Predicted recessions that never happened It seems generally accepted that recessions are hard to forecast, in both onset and intensity, but the bias seems to be toward rosy outlooks:


  The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession by a wide margin until the year is almost over. Forecasts during non-recession years are revised slowly; in recession years, the pace of revision picks up but not sufficiently to avoid large forecast errors. [...] Strong booms are also missed, providing suggestive evidence for Nordhaus’ (1987) view that behavioral factors—the reluctance to absorb either good or bad news—play a role in the evolution of forecasts.


Of course, this may be put in simpler terms as forecasting having a bias towards things staying on the current course.

I'm curious if there are historically significant examples where the consensus forecasting (or at least that of some major institutions) predicted a [bad] recession that failed to materialize.
One example is this UK Government analysis:


  "Britain’s economy would be tipped into a year-long recession, with at least 500,000 jobs lost and GDP around 3.6% lower, following a vote to leave the EU, new Treasury analysis launched today by the Prime Minister and Chancellor shows…Speaking at B&amp;Q in Eastleigh, Hampshire, the Prime Minister and Chancellor set out the Treasury’s analysis of the impact on the nation’s economy over the immediate period of two years following a vote to leave. This analysis shows that such a decision would cause an immediate and profound economic shock across the country"


But growth has been consistently positive in the almost three-year period since the vote.



I'm not sure this a very good example, because there are clear political incentives surrounding this forecast, which might mean it was less than sincere.