Emerging Consensus: Results from the Second Wave of Statistical Studies on Civil War Termination
This study searches for consensus findings in the burgeoning statistical literature on civil war termination. Several trends are identified: the final outcomes of civil wars are largely dependent on the military situation; the duration of civil wars, by contrast, depends to a great degree on contextual factors such as inter-ethnic relations, the fragmentation of violence, and economic incentives; while compromise settlements reduce the risk of post-war massacres, they take longer to achieve than military victories and are more likely to collapse into renewed warfare. These results also suggest an intervener's dilemma: while external military intervention can lead to compromise and prevent genocide, it also prolongs the killing and may increase the risk of war recurrence. Interveners appear to have more success after wars than during them. Several other puzzles emerge from the statistical results, which call for theoretical development and further qualitative and quantitative analysis.