What happened to the care of older persons in Sweden? A retrospective analysis based upon simulation model calculations, 1985-2000.
There is in Sweden a lack of national data connecting public care services to needs in various sub-groups. As result of these statistical deficiencies there has been a severe lack of solid facts to guide the public debate in Sweden concerning the developments of the old age care system. Also connected to this are the similar problems of predicting future needs development in order to estimate future burdens on the systems of care. A computer model has been developed that, by combining different national and local data sources, describes the development of the Swedish public system of care for older persons in terms of service provision and costs per needs group according to age, gender, marital status and degree of disability or ill-health. The model works in 5-year steps and has a retrospective part covering the period 1985-2000 and a prospective part for the period 2005-2030. In this article is described the structure of the model, assumptions, data sources and results for the retrospective part of the model. The model calculations show that despite of a large increase in the number of older persons there has not been a very substantial increase of needs. The number of persons with severe ill-health is basically unchanged, even if there appears to have been some shift in the composition of the group towards more heavy disability. The reductions in provided services, that the municipalities have been forced to do depending on the harsher economic conditions in Sweden since the beginning of the 1990s, have almost exclusively been targeted on persons with lesser needs. Those most in need have largely been shielded.