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Depi Preske 20 ans, mwen te gen étudié Et évaluation pwodiksyon, sou sijè tankou variés kòm leve kanpe sou nivo lanmè, siklòn domaj, tab la pou premye minis Anglè lig Et a gwoup koup di mond. Graf ki pi ba montre ke pèfòmans les prévisions pou de pi gwo pati, konsèvatè ak travayè, ki ès ki te sèl pati ki te gen yon chans reyalistik de Former yon gouvènman an. L' a montre an total kantite chèz sa te pwedi a manqué rezilta a pa, menm jan, konpare li a yon senp base ireyèl ki baze sou Mas la, 2015 konpozisyon de palman an. Ba yo RED endike yon pèfòmans pi mal pase debaz la nayif, Et bars NWA ki montre yon amelyorasyon, Et non, genyen pa barres nwa sou graf sa a. (Ou ka wè detay sou les prévisions Et la méthodologie evalyasyon nan pòs sa a.)
eng
For almost 20 years I’ve studied and evaluated predictions, on subjects as varied as global sea level rise, hurricane damage, the English Premier League table and the quadrennial World Cup. The graph below shows the performance of the forecasts for the two biggest parties, the Tories and Labour, which were the only parties which had a realistic chance of forming a government. The x-axis shows the total number of seats that the forecast missed the outcome by, as compared to a simple baseline expectation based on the March, 2015 composition of Parliament. The RED bars indicate a performance worse than the naive baseline, and BLACK bars indicate an improvement, and no, there are no black bars on this graph. (You can see the details of the forecasts and the evaluation methodology at this post.)