of the Dana ---+ or of the GM organization.
Now I would like to turn the presentation over to <UNK> for a review of the financials.
Thank you, Jim.
Slide 12 provides an overview of the financial results for the second quarter of 2017.
Sales of $1.8 billion were up $294 million versus the same period last year, delivering growth of 19%.
On a year-to-date basis, sales are up over $0.5 billion compared to the first half of last year.
The majority of the growth was organic as we continue to convert on our sales backlog and benefit from strong end market demand, resulting in double-digit organic growth of 11% in the second quarter.
Adjusted EBITDA was $217 million for the second quarter, a $39 million increase from the prior year.
Adjusted EBITDA was $422 million for the first half, up nearly $100 million over last year.
Margin in the second quarter was 11.8%, a 30 basis point improvement over last year, and the margin in the first half of this year was 100 basis points better than the first half of last year.
Net income was $71 million, an $18 million improvement over the same period last year.
For the first 6 months, net income was nearly $50 million better than the first half last year as higher adjusted EBITDA was partially offset by higher depreciation expense due to the increased level of capital spending, higher tax expense due to stronger earnings as well as higher acquisition and restructuring-related costs.
Diluted adjusted EPS, which excludes the impact of nonrecurring items, was $0.68 per share in the second quarter, an improvement of $0.15 per share compared with last year, and the first half was up $0.44, driven primarily by increased earnings.
Free cash flow of $96 million was $12 million lower than the same period last year, as the growth in adjusted EBITDA only partially offset increased investments to support our organic and inorganic growth.
However, free cash flow for the first half of the year is essentially in line with last year in spite of a $25 million outflow related to the USM Warren plant acquisition, which was completed in the first quarter.
Please turn with me to Slide 13 (sic) [14] for some additional details regarding the second quarter sales and profit growth.
Sales increased $294 million compared to last year's second quarter, and adjusted EBITDA was $39 million higher for a 30 basis point year-over-year improvement in margin.
The growth was driven by 3 key factors.
First, foreign currency provided the only headwind in the quarter, reducing sales by $10 million and adjusted EBITDA by $4 million due to the continued strength of the U.S. dollar against other currencies.
Second, organic growth added $164 million to sales as strong demand for key light vehicle programs, such as the Ford Super Duty, and continued improvement in the off-highway end market augmented the conversion of our backlog into sales.
The organic growth delivered an incremental $26 million of profit.
And finally, the business acquisitions made in the first quarter, Brevini and the USM Warren plant, added $140 million in sales and $17 million in adjusted EBITDA.
The profit conversion of 12% has improved 300 basis point sequentially as the cost synergies associated with the Brevini acquisition are achieved.
Slide 14 provides more details regarding our free cash flow generation in the second quarter as well as the first half compared to the same periods last year.
Higher earnings in the quarter were offset by investments to support our growth, both organic and inorganic.
The incremental adjusted EBITDA of $39 million was more than offset by a $20 million increase in working capital to support the higher sales levels, a $14 million increase in capital spending and $8 million of transaction cost primarily related to the Brevini and USM Warren plant acquisitions.
Free cash flow in the first half of the year is essentially flat with last year as the $96 million of adjusted EBITDA growth was used to fund costs associated with the business acquisitions and incremental working capital and capital spending to support the organic growth.
Please turn to Slide 15 for a look at our full year outlook.
As Jim mentioned, we're raising our full year guidance due primarily to dramatically improved demand across nearly all of our end markets and solid operational execution.
We expect sales to grow by $1.1 billion compared with last year and profit to increase by $145 million, which will expand margins by 40 basis points.
There are 4 key factors driving the improvements versus prior year.
First, we now expect currency to be a modest tailwind to sales of about $20 million, mainly due to the recent strength of the euro against the U.S. dollar.
We're still expecting a headwind of about $10 million of profit as some of the transactional impacts in a basket of currencies offset the translational benefits.
You'll find the table of our key currency expectations in the appendix.
Second, organic growth is now expected to add about $600 million this year through a combination of new business and improved demand in all 3 of our end markets.
This is an increase of about $350 million from our prior guidance and represents a 10% organic growth rate.
