Tipping point dynamics: a universal formula
Sudden and unexpected disruptive phenomena like current French "gilets jaunes" movement, Arab springs, Trump and Brexit victories, put at stake the feasibility of their eventual forecasting. Here we claim that such unpredictable social events are indeed predictable, provided one can build the opinion landscape to identify the underlying dynamics. We derive a universal mathematical formula for the temporal evolution of opinion distribution among a heterogeneous population. It allows identifying the various tipping points and attractors triggering opinion flows thus unveiling the hidden mechanisms behind sudden upheavals like minority spreading and majority collapse. With our formula, the final outcome of an opinion dynamics can be predicted with substantial flexibility in the parameters evaluations, if the proper identification of relevant attractors are made. This opens the path to a large spectrum of real applications including voting outcomes, market shares and societal trends. This positioning provides a new ground to predict opinion dynamics outcomes and envision competing strategies to win a public debate.