14176228
Mixtures of Predictive Linear Gaussian Models for Nonlinear, Stochastic Dynamical Systems
The Predictive Linear Gaussian model (or PLG) improves upon traditional linear dynamical system models by using a predictive representation of state, which makes consistent parameter estimation possible without any loss of modeling power and while using fewer parameters. This work extends the PLG to model non-linear dynamical systems through the use of a kernelized, nonlinear mixture technique. The resulting generative model has been named the "MPLG," for "Mixture of PLGs." We also develop a novel technique to perform inference in the model, which consists of a hybrid of sigma-point approximations and analytical statistics. We show that the technique leads to fast and accurate approximations, and that it is general enough to be applied in other contexts. We empirically explore the MPLG and demonstrate its viability on several real-world and synthetic tasks.
2661414
Graphical Models for Game Theory
We introduce a compact graph-theoretic representation for multi-party game theory. Our main result is a provably correct and efficient algorithm for computing approximate Nash equilibria in one-stage games represented by trees or sparse graphs.
2624439
Learning Predictive State Representations
We introduce the first algorithm for learning predictive state representations (PSRs), which are a way of representing the state of a controlled dynamical system. The state representation in a PSR is a vector of predictions of tests, where tests are sequences of actions and observations said to be true if and only if all the observations occur given that all the actions are taken. The problem of finding a good PSR. one that is a sufficient statistic for the dynamical system--can be divided into two parts: 1) discovery of a good set of tests, and 2) learning to make accurate predictions for those tests. In this paper, we present detailed empirical results using a gradient-based algorithm for addressing the second problem. Our results demonstrate several sample systems in which the algorithm learns to make correct predictions and several situations in which the algorithm is less successful. Our analysis reveals challenges that will need to be addressed in future PSR learning algorithms.
5053575
Bias-Variance Error Bounds for Temporal Difference Updates
Temporal difference (td) algorithms are used in reinforcement learning to compute estimates of the value of a given policy in an unknown Markov decision process (policy evaluation). We give rigorous upper bounds on the error of the closely related phased td algorithms (which differ from the standard updates in their treatment of the learning rate) as a function of the amount of experience. These upper bounds prove exponentially fast convergence, with both the rate of convergence and the asymptote strongly dependent on the length of the backups k or the parameter . Our bounds give formal verification to the well-known intuition that td methods are subject to a bias-variance tradeoff, and they lead to schedules for k and that are predicted to be better than any fixed values for these parameters. We give preliminary experimental confirmation of our theory for a version of the random walk problem.
7241207
Intrinsically Motivated Reinforcement Learning
Psychologists call behavior intrinsically motivated when it is engaged in for its own sake rather than as a step toward solving a specific problem of clear practical value. But what we learn during intrinsically motivated behavior is essential for our development as competent autonomous entities able to efficiently solve a wide range of practical problems as they arise. In this paper we present initial results from a computational study of intrinsically motivated reinforcement learning aimed at allowing artificial agents to construct and extend hierarchies of reusable skills that are needed for competent autonomy.
2695116
Near-Optimal Reinforcement Learning in Polynomial Time
We present new algorithms for reinforcement learning and prove that they have polynomial bounds on the resources required to achieve near-optimal return in general Markov decision processes. After observing that the number of actions required to approach the optimal return is lower bounded by the mixing time T of the optimal policy (in the undiscounted case) or by the horizon time T (in the discounted case), we then give algorithms requiring a number of actions and total computation time that are only polynomial in T and the number of states and actions, for both the undiscounted and discounted cases. An interesting aspect of our algorithms is their explicit handling of the Exploration-Exploitation trade-off.
