Empirical Study of the Accuracy of Selected Methods of Projecting State Populations
Abstract * This paper is based on a project of the Bureau of the Census carried on while the author was employed at that agency. The assistance of Mrs. Beatrice M. Rosen of the Bureau of the Census is gratefully acknowledged. A summary of the results of this study was presented at a meeting of the Population Association of America on April 19, 1952. As tentative guides in the preparation of population projections for geographic subdivisions of the United States, the accuracy in the past of several methods of projecting population has been measured. These measures have been analyzed to some extent for information on the effects of selected factors other than methodology on the accuracy of projections.