Forecasting Lightning Threat Using Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations
Abstract Two new approaches are proposed and developed for making time- and space-dependent, quantitative short-term forecasts of lightning threats, and a blend of these approaches is devised that capitalizes on the strengths of each. The new methods are distinctive in that they are based entirely on the ice-phase hydrometeor fields generated by regional cloud-resolving numerical simulations, such as those produced by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. These methods are justified by established observational evidence linking aspects of the precipitating ice hydrometeor fields to total flash rates. The methods are straightforward and easy to implement, and offer an effective near-term alternative to the incorporation of complex and costly cloud electrification schemes into numerical models. One method is based on upward fluxes of precipitating ice hydrometeors in the mixed-phase region at the −15°C level, while the second method is based on the vertically integrated amounts of ice hydrometeo...