In a room sit three great men, a king, a priest, and a rich man with his gold. Between them stands a sellsword, a little man of common birth and no great mind. Each of the great ones bids him slay the other two. 'Do it,' says the king, 'for I am your lawful ruler.' 'Do it,' says the priest, 'for I command you in the names of the gods.' 'Do it,' says the rich man, 'and all this gold shall be yours.' So tell me- who lives and who dies?
Game Theory, it turns out, has an answer. Consider what some call the repeated game of daily life. In each period, every member of society is randomly matched with someone else whereupon they play a Prisoner’s Dilemma. In each period, each player has two choices, either to be violent and slay the other, or to be peaceful, and cooperate. It is individually rational to be violent in any given period, but mutual cooperation is better for both than mutual violence.
In analyses of two player versions of this game, we see a wide variety of strategies can maintain mutual cooperation. For example grim-trigger or famously tit-for-tat. The common take away, people play nice in any given round for fear of being punished in the future.
In the large N versions, the problem becomes more difficult because you interact with somebody new each period. Thus in order to maintain cooperation you need some kind of social order. If somebody defects and decides to slay, we need to rely on somebody else to carry out the punishment.
Thus the answer to Varys' riddle depends on which equilibrium we are in, or perhaps if we are out of equilibrium, which sub-game of the current equilibrium.
Calvert (1992) finds an equilibrium of this game where players maintain equilibrium by choosing one member (a king) and using the king to collect information on who has defected, and thus giving the king power to decide who should be killed. Like in Hobbes’ Leviathan, we give the king power because he maintains order by punishing anyone who defects, thereby keeping everybody in line. Assuming this equilibrium is in play, the sell sword will listen to the king or risk being punished by whoever he encounters next.
Milgrom, North and Weingast (1990), find that merchants actually can maintain order without a government or king. By studying the “law merchants” of the Champagne trade fairs of medieval Europe (if you ever visit Paris, take a train to the town of Provins, today it’s basically a medieval times ren faire for French tourists, but you can still find the animatronic law merchants). Here, contracts were enforced by judges who kept a board that recorded the names of anyone who breaks a contract. In equilibrium, all merchants had to defect against anyone who ever violated a contract, or have their name recoded on the board as well (making sure the equilibrium is sub-game perfect, the judges themselves also would be punished if they were dishonest, ensuring sub-game perfection in their play as well). So long as this equilibrium of contract enforcement is in place, the merchant can credibly offer future money to the sell sword in exchange for his life.
Kandori (1993) gives conditions on when we can sustain cooperation based on some sense of moral authority alone that has a Kantian flavor. Consider a moral norm based on a grim trigger strategy where I cooperate in every period, unless I am ever wronged. However, if I am ever wronged, I will bring violence to everyone I encounter from here on out. Even though I may never see the person who wronged me ever again, if I start bringing violence to others, that should trigger a chain reaction where they start bringing violence to others, which brings down the entire system. Thus, people cooperate, to avoid setting off this chain reaction that brings down the system as a whole. A priest could appeal to the sellsword’s rational morality, that every act of violence has a chance of bringing down civilization as a whole.
Of course, all of these above institutions only work when we are on the equilibrium path. But when we are in an era when Winter is Coming, then we very well may fall out of equilibrium. In such conditions, Acemoglu and Robinson (2001) model the process where Latin American countries transition between cooperative behavior and a state of mutual violence, what Hobbes’ referred to as the “nasty, brutish and short” state of nature. In such a world, all that is left is violence, and whoever is best at violence, the sellsword, prevails.
I have to be honest. I didn't really know what to post today. The news and the country seem so tense lately. Too much has been said. And so I was just looking, not for answers, but for a little clarity, a little simplicity as I looked through the stories that our older adult buds have been sharing. The stories never ever disappoint me. This one was it. This one was what I need personally. A celebration of life at its most basic, at its most simple, and yet miraculous little form.
One of my beautiful days was when I was born in Edinburgh, Scotland – Great Britain. My mother was young and pretty and lived in the United States, in Brooklyn, New York. My father was born in Shuttleland, Scotland – Great Britain. He had an uncle, his mother’s brother, named Charlie who took my parents to live with him and Aunt Sarah on Orchard Street, Edinburgh, Scotland, GB.
