Forecasting the 12–14 March 1993 Superstorm
Abstract This paper describes the decision-making process used by the forecasters in the National Meteorological Center's Meteorological Operations Division and in Weather Forecast Offices of the National Weather Service to provide the successful forecasts of the superstorm of 12–14 March 1993. This review illustrates 1) the difficult decisions forecasters faced when using sometimes conflicting model guidance, 2) the forecasters’ success in recognizing the mesoscale aspects of the storm as it began to develop and move along the Gulf and East Coasts of the United States, and 3) their ability to produce one of the most successful heavy snow and blizzard forecasts ever for a major winter storm that affected the eastern third of the United States. The successful aspects of the forecasts include the following. 1) Cyclogenesis was predicted up to 5 days prior to its onset. 2) The unusual intensity of the storm was predicted three days in advance, allowing forecasters, government officials, and the media ample t...