9111832
Learning and discovery of predictive state representations in dynamical systems with reset
Predictive state representations (PSRs) are a recently proposed way of modeling controlled dynamical systems. PSR-based models use predictions of observable outcomes of tests that could be done on the system as their state representation, and have model parameters that define how the predictive state representation changes over time as actions are taken and observations noted. Learning PSR-based models requires solving two subproblems: 1) discovery of the tests whose predictions constitute state, and 2) learning the model parameters that define the dynamics. So far, there have been no results available on the discovery subproblem while for the learning subproblem an approximate-gradient algorithm has been proposed (Singh et al., 2003) with mixed results (it works on some domains and not on others). In this paper, we provide the first discovery algorithm and a new learning algorithm for linear PSRs for the special class of controlled dynamical systems that have a reset operation. We provide experimental verification of our algorithms. Finally, we also distinguish our work from prior work by Jaeger (2000) on observable operator models (OOMs).
2695116
Near-Optimal Reinforcement Learning in Polynomial Time
We present new algorithms for reinforcement learning and prove that they have polynomial bounds on the resources required to achieve near-optimal return in general Markov decision processes. After observing that the number of actions required to approach the optimal return is lower bounded by the mixing time T of the optimal policy (in the undiscounted case) or by the horizon time T (in the discounted case), we then give algorithms requiring a number of actions and total computation time that are only polynomial in T and the number of states and actions, for both the undiscounted and discounted cases. An interesting aspect of our algorithms is their explicit handling of the Exploration-Exploitation trade-off.
2624439
Learning Predictive State Representations
We introduce the first algorithm for learning predictive state representations (PSRs), which are a way of representing the state of a controlled dynamical system. The state representation in a PSR is a vector of predictions of tests, where tests are sequences of actions and observations said to be true if and only if all the observations occur given that all the actions are taken. The problem of finding a good PSR. one that is a sufficient statistic for the dynamical system--can be divided into two parts: 1) discovery of a good set of tests, and 2) learning to make accurate predictions for those tests. In this paper, we present detailed empirical results using a gradient-based algorithm for addressing the second problem. Our results demonstrate several sample systems in which the algorithm learns to make correct predictions and several situations in which the algorithm is less successful. Our analysis reveals challenges that will need to be addressed in future PSR learning algorithms.
2661414
Graphical Models for Game Theory
We introduce a compact graph-theoretic representation for multi-party game theory. Our main result is a provably correct and efficient algorithm for computing approximate Nash equilibria in one-stage games represented by trees or sparse graphs.
7241207
Intrinsically Motivated Reinforcement Learning
Psychologists call behavior intrinsically motivated when it is engaged in for its own sake rather than as a step toward solving a specific problem of clear practical value. But what we learn during intrinsically motivated behavior is essential for our development as competent autonomous entities able to efficiently solve a wide range of practical problems as they arise. In this paper we present initial results from a computational study of intrinsically motivated reinforcement learning aimed at allowing artificial agents to construct and extend hierarchies of reusable skills that are needed for competent autonomy.
5053575
Bias-Variance Error Bounds for Temporal Difference Updates
Temporal difference (td) algorithms are used in reinforcement learning to compute estimates of the value of a given policy in an unknown Markov decision process (policy evaluation). We give rigorous upper bounds on the error of the closely related phased td algorithms (which differ from the standard updates in their treatment of the learning rate) as a function of the amount of experience. These upper bounds prove exponentially fast convergence, with both the rate of convergence and the asymptote strongly dependent on the length of the backups k or the parameter . Our bounds give formal verification to the well-known intuition that td methods are subject to a bias-variance tradeoff, and they lead to schedules for k and that are predicted to be better than any fixed values for these parameters. We give preliminary experimental confirmation of our theory for a version of the random walk problem.
