A man has 48 socks in his drawer: 12 blue socks, 16 black socks, and 20 red socks. The lights are out and he is completely in the dark at night. How many socks must he take out of the drawer to make 100 percent certain that he has taken at least 2 black socks out of the drawer?

Here is how you must answer the question: First, list relevant information. Second, make a plan for how to answer the question by thinking out loud, paying attention to common sense and logical coherence. Third, analyze the plan for problems, and refine the plan if necessary. Fourth, using the refined plan, answer the question by thinking out loud, paying attention to common sense and logical coherence.