The role of data variability and uncertainty in the probability of mitigating environmental impacts from cement and concrete
Concrete is the most produced manmade material globally. This widespread production results in significant anthropogenic environmental impacts, the awareness of which has spurred advances in material development to lower these burdens. However, proposed changes are often not assessed in the context of the data variability and uncertainty inherent in the environmental impact quantification methods employed. As such, the probability that any suggested strategy will result in a desired effect is not addressed. This work aims to quantitatively examine data variability, an inherent characteristic of elements in supply chains, and data uncertainty, a function of data quality for the system being modeled, in assessments of greenhouse gas (GHG) and air pollutant emissions from concrete production. Data variability is determined through ranges in requisite input values from the literature; data uncertainty is assessed through application of an established pedigree matrix method. Statistical analysis of the emissions from concrete production incorporating sources of variability and uncertainty are examined through Monte Carlo simulations. Concrete mixtures, representing a feasible structural concrete for use in California infrastructure and three alternative mixtures are assessed, as are three GHG emissions mitigation strategies, namely, a change in thermal energy fuel mix, a change in electricity grid, and use of carbon capture and storage. The distributions of emissions derived through statistical analyses are used to examine the probability of efficacy of these strategies, as well as potential co-benefits on air emissions. Results show each constituent change and each mitigation strategy considered would lead to a reduction in GHG emissions if only mean values are compared; however, the probability of these reductions varies. These findings suggest mitigation efforts may not be as definitive as current assessments suggest. Results indicate the importance of using statistical methods to target desirable mitigation efforts in the environmental impacts from concrete production.