We expect about a 20% profit conversion on the incremental sales.
Third, inorganic growth, specifically the Brevini and USM Warren plant acquisitions, are expected to add about $450 million in sales and about $55 million in adjusted EBITDA, representing a modest improvement over our previous expectations.
And finally, in the second half of the year, we'll experience a $15 million headwind due to the gains last year in our Dana company subsidiary that was divested at the end of the year.
Please turn with me to Slide 16 (sic) [15] for a closer look at how we expect the adjusted EBITDA will convert to free cash flow.
In line with the increased sales and adjusted EBITDA raises to our guidance, we've raised our free cash flow outlook by $40 million from $60 million, which was essentially in line with last year, to $100 million or about 1.5% of sales.
We expect that approximately $100 million of the adjusted EBITDA growth will be used to support a $75 million increase in capital spending to deliver the new business backlog and a $25 million settlement to the trade obligation associated with the USM Warren plant acquisition.
Lower cash outflows associated with interest, taxes, pension and intercompany FX hedge settlements ameliorate the impact of higher cash flows for restructuring and transaction cost.
It's worth noting that in spite of a $600 million of organic sales growth, we do expect that working capital requirements will increase by an amount comparable with last year.
Please turn with me to Page 17 (sic) [16] for a look at the revised full year guidance for our key financial metrics.
As we mentioned on our last call, conditions across our end markets were strong in the first quarter, and that continued in the second quarter.
Foreign currencies have strengthened, and each of our business segments are seeing higher demand for our end markets.
While we will continue to monitor these trends, we've raised our projections from what we provided in April, as indicated in the far right-hand column of the slide.
We now expect sales to be at about $6.9 billion, a $500 million increase from our indication at the high end of the range that we affirmed in April.
Adjusted EBITDA is now expected to be over $800 million.
This represents an $80 million increase from our indication at the high end of the previous range.
This profit level will result in an 11.7% margin, which is 30 basis points higher than our prior guidance.
With capital expenditures of approximately $400 million, we anticipate free cash flow will be about $100 million.
And finally, diluted adjusted EPS is now expected to be about 20% higher than last year at $2.30 a share.
Slide 18 (sic) [17] provides a perspective of this year's improved financial performance in the context of where we've been and where we're heading.
Last year, we laid the groundwork for our future success by introducing our new enterprise strategy, Shifting Into Overdrive; completing 2 business acquisitions; securing $750 million of sales backlog; and expanding margin by 50 basis points through improved operational execution.
Earlier this year, we completed 2 additional business acquisitions and are well on our way to delivering the overall value proposition for all 4.
We're now poised to deliver over $1 billion of sales growth as we convert the first $175 million of the $750 million of backlog and as our end markets improve more and more quickly than we anticipated when we outlined our long-term financial projections.
This growth will deliver 40 basis points of margin expansion this year, and our cash flow will be slightly better than last year but remains constrained at our peak investment level of $400 million of capital spending.
As we look to next year, we expect to experience significant margin expansion and free cash flow growth based on a few key factors.
First, we will recognize the majority of the cost synergies associated with the Brevini acquisition.
Second, we had another $300 million of the $750 million of backlog that will come online at attractive margins as we leverage our existing fixed cost base.
Finally, we expect capital expenditures to return to levels more in line with our new annual depreciation and amortization expense.
Needless to say, as a result of our positioning, we're very excited about what the future holds for Dana and for our shareholders.
With that, I'd now like to turn the call back over to Dennis to take your questions.
Thank you.
Sure.
With commercial vehicle, Joe, it's important to remember that the growth that we saw there was related to the SIFCO acquisition.
Given the depressed volume levels that we're at in Brazil, those sales are coming on without any incremental profit at basically breakeven.
So that's the primary driver.
There was a bit of a headwind on currency for the commercial vehicle segment, which also primarily related to Brazil.
But those are the primary drivers for CV.
As it relates to power tech, it's a little bit of a different story in that you'll remember we had a really strong first quarter in power tech off of a pretty poor comp from last year.
A little bit of a different scenario in the second quarter.
We had a pretty strong comp Q2 of last year, and we didn't get as much profit conversion on the incremental sales as we would have liked or preferred.
