Investigating the association between baseline cartilage volume measurements (and initial 24th month volume loss) with medial compartment Joint-Space-Loss (JSL) progression (>0.7 mm) during 24-48th months of study.
Case and control cohorts (Biomarkers Consortium subset from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI)) were defined as participants with (n=297) and without (n=303) medial JSL progression (during 24-48th months). Cartilage volume measurements (baseline and 24th month loss) were obtained at five knee plates (medial-tibial, lateral-tibial, medial-femoral, lateral-femoral and patellar), and standardized values were analysed. Multivariate logistic regression was used with adjustment for known confounders. Artificial-Neural-Network analysis was conducted by Multi-Layer-Perceptrons (MLPs) including baseline determinants, and baseline (1) and interval changes (2) in cartilage volumes.
Larger baseline lateral-femoral cartilage volume was predictive of medial JSL (OR: 1.29 (1.01-1.64)). Greater initial 24th month lateral-femoral cartilage volume-loss (OR: 0.48 (0.27-0.84)) had protective effect on medial JSL during 24-48th months of study. Baseline and interval changes in lateral-femoral cartilage volume, were the most important estimators for medial JSL progression (importance values: 0.191(0.177-0.204), 0.218(0.207-0.228)) in the ANN analyses.
• Baseline lateral femoral cartilage volume is directly associated with medial JSL progression. • 24-month lateral femoral cartilage loss is inversely associated with medial JSL progression. • Lateral femoral cartilage volume is most important in association with medial JSL progression.
Cartilage volumes (both at baseline and their change during the initial 24 months) in the lateral femoral plate were predictive of medial JSL progression.