16514075
An Analysis of First-Order Logics of Probability
We consider two approaches to giving semantics to first order logics of probability. The first approach puts a probability on the domain, and is appropriate for giving semantics to formulas involving statistical information such as "The probability that a (typical) bird flies is greater than. 9." The second approach puts a probability on possible worlds, and is appropriate for giving semantics to formulas describing degrees of belief, such as "The probability that Tweety (a particular bird) flies is greater than.9." We show that the two approaches can be easily combined, allowing us to reason in a straightforward way about statistical information and degrees of belief. We then consider axiornatizing these logics. In general, it can be shown that no complete axiomatization is possible. We provide axiom systems that are sound and complete in cases where a complete axiomatization is possible, showing that they do allow us capture a great deal of interesting reasoning about probability.
215949262
Knowledge, probability, and adversaries
What should it mean for an agent to know or believe an assertion is true with probability 9.99? Different papers [2, 6, 15] give different answers, choosing to use quite different probability space...
14995360
A model-theoretic analysis of knowledge
A general semantic model of knowledge is introduced, to allow reasoning about statements such as «He knows that I know whether or not she knows whether or not it is raining». This approach more naturally models a state of knowledge than previous proposals (including Kripke structures). Using this notion of model, a model theory for knowledge is developed. This theory enables one to interpret the notion of a «finite amount of information»
47316226
Equations Between Regular Terms and an Application to Process Logic
Regular terms with the Kleene operations $ \cup $, ; and $ * $ can be thought of as operators on languages, generating other languages. An equation $\tau _1 = \tau _2 $ between two such terms is said to be satisfiable just in case languages exist which make this equation true. We show that the satisfiability problem even for $ * $-free regular terms is undecidable. Similar techniques are used to show that a very natural extension of the Process Logic of Harel, Kozen and Parikh is undecidable.
152014
Causality, Responsibility, and Blame: A Structural-Model Approach
This talk provides an overview of work that I have done with Hana Chockler, Orna Kupferman, and Judea Pearl (H. Chockler and J. Y. Halpern, 2004), (H. Chockler, et al., 2003), (J. Y. Halpern and J. Pearl, 2005), on defining notions such as causality, explanation, responsibility, and blame. I first review the Halpern-Pearl definition of causality, what it means that A is a cause of B, and show how it handles well some standard problems of causality. This definition of causality (like most in the literature) views causality as an all-or-nothing concept. Either A is a cause of B or it is not. I show how it can be extended to take into account the degree of responsibility of A for B. For example, if someone wins an election 11-0, each person is less responsible for his victory than if he had won 6-5. Finally, I show how this notion of degree of responsibility can be used to provide insight into model checking notions such as coverage
15233558
A new look at fault tolerant network routing
Consider a communication network G in which a limited number of link and/or node faults F might occur. A routing &rgr; for the network (a fixed path between each pair of nodes) must be chosen without any knowledge of which components might become faulty. Choosing a good routing corresponds to bounding the diameter of the surviving route graph R(G,&rgr;)/F, where two nonfaulty nodes are joined by an edge if there are no faults on the route between them. We prove a number of results concerning the diameter of surviving route graphs. We show that if &rgr; is a minimal length routing, then the diameter of R(G,&rgr;)/F can be on the order of the number of nodes of G, even if F consists of only a single node. However, if G is the n-dimensional cube, the diameter of R(G,&rgr;)/F≤3 for any minimal length routing &rgr; and any set of faults F with |F|<n. We also show that if F consists only of edges and does not disconnect G, then the diameter of R(G,&rgr;)/F is ≤ 3|F|+1, while if F consists only of nodes and does not disconnect G, then the diameter of R(G,&rgr;)/F is ≤ the sum of the degrees of the nodes in F, where in both cases &rgr; is an arbitrary minimal length routing. We conclude with one of the most important contributions of this paper: a list of interesting and apparently difficult open problems.
