14510898
Evolutionary learning of dynamic probabilistic models with large time lags
In this paper, we explore the automatic explanation of multivariate time series (MTS) through learning dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs). We have developed an evolutionary algorithm which exploits certain characteristics of MTS in order to generate good networks as quickly as possible. We compare this algorithm to other standard learning algorithms that have traditionally been used for static Bayesian networks but are adapted for DBNs in this paper. These are extensively tested on both synthetic and real-world MTS for various aspects of efficiency and accuracy. By proposing a simple representation scheme, an efficient learning methodology, and several useful heuristics, we have found that the proposed method is more efficient for learning DBNs from MTS with large time lags, especially in time-demanding situations. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
36065326
Learning short multivariate time series models through evolutionary and sparse matrix computation
Multivariate time series (MTS) data are widely available in different fields including medicine, finance, bioinformatics, science and engineering. Modelling MTS data accurately is important for many decision making activities. One area that has been largely overlooked so far is the particular type of time series where the data set consists of a large number of variables but with a small number of observations. In this paper we describe the development of a novel computational method based on Natural Computation and sparse matrices that bypasses the size restrictions of traditional statistical MTS methods, makes no distribution assumptions, and also locates the associated parameters. Extensive results are presented, where the proposed method is compared with both traditional statistical and heuristic search techniques and evaluated on a number of criteria. The results have implications for a wide range of applications involving the learning of short MTS models.
6104018
A framework for modelling virus gene expression data
Short, high-dimensional, Multivariate Time Series (MTS) data are common in many fields such as medicine, finance and science, and any advance in modelling this kind of data would be beneficial. Nowhere is this truer than functional genomics where effective ways of analysing gene expression data are urgently needed. Progress in this area could help obtain a “global” view of biological processes, and ultimately lead to a great improvement in the quality of human life. We present a computational framework for modelling this type of data, and report experimental results of applying this framework to the analysis of gene expression data in the virology domain. The framework contains a three-step modelling strategy: correlation search, variable grouping, and short MTS modelling. Novel research is involved in each step which has been individually tested on different real-world datasets in engineering and medicine. This is the first attempt to integrate all these components into a coherent computational framework, and test the framework on a very challenging application area, producing promising results.
9772572
A spatio-temporal Bayesian network classifier for understanding visual field deterioration
OBJECTIVE
Progressive loss of the field of vision is characteristic of a number of eye diseases such as glaucoma which is a leading cause of irreversible blindness in the world. Recently, there has been an explosion in the amount of data being stored on patients who suffer from visual deterioration including field test data, retinal image data and patient demographic data. However, there has been relatively little work in modelling the spatial and temporal relationships common to such data. In this paper we introduce a novel method for classifying visual field (VF) data that explicitly models these spatial and temporal relationships.


METHODOLOGY
We carry out an analysis of our proposed spatio-temporal Bayesian classifier and compare it to a number of classifiers from the machine learning and statistical communities. These are all tested on two datasets of VF and clinical data. We investigate the receiver operating characteristics curves, the resulting network structures and also make use of existing anatomical knowledge of the eye in order to validate the discovered models.


RESULTS
Results are very encouraging showing that our classifiers are comparable to existing statistical models whilst also facilitating the understanding of underlying spatial and temporal relationships within VF data. The results reveal the potential of using such models for knowledge discovery within ophthalmic databases, such as networks reflecting the 'nasal step', an early indicator of the onset of glaucoma.


