5159462
Predictive State Representations: A New Theory for Modeling Dynamical Systems
Modeling dynamical systems, both for control purposes and to make predictions about their behavior, is ubiquitous in science and engineering. Predictive state representations (PSRs) are a recently introduced class of models for discrete-time dynamical systems. The key idea behind PSRs and the closely related OOMs (Jaeger's observable operator models) is to represent the state of the system as a set of predictions of observable outcomes of experiments one can do in the system. This makes PSRs rather different from history-based models such as nth-order Markov models and hidden-state-based models such as HMMs and POMDPs. We introduce an interesting construct, the system-dynamics matrix, and show how PSRs can be derived simply from it. We also use this construct to show formally that PSRs are more general than both nth-order Markov models and HMMs/POMDPs. Finally, we discuss the main difference between PSRs and OOMs and conclude with directions for future work.
2695116
Near-Optimal Reinforcement Learning in Polynomial Time
We present new algorithms for reinforcement learning and prove that they have polynomial bounds on the resources required to achieve near-optimal return in general Markov decision processes. After observing that the number of actions required to approach the optimal return is lower bounded by the mixing time T of the optimal policy (in the undiscounted case) or by the horizon time T (in the discounted case), we then give algorithms requiring a number of actions and total computation time that are only polynomial in T and the number of states and actions, for both the undiscounted and discounted cases. An interesting aspect of our algorithms is their explicit handling of the Exploration-Exploitation trade-off.
7241207
Intrinsically Motivated Reinforcement Learning
Psychologists call behavior intrinsically motivated when it is engaged in for its own sake rather than as a step toward solving a specific problem of clear practical value. But what we learn during intrinsically motivated behavior is essential for our development as competent autonomous entities able to efficiently solve a wide range of practical problems as they arise. In this paper we present initial results from a computational study of intrinsically motivated reinforcement learning aimed at allowing artificial agents to construct and extend hierarchies of reusable skills that are needed for competent autonomy.
2624439
Learning Predictive State Representations
We introduce the first algorithm for learning predictive state representations (PSRs), which are a way of representing the state of a controlled dynamical system. The state representation in a PSR is a vector of predictions of tests, where tests are sequences of actions and observations said to be true if and only if all the observations occur given that all the actions are taken. The problem of finding a good PSR. one that is a sufficient statistic for the dynamical system--can be divided into two parts: 1) discovery of a good set of tests, and 2) learning to make accurate predictions for those tests. In this paper, we present detailed empirical results using a gradient-based algorithm for addressing the second problem. Our results demonstrate several sample systems in which the algorithm learns to make correct predictions and several situations in which the algorithm is less successful. Our analysis reveals challenges that will need to be addressed in future PSR learning algorithms.
2661414
Graphical Models for Game Theory
We introduce a compact graph-theoretic representation for multi-party game theory. Our main result is a provably correct and efficient algorithm for computing approximate Nash equilibria in one-stage games represented by trees or sparse graphs.
5053575
Bias-Variance Error Bounds for Temporal Difference Updates
Temporal difference (td) algorithms are used in reinforcement learning to compute estimates of the value of a given policy in an unknown Markov decision process (policy evaluation). We give rigorous upper bounds on the error of the closely related phased td algorithms (which differ from the standard updates in their treatment of the learning rate) as a function of the amount of experience. These upper bounds prove exponentially fast convergence, with both the rate of convergence and the asymptote strongly dependent on the length of the backups k or the parameter . Our bounds give formal verification to the well-known intuition that td methods are subject to a bias-variance tradeoff, and they lead to schedules for k and that are predicted to be better than any fixed values for these parameters. We give preliminary experimental confirmation of our theory for a version of the random walk problem.
1823400
Models for Automated Earthmoving
We present a composite forward model of the mechanics of an excavator backhoe digging in soil. This model is used to predict the trajectories developed by a closed-loop force based control scheme given initial conditions, some of which can be controlled (excavator control parameters), some directly measured (shape of the terrain), and some estimated (soil properties). Since soil conditions can vary significantly, it is necessary that soil properties be estimated online. Our models are used to both estimate soil properties and predict contact forces between the excavator and the terrain. In a large set of experiments we have conducted, we find that these models are accurate to within approximately 20% and run about 10 times faster than real-time. In this paper we motivate the development of these models and discuss experimental data from our testbed.
5635288
Indexing Uncertain Categorical Data
Uncertainty in categorical data is commonplace in many applications, including data cleaning, database integration, and biological annotation. In such domains, the correct value of an attribute is often unknown, but may be selected from a reasonable number of alternatives. Current database management systems do not provide a convenient means for representing or manipulating this type of uncertainty. In this paper we extend traditional systems to explicitly handle uncertainty in data values. We propose two index structures for efficiently searching uncertain categorical data, one based on the R-tree and another based on an inverted index structure. Using these structures, we provide a detailed description of the probabilistic equality queries they support. Experimental results using real and synthetic datasets demonstrate how these index structures can effectively improve the performance of queries through the use of internal probabilistic information.
18021791
Energy Consumption of TCP in Ad Hoc Networks
In this paper we study the energy cost (protocol processing and communication cost) and goodput of different flavors of TCP (Transmission Control Protocol) in ad hoc networks. We implemented a testbed and measured the actual energy cost as well as goodput of running TCP Reno, Newreno, SACK (Selective ACKnowledgement) and a version that combines Explicit Link Failure Notification (ELFN) [7] and Explicit Congestion Notification (ECN) [5] in Newreno. We see that the use of ECN & ELFN does yield higher goodput in most cases with a corresponding lower total energy cost. We see an energy savings of between 20% and 500% depending on the network conditions.
570980
An efficient on-line path planner for outdoor mobile robots
Abstract Mobile robots operating in outdoor unstructured environments often have only incomplete maps and must deal with new objects found during traversal. Path planning in these environments must be incremental to accommodate new information and must use efficient representations. This article reports recent results in path planning using an efficient data structure (framed-quadtrees) and an optimal algorithm (D*) to incrementally replan optimal paths. We show how the use of framed-quadtrees leads to paths that are shorter and more direct than when other representations are used. We also show the difference in performance when the robot starts with no information about the world versus when it starts with partial information about the world. Our results indicate that, as would be expected, starting with partial information is better than starting with no information. However, in many cases, partial information results in performance that is almost as good as starting out with complete information about the world, while the computational cost incurred is significantly lower. Our system has been tested in simulation as well on an autonomous jeep equipped with local obstacle avoidance capabilities. Results from both simulation and real experimentation are discussed.
853906
Analytical Mean Squared Error Curves for Temporal Difference Learning
We provide analytical expressions governing changes to the bias and variance of the lookup table estimators provided by various Monte Carlo and temporal difference value estimation algorithms with offline updates over trials in absorbing Markov reward processes. We have used these expressions to develop software that serves as an analysis tool: given a complete description of a Markov reward process, it rapidly yields an exact mean-square-error curve, the curve one would get from averaging together sample mean-square-error curves from an infinite number of learning trials on the given problem. We use our analysis tool to illustrate classes of mean-square-error curve behavior in a variety of example reward processes, and we show that although the various temporal difference algorithms are quite sensitive to the choice of step-size and eligibility-trace parameters, there are values of these parameters that make them similarly competent, and generally good.