To determine the optimal methotrexate dose in individual patients and to explore whether this optimal dose and the level of disease activity at that dose could be predicted.
Data from CAMERA II trial comparing MTX and MTX with 10 mg of prednisone both in a tight control treatment strategy in early RA was used. For each patient a curve for disease activity over time was fitted and the MTX dose after which further step-up did not result in relevant improvement in disease activity anymore was determined the 'lowest optimally effective MTX dose (LOED)'. The association of demographic and clinical characteristics at baseline with this LOED and with the level of disease activity reached at LOED was studied.
In 204 (100 MTX and 104 MTX with prednisone) out of 236 patients LOED could be defined. 10 mg/wk was the most prevalent LOED in patients treated with MTX and prednisone and 10 mg/wk, 20 mg/wk and 30 mg/wk in the MTX strategy. Although the specific LOED could not reliably be predicted, higher baseline disease activity, height and lower weight were associated with higher LOEDs (i.e at least 15 mg/wk). A score was presented to decide on a starting dose of 10 mg/wk or (at least) 15 mg/wk. The level of disease activity at LOED could not be reliably predicted.
A starting dose of 10 mg/wk might be a good choice for most patients and is frequently already the optimal dose. However, a subgroup of patient can be determined who would require higher MTX doses.