To assess patient-reported variables as predictors of change in disease activity and disability in early rheumatoid arthritis (RA).
Cases were recruited to the Yorkshire Early Arthritis Register (YEAR) between 1997 and 2009 (n = 1415). Predictors of the 28-joint Disease Activity Score (DAS28) and the Health Assessment Questionnaire-Disability Index (HAQ-DI) at baseline and change over 12 months were identified using multilevel models. Baseline predictors were sex, age, symptom duration, autoantibody status, pain and fatigue visual analog scales (VAS), duration of early morning stiffness (EMS), DAS28, and HAQ-DI.
Rates of change were slower in women than men: DAS28 fell by 0.19 and 0.17 units/month, and HAQ-DI by 0.028 and 0.023 units/month in men and women, respectively. Baseline pain and EMS had small effects on rates of change, whereas fatigue VAS was only associated with DAS28 and HAQ-DI at baseline. In patients recruited up to 2002, DAS28 reduced more quickly in those with greater pain at baseline (by 0.01 units/mo of DAS28 per cm pain VAS, p = 0.024); in patients recruited after 2002, the effect for pain was stronger (by 0.01 units/mo, p = 0.087). DAS28 reduction was greater with longer EMS. In both cohorts, fall in HAQ-DI (p = 0.006) was greater in patients with longer EMS duration, but pain and fatigue were not significant predictors of change in HAQ-DI.
Patient-reported fatigue, pain, and stiffness at baseline are of limited value for the prediction of RA change in disease activity (DAS28) and activity limitation (HAQ-DI).