Reply to 'Inuence of cosmic ray variability on the monsoon rainfall and temperature': a false-positive in the eld of solar|terrestrial research
AbstractA litany of research has been published claiming strong solar inuences onthe Earth’s weather and climate. Much of this work includes documentederrors and false-positives, yet is still frequently used to substantiate argu-ments of global warming denial. This manuscript reports on a recent studyby Badruddin & Aslam (2014), hereafter BA14, which claimed a highly sig-ni cant (p= 1:4 10 5 ) relationship between extremes in the intensity of theIndian monsoon and the cosmic ray ux. They further speculated that the re-lationship they observed may apply across the entire tropical and sub-tropicalbelt, and be of global importance. However, their statistical analysis|andconsequently their conclusions|were wrong. Speci cally, their error resultedfrom an assumption that their data’s underlying distribution was Gaussian.But, as demonstrated in this work, their data closely follow an ergodic chaoticdistribution biased towards extreme values. From a probability density func-tion, calculated using a Monte Carlo sampling approach, I estimate the truesigni cance of the BA14 samples to be p= 0:91.