Behavioral Consensus Information Affects People's Inferences about Population Traits
Because people often do not moderate trait inferences when consensus is manipulated, it has been concluded that people neglect consensus information. Use of a Bayesian model, how ever, shows that there is no logical imperative that behavioral base-rate information must moderate trait inferences for a target's behavior. Instead, changes in consensus information can be accommodated by changes in the assumed prevalence of relevant traits in the population. Across two scenarios (N= 84), consensus manipulations had no effect on participants' trait inferences from the target's behavior but had robust effects on participants' assumptions about traits for the average person in a relevant population. Although attributors are unlikely to be using a Bayesian reasoning process, their responses do not violate Bayesian reasoning, and they clearly are not neglecting consensus information. A distinction is drawn between neglecting consensus information and using consensus information in a manner consistent with a dispositional bias.