The only good thing I can think of is that most of the model guidance suggest a track that should stay a little south of the islands that got crushed by Irma. The bad thing is that most of the models are calling for Maria to strengthen explosively as it approaches the islands - some suggesting a 20 - 25 mb drop in pressure in the last 12 hours before moving through the islands. It appears Dominica is pretty much in the crosshairs of the spot where Maria pushes through the Lesser Antilles (supported by the NHC forecast - 71% chance of hurricane force winds). I was on a cruise a while back that called in Dominica and got to see some of the island and I don't think most of the houses would survive a strong tropical storm, let alone a cat 4 hurricane. I am really worried of a major catastrophe if they were to take a direct hit from this.
Beyond that the models start to fan out but generally indicate St. Croix and eastern Puerto Rico as the most likely areas to get hit then maybe the Turks and Caicos (which did get hit by Irma). 0Z runs should be interesting.
6Z GFS has Maria over St Croix, then Puerto Rico on Wednesday, cat 3/4. Then keeps it east of theTurks and caicos and sends it out to sea.
0z Euro clips just the southwest corner of PR with the eyewall, then over the eastern part of the Dominican republic, then over the Turks and Caicos, after which it heads out to sea, but not before knocking what's left of Jose into the outer banks.
Bad news for the islands, better news for the continental US, as it is unlikely to approach Florida and points north also have a low chance for impacts from Maria. Jose is a different matter, however.
Jose must be setting some kind of longevity record by now, and certainly if it is still around next week. Here I am, newly excited by the dropping of the "bonus Storm" hitting the west coast of Florida around the 28th or so because I am going to the mountains on the 29th only to be faced with good ole Jose being kicked ashore about 250 mile SE of where I will be and certain to come on up to the mountains for a visit too. Having experienced Ivan passing through the mountains to my west one year and seeing first hand how that goes, I can say I will be most disappointed to have Jose in the neighbor hood the first few days of October...where is that high latitude trough that is needed to push Jose away?
12z GFS appears to show Jose moving out a little sooner and a significant shift westward for Maria, getting really close to the outer banks area.
Was a west shift but not significant..especially on days 4-5... lets try to keep it 5 days out at most.. cause we ALL KNOW the models will jump around after 5 days unless the GFS and Euro are almost exactly alike
And speaking of her very low central pressure, 'Maria's current pressure of 924 mb is the lowest for an Atlantic hurricane this late in the calendar year since Wilma (2005)' - Phil Klotzbach
0z GFS and euro take Maria over Puerto Rico and the Euro takes it close, but not over the Turks and Caicos, before turning it out to sea. Closest approach to the US is on Wednesday the 27th, but both models keep it well east of the US for now.
Models are generally in good agreement out to 5 days or so, so it is very likely this one stays away from the continental US. We'll keep monitoring it for that, though, particularly for the trends (Mid Atlantic/NE would have highest risk, Florida is extremely unlikely) With the strong trof approaching the east coast next week, it's fairly safe bet this won't directly affect the continental US. Large Surf/swells will continue to be a problem though, Jose is already causing that.
Puerto Rico/VI impacts would be Tomorrow and Thursday. The 6z GFS takes it over St Croix Wednesday early morning, then eastern Puerto Rico later that day.
I guess this is the year of cat5 storms. I feel for PR. As compact as Maria is, a wobble could be the difference between a scrape and devastation.
Is that because the max winds weren't cat 4-5 as often? I'd think serious damage (I'm thinking risk to structural integrity) would be limited to areas of sustained Cat 3 or higher.
The smallest radii (fastest winds) given in the Forecast/Advisory are for minimal Cat 1. I'd really like to see an additional line item for where Cat 3 winds start. (We're now designating H versus M on the track plots...)
We bailed for Austin when Rita was predicted to make a direct hit on Houston. Got caught in the 9+ hour traffic jam. By the time we got to Austin, Rita, having continued to slow coming across the Gulf (and the approaching front having made up the time) ended up much further east. At my house, we *maybe* had Cat 1 sustained. Probably only as gusts. As soon as I saw this in the Forecast/Advisory on arrival in Austin, we took off back for Houston.
PR. Getting different views on destruction possibilities in the media. Got it hurricane cat 5 bad, small eye and wind field good. Lots of rain bad, mud slides in the mountains bad. Storm surge, a little of an after thought on weather channel. Highest population from Dorado along the northern coast to Ceiba. Other big population zones Caguas, elevated middle of island. Ponce south, shallow water, wondering about storm serge, it is close to directly south of San Juan. Finally Mayaguez, on the west coast slightly elevated, but directly opposit of land fall. I know in Florida the serge effected both coasts, what about an island will the storm serge be as bad on the back side for mayaguez and Cabo Rojo?
Beyond Puerto rico it looks like it may be getting very close to the Turks and Caicos, but not directly over. Beyond that out to sea seems by far the most likely (no mainland US hit or Bermuda) but we'll have to watch to see if that holds.
For future track the biggest questions are how close it gets to the Turks and Caicos and how much will Bermuda be affected. Bermuda isn't likely to take a direct hit, but it may be close enough for some winds from Maria, especially with the windfield expanding and the massive eye (after being so tiny BEFORE Puerto Rico)
Closest approach to Turks/Caicos will be tomorrow afternoon. Hurricane warnings are up Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata and the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas. Closest Approach to the US/Bermuda is on Wednesday, but appears to likely be safely away from either then.
From here all the models, save the CMC, take Maria out to sea. With Wednesday being the key day for any potential surprises based on that. However, with so much going against it it appears out to sea remains the most likely scenario.
Maria is passing just to the east of the Turks and Caicos today, close enough for them to feel many of the affects. Beyond that North Carolina and Bermuda will want to keep an eye on it, but it appears neither will see direct impacts (other than heavy surf, minor coastal flooding, and rip currents)
I sure am not going to write this storm off until I see what happens Wednesday,going to be interesting.
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