Climate Change Policies for the XXIst Century: M echanisms, Predictions and Recommendations
Recent experimental works demonstrated that the Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) hypothesis, embodied in a series of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global climate models, is erroneous. These works prove that atmospheric carbon dioxide contributes only very moderately to the observed warming, and that there is no climatic catastrophe in the making, independent on whether or not carbon dioxide emissions will be reduced. In view of these developments, we discuss climate predictions for the XXIst century. Based on the solar activity tendencies, a new Little Ice Age is predicted by the middle of this century, with significantly lower global temperatures. We also show that IPCC climate models can't produce any information regarding future climate, due to essential physical phenomena lacking in those, and that the current budget deficit in many EU countries is mainly caused by the policies promoting renewable energies and other AGW+motivated measures. In absence of any predictable adverse climate consequences of carbon dioxide emissions, and with no predictable shortage of fossil fuels, we argue for recalling of all policies aimed at reducing carbon dioxide emissions and usage of expensive renewable energy sources. The concepts of carbon credits, green energy and green fuels should be abandoned in favor of productive, economically viable and morally acceptable solutions. HE terrestrial climate system is quite complex. A complete theory needs to account for the phenomena taking place on the Sun, which provides the energy in the form of electromagnetic radiation that puts the terrestrial climate engine in motion, and the atmosphere and the oceans, that redistribute the energy, with biosphere and humanity affecting the amount of solar energy circulating in the climate system. The energy is eventually re+emitted into outer space in the form of infrared (IR) radiation, maintaining the climate system in a dynamic equilibrium. Surface temperature T is one of the most important climatic variables, which affects the distribution and the very existence of all of the diverse life forms on land, including human civilization, dependent for its existence on availability of potable water and agricultural productivity. The existence of amenable surface temperatures depends on the greenhouse effect, caused by gases present in the atmosphere. The most important greenhouse gas is water vapor (H2O), followed by carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), ozone and halocarbons. These gases absorb IR radiation that would otherwise immediately escape into space, reemitting part of it back towards the surface. Therefore, they provide some additional thermal insulation for the surface, resulting in the average surface temperature that is ca. 32 K (32 oC) higher than it would be otherwise. Some 30 years ago, when the growth in atmospheric concentration of CO2, which we shall denote as (CO2), caused by increased human use of fossil fuels, has coincided with the growth in average global temperature (global warming), concerns were risen that the observed warming may be caused by CO2, due to increased greenhouse effect, with possible adverse climatic consequences. These concerns led to the creation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an entity under the UN, to evaluate risks of climate change caused by