A Marriage of Inconvenience: Tsunami Aid and the Unraveling of the LTTE and the GoSL's Complex Dependency
Scholars have shown how transnational forces can influence the behavior of belligerents in a civil war, dramatically altering the trajectory of the conflict. The breakdown of the peace process in Sri Lanka, less than a year after the Asian tsunami, has led many to question the relationship between the disaster and the return to war. In this paper, I explore the complex relationship between Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) governance structures and the international community, arguing that post-tsunami relief efforts closed the door to a negotiated settlement by contributing to the insurgency's failed play for autonomy from the Sri Lankan state upon which it had long been reliant for assistance in governing the civilian population in the northern and eastern provinces of Sri Lanka. Through a detailed case study of the micro-level impacts of a massive spike in foreign aid on the organization of a long-running insurgency, the paper is able to assess the merit of the ‘substitution effect’ posited by scholars that argues that foreign aid can allow rebels to ignore civilian concerns in favor of a purely military focus. While generally supportive of this argument, the paper complicates the picture, demonstrating the importance of understanding local contexts for the international relief apparatus that continues to serve as the primary response to disasters, both natural and man-made.