Why are cadaveric renal transplants so hard to find in Japan? An analysis of economic and attitudinal aspects.
In view of the fact that in Japan treatment of end-stage renal disease depends disproportionately heavily on hemodialysis and almost negligible on transplants from cadaveric donors (hemodialysis 44.4/100,000; renal transplants 0.31/100,000 per year; cadaveric renal transplants 0.11/100,000 per year (1983 data)), we analysed the cost-effectiveness of hemodialysis and renal transplantation, predicted economic gains under expected changes in variables and described attitudes of the Japanese hampering cadaveric renal transplantation. Adjusted life expectancy of transplant recipients (live and cadaveric combined) under the current technical conditions is longer than that of those on hemodialysis (18.3 vs. 14.7 years) and the cost per year for maintaining the transplant is approximately one third of hemodialysis ($12,000 vs $32,000). If the proportion of cadaveric transplant recipients would increase to the levels of the USA (hemodialysis 30.8/100,000; transplants 2.6/100,000 per year; cadaveric transplants 1.9/100,000 per year (1983 data)) along with improvement in graft survival rate, the life expectancy for transplant recipients in Japan could increase by 2 years, thus reducing the annual cost even further. The current number of patients starting hemodialysis (11,500 cases per year) coupled with their life expectancy predicts the number of patients on hemodialysis to reach equilibrium at around 174,000 in a decade (Japanese population 110 million). Based on current price, their annual cost will be about 5.3 billion dollars. Medical expenditure of this magnitude for such a small fraction of people is expected to become an increasingly strong economic incentive for cadaveric renal transplantation. A review of studies on Japanese attitudes toward cadaveric renal transplantation in both urban and rural areas shows that approximately 60% are in favor of donating their kidney after death, though with the majority of cases the donation is contingent upon agreement of their family. It was suggested that the paucity of cadaveric kidney supply stems mainly from the custom of the Japanese to make decisions by consensus. It was also reported that more than 80% of physicians supported the donation of cadaveric grafts while this rate fell to 40% in case of brain death. As the first heart transplantation was carried out in 1968 under both medically and ethically dubious circumstances, distrust toward the diagnosis of brain death appears to be still quite strong. (Not a single heart transplantation has been attempted in Japan in the past 18 years).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)