The combination of product mix and a few small performance challenges put us in a position where we really didn't yield the margin in that segment that we would like.
However, we do expect more from that business, and we expect better things to come in the balance of the year, in particular from power tech.
Sure.
I'd just point to a couple of things.
You are right, the lower profit in the second half is a result of expected lower sales.
So at the midpoint of our range, we're expecting the top line to be a couple hundred million dollars lower on the ---+ primarily on the organic side; a little bit of a lift inorganically from having a full 6 months of both acquisitions.
Just in terms of the drivers of profitability, it's also important to note that we have a major vehicle launch in Jeep Wrangler in the second half of this year, well, which would put a little bit of pressure on margins.
That program has been ramping up, but most of the activity is going to take place within the second half of the year.
Relative to our call on the top line, I think there are a couple of things worth noting.
On the light vehicle segment, the Ford Super Duty program performed particularly well.
I mentioned that in the remarks earlier.
And what you will see is the normal seasonal shutdowns that we would expect in the second half of the year really across that segment.
So we think that in light vehicle, it's largely a seasonal impact.
In commercial vehicle, we still remain cautious.
And you'll note we're in at about 220,000 to 240,000 on the North American Class 8 market.
Based on what we've seen, I think we're just a little bit cautious there compared to what you've seen in some other external sources yet.
So to the extent that their call is right and ours is wrong, there could be some upside in the balance of the year on CV.
And then I think there's probably a bit of cautiousness in the off-highway space.
We saw really strong improvements in the aftermarket and in the production market in the first half of the year.
There is some seasonal downtime embedded there in that market as well, too, but we're just keeping an eye on that.
So I think hopefully, that gives a little bit of sense on how we're looking at the top line, and then the combination of the lower overall sales and the increased launch costs associated with the Wrangler are really the drivers on the margin.
Yes, that was a little bit front loaded, so you will see a modest impact associated with the timing of backlog year-over-year as well.
Sure.
So the overall performance versus prior year certainly is aided by our platform mix.
So we've highlighted the fact that if you look at the Ford Super Duty sales on a year-over-year basis ---+ or production levels, excuse me, our sales, the ---+ we've got a lot of strength there in that platform.
The overall market has held up well.
In light vehicle, I think we had expected a little bit softer, but it's done quite well.
Relative to what has changed from what we thought previously, certainly all of our markets are doing well, and we highlighted that.
But in particular, the off-highway market in the construction and agriculture segments are performing much better than expected.
You'll note if you go back in the last couple calls, we've continued to say that we expect the off-highway market to start to recover, but it's very challenging to be able to get a feel for when that's going to come back and how quickly it's going to come back.
So we're in a position now later in the year to see greater strength in that end market.
It's also worth noting that we were probably on the more pessimistic side for the North American Class 8 market at the beginning of the year.
We were closer to 200,000 units.
You've seen us bring up our guidance in the 220,000 to 240,000 range.
So really, it's strength across each of our end markets and some acute strong performance on a platform within the light vehicle segment that have helped to drive the higher confidence and the higher sales on a full year basis.
Yes.
So couple of things important to note, and it's primarily the Brevini acquisition that has a margin-dilutive effect on the off-highway segment.
You'll notice we include some materials in the appendix that provide more detail there.
But in that, there are 2 things.
One, that business is still ---+ while coming out of trough, is at historically low volume levels, and the margin profile was lower than our business.
They did not have as much success before we bought the business in flexing their fixed cost structure.
So that's one driver.
The second driver, as you note, is the synergies.
When we announced the transaction, we indicated that we'd have $30 million worth of cost synergies.
So Jim had mentioned some of the cross-selling we're doing.
That all represents upside, but the cost synergies alone were $30 million.
And we're right on track with those.
We track them very carefully on a monthly and quarterly basis, and the plans are progressing well there.
So that and the improved market demand will be the factors that help to elevate the margin profile of the Brevini business within the off-highway segment.
Yes, we're not necessarily in a point yet in the year we'd be comfortable putting out formal guidance for 2018, and we'll revisit our longer-term targets as we get closer to that point.
