hat
Nou kapab grandi evalyasyon la pou enkli pwodiksyon pou demokrat Liberal la, UKIP Et Scottish pati nasyonal. (Note: Sèlman 8 de orijinal la 13 prévisions te gen LD, UKIP Et SNP; yon graf rezilta sa, osi byen ke yonn pou jis konsèvativ, Travayè Et demokrat Liberal la ka jwenn Isit.) Ak SNP revolisyon an se nan Scotland, nou espere ke sa ta amelyore les prévisions, depi base naïf a te gen sèlman 6 SNP manm nan palman an. (UKIP transforme en mathématique komen nan ekzèsis sa a.) Menm jan an tou, pandan l ajoute nan lòt twa pati yo sèlman ogmante kat pwediktè pi wo pase la base naïf. Li se yon valè de ki pa lòt bagay ke pi vye ke prévision metòd tout yo te a yon pi bon prediksyon pou ki kantite chèz SNP.
eng
We can expand the evaluation to include predictions for the Liberal Democrats, UKIP and Scottish National Party. (Note: Only 8 of the original 13 forecasts included LD, UKIP and SNP; a graph of these results, as well as one for just the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats can be found here.) With the SNP revolution occurring in Scotland, we would expect that this would improve the forecasts, since the naive baseline had only 6 SNP members in Parliament. (UKIP turns out to be mathematically irrelevant in this exercise.) Even so, adding in the other three parties only raises four forecasters above the naive baseline. It is worth noting that the worst performing forecast method overall had the very best prediction for the number of SNP seats.