Evaluate the diagnostic performance of knee physical exam findings and participant-reported symptoms for MRI-detected effusion-synovitis (ES) among knees with early and late-stage osteoarthritis (OA).
The Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) is a longitudinal study of participants with or at risk for knee OA. Two samples with MRI readings were available: 344 knees with early OA (312 participants) and 216 with late-stage OA (186 participants). Trained examiners performed bulge sign (BS) and patellar tap (PT) exams, and participants reported on knee swelling and pain with leg straightening. Effusion-synovitis on 3T non-contrast MRI was scored using the MRI Osteoarthritis Knee Score (MOAKS). Diagnostic performance of physical exam findings and symptoms was estimated with bootstrapped confidence intervals.
For the early OA sample, the highest sensitivity for medium/large effusion-synovitis was achieved with a positive finding for any of the physical exam maneuvers and/or participant-reported symptoms (81.0 [95% CI: 70.0, 91.3]). Both knee symptoms in combination had a prevalence of 11.7% and yielded the highest estimated positive predictive value (PPV) (50.0 [95% CI: 34.2, 66.7]) and likelihood ratio positive (LR+) (5.2 [95% CI: 2.9, 9.7]). In late-stage OA knees, exam findings and symptoms provided minimal information beyond the prevalence.
Patient report of both symptoms, or at least one positive exam finding and at least one symptom, could be used to identify knees at increased risk of effusion-synovitis in knees with early stage OA, either for screening purposes in clinical evaluation, or for study sample enrichment with an inflammatory phenotype; diagnostic performance was not sufficiently high for clinical diagnostic purposes.