On the choice of ingredients for a theory of the Ice Ages
"With five parameters one can fit an elephant". This provocative statement expresses the fact that when a theory has several adjustable parameters, an agreement with empirical data can be of modest value. What about a theory which contains unobserved objects? This is the subject of this paper. It is motivated by a model of the Ice Ages of the Pleistocene, which postulates a hot planet in an extremely eccentric orbit. This object has many consequences. It is rather well defined by the requirements, that it must not be in conflict with laws of nature, nor with empirical data. It must have sufficient mass to produce a rapid geographic pole shift on Earth after a close flyby at the end of the Pleistocene, and also be small enough to disintegrate at this occasion and to evaporate during the Holocene. These requirements leave hardly any adaptable parameters. In this situation, the agreement with further data, in particular the reverse Dansgaard-Oeschger events of the Holocene, represents a significant support of this theory.