558847
The Efficient Learning of Multiple Task Sequences
I present a modular network architecture and a learning algorithm based on incremental dynamic programming that allows a single learning agent to learn to solve multiple Markovian decision tasks (MDTs) with significant transfer of learning across the tasks. I consider a class of MDTs, called composite tasks, formed by temporally concatenating a number of simpler, elemental MDTs. The architecture is trained on a set of composite and elemental MDTs. The temporal structure of a composite task is assumed to be unknown and the architecture learns to produce a temporal decomposition. It is shown that under certain conditions the solution of a composite MDT can be constructed by computationally inexpensive modifications of the solutions of its constituent elemental MDTs.
7241207
Intrinsically Motivated Reinforcement Learning
Psychologists call behavior intrinsically motivated when it is engaged in for its own sake rather than as a step toward solving a specific problem of clear practical value. But what we learn during intrinsically motivated behavior is essential for our development as competent autonomous entities able to efficiently solve a wide range of practical problems as they arise. In this paper we present initial results from a computational study of intrinsically motivated reinforcement learning aimed at allowing artificial agents to construct and extend hierarchies of reusable skills that are needed for competent autonomy.
5053575
Bias-Variance Error Bounds for Temporal Difference Updates
Temporal difference (td) algorithms are used in reinforcement learning to compute estimates of the value of a given policy in an unknown Markov decision process (policy evaluation). We give rigorous upper bounds on the error of the closely related phased td algorithms (which differ from the standard updates in their treatment of the learning rate) as a function of the amount of experience. These upper bounds prove exponentially fast convergence, with both the rate of convergence and the asymptote strongly dependent on the length of the backups k or the parameter . Our bounds give formal verification to the well-known intuition that td methods are subject to a bias-variance tradeoff, and they lead to schedules for k and that are predicted to be better than any fixed values for these parameters. We give preliminary experimental confirmation of our theory for a version of the random walk problem.
2624439
Learning Predictive State Representations
We introduce the first algorithm for learning predictive state representations (PSRs), which are a way of representing the state of a controlled dynamical system. The state representation in a PSR is a vector of predictions of tests, where tests are sequences of actions and observations said to be true if and only if all the observations occur given that all the actions are taken. The problem of finding a good PSR. one that is a sufficient statistic for the dynamical system--can be divided into two parts: 1) discovery of a good set of tests, and 2) learning to make accurate predictions for those tests. In this paper, we present detailed empirical results using a gradient-based algorithm for addressing the second problem. Our results demonstrate several sample systems in which the algorithm learns to make correct predictions and several situations in which the algorithm is less successful. Our analysis reveals challenges that will need to be addressed in future PSR learning algorithms.
2695116
Near-Optimal Reinforcement Learning in Polynomial Time
We present new algorithms for reinforcement learning and prove that they have polynomial bounds on the resources required to achieve near-optimal return in general Markov decision processes. After observing that the number of actions required to approach the optimal return is lower bounded by the mixing time T of the optimal policy (in the undiscounted case) or by the horizon time T (in the discounted case), we then give algorithms requiring a number of actions and total computation time that are only polynomial in T and the number of states and actions, for both the undiscounted and discounted cases. An interesting aspect of our algorithms is their explicit handling of the Exploration-Exploitation trade-off.
2661414
Graphical Models for Game Theory
We introduce a compact graph-theoretic representation for multi-party game theory. Our main result is a provably correct and efficient algorithm for computing approximate Nash equilibria in one-stage games represented by trees or sparse graphs.
748558
Automated Worm Fingerprinting
Network worms are a clear and growing threat to the security of today's Internet-connected hosts and networks. The combination of the Internet's unrestricted connectivity and widespread software homogeneity allows network pathogens to exploit tremendous parallelism in their propagation. In fact, modern worms can spread so quickly, and so widely, that no human-mediated reaction can hope to contain an outbreak. 
 
In this paper, we propose an automated approach for quickly detecting previously unknown worms and viruses based on two key behavioral characteristics - a common exploit sequence together with a range of unique sources generating infections and destinations being targeted. More importantly, our approach - called "content sifting" - automatically generates precise signatures that can then be used to filter or moderate the spread of the worm elsewhere in the network. 
 
Using a combination of existing and novel algorithms we have developed a scalable content sifting implementation with low memory and CPU requirements. Over months of active use at UCSD, our Earlybird prototype system has automatically detected and generated signatures for all pathogens known to be active on our network as well as for several new worms and viruses which were unknown at the time our system identified them. Our initial experience suggests that, for a wide range of network pathogens, it may be practical to construct fully automated defenses - even against so-called "zero-day" epidemics.
33975335
UCD of financial services at the smart internet technology centre
In this paper I describe the experience of contributing sociological and anthropological perspectives to the user-centered design of financial services in the Smart Internet Technology Cooperative Research Centre in Australia.
3396566
U-DBMS: A Database System for Managing Constantly-Evolving Data
In many systems, sensors are used to acquire information from external environments such as temperature, pressure and locations. Due to continuous changes in these values, and limited resources (e.g., network bandwidth and battery power), it is often infeasible for the database to store the exact values at all times. Queries that uses these old values can produce invalid results. In order to manage the uncertainty between the actual sensor value and the database value, we propose a system called U-DBMS. U-DBMS extends the database system with uncertainty management functionalities. In particular, each data value is represented as an interval and a probability distribution function, and it can be processed with probabilistic query operators to produce imprecise (but correct) answers. This demonstration presents a PostgreSQL-based system that handles uncertainty and probabilistic queries for constantly-evolving data.
1823400
Models for Automated Earthmoving
We present a composite forward model of the mechanics of an excavator backhoe digging in soil. This model is used to predict the trajectories developed by a closed-loop force based control scheme given initial conditions, some of which can be controlled (excavator control parameters), some directly measured (shape of the terrain), and some estimated (soil properties). Since soil conditions can vary significantly, it is necessary that soil properties be estimated online. Our models are used to both estimate soil properties and predict contact forces between the excavator and the terrain. In a large set of experiments we have conducted, we find that these models are accurate to within approximately 20% and run about 10 times faster than real-time. In this paper we motivate the development of these models and discuss experimental data from our testbed.
668272
First Results in the Coordination of Heterogeneous Robots for Large-Scale Assembly
While many multi-robot systems rely on fortuitous cooperation between agents, some tasks, such as the assembly of large structures, require tighter coordination. We present a general software architecture for coordinating heterogeneous robots that allows for both autonomy of the individual agents as well as explicit coordination. This paper presents recent results with three robots with very different configurations. Working as a team, these robots are able to perform a high-precision docking task that none could achieve individually.