When mother gave birth at the Royal Hospital, Edinburgh, Scotland, of me, I was almost 4 lbs, with lots of dark hair, and she also tld me I was born at noon. Uncle Charlie brought my mother to the hospital (by foot) and she said the doctor who delivered me had red hair. The nurses thought my Uncle was my father. My father as I am told, was looking for a job at the mills (paper mills) but mother’s story said my father was drinking at the “pub.” In Great Britain, the bars were called “the pub.”
My mother, after delivering was put on the “ward”. The wards were rooms in the hospital which held many iron beds. At the end of each bed were iron baskets which were made beds to hold the little babies in. So mothers could breast feed the little ones. The babies, which were under weight had cotton around them to keep them warm.
The depression was starting in the United States. My parents (mother pregnant with me) from LI, NY, US came to Great Britain by boat in 1952. My Uncle Charlie was a brother in the order of the healing Brothers of Marta’s, and also served as a volunteer in World War I of the Shelters in Edinburgh, Scotland, GB. This was my first day of living outside my mother’s warm womb. I am blessed.
Martin Luther King Day became one of my favorite holidays a few years ago during a Best Day session when my buds around the table - many of whom happened to be African American at that particular session - spontaneously opened up about their experiences of watching him speak in person and on live TV. The past and the present connected for me within that simple hour. History felt for the first time relevant. Hope and dreams for the country felt possible. MLK the icon became suddenly very real, his message of love and unity became timeless. And every time this holiday comes around, I am reminded that this country is worth dreaming for.
It all started several years ago when I received a phone call from my mother inviting me to come to hear a speaker in Atlantic City.
Having just moved into another home a few months earlier and bearing the responsibilities of a wife and working mom, I refused. She, on the other hand, insisted that I would miss listening to him tell America a few things. She said “He has something on the ball”.
Out of respect for her, I reluctantly got my pregnant self together, grabbed my seven year old son and boarded a train to meet her. After his speech, we went and shook his hand, at the Atlantic City High School, in 1958.
Little did Mom know that a national holiday would be celebrated in honor of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.
Hope everyone is having a good year... so far! From emoji, to selfie, to doorbuster, to blockbuster, Joe takes us on a stroll through new words in the 21st century. Wonder what new words 2017 will bring?! Does anyone have any early predictions ;)?
For the 21st Century, a number of new words have been added in the dictionary. For instance, “emoji.” I have never heard of what an emoji is, but I got to know about it a year ago. It’s so wonderful how the various adjectives / feelings can be expressed graphically.
Now a days, people have started using abbreviations during chating like “LOL.” The other craze people are having these days is of SELFIE. People are taking selfies which is a new trend. The idea of taking a picture of myself has never got into me.
I watch an investigation channel on TV, I know they have writers who write the show. One of the expressions I have heard of is “Nobody needs electricity as you can light up the room with your smile.”
An other expression which I am tired of hearing is the word “Blockbuster.” During World War II, the people used a type of grenade and explosive to demolish a block of the city, so the word came into existence.
Now people have started using the wood “Doorbuster” that is the greatly reduced price and people are getting and busting the door to get the stuff and now the word came up.
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Coming to a selection of stores and bridal shops throughout Las Vegas, we are happy to announce that the fall edition of Spectacular Bride Magazine is now available. Providing couples with everything they need to plan their perfect wedding, our fall issue features the best venues and local wedding services, 10 steps to a magnificent reception, as well as all-new bridal fashion trends, real Las Vegas weddings and much more! You can also pick up a copy at the August 19 & 20 Bridal Spectacular “Veils & Vino” Wedding Expo.
For the fall cover, we showcase a glamorous image captured by Kandylane Photography. Taken inside of the exquisite Chapel at the Hilton Lake Las Vegas, these photos highlight a stunning ceremony setting by Flora Couture with our gorgeous bride, Jaffet Haro. Wearing a dazzling Maggie Sottero gown from Brilliant Bridal coupled with a sophisticated updo and glamorous makeup created by Hair’z Melinda, Jaffet’s look is ideal for the fashionably chic bride.
To order your complementary copy of the fall issue, please click here or pick up a copy in a store near you or at the bridal show. In the meantime, we hope you enjoy these incredible photos! You can also see a digital copy by clicking on the cover image on our home page above.
A special thank you to all of the Las Vegas wedding professionals who helped create these beautiful photos:
Owner of Kandylane Photography, Kira emphases on bringing out the true beauty in every situation. She loves to capture moments, not just poses. She loves to create lifelong memories, not just prints on the wall. Most importantly, she loves capturing true love between two individuals — and enjoys every moment of it!
