Long-Term Human Trajectory Prediction using 3D Dynamic Scene Graphs
Nicolas Gorlo, Lukas Schmid, Luca Carlone
We present a novel approach for long-term human trajectory prediction, which is essential for long-horizon robot planning in human-populated environments. State-of-the-art human trajectory prediction methods are limited by their focus on collision avoidance and short-term planning, and their inability to model complex interactions of humans with the environment. In contrast, our approach overcomes these limitations by predicting sequences of human interactions with the environment and using this information to guide trajectory predictions over a horizon of up to 60s. We leverage Large Language Models (LLMs) to predict interactions with the environment by conditioning the LLM prediction on rich contextual information about the scene. This information is given as a 3D Dynamic Scene Graph that encodes the geometry, semantics, and traversability of the environment into a hierarchical representation. We then ground these interaction sequences into multi-modal spatio-temporal distributions over human positions using a probabilistic approach based on continuous-time Markov Chains. To evaluate our approach, we introduce a new semi-synthetic dataset of long-term human trajectories in complex indoor environments, which also includes annotations of human-object interactions. We show in thorough experimental evaluations that our approach achieves a 54% lower average negative log-likelihood (NLL) and a 26.5% lower Best-of-20 displacement error compared to the best non-privileged baselines for a time horizon of 60s.