conversation: User (fastfwd): "Let's say my portfolio is 100% index ETFs. It will outperform 75% stocks 25% bonds over 10+ years. Usual wisdom is that bonds are what you draw from in retirement when the market is down.\nSure maybe if you retire on the very year where there is a crash you could be happy to have some bonds. But seems like if you are 100% stocks you will recover from the crash faster. I have not found any calculator for this but it seems like 100% stocks is just better at all times if you never draw more than maybe 4-5% yearly from your savings during retirement."
  Self: "&gt;  if you never draw more than maybe 4-5% yearly from your savings during retirement.\n\nIf you're 100% in stocks during retirement and your stocks crash by 50%, you may be forced to take out 8-10% of your portfolio that year, because you have expenses that you just have to pay. Your stocks will then need to grow by roughly 20% just to recover that loss.\n\nIf you take out only 4% of your portfolio whatever the size of the portfolio, then of course your portfolio will live forever, but it would mean that you could only withdraw $400 if your portfolio ever went down to a value of $10k... "
  User (fastfwd): "Sure that 8-10% would be hard. But I wonder if it's still not better in most situation since you then have 100% stocks ready to catch the next bull market.\n\nIn any case I am not retiring with a hard 4% rule. I will take out less if the market is really bad; maybe even retire 1 year later."
  RadiolarianChert (RadiolarianChert): "Voerendaalse's scenario is exactly the kind of thing that many bond advocates use but it's based on gloom and doom.\n\nBy the time you're retired you should be able to deal with the variations in the stock market.\n\nYou should already have your financial house in order.\n\nOK, so what about major unplanned expenses?\n\nYou use insurance to protect from major expenses due to low probability risks.\n\nLet the insurance companies buy the low rate of return stuff. They'll spread the risk across their pool of clients.\n\nDon't take your money and lock in low returns."
  