51685517
Off-policy Learning with Options and Recognizers
We introduce a new algorithm for off-policy temporal-difference learning with function approximation that has lower variance and requires less knowledge of the behavior policy than prior methods. We develop the notion of a recognizer, a filter on actions that distorts the behavior policy to produce a related target policy with low-variance importance-sampling corrections. We also consider target policies that are deviations from the state distribution of the behavior policy, such as potential temporally abstract options, which further reduces variance. This paper introduces recognizers and their potential advantages, then develops a full algorithm for linear function approximation and proves that its updates are in the same direction as on-policy TD updates, which implies asymptotic convergence. Even though our algorithm is based on importance sampling, we prove that it requires absolutely no knowledge of the behavior policy for the case of state-aggregation function approximators.
2624439
Learning Predictive State Representations
We introduce the first algorithm for learning predictive state representations (PSRs), which are a way of representing the state of a controlled dynamical system. The state representation in a PSR is a vector of predictions of tests, where tests are sequences of actions and observations said to be true if and only if all the observations occur given that all the actions are taken. The problem of finding a good PSR. one that is a sufficient statistic for the dynamical system--can be divided into two parts: 1) discovery of a good set of tests, and 2) learning to make accurate predictions for those tests. In this paper, we present detailed empirical results using a gradient-based algorithm for addressing the second problem. Our results demonstrate several sample systems in which the algorithm learns to make correct predictions and several situations in which the algorithm is less successful. Our analysis reveals challenges that will need to be addressed in future PSR learning algorithms.
5053575
Bias-Variance Error Bounds for Temporal Difference Updates
Temporal difference (td) algorithms are used in reinforcement learning to compute estimates of the value of a given policy in an unknown Markov decision process (policy evaluation). We give rigorous upper bounds on the error of the closely related phased td algorithms (which differ from the standard updates in their treatment of the learning rate) as a function of the amount of experience. These upper bounds prove exponentially fast convergence, with both the rate of convergence and the asymptote strongly dependent on the length of the backups k or the parameter . Our bounds give formal verification to the well-known intuition that td methods are subject to a bias-variance tradeoff, and they lead to schedules for k and that are predicted to be better than any fixed values for these parameters. We give preliminary experimental confirmation of our theory for a version of the random walk problem.
7241207
Intrinsically Motivated Reinforcement Learning
Psychologists call behavior intrinsically motivated when it is engaged in for its own sake rather than as a step toward solving a specific problem of clear practical value. But what we learn during intrinsically motivated behavior is essential for our development as competent autonomous entities able to efficiently solve a wide range of practical problems as they arise. In this paper we present initial results from a computational study of intrinsically motivated reinforcement learning aimed at allowing artificial agents to construct and extend hierarchies of reusable skills that are needed for competent autonomy.
2695116
Near-Optimal Reinforcement Learning in Polynomial Time
We present new algorithms for reinforcement learning and prove that they have polynomial bounds on the resources required to achieve near-optimal return in general Markov decision processes. After observing that the number of actions required to approach the optimal return is lower bounded by the mixing time T of the optimal policy (in the undiscounted case) or by the horizon time T (in the discounted case), we then give algorithms requiring a number of actions and total computation time that are only polynomial in T and the number of states and actions, for both the undiscounted and discounted cases. An interesting aspect of our algorithms is their explicit handling of the Exploration-Exploitation trade-off.
2661414
Graphical Models for Game Theory
We introduce a compact graph-theoretic representation for multi-party game theory. Our main result is a provably correct and efficient algorithm for computing approximate Nash equilibria in one-stage games represented by trees or sparse graphs.
2391025
Preliminary results in range-only localization and mapping
This paper presents methods of localization using cooperating landmarks (beacons) that provide the ability to measure range only. Recent advances in radio frequency technology make it possible to measure range between inexpensive beacons and a transponder Such a method has tremendous benefit since line of sight is not required between the beacons and the transponder and because the data association problem can be completely avoided. If the positions of the beacons are known, measurements from multiple beacons can be combined using probability grids to provide an accurate estimate of robot location. This estimate can be improved by using Monte Carlo techniques and Kalman filters to incorporate odometry data. Similar methods can be used to solve the simultaneous localization and mapping problem (SLAM) when beacon locations are uncertain. Experimental results are presented for robot localization. Tracking and SLAM algorithms are demonstrated in simulation.
748558
Automated Worm Fingerprinting
Network worms are a clear and growing threat to the security of today's Internet-connected hosts and networks. The combination of the Internet's unrestricted connectivity and widespread software homogeneity allows network pathogens to exploit tremendous parallelism in their propagation. In fact, modern worms can spread so quickly, and so widely, that no human-mediated reaction can hope to contain an outbreak. 
 
In this paper, we propose an automated approach for quickly detecting previously unknown worms and viruses based on two key behavioral characteristics - a common exploit sequence together with a range of unique sources generating infections and destinations being targeted. More importantly, our approach - called "content sifting" - automatically generates precise signatures that can then be used to filter or moderate the spread of the worm elsewhere in the network. 
 
Using a combination of existing and novel algorithms we have developed a scalable content sifting implementation with low memory and CPU requirements. Over months of active use at UCSD, our Earlybird prototype system has automatically detected and generated signatures for all pathogens known to be active on our network as well as for several new worms and viruses which were unknown at the time our system identified them. Our initial experience suggests that, for a wide range of network pathogens, it may be practical to construct fully automated defenses - even against so-called "zero-day" epidemics.
13328335
Multiparametric sensitivity analysis in programming problem with linear-plus-linear fractional objective function
Abstract In this paper, we study multiparametric sensitivity analysis for programming problems with linear-plus-linear fractional objective function using the concept of maximum volume in the tolerance region. We construct critical regions for simultaneous and independent perturbations in the objective function coefficients and in the right-hand-side vector of the given problem. Necessary and sufficient conditions are derived to classify perturbation parameters as `focal' and `non-focal'. Non-focal parameters can have unlimited variations, because of their low sensitivity in practice, these parameters can be deleted from the analysis. For focal parameters, a maximum volume tolerance region is characterized. Theoretical results are illustrated with the help of a numerical example.
7775956
Mining Invariants in Biological Sequences
853906
Analytical Mean Squared Error Curves for Temporal Difference Learning
We provide analytical expressions governing changes to the bias and variance of the lookup table estimators provided by various Monte Carlo and temporal difference value estimation algorithms with offline updates over trials in absorbing Markov reward processes. We have used these expressions to develop software that serves as an analysis tool: given a complete description of a Markov reward process, it rapidly yields an exact mean-square-error curve, the curve one would get from averaging together sample mean-square-error curves from an infinite number of learning trials on the given problem. We use our analysis tool to illustrate classes of mean-square-error curve behavior in a variety of example reward processes, and we show that although the various temporal difference algorithms are quite sensitive to the choice of step-size and eligibility-trace parameters, there are values of these parameters that make them similarly competent, and generally good.