Flu forecasted to be historically low as COVID-19 cases surge
Earlier this fall there was talk of a potential “twindemic” — where the coronavirus pandemic collides with the flu season. With our hospitals and healthcare system already stressed beyond their capacity, it’s not surprising health officials have been concerned with the possibility of treating severe flu cases on top of those admitted with COVID-19.

The good news: Kinsa data is predicting an abnormally mild flu season. I recently spoke with Donald McNeil, Jr. from The New York Times about Kinsa’s flu forecast and shared with him what I’m sharing here: Here we are in December with overall illness levels hovering below 1% — just last year, in comparison, illness levels were peaking at nearly 6% of the US population sick.

Overall, contagious illness is much lower this year than usual, likely due to a combination of factors:

Minimal air travel from the southern hemisphere this summer may have reduced the import of the virus to the US

Social distancing, school and workplace closures, and fewer indoor events limit the virus ability to jump between individuals

Increased mask wearing reduced the level of viral transfer between individuals

By way of example, these maps show the overall level of illness across the US on Dec. 8, 2019 and on Dec. 8, 2020.

This in no way means that we’re out of the woods and that caution isn’t still absolutely necessary. Please continue to wear a mask, practice social distancing and do what you can to avoid group events or activities. While a light flu season is a welcome piece of good news, the reality is that our system is already at a breaking point. Our families and communities depend on our adherence to these practices.

If you’re wondering what your local flu risk is, I’ve been checking Kinsa’s local health weather often for my risk score. You can see yours here.

How Kinsa calculates illness levels: Kinsa aggregates infectious illness levels in real time through our broad network of smart thermometers and the connected mobile triage app. We use this anonymous information to estimate the percentage of the population afflicted with febrile illness (most commonly cold & flu) throughout the US. External academics have validated in peer-reviewed research Kinsa’s localized illness detection and forecasting, including the flu 12–20 weeks in advance, and up to a 3-week leading indicator for COVID-19.
['Inder Singh']
['Coronavirus', 'Health Technology', 'Public Health', 'Covid 19', 'Pandemic']