But as you note, the market has come back much stronger than we expected.
So when we talked about where the $1.4 billion of sales growth was expected to come from at Dana from 2016 to 2019, acquisitions played a role at about $450 million, backlog played a role at about $750 million and then market recovery was expected to be about $200 million.
And you'll note we've seen more than $200 million of market recovery.
It's really been about $400 million in this year already.
So we were a little bit surprised by how well the markets responded in particular within the off-highway space.
We thought that this downturn in commercial vehicle, particularly in North America, was going to be longer, more protracted and at a lower level.
It seems that, that's less likely to be the case the more that we see.
So really, those factors are driving the improved performance for this year, and we'll just keep keeping an eye on the next couple of years as we get closer to it.
Thanks for the question.
It's Jim.
I would say compared to a year ago, it's slightly better, slightly better because we've ---+ we made mention before we're close to a very sizable plant or near closure of a very sizable plant, and we've exhausted some inefficient, old capital, more specifically the equipment itself.
So we're slightly better utilized than we would have been a year ago.
No, negligible impact from a margin perspective, and we continue to work with our customers to remedy that, which is consistent with the vast majority of our contracts.
I guess, <UNK>, I would indicate the improvement from a top line perspective in the balance of the year is pretty consistent on a percentage basis across each of the businesses.
So we tried to highlight the fact that light vehicle market over well---+ overall is doing better than we expected, Class 8 in North America is up and, in particular, the construction and mining segments within off-highway are doing considerably better than expected.
Probably a stronger performance compared to expectations for off-highway relative to the others; but on a percentage basis, we're in the same neighborhood.
From a margin perspective, we would expect that the light vehicle business is probably going to be in the same ballpark, potentially a slight lower due to the fact that we have the launch cost in the balance for the year.
We expect CV to do pretty well, maybe a bit better.
And then off-highway, we'll see a little bit of improvement; and then power tech, pretty consistent.
So when you look throughout the business, the margin profile we would expect between the first half and the second half to be pretty consistent, except for the fact that from a seasonal basis and really from we think where demand is going to be, we think sales are going to be a bit lower than the first half of the year.
Yes, again, unfortunately, we're not in a position at this point to give you specific numbers, but we have indicated and continue to have strong conviction that the incremental margin profile on the growth will continue to improve.
So by no means do we believe that 20% is the best we can do on the incremental sales, both in backlog and in market recovery as a lot depended on where the growth come from, which segments, which parts of the business but also the fact that the major launches, we refreshed ---+ or the 2 largest platforms in the company have refreshed and are undergoing major launches within about a 12- to 18-month window.
When we look to 2018, those launches will be behind us.
We really expect to have better yield and return on sales going forward.
So we have conviction that the margin profile can continue to improve in this business as we convert our backlog and see our markets do even better.
We've been pretty clear on our capital allocation priorities.
In the near term, we are heavily focused on successfully integrating the 4 acquisitions that we've made within the last year.
So we're spending a lot of time and energy across each of the business segments and the leadership team, focused on making sure that the investments we've made there yield the returns that we've expected.
The other thing that we're heavily focused on is growing the business organically.
So you've seen us take the vast majority of our incremental profit growth and put it back into the business to make sure our cost structure is in line in the form of restructuring investments, the integration associated with the acquisition, but largely the organic growth through capital expenditures.
On the M&A front, we continue to take a look and keep our eyes out.
And I suspect Jim wants to share a comment or a thought or 2 on M&A as well.
Yes, <UNK>, thanks for the question and joining us today.
I think you should expect us just to keep our eyes open, of course.
But keeping our eyes open and executing pulls multiple levers.
Not only have we completed the acquisitions we've talked about here today, but we haven't been shy about pulling levers to move some assets out that didn't make sense such as Dana Companies, such as Nippon Reinz in Japan, et cetera, et cetera.
So we'll keep our eyes open to it.
We're ---+ obviously, we have a very strong balance sheet, but we're going to make sure it stays that way, too.
Yes, I think the recovery within off-highway mining has been seen primarily outside of the Europe ---+ or outside of the U.S. Europe has been very strong, and I think you'll remember that the majority of our production comes from Europe.
