To assess the association between meniscal volume, its change over time and the development of knee OA after 30 months in overweight/obese women.
Data from the PRevention of knee Osteoarthritis in Overweight Females study were used. This cohort included 407 women with a BMI ≥ 27 kg/m2, free of OA-related symptoms. The primary outcome measure was incident OA after 30 months, defined by one out of the following criteria: medial or lateral joint space narrowing (JSN)  ≥ 1.0 mm, incident radiographic OA [Kellgren and Lawrence (K&L)  ≥ 2], or incident clinical OA. The secondary outcomes were either of these items separately. Menisci at both baseline and follow-up were automatically segmented to obtain meniscal volume and delta-volumes. Generalized estimating equations were used to evaluate associations between the volume measures and the outcomes.
Medial and lateral baseline and delta-volumes were not significantly associated to the primary outcome. Lateral meniscal baseline volume was significantly associated to lateral JSN [odds ratio (OR) = 0.87; 95% CI: 0.75, 0.99], while other measures were not. Medial and lateral baseline volume were positively associated to K&L incidence (OR = 1.32 and 1.22; 95% CI: 1.15, 1.50 and 1.03, 1.45, respectively), while medial and lateral delta-volume were negatively associated to K&L incidence (OR = 0.998 and 0.997; 95% CI: 0.997, 1.000 and 0.996, 0.999, respectively). None of the meniscal measures were significantly associated to incident clinical OA.
Larger baseline meniscal volume and the decrease of meniscal volume over time were associated to the development of structural OA after 30 months in overweight and obese women.