A modification of Bayesian approach in nuclear plant data analysis
Abstract A deficiency in the previously used two-stage Bayes method is revealed, and a shortcoming is demonstrated when a posterior distribution is used updatingly as the prior distribution to calculate a new posterior distribution after obtaining new test data. The example of a conjugated Beta-binomial is discussed and it is proved that the variance of the new posterior distribution obtained may decrease remarkably with increase in the updating test data. However, the test data are not in accord with the small variance. Finally, a modified Bayesian method is proposed to remedy the above deficiency.