For more wedding planning ideas and inspiration, please visit bridalspectacular.com. And, be sure to save-the-date to attend our Autumn Bridal Show August 19 and 20, 2016 at Cashman Center where you can meet many of these talented wedding professionals in person!
Taking advantage of all of the features within AdWords can help to improve your PPC strategy. Using the Bid Simulator, an advanced feature, provides you with insight into your bids. Here you can examine estimated number of clicks more closely to make informed decisions about what changes to make. Learn more about what features you can use to examine your bidding strategy. Read the article here
As we begin a new year, it’s good to begin thinking about what trends are beginning to appear in content marketing. Utilizing the data from key research reports, this article breaks down some of the future trends of content marketing. One example of the research states that content marketing ROI is not being successfully tracked, which is something that is critical in gauging your content strategy. Read the article here
Tracking another source of your conversions can help you to better identify what steps users are taking to reach you. Adding call tracking software to help track users can add beneficial data to your digital marketing campaigns. Read to learn more about why you should add call tracking software. Read the article here
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E&P will be major topic at this year’s North American Summit for all three participants, the US, Mexico, and Canada, but they only have one day to do it. Discussions about moving trade forward was on the agenda as President Obama met with his counterparts Stephen Harper of Canada and Pena Nieto of Mexico.
One very big issue will be Mexico’s decision to open up foreign investment as well as E&P in PEMEX, the country’s state-run oil company. Both American jobs and American businesses look to be more involved in the burgeoning Mexican oil and gas business as it expands.
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First day of classes. Mine was Copper Etched Journal with Josie C. and her able associate KAY!!! They made the etching process easier than I had been expecting – others had told me it was hard to do! Josie shared her stamps (great collection – some her design) with us and away we went.
Helpful info – did you know that tin snips can cut thru 24 ga copper? So much easier (and quicker) than using a saw. Josie says Tim Holtz’s new scissors also cut thru 24 ga.
It takes a while for the etchant to work so while that was going on I (and probably a few other students) learned that the word signature has a second meaning. Signature also means a folded section of pages in a book. The book we were making has three signatures. Josie made it all simple which I really appreciated.
What is it about a “technique” class where you get to do a project that is so rewarding? And Josie believes in student success so she had done so much prep work for us – we didn’t have to cut anything – copper, mat board, papers, linen thread. She pre drilled and punched all the holes in the covers. And she brought her able associate KAY. Thank you Josie and Kay.
The etching will be great to try with the jewelry process and making a book was fun so I might do that again!
The picture did not do the project justice. Its a tiny book – so cute! Plus I learned to etch! And here are a couple other examples and then some fellow students photos (mostly hands – I am recording hands at work this year).
I took a bead class yesterday – great teacher, great project and great instructions! Here is a photo of it:
I love Jenni Bowlin! I have that yellow rose leftover from her calendar project kit from january. The pendant looked best photoed against that. Now for a close up of the wonderful pendant with a Swarovski cut crystal (3omm!) in the middle (see how its multicut? I chose the golden shadow I think so its got a nice vintage tone to it. Now I just have to make it into a necklace.
And you see the little bit of glass behind that? Carole told me where she got these great cupcake/dessert holders. She puts her lovely pincushions in them. I set them up for easter (and will now have to clean the one of glitter – but thats a whole other subject).
And what did I put in them for Easter? I found the moss rock eggs that Teresa McFayden had shown – those are too funny! Plus I can leave them up all through the rest of the spring, probably summer and into fall. I so love green and moss so this is a great combination. In the taller one I put the easter eggs I made following Amy’s instructions. I sent off some of them to my sister with earrings inside for her and the girls. I also sent one to my Bellitoria exchange partner. (I haven’t heard from her – getting worried that the package has not arrived!). I used a lot of that great vintage ribbon from Carole that is gradated from gold to pale yellow or purple to pale violet. And for most of them I used a vintage piece of jewelry to decorate, but mine have flowers on them…still look good! (Oh and that cupcake display stand is now COVERED in glitter!)
Don’t you just love those displays? Carole is so creative – makes it always an experience to visit her ribbon shop!
So I have been collecting interesting items in the way of jewelry and using them on different objects or in new jewelry. Ok, I admit it – I seem to be addicted to rhinestones at the moment. You can’t tell by what I wear of late but I seem to be drawn to shiny things! Or is it because I live in Las Vegas?