1850582
On Scalable Attack Detection in the Network
Current intrusion detection and prevention systems seek to detect a wide class of network intrusions (e.g., DoS attacks, worms, port scans) at network vantage points. Unfortunately, even today, many IDS systems we know of keep per-connection or per-flow state to detect malicious TCP flows. Thus, it is hardly surprising that these IDS systems have not scaled to multi-gigabit speeds. By contrast, both router lookups and fair queuing have scaled to high speeds using aggregation via prefix lookups or DiffServ. Thus, in this paper, we initiate research into the question as to whether one can detect attacks without keeping per-flow state. We will show that such aggregation, while making fast implementations possible, immediately causes two problems. First, aggregation can cause behavioral aliasing where, for example, good behaviors can aggregate to look like bad behaviors. Second, aggregated schemes are susceptible to spoofing by which the intruder sends attacks that have appropriate aggregate behavior. We examine a wide variety of DoS and scanning attacks and show that several categories (bandwidth based, claim-and-hold, port-scanning) can be scalably detected. In addition to existing approaches for scalable attack detection, we propose a novel data structure called partial completion filters (PCFs) that can detect claim-and-hold attacks scalably in the network. We analyze PCFs both analytically and using experiments on real network traces to demonstrate how we can tune PCFs to achieve extremely low false positive and false negative probabilities
5635288
Indexing Uncertain Categorical Data
Uncertainty in categorical data is commonplace in many applications, including data cleaning, database integration, and biological annotation. In such domains, the correct value of an attribute is often unknown, but may be selected from a reasonable number of alternatives. Current database management systems do not provide a convenient means for representing or manipulating this type of uncertainty. In this paper we extend traditional systems to explicitly handle uncertainty in data values. We propose two index structures for efficiently searching uncertain categorical data, one based on the R-tree and another based on an inverted index structure. Using these structures, we provide a detailed description of the probabilistic equality queries they support. Experimental results using real and synthetic datasets demonstrate how these index structures can effectively improve the performance of queries through the use of internal probabilistic information.
2178559
Efficient join processing over uncertain data
In many applications data values are inherently uncertain. This includes moving-objects, sensors and biological databases. There has been recent interest in the development of database management systems that can handle uncertain data. Some proposals for such systems include attribute values that are uncertain. In particular, an attribute value can be modeled as a range of possible values, associated with a probability density function. Previous efforts for this type of data have only addressed simple queries such as range and nearest-neighbor queries. Queries that join multiple relations have not been addressed in earlier work despite the significance of joins in databases. In this paper we address join queries over uncertain data. We propose a semantics for the join operation, define probabilistic operators over uncertain data, and propose join algorithms that provide efficient execution of probabilistic joins. The paper focuses on an important class of joins termed probabilistic threshold joins that avoid some of the semantic complexities of dealing with uncertain data. For this class of joins we develop three sets of optimization techniques: item-level, page-level, and index-level pruning. These techniques facilitate pruning with little space and time overhead, and are easily adapted to most join algorithms. We verify the performance of these techniques experimentally.
52828064
Smart-Aloha for Multi-Hop Wireless Networks

This paper presents a novel slotted ALOHA-based protocol for use in ad hoc networks where nodes are equipped with adaptive array smart antennas. The protocol relies on the ability of the antenna and DoA (Direction of Arrival) algorithms to identify the direction of transmitters and then beamform appropriately to maximize SINR (Signal to Interference and Noise Ratio) at the receiver. The performance of the protocol is evaluated using analytical modeling as well as detailed simulation in OPNET and Matlab where we demonstrate the benefits of using smart antennas. The impact of using different number of antenna elements is also studied for this environment.
2391025
Preliminary results in range-only localization and mapping
This paper presents methods of localization using cooperating landmarks (beacons) that provide the ability to measure range only. Recent advances in radio frequency technology make it possible to measure range between inexpensive beacons and a transponder Such a method has tremendous benefit since line of sight is not required between the beacons and the transponder and because the data association problem can be completely avoided. If the positions of the beacons are known, measurements from multiple beacons can be combined using probability grids to provide an accurate estimate of robot location. This estimate can be improved by using Monte Carlo techniques and Kalman filters to incorporate odometry data. Similar methods can be used to solve the simultaneous localization and mapping problem (SLAM) when beacon locations are uncertain. Experimental results are presented for robot localization. Tracking and SLAM algorithms are demonstrated in simulation.