There is a need for prediction of knee osteoarthritis (KOA) in general practice to motivate subjects for preventive therapies and optimize preventive trials.
To develop a prediction model, with questionnaire and physical examination variables, for incident frequent knee pain (FKP) and symptomatic KOA after 2.5 and/or 6.5 years among overweight and obese middle-aged women.
Models were developed in the Prevention of Knee Osteoarthritis in Overweight Females study (age 50 to 60 years, body mass index [BMI] ≥ 27 kg/m
Multivariable analysis by backward stepwise deletion was performed for questionnaire and physical examination variables. The prediction model was externally validated in Rotterdam Study (RS)-III. Area under the curves (AUCs) of receiver operating characteristic were calculated.
32% of 237 women (mean age 55.7 ± 3.2 years; mean BMI, 31.9 ± 3.8 kg/m
In this study, easy-obtainable variables modestly improved the prediction of FKP and symptomatic KOA above age and BMI. To improve the identification of high-risk individuals, development of valid tests for other known risk factors, like meniscal damage, that are applicable in primary care, are urgently needed.