35307334
Performing Work Efficiently in the Presence of Faults
We consider a system of t synchronous processes that communicate only by sending messages to one another, and together the processes must perform n independent units of work. Processes may fail by crashing; we want to guarantee that in every execution of the protocol in which at least one process survives, all n units of work will be performed. We consider three parameters: the number of messages sent, the total number of units of work performed (including multiplicities), and time. We present three protocols for solving the problem. All three are work optimal, doing O(n+t) work. The first has moderate costs in the remaining two parameters, sends $O(t\sqrt{t})$ messages, and takes O(n+t) time. This protocol can be easily modified to run in any completely asynchronous system equipped with a failure detection mechanism. The second sends only O(t log t) messages, but its running time is large (O(t2(n+t) 2n+t)). The third is essentially time optimal in the (usual) case in which there are no failures, and its time complexity degrades gracefully as the number of failures increases.
7572747
Set-theoretic completeness for epistemic and conditional logic
The standard approach to logic in the literature in philosophy and mathematics, which has also been adopted in computer science, is to define a language (the syntax), an appropriate class of models together with an interpretation of formulas in the language (the semantics), a collection of axioms and rules of inference characterizing reasoning (the proof theory), and then relate the proof theory to the semantics via soundness and completeness results. Here we consider an approach that is more common in the economics literature, which works purely at the semantic, set-theoretic level. We provide set-theoretic completeness results for a number of epistemic and conditional logics, and contrast the expressive power of the syntactic and set-theoretic approaches.
23622807
Time to publication: a progress report
The process of submitting a paper to a journal can be incredibly frustrating for authors. Practically everyone who has been active in research for more than a few years has either first-or secondhand experience with some real horror stories. One of my goals when I took over JACM was to ease some of these frustrations, by speeding up the time to publication. I'd like to give you a sense of our progress in reaching that goal. Traditionally, a paper submitted to JACM went through many steps: the paper was submitted to the editor-in-chief; the editor-in-chief sent it to an editor; the editor sent it to referees; the paper went through one or more iterations between the referees, editor, editor-in-chief, and author(s); if the paper was accepted, it went on to the publication queue; authors received galleys and corrected them; and the paper finally appeared. As a result, the median time from submission to final acceptance for papers published in 1997 was 20 months. I would like to cut this down to 12 months. Often the most frustrating experience for authors is to submit a paper and then, after more than a year of waiting, to discover that it has been rejected. I don't have reliable statistics yet for how long such papers were in the system, but I would like to see significant progress here too. I would expect that the median time in the system for papers that are ultimately rejected will be 4 months. My predecessor, Tom Leighton, focused on what was the major cause of delay—the amount of time an accepted paper waited in the publication queue before it appeared. This wait used to be measured in years. The fact that the mean time to publication for 1997 was 20 months already shows how significant the improvement has been here. Currently (April 1998) the JACM web site shows that there are 19 papers in the queue, which means that the wait is approximately 3 issues, or 6 months. Since it is considered dangerous for an editor-in-chief to have too small a backlog, this is about the best that can be expected as far as the publication queue, at least until JACM goes completely electronic. Note, however, that final papers submitted in postscript are posted on the web site within a few days of submission; the papers on the queue are available to the world almost immediately. What …
8145017
Characterizing the Common Prior Assumption
Abstract Logical characterizations of the common prior assumption (CPA) are investigated. Two approaches are considered. The first is called frame distinguishability , and is similar in spirit to the approaches considered in the economics literature. Results similar to those obtained in the economics literature are proved here as well, namely, that we can distinguish finite spaces that satisfy the CPA from those that do not in terms of disagreements in expectation. However, it is shown that, for the language used here, no formulas can distinguish infinite spaces satisfying the CPA from those that do not. The second approach considered is that of finding a sound and complete axiomatization. Such an axiomatization is provided; again, the key axiom involves disagreements in expectation. The same axiom system is shown to be sound and complete both in the finite and the infinite case. Thus, the two approaches to characterizing the CPA behave quite differently in the case of infinite spaces. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C70, D80.
3055934
A knowledge-theoretic analysis of uniform distributed coordination and failure detectors
Abstract.It is shown that, in a precise sense, if there is no bound on the number of faulty processes in a system with unreliable but fair communication, Uniform Distributed Coordination (UDC) can be attained if and only if a system has perfect failure detectors. This result is generalized to the case where there is a bound t on the number of faulty processes. It is shown that a certain type of generalized failure detector is necessary and sufficient for achieving UDC in a context with at most t faulty processes. Reasoning about processes’ knowledge as to which other processes are faulty plays a key role in the analysis.