So one of the blogs that motivates me is Seeking Everyday Beauty & Velvet Strawberries. If you look at the blog entry titled Oh and one more you will see Andrea’s find for storing her pieces/parts. (And a great collection of pieces/parts.)
I hunted high and low at two local Michaels but never saw this – probably was looking in the wrong area. And I was in and out of several Tuesday Mornings looking for something like it and had no luck. I did buy a substitute at Michaels but it was not deep enough. So I just thought to put the idea in the back of my mind and hope someday to find a similar item. Now while at Tuesdays I did buy what I thought was a drawer divider of sorts for the kitchen tool drawer. Why I thought that was what it was is beyond me – I found it in the craft aisle. (Isn’t it great they have a CRAFT aisle? I have tassels collected from there that I am hoarding, lol. They make great package tops for little kids – fun to play with!)
I unwraped/unsealed the drawer divider and was checking it for fit only to realize it has a COVER. And said COVER slides off! Well, by chance I bought the correct item to store those jewelry bits so I can see them but have them protected. Here is a shot of it with the lid partially open that I took to show a friend how the cover worked (look at where the bubblewrap is NOT and you will see a shadow of the cover):
I think it will work! And the wood color matches the wood in my workroom. Sometimes you accidently discover what you are looking for all along.
Speaking of jewelry – Martha did pearl dying yesterday on her show. Martha did it with Rit Dyes. What I loved were the gradations of the pearls but Martha made me think that the powder dyes of Rits that I ignore should not be. Her staff is so creative. And then she stitched them on Silk ribbon and tyed it around her neck. Look at the instructions or the video to the project – Pearls by Martha. I bet this will work with real pearls too? I have a lot of freshwater ones…
I do occasionally come up with some good organizational techniques. (I just need to get them all at the same time and with time to implement them.)
These were coca cola trays that I spray painted a neutral silver. Then I used the watchman’s storage cases to separate the crystals. And how do they stay there? Well I helped them – I glued a magnet on the back of each of the containers (oh – BEFORE putting in the crystals – those lids don’t always hold!).
So then controlling and separating my stones from my beads is another problem. Here is how I store those. Of note – I usually have the drawers closed but I wanted you to see they really are full of stones.
My sorting approach on these – by color. I just could not come up with another method to sort by. So drawers have sophisticated titles as – Pink, blue, green, black – oh I have two called pearls…so I do have different colors in those drawers. The sign turned sideways? Well its a mix of two colors, lol.
This is a CD holder that looks like the old file card systems in libraries. Fairly shallow drawers – maybe 4 inches?
Another kit from French General! Not sure they provided everything I needed in this kit – I borrowed headpins from another kit. But I got this kit so long ago that they might have been outside the kit (although I have never seen that before with a French General kit).
One thing I am learning WYSIWYG – not true here. FG seems to cut back on the supplies in the kit – it does not quite look like/contain all the QUANTITIES that are in the photo and instructions in the book.
Lessons learned – LOVE how they make the simple loops for attaching! I am going to use this technique again. Just goes to prove to myself that I need to MAKE THINGS from the books I have to really LEARN. Just reading doesn’t always get the message across.
They don’t sell this one anymore – probably because the blue drops are vintage (and come with the loop already done – YEA!!! Very FAST project.) But if you look at the Blood Red Necklace on their website its similar and they just buy regular drilled drops now and make the necklace that way.
So anyway – on this one everything was in the kit – including TONS of the blue drops. I am going to have to make some earrings out of some of the drops to match this necklace.
I have managed to buy some crystals (not swarvorskis though) that come prewired – just need to find the chain so I can make some more of these. Simple and very effective!
Coral Charm Bracelet – Another French General kit (oh their website is http://www.Frenchgeneral.com). This is also from their book French General Jewelry . That book is good purchase. By the way they are selling the storyboards used in the book on the website also. Great story boards, its just I have so many of the “pieces” used on the boards (and they are expensive) so I can pass on those!
Tools used for the project while in work (the glue is off to the side and not pictured – I usually use E6000 or something similar but here I used Weldbond – curious how it will hold up!):
The card you can barely see is from Urbanmaille – love that company and their kits. Also that postcard with a picture of all the size rings is worth so much to me. Makes my life so much easier. Now in chainmaille the gauge of the wire makes a big deal so just knowing the ring size isn’t enough, but for this pattern and following the instructions in the French General book it worked. And here it is virtually finished – I could not get a good photo in the evening so hopefully I will replace this soon!