Clinical outcomes of undifferentiated arthritis (UA) are diverse, and only 40% of patients with UA develop rheumatoid arthritis (RA) after 3 years. Discovering predictive markers at disease onset for further intervention is critical. Therefore, our objective was to analyze the clinical outcomes of UA and ascertain the predictors for RA development.
We performed a prospective, multi-center study from January 2013 to October 2016 among Chinese patients diagnosed with UA in 22 tertiary-care hospitals. Clinical and serological parameters were obtained at recruitment. Follow-up was undertaken in all patients every 12 weeks for 2 years. Predictive factors of disease progression were identified using multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression.
A total of 234 patients were recruited in this study, and 17 (7.3%) patients failed to follow up during the study. Among the 217 patients who completed the study, 83 (38.2%) patients went into remission. UA patients who developed RA had a higher rheumatoid factor (RF)-positivity (42.9% vs. 16.8%, χ = 8.228, P = 0.008), anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (CCP) antibody-positivity (66.7% vs. 10.7%, χ = 43.897, P < 0.001), and double-positivity rate of RF and anti-CCP antibody (38.1% vs. 4.1%, χ = 32.131, P < 0.001) than those who did not. Anti-CCP antibody but not RF was an independent predictor for RA development (hazard ratio 18.017, 95% confidence interval: 5.803-55.938; P < 0.001).
As an independent predictor of RA, anti-CCP antibody should be tested at disease onset in all patients with UA.