How often does Earth cross the galaxy regions with higher supernovae activity? According to Summa Technologiae, a book by a Polish author Stanisław Lem that based his science fiction novels on scientific research of the era, the Earth crossed in the moment of forming of life the arms of the Galaxy, with high supernovae activity, which triggered life creation. Afterwards, it moved to regions with low supernovae activity, which enabled the preservation of existing life.

I'd like to test the validity of this claim against current research. How often does the Earth cross regions with higher concentrations of stars (and therefore, much greater chance of gamma burst wipe)? Additionally, how many times the probability of nearby supernova explosion is higher in that regions?
The paper "Frequency of nearby supernovae and climatic and biological catastrophes" by Clark, McCrea, and Stephenson published in Nature estimates (at 50% probability) that the Solar System passes within 10 parsecs of a supernova every 100 million years. This supernova would be part of a 20-parsec strip in which an estimated 50 supernovae occur.

They do speculate that a connection between the Solar System passing through these regions and climatic and biological events (such as ice ages) is possible.

You can read the paper yourself for more details. It's only two pages and you can purchase 48 hour access for $5 from Readcube.

Source:


"Frequency of nearby supernovae and climatic and biological catastrophes" - Clark, McCrea, and Stephenson