Will BRICS countries be the leading innovation countries 20 years from now? I wonder about the question given in the title. 

What could be arguments against this statement? 


Considering China and Russia: Both countries have an authoritarian political system. I claim - and please correct me if you think otherwise - that an authoritarian system hinders innovation. I would assume that universities are not free in their choice of topics to perform research on. Why is this bad for innovation? Not sure here, just a feeling. I would also say that innovation requires creative thinking and that an authoritarian system often comes with fear of stating one's own opinion and that this somehow doesn't yield the mindset necessary for innovation. Well, you can tell I am not very certain with this argument. Can you help me with it? 
Considering India and Brazil and South Africa: Wealth is very unequally distributed in these countries. And I feel like this is also hindering innovation. A large portion of their population will not have free access to education, already reducing the number of people that technological innovation can come from. 


I know that this is a question which doesn't have the  one ultimate answer. So should I be in the wrong forum for it, I apologize for it. Otherwise, I am excited and happy to hear your comments!
What makes you assume that there is a link between the BRIC(S) countries annd innovation, more than any other country in the world, to make them leaders?

The growth reason in each BRICS country is different. The similarity is partially because of the ratio between labor and capital, economies that invest in industrialization, capital, and get higher growth until they reach their new industrialized potential

There are large differences: Russia's economy is based on energy - oil and gas. China has been subsidizing its industry with a low exchanges rate, a subsidy that is ending now, Brazil has also plenty of energy resources, but alot of unattended poverty and corruption, India faces a lot of structural government issues etc.

An authoritarian doesn't have to lead to lower innovation, Japan in the 19th century became western country in a generation, with Japanese sent to study in Europe.
It is less probable for an authoritarian regime to support innovation, for the simplest reason - it depends on a single authority to understand it, rather than a public agenda oriented regime

What you you should look for as an indicator for innovation is R&amp;D expenditure out of the GDP, patent protection and any "doing business" score you find reliable