2661414
Graphical Models for Game Theory
We introduce a compact graph-theoretic representation for multi-party game theory. Our main result is a provably correct and efficient algorithm for computing approximate Nash equilibria in one-stage games represented by trees or sparse graphs.
5053575
Bias-Variance Error Bounds for Temporal Difference Updates
Temporal difference (td) algorithms are used in reinforcement learning to compute estimates of the value of a given policy in an unknown Markov decision process (policy evaluation). We give rigorous upper bounds on the error of the closely related phased td algorithms (which differ from the standard updates in their treatment of the learning rate) as a function of the amount of experience. These upper bounds prove exponentially fast convergence, with both the rate of convergence and the asymptote strongly dependent on the length of the backups k or the parameter . Our bounds give formal verification to the well-known intuition that td methods are subject to a bias-variance tradeoff, and they lead to schedules for k and that are predicted to be better than any fixed values for these parameters. We give preliminary experimental confirmation of our theory for a version of the random walk problem.
7241207
Intrinsically Motivated Reinforcement Learning
Psychologists call behavior intrinsically motivated when it is engaged in for its own sake rather than as a step toward solving a specific problem of clear practical value. But what we learn during intrinsically motivated behavior is essential for our development as competent autonomous entities able to efficiently solve a wide range of practical problems as they arise. In this paper we present initial results from a computational study of intrinsically motivated reinforcement learning aimed at allowing artificial agents to construct and extend hierarchies of reusable skills that are needed for competent autonomy.
2624439
Learning Predictive State Representations
We introduce the first algorithm for learning predictive state representations (PSRs), which are a way of representing the state of a controlled dynamical system. The state representation in a PSR is a vector of predictions of tests, where tests are sequences of actions and observations said to be true if and only if all the observations occur given that all the actions are taken. The problem of finding a good PSR. one that is a sufficient statistic for the dynamical system--can be divided into two parts: 1) discovery of a good set of tests, and 2) learning to make accurate predictions for those tests. In this paper, we present detailed empirical results using a gradient-based algorithm for addressing the second problem. Our results demonstrate several sample systems in which the algorithm learns to make correct predictions and several situations in which the algorithm is less successful. Our analysis reveals challenges that will need to be addressed in future PSR learning algorithms.
6543846
Predictive state representations with options
Recent work on predictive state representation (PSR) models has focused on using predictions of the outcomes of open-loop action sequences as state. These predictions answer questions of the form "What is the probability of seeing observation sequence o1, o2, ..., oN if the agent takes action sequence a1, a2, ..., aN from some given history?" We would like to ask more expressive questions in our representation of state, such as "If I behave according to some policy until I terminate, what will be my last observation?" We extend the linear PSR framework to answer questions like these about options -- temporally extended, closed-loop courses of action -- bounding the size of the linear PSR needed to model questions about a certain class of options. We introduce a hierarchical PSR (HPSR) that can make predictions about both options and primitive action sequences and show empirical results from learning HPSRs in simple domains.
2695116
Near-Optimal Reinforcement Learning in Polynomial Time
We present new algorithms for reinforcement learning and prove that they have polynomial bounds on the resources required to achieve near-optimal return in general Markov decision processes. After observing that the number of actions required to approach the optimal return is lower bounded by the mixing time T of the optimal policy (in the undiscounted case) or by the horizon time T (in the discounted case), we then give algorithms requiring a number of actions and total computation time that are only polynomial in T and the number of states and actions, for both the undiscounted and discounted cases. An interesting aspect of our algorithms is their explicit handling of the Exploration-Exploitation trade-off.
2178559
Efficient join processing over uncertain data
In many applications data values are inherently uncertain. This includes moving-objects, sensors and biological databases. There has been recent interest in the development of database management systems that can handle uncertain data. Some proposals for such systems include attribute values that are uncertain. In particular, an attribute value can be modeled as a range of possible values, associated with a probability density function. Previous efforts for this type of data have only addressed simple queries such as range and nearest-neighbor queries. Queries that join multiple relations have not been addressed in earlier work despite the significance of joins in databases. In this paper we address join queries over uncertain data. We propose a semantics for the join operation, define probabilistic operators over uncertain data, and propose join algorithms that provide efficient execution of probabilistic joins. The paper focuses on an important class of joins termed probabilistic threshold joins that avoid some of the semantic complexities of dealing with uncertain data. For this class of joins we develop three sets of optimization techniques: item-level, page-level, and index-level pruning. These techniques facilitate pruning with little space and time overhead, and are easily adapted to most join algorithms. We verify the performance of these techniques experimentally.
570980
An efficient on-line path planner for outdoor mobile robots
Abstract Mobile robots operating in outdoor unstructured environments often have only incomplete maps and must deal with new objects found during traversal. Path planning in these environments must be incremental to accommodate new information and must use efficient representations. This article reports recent results in path planning using an efficient data structure (framed-quadtrees) and an optimal algorithm (D*) to incrementally replan optimal paths. We show how the use of framed-quadtrees leads to paths that are shorter and more direct than when other representations are used. We also show the difference in performance when the robot starts with no information about the world versus when it starts with partial information about the world. Our results indicate that, as would be expected, starting with partial information is better than starting with no information. However, in many cases, partial information results in performance that is almost as good as starting out with complete information about the world, while the computational cost incurred is significantly lower. Our system has been tested in simulation as well on an autonomous jeep equipped with local obstacle avoidance capabilities. Results from both simulation and real experimentation are discussed.
206599449
Downloading vs Purchase: Music Industry vs Consumers
The music industry argues that unauthorised downloading of music is detrimentally affecting the industry; a breach of copyright that needs to be stopped. The industry has taken many actions to stamp out unauthorised music downloading, including prosecution of peer-to-peer software users for breach of copyright and against peer-to-peer software suppliers for contributory copyright infringement. Industry commentators have questioned this line of reasoning particularly as there is now significant revenue from legal music downloads in the United States and Europe. This paper draws on a qualitative study of music consumers in Australia to show there is not a clear dichotomy between down- loading and purchase. It is more of a continuum. From the users' perspective, downloading is transformed to the activity of accessing and exploring music. The industry could more fruitfully focus on satisfying this basic aspect of the listening experience in DRM systems in order to work together with their customers.
14183054
Framed-quadtree path planning for mobile robots operating in sparse environments
Mobile robots operating in vast outdoor unstructured environments often only have incomplete maps and must deal with new objects found during traversal. Path planning in such sparsely occupied regions must be incremental to accommodate new information, and, must use efficient representations. In previous work we have developed an optimal method D* to plan paths when the environment is not known ahead of time, but, rather is discovered as the robot moves around. To date, D* has been applied to a uniform grid representation for obstacles and free space. In this paper we propose the use of D* with framed quadtrees to improve the efficiency of planning paths in sparse environments. The new system has been tested in simulation as well on an autonomous jeep, equipped with local obstacle avoidance capabilities. We show how the use of framed quadtrees improves performance in terms of path length, computation speed, and memory requirements.
105018
Multi-resolution planning for earthmoving
We suggest that planning for automated earthmoving operations such as digging a foundation or leveling a mound of soil, be treated at multiple levels. In a system that we have developed, a coarse-level planner is used to tessellate the volume to be excavated into smaller pieces that are sequenced in order to complete the task efficiently. Each of the smaller volumes is treated with a refined planner that selects digging actions based on constraint optimization over the space of prototypical digging actions. We discuss planners and the associated representations for two types of earthmoving machines: an excavator backhoe and a wheel loader. Experimental results from a full-scale automated excavator and simulated wheel loader are presented.