CONCLUSION
The results outlined in this paper pave the way for a substantial program of study involving many other spatial and temporal datasets, including retinal image and clinical data.
5117413
Consensus clustering and functional interpretation of gene-expression data
Microarray analysis using clustering algorithms can suffer from lack of inter-method consistency in assigning related gene-expression profiles to clusters. Obtaining a consensus set of clusters from a number of clustering methods should improve confidence in gene-expression analysis. Here we introduce consensus clustering, which provides such an advantage. When coupled with a statistically based gene functional analysis, our method allowed the identification of novel genes regulated by NFκB and the unfolded protein response in certain B-cell lymphomas.
31090021
A genetic k-medoids clustering algorithm
We propose a hybrid genetic algorithm for k-medoids clustering. A novel heuristic operator is designed and integrated with the genetic algorithm to fine-tune the search. Further, variable length individuals that encode different number of medoids (clusters) are used for evolution with a modified Davies-Bouldin index as a measure of the fitness of the corresponding partitionings. As a result the proposed algorithm can efficiently evolve appropriate partitionings while making no a priori assumption about the number of clusters present in the datasets. In the experiments, we show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm and compare it with other related clustering methods.
7555324
BioProspector: Discovering Conserved DNA Motifs in Upstream Regulatory Regions of Co-Expressed Genes
The development of genome sequencing and DNA microarray analysis of gene expression gives rise to the demand for data-mining tools. BioProspector, a C program using a Gibbs sampling strategy, examines the upstream region of genes in the same gene expression pattern group and looks for regulatory sequence motifs. BioProspector uses zero to third-order Markov background models whose parameters are either given by the user or estimated from a specified sequence file. The significance of each motif found is judged based on a motif score distribution estimated by a Monte Carlo method. In addition, BioProspector modifies the motif model used in the earlier Gibbs samplers to allow for the modeling of gapped motifs and motifs with palindromic patterns. All these modifications greatly improve the performance of the program. Although testing and development are still in progress, the program has shown preliminary success in finding the binding motifs for Saccharomyces cerevisiae RAP1, Bacillus subtilis RNA polymerase, and Escherichia coli CRP. We are currently working on combining BioProspector with a clustering program to explore gene expression networks and regulatory mechanisms.
265423
Prediction of Protein Secondary Structure Based on Residue Pairs
The GOR program for predicting protein secondary structure is extended to include triple correlation. A score system for a residue pair to be at certain conformation state is derived from the conditional weight matrix describing amino acid frequencies at each position of a window flanking the pair under the condition for the pair to be at the fixed state. A program using this score system to predict protein secondary structure is established. After training the model with a learning set created from PDB_SELECT, the program is tested with two test sets. As a method using single sequence for predicting secondary structures, the approach achieves a high accuracy near 70%.
11755901
Interactive mesh deformation with pseudo material effects
This paper presents a novel interactive mesh deformation method that can achieve various dynamic material effects, including elastic membrane and cloth effects. In our framework, a mesh is encoded by some differential quantities based on edge length and dihedral angle; and the deformation is formulated as a least square problem for preserving the edge length and dihedral angle via the differential quantities. In order to obtain anisotropic material effects, we further propose an edge-weighting scheme based on a user-specified vector field. To avoid specifying the local transformations, we set up an iterative scheme for solving the deformation. At last, several examples are presented to show that our approach can interactively generate visually pleasing deformations. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
16904687
What signals do packet-pair dispersions carry?
Although packet-pair probing has been used as one of the primary mechanisms to measure bottleneck capacity, cross-traffic intensity, and available bandwidth of end-to-end Internet paths, there is still no conclusive answer as to what information about the path is contained in the output packet-pair dispersions and how it is encoded. In this paper, we address this issue by deriving closed-form expression of packet-pair dispersion in the context of a single-hop path and general bursty cross-traffic arrival. Under the assumptions of cross-traffic stationarity and ASTA sampling, we examine the statistical properties of the information encoded in inter-packet spacings and derive the asymptotic average of the output packet-pair dispersions as a closed-form function of the input dispersion. We show that this result is different from what was obtained in prior work using fluid cross-traffic models and that this discrepancy has a significant impact on the accuracy of packet-pair bandwidth estimation.
2422545
Probe-level measurement error improves accuracy in detecting differential gene expression
MOTIVATION
Finding differentially expressed genes is a fundamental objective of a microarray experiment. Numerous methods have been proposed to perform this task. Existing methods are based on point estimates of gene expression level obtained from each microarray experiment. This approach discards potentially useful information about measurement error that can be obtained from an appropriate probe-level analysis. Probabilistic probe-level models can be used to measure gene expression and also provide a level of uncertainty in this measurement. This probe-level measurement error provides useful information which can help in the identification of differentially expressed genes.


RESULTS
We propose a Bayesian method to include probe-level measurement error into the detection of differentially expressed genes from replicated experiments. A variational approximation is used for efficient parameter estimation. We compare this approximation with MAP and MCMC parameter estimation in terms of computational efficiency and accuracy. The method is used to calculate the probability of positive log-ratio (PPLR) of expression levels between conditions. Using the measurements from a recently developed Affymetrix probe-level model, multi-mgMOS, we test PPLR on a spike-in dataset and a mouse time-course dataset. Results show that the inclusion of probe-level measurement error improves accuracy in detecting differential gene expression.


AVAILABILITY
The MAP approximation and variational inference described in this paper have been implemented in an R package pplr. The MCMC method is implemented in Matlab. Both software are available from http://umber.sbs.man.ac.uk/resources/puma.