And while we service other parts of the world, I would say that I can point to Europe.
We've also seen Asia Pac and in specific China.
I think Jim mentioned Australia as well, too.
They performed better than expected on mining.
So I would say while there's been some modest improvement domestically, the markets I mentioned are the ones that have seen the more dramatic increases.
I'm sorry, <UNK>, I didn't catch that first part.
Can you try that again.
I think that's a market that we're very cautious about looking much further out.
So I think I would candidly say that we don't have a lot of strong visibility into mining beyond the next few months and balance of the year.
I think we have some thoughts of where it's headed; but beyond that, it's a little bit tough to call.
It's a little bit of program timing on the light vehicle side which is causing us to spend a little bit earlier.
And then in a couple of our other business segments, we had some pretty attractive investment opportunities, a combination of growth and margin-enhancing activities that we saw and decided to greenlight in light of the better performance on the top line and on the bottom line.
It's a minority of it.
So a smaller portion of the incremental $25 million to $30 million is associated with timing.
So, <UNK>, this is <UNK>.
We still have very strong conviction that this will be a 5% cash flow business by 2019 and still believe that a meaningful reduction in capital expenditures will be a big piece of that for us.
So again, I mentioned refreshing 2 of our largest platforms within the last couple years has certainly driven CapEx.
There is a ---+ the CapEx is a leading indicator of the backlog conversion, so the backlog growing and remaining very high has been a driver.
But we still have conviction.
I think I indicated in the comments that we would expect by next year you'll start to see CapEx fall in line with what our new level of depreciation and amortization will be once we're on the other side of this investment spike.
Yes, we're not going to be in a position to give you any specific numbers.
But as Jim indicated, we have spent a lot of time and energy with our customers demonstrating our broader range of capabilities and have been very pleased by the response that we've gotten from our customers.
The opportunity to be included in RFPs that we weren't previously, and Jim also mentioned the handful of wins that we secured in the last few months.
So we are excited about that.
It does represent incremental margin upside to the $30 million of cost synergies, but we're still not in position where we're going to discretely identify that individual element.
Yes, a little bit of seasonality.
But if you step back just from the second quarter and look at the first half, the conversion on the sales growth organically in the first half has been more like 25%, which actually means second half conversion will be lower than the first half to be able to get to the 20%.
And the seasonal impact of lower sales has a bit of an impact on that.
So you have less growth.
And then the other element is the JL Wrangler launch that we have within the second half of this year.
So those are really the drivers as to why the conversion will be slightly lower in the second half versus first half.
But we have confidence that we'll be able to get to about the 20% mark by the end of the year.
Yes, it makes up the majority of the gap there that you see, <UNK>.
So we've built a brand-new large facility.
We are ramping up the fixed costs within the facility during the period.
Now that's coming up to the balance of the year, so we're adding costs.
We'll have some inefficiencies with the launch.
So we really don't start to recognize the new sales on the launch.
It's really towards the end of the year or the ---+ or early next year.
So that's really the primary driver, and it makes up most of the gap that you see there.
Yes, you have a bit of product mix in the quarter when you do the year-over-year comp that was part of the factor.
And on the performance side, there are just some of the challenges that we see at running at such a high level of demand on a sustained basis.
So stepping on our toe in a couple of places.
But we see opportunity to improve that and still get an attractive yield or improved margins with power tech as we move forward.
So we ---+ as we mentioned, we expect more, and then we know that business will do a bit better in the balance of the year.
Okay.
Thank you, <UNK> (sic) [<UNK>].
This is Jim again.
Just to close real quick.
I feel very good about our practice of making reasonable commitments and living to those commitments.
Why.
Well, because the Dana team continues to do an excellent job.
The focus on the customer, the focus on technology, the focus on the cross-company teamwork, all important ingredients.
When you kind of zoom back for a minute, growing at the rates that we're growing at while, at the same time, completing and integrating 4 acquisitions, of course, is no small feat.
So I really couldn't be more proud of the Dana team for everything they've recently done and will continue to do in the future.
Thank you for your attendance in the call today.
Looking forward to seeing you or talking to you very soon.
