-LRB- CNN -RRB- -- Since the moment Barack Obama took office , he has made a concerted effort to speak directly to the Muslim world . Election posters hang on the exterior of many buildings in Tripoli , Lebanon , last week . Even his inauguration address sent a new and different message from the United States : `` To the Muslim world , we seek a new way forward , based on mutual interest and mutual respect , '' he said on January 20 , standing in front of a changed nation . `` To those leaders around the globe who seek to sow conflict or blame their society 's ills on the West , know that your people will judge you on what you can build , not what you destroy . '' Next month , Obama will deliver a long-awaited speech to the Muslim world from Cairo , Egypt . He will speak at a critical time for Lebanon , days before an election that could bring powerful Shia militia group Hezbollah to power . This possibility could shake the foundation of Obama 's attempts to bring stability and peace to the Middle East . With one of the most powerful armies in the Middle East , Hezbollah is poised to lead Lebanon 's government with the help of Lebanese Christian opposition leader , Gen. Michel Aoun . Aoun signed a memo of understanding with Hezbollah in February 2006 and joined the March 8 bloc , led by Hezbollah . That could give the bloc the numbers it needs to control parliament after the June 7 elections . There have been sporadic incidents of violence ahead of the vote : Billboards have been defaced and just last week , a Hezbollah-aligned political office was burned to the ground . While these acts of violence are small by Lebanese standards , a friend who lives near the burned office told me it was a `` terrifying reminder of last May . '' That is when Hezbollah militants , in a blatant show of force , seized control of the streets of Beirut , marking the worst violence to hit Lebanon since the end of its civil war in 1991 . Many saw it as an embarrassment to Saad Hariri 's ruling March 14 bloc , which had to grant major political concessions to Hezbollah to restore order to Beirut . Hezbollah 's leader has painted May 7 , 2008 , as a `` glorious day that prevented civil war , '' but journalists like myself remember the day slightly differently : pinned down behind a building by raging gunfire . At the time , I could not believe that Hezbollah gunmen were about to occupy half of the Lebanese capital . They did so until the government gave in ; then they withdrew back to Beirut 's southern suburbs , allowing the city 's wealthy neighborhoods to return to normal for the summer . Regardless , it was a show of force that people in Lebanon have not forgotten . The lead-up to next month 's vote has seen the same , typical -- and at times stereotypical -- Beirut antics . Hezbollah has accused Hariri 's political bloc of bringing Lebanese expatriates into the country in droves to try to swing the vote in its favor . Anyone who drives out to Beirut 's airport can see these expats arriving from countries like Brazil , Canada and the United States . Hariri swept to power in the wake of the 2005 assassination of his father , former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri . Many Lebanese blamed Syria , which had dominated Lebanon politically and militarily since the civil war , for the killing . The assassination sparked widespread protests that led to the election of the younger Hariri 's anti-Syrian bloc in parliament and the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon . Damascus has denied any role in Hariri 's killing , but a U.N. investigation has found indications of Syrian involvement . Now , it appears the tide is turning once again in Lebanon , this time in Hezbollah 's favor . Three years ago , Hezbollah -- which is supported by both Syria and Iran -- fought a war against the Israeli military , which failed to weaken the militia . Since that perceived victory over Israel , Hezbollah has been considered by its supporters to be the `` defender of Lebanon . '' So what happens on June 8 when the world wakes up to a Lebanon that sees Hezbollah aligned with Aoun as the majority and Hariri 's March 14 bloc as the opposition party ? When Hamas won the elections in Gaza in January 2006 , former U.S. President Jimmy Carter called the elections `` free and fair . '' But that made no difference as Israel tightened its grip , and the two rival Palestinian factions , Hamas and Fatah , killed each other in the streets of Gaza . Is the situation any different now for Lebanon , or is it perhaps even worse ? Lebanon 's political landscape is shifting months after a similar shift in Israel . Voters in the Jewish state overwhelmingly supported conservative parties over more moderate groups , bringing into power Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu earlier this year . Netanyahu is viewed in the Arab world as more hawkish than his predecessor , Ehud Olmert , who ordered the war against Hezbollah in 2006 . With an estimated 30,000 rockets pointed at Israel from southern Lebanon -- all under the control of Hezbollah -- how can Netanyahu sell the idea to the people of northern Israel that they are safe from a country ruled by Hezbollah-aligned politicians ? The situation means that the Arab world will be listening even more closely to Obama 's June 4 address in Cairo to hear whether the U.S. president will champion democracy -- even if it means an inevitable standoff between Israel , a historically staunch ally , and Lebanon , as it struggles to find an identity both within itself and in the outside world .