Is there any evidence for the classification of topological 4-manifolds, aside from Freedman's 1982 paper "The topology of four-dimensional manifolds", Journal of Differential Geometry 17(3) 357–453? The argument there is extraordinarily complicated and a simpler proof would be desirable.


Is there evidence from any other source that would suggest that topological 4-manifolds are so much simpler than smooth 4-manifolds, or does it all hinge on Freedman's proof that Casson handles are homeomorphic to standard handles?


My question is motivated from a number of points of view:


1. The classification of topological 4-manifolds is now 30 years old and an easier version of the proof has not emerged. In contrast, Donaldson's invariants have been superseded by more easily computed invariants. This is a very unsatisfactory state of affairs for such a far-reaching topological result, particularly as it is so regularly used in proof-by-contradiction arguments against results in smooth 4-manifold theory.
2. As the Bing topologists familiar with these arguments retire, the hopes of reproducing the details of the proof are fading, and with it, the insight that such a spectacular proof affords. I am delighted to see that the MPIM, Bonn is running a [special semester](http://web.me.com/teichner/Math/4-Manifolds.html) on this topic next year. Hopefully this will introduce these techniques to a new generation of mathematicians (and save them from having to reinvent them!)
3. It may be possible to refine the proof to gain more control over the resulting infinite towers - and perhaps get Hoelder maps rather than homeomorphisms, for example. This would require either a better exposition of the fundamental result or some new independent insight, which was the basis of my question.



Independent evidence for the classification of topological 4-manifolds?
After 7 months, over 800 MO views and (as suggested) emails to experts, the answer to the question is "No": other than Freedman's 1982 paper, there is no evidence what-so-ever that topological 4-manifolds are so much simpler (i.e. determined up to homeomorphism by their intersection form) than smooth 4-manifolds. Subsequent research (capped gropes etc) hinge on the key step in the paper - the removal of "gaps" in the "design". While this is a highly unsatisfactory state of affairs for the reasons mentioned in the original question, it is what it is.


