To derive a multivariable diagnostic model for symptomatic midfoot osteoarthritis (OA).
Information on potential risk factors and clinical manifestations of symptomatic midfoot OA was collected using a health survey and standardised clinical examination of a population-based sample of 274 adults aged ≥50 years with midfoot pain. Following univariable analysis, random intercept multi-level logistic regression modelling that accounted for clustered data was used to identify the presence of midfoot OA independently scored on plain radiographs (dorso-plantar and lateral views), and defined as a score of ≥2 for osteophytes or joint space narrowing in at least one of four joints (first and second cuneometatarsal, navicular-first cuneiform and talonavicular joints). Model performance was summarised using the calibration slope and area under the curve (AUC). Internal validation and sensitivity analyses explored model over-fitting and certain assumptions.
Compared to persons with midfoot pain only, symptomatic midfoot OA was associated with measures of static foot posture and range-of-motion at subtalar and ankle joints. Arch Index was the only retained clinical variable in a model containing age, gender and body mass index. The final model was poorly calibrated (calibration slope, 0.64, 95% CI: 0.39, 0.89) and discrimination was fair-to-poor (AUC, 0.64, 95% CI: 0.58, 0.70). Final model sensitivity and specificity were 29.9% (95% CI: 22.7, 38.0) and 87.5% (95% CI: 82.9, 91.3), respectively. Bootstrapping revealed the model to be over-optimistic and performance was not improved using continuous predictors.
Brief clinical assessments provided only marginal information for identifying the presence of radiographic midfoot OA among community-dwelling persons with midfoot pain.