Arsene Wenger knows only too well the importance of finishing top of a Champions League group, which is why it remains so baffling that Arsenal keep qualifying in second position. The Gunners have been eliminated in the last 16 of the competition for the last four seasons after being handed tough draws against Barcelona, AC Milan, Bayern Munich and Bayern again. On three of those occasions Arsenal had finished second in their group. And the bad news for Wenger is that his side are more likely to draw their conquerors of the last two seasons, German giants Bayern, than any other team in the last 16 of this year's Champions League. Arsene Wenger is facing another tough draw in the Champions League last 16 on Monday . Bayern Munich are the team the Gunners have most chance of being drawn against . Sportsmail has brought out the calculators  (with more than a little help from MisterChip) ahead of the draw, which takes place on Monday at UEFA's HQ in Nyon, to work out the probability of each club meeting the other in the next round. The percentage chance of each draw can be seen in the table below. A full explanation of how the draw works can be found below but the upshot will make depressing reading for Wenger and Arsenal fans in particular, with the Gunners' chances of drawing Bayern being 25 per cent. Still, it's not like Wenger hasn't been warned over the last few years. One crumb of comfort comes from the fact that Real Madrid are their joint least likely opponents in the next round. The chance of Arsenal drawing the European champions are just 14 per cent, the same as their chances of facing Atletico Madrid and Porto. Chelsea topped their group so are most likely to face Bayer Leverkusen in the next round . Meanwhile, Jose Mourinho will be delighted to learn that the consequence of Chelsea comfortably topping their group means their most probable opponents are Bayer Leverkusen, the Bundesliga club who remain a shadow of the side which reached the final of this competition in 2002. Indeed, that pairing is the most likely of all the possible match-ups in the last 16, on 29 per cent. Manchester City are also likely to face German opposition, with a 25 per cent chance of drawing Borussia Dortmund. The least likely draws, apart from those which are impossible due to UEFA rules, are: Real Madrid vs Juventus or Shakhtar Donetsk: Barcelona vs Juventus, Shakhtar or Basle; Atletico Madrid vs Shakhtar or Basle; and Porto vs Juventus or Basle. And if you don't believe us, Arsene, just ask Carol Vorderman. * Figures have been rounded to the nearest percentage point. How the Champions League last 16 draw works . Group winners will be drawn against runners-up, with the exception that teams from the same association as well as the same Champions League group cannot face each other. This means Arsenal cannot play Chelsea, Manchester City or Borussia Dortmund . Chelsea cannot play the other English clubs or Schalke, while City will avoid their domestic rivals and Bayern Munich. Seeded group winners will be away in the last-16 first legs on 17/18 and 25/26 February and at home in the return matches on 10/11 and 17/18 March. The draw will take place on Monday at 11am GMT. GROUP WINNERS . Atletico Madrid . Real Madrid . Monaco . Borussia Dortmund . Bayern Munich . Barcelona . Chelsea . Porto . GROUP RUNNERS-UP . Juventus . Basle . Bayer Leverkusen . Arsenal . Manchester City . Paris Saint-Germain . Schalke . Shakhtar Donetsk .
Sportsmail calculated chances of each Champions League last 16 draw .
Arsenal's most likely opponents are German giants Bayern Munich .
Chelsea vs Bayer Leverkusen is most probable tie of all in the last 16 .
Manchester City are most likely to face Borussia Dortmund .
Draw takes place at UEFA HQ on Monday and rules are below .
Click here to follow the UEFA Champions League draw LIVE .
Real Madrid, Barcelona and Bayern Munich are among the seeded clubs .
Arsene Wenger knows only too well the importance of finishing top of a Champions League group, which is why it remains so baffling that Arsenal keep qualifying in second position. The Gunners have been eliminated in the last 16 of the competition for the last four seasons after being handed tough draws against Barcelona, AC Milan, Bayern Munich and Bayern again. On three of those occasions Arsenal had finished second in their group. And the bad news for Wenger is that his side are more likely to draw their conquerors of the last two seasons, German giants Bayern, than any other team in the last 16 of this year's Champions League. Arsene Wenger is facing another tough draw in the Champions League last 16 on Monday . Bayern Munich are the team the Gunners have most chance of being drawn against . Sportsmail has brought out the calculators  (with more than a little help from MisterChip) ahead of the draw, which takes place on Monday at UEFA's HQ in Nyon, to work out the probability of each club meeting the other in the next round. The percentage chance of each draw can be seen in the table below. A full explanation of how the draw works can be found below but the upshot will make depressing reading for Wenger and Arsenal fans in particular, with the Gunners' chances of drawing Bayern being 25 per cent. Still, it's not like Wenger hasn't been warned over the last few years. One crumb of comfort comes from the fact that Real Madrid are their joint least likely opponents in the next round. The chance of Arsenal drawing the European champions are just 14 per cent, the same as their chances of facing Atletico Madrid and Porto. Chelsea topped their group so are most likely to face Bayer Leverkusen in the next round . Meanwhile, Jose Mourinho will be delighted to learn that the consequence of Chelsea comfortably topping their group means their most probable opponents are Bayer Leverkusen, the Bundesliga club who remain a shadow of the side which reached the final of this competition in 2002. Indeed, that pairing is the most likely of all the possible match-ups in the last 16, on 29 per cent. Manchester City are also likely to face German opposition, with a 25 per cent chance of drawing Borussia Dortmund. The least likely draws, apart from those which are impossible due to UEFA rules, are: Real Madrid vs Juventus or Shakhtar Donetsk: Barcelona vs Juventus, Shakhtar or Basle; Atletico Madrid vs Shakhtar or Basle; and Porto vs Juventus or Basle. And if you don't believe us, Arsene, just ask Carol Vorderman. * Figures have been rounded to the nearest percentage point. How the Champions League last 16 draw works . Group winners will be drawn against runners-up, with the exception that teams from the same association as well as the same Champions League group cannot face each other. This means Arsenal cannot play Chelsea, Manchester City or Borussia Dortmund . Chelsea cannot play the other English clubs or Schalke, while City will avoid their domestic rivals and Bayern Munich. Seeded group winners will be away in the last-16 first legs on 17/18 and 25/26 February and at home in the return matches on 10/11 and 17/18 March. The draw will take place on Monday at 11am GMT. GROUP WINNERS . Atletico Madrid . Real Madrid . Monaco . Borussia Dortmund . Bayern Munich . Barcelona . Chelsea . Porto . GROUP RUNNERS-UP . Juventus . Basle . Bayer Leverkusen . Arsenal . Manchester City . Paris Saint-Germain . Schalke . Shakhtar Donetsk .
the last two seasons, German giants Bayern, than tough draw in the Champions League last 16 on the draw, which takes place on Monday at UEFA's group so are most likely to face Bayer Leverkusen their most probable opponents are Bayer the most likely of all the possible match-ups in the last 16, on 29 per cent. Manchester City are impossible due to UEFA rules, are: Real Madrid vs . Borussia Dortmund . Bayern Munich . Barcelona .