Causes and consequences of extreme Permo-Triassic warming to globally equable climate and relation to the Permo-Triassic extinction and recovery
Permian waning of the low-latitude Alleghenian/Variscan/Hercynian orogenesis led to a long collisional orogeny gap that cut down the availability of chemically weatherable fresh silicate rock resulting in a high-CO2 atmosphere and global warming. The correspondingly reduced delivery of nutrients to the biosphere caused further increases in CO2 and warming. Melting of polar ice curtailed sinking of O2- and nutrient-rich cold brines while pole-to-equator thermal gradients weakened. Wind shear and associated wind-driven upwelling lessened, further diminishing productivity and carbon burial. As the Earth warmed, dry climates expanded to mid-latitudes, causing latitudinal expansion of the Ferrel circulation cell at the expense of the polar cell. Increased coastal evaporation generated O2- and nutrient-deficient warm saline bottom water (WSBW) and delivered it to a weakly circulating deep ocean. Warm, deep currents delivered ever more heat to high latitudes until polar sinking of cold water was replaced by upwelling WSBW. With the loss of polar sinking, the ocean was rapidly filled with WSBW that became increasingly anoxic and finally euxinic by the end of the Permian. Rapid incursion of WSBW could have produced ∼20 m of thermal expansion of the oceans, generating the well-documented marine transgression that flooded embayments in dry, hot Pangaean mid-latitudes. The flooding further increased WSBW production and anoxia, and brought that anoxic water onto the shelves. Release of CO2 from the Siberian traps and methane from clathrates below the warming ocean bottom sharply enhanced the already strong greenhouse. Increasingly frequent and powerful cyclonic storms mined upwelling high-latitude heat and released it to the atmosphere. That heat, trapped by overlying clouds of its own making, suggests complete breakdown of the dry polar cell. Resulting rapid and intense polar warming caused or contributed to extinction of the remaining latest Permian coal forests that could not migrate any farther poleward because of light limitations. Loss of water stored by the forests led to aquifer drainage, adding another ∼5 m to the transgression. Non-peat-forming vegetation survived at the newly moist poles. Climate feedback from the coal-forest extinction further intensified warmth, contributing to delayed biotic recovery that generally did not begin until mid-Triassic, but appears to have resumed first at high latitudes late in the Early Triassic. Current quantitative models fail to generate high-latitude warmth and so do not produce the chain of events we outline in this paper. Future quantitative modeling addressing factors such as polar cloudiness, increased poleward heat transport by deep water and its upwelling by cyclonic storms, and sustainable mid-latitude sinking of warm brines to promote anoxia, warming, and thermal expansion of deep water may more closely simulate conditions indicated by geological and paleontological data.