1603562
Probabilistic Strategies for Pursuit in Cluttered Environments with Multiple Robots
In this paper, we describe a method for coordinating multiple robots in a pursuit-evasion domain. We examine the problem of multiple robotic pursuers attempting to locate a non-adversarial mobile evader in an indoor environment. Unlike many other approaches to this problem, our method seeks to minimize expected time of capture rather than guaranteeing capture. This allows us to examine the performance of our algorithm in complex and cluttered environments where guaranteed capture is difficult or impossible with limited pursuers. We present a probabilistic formulation of the problem, discretize the environment, and define cost heuristics for use in planning. We then propose a scalable algorithm using an entropy cost heuristic that searches possible movement paths to determine coordination strategies for the robotic pursuers. We present simulated results describing the performance of our algorithm against state of the art alternatives in a complex office environment. Our algorithm successfully reduces capture time with limited pursuers in an environment beyond the scope of many other approaches.
668272
First Results in the Coordination of Heterogeneous Robots for Large-Scale Assembly
While many multi-robot systems rely on fortuitous cooperation between agents, some tasks, such as the assembly of large structures, require tighter coordination. We present a general software architecture for coordinating heterogeneous robots that allows for both autonomy of the individual agents as well as explicit coordination. This paper presents recent results with three robots with very different configurations. Working as a team, these robots are able to perform a high-precision docking task that none could achieve individually.
853906
Analytical Mean Squared Error Curves for Temporal Difference Learning
We provide analytical expressions governing changes to the bias and variance of the lookup table estimators provided by various Monte Carlo and temporal difference value estimation algorithms with offline updates over trials in absorbing Markov reward processes. We have used these expressions to develop software that serves as an analysis tool: given a complete description of a Markov reward process, it rapidly yields an exact mean-square-error curve, the curve one would get from averaging together sample mean-square-error curves from an infinite number of learning trials on the given problem. We use our analysis tool to illustrate classes of mean-square-error curve behavior in a variety of example reward processes, and we show that although the various temporal difference algorithms are quite sensitive to the choice of step-size and eligibility-trace parameters, there are values of these parameters that make them similarly competent, and generally good.
748558
Automated Worm Fingerprinting
Network worms are a clear and growing threat to the security of today's Internet-connected hosts and networks. The combination of the Internet's unrestricted connectivity and widespread software homogeneity allows network pathogens to exploit tremendous parallelism in their propagation. In fact, modern worms can spread so quickly, and so widely, that no human-mediated reaction can hope to contain an outbreak. 
 
In this paper, we propose an automated approach for quickly detecting previously unknown worms and viruses based on two key behavioral characteristics - a common exploit sequence together with a range of unique sources generating infections and destinations being targeted. More importantly, our approach - called "content sifting" - automatically generates precise signatures that can then be used to filter or moderate the spread of the worm elsewhere in the network. 
 
Using a combination of existing and novel algorithms we have developed a scalable content sifting implementation with low memory and CPU requirements. Over months of active use at UCSD, our Earlybird prototype system has automatically detected and generated signatures for all pathogens known to be active on our network as well as for several new worms and viruses which were unknown at the time our system identified them. Our initial experience suggests that, for a wide range of network pathogens, it may be practical to construct fully automated defenses - even against so-called "zero-day" epidemics.
5635288
Indexing Uncertain Categorical Data
Uncertainty in categorical data is commonplace in many applications, including data cleaning, database integration, and biological annotation. In such domains, the correct value of an attribute is often unknown, but may be selected from a reasonable number of alternatives. Current database management systems do not provide a convenient means for representing or manipulating this type of uncertainty. In this paper we extend traditional systems to explicitly handle uncertainty in data values. We propose two index structures for efficiently searching uncertain categorical data, one based on the R-tree and another based on an inverted index structure. Using these structures, we provide a detailed description of the probabilistic equality queries they support. Experimental results using real and synthetic datasets demonstrate how these index structures can effectively improve the performance of queries through the use of internal probabilistic information.