covid stock
216259704
The Unprecedented Stock Market Impact of Covid 19
No previous infectious disease outbreak, including the Spanish Flu, has impacted the stock market as forcefully as the COVID 19 pandemic. In fact, previous pandemics left only mild traces on the U.S. stock market. We use text based methods to develop these points with respect to large daily stock market moves back to 1900 and with respect to overall stock market volatility back to 1985. We also evaluate potential explanations for the unprecedented stock market reaction to the COVID 19 pandemic. The evidence we amass suggests that government restrictions on commercial activity and voluntary social distancing, operating with powerful effects in a service oriented economy, are the main reasons the U.S. stock market reacted so much more forcefully to COVID 19 than to previous pandemics in 1918 19, 1957 58 and 1968.
Scott Ross Baker Nicholas Bloom Steven J Davis Kyle J Kost Marco Sammon Tasaneeya Viratyosin
221377646
The Unprecedented Stock Market Reaction to COVID 19
Abstract No previous infectious disease outbreak, including the Spanish Flu, has affected the stock market as forcefully as the COVID 19 pandemic. In fact, previous pandemics left only mild traces on the U.S. stock market. We use text based methods to develop these points with respect to large daily stock market moves back to 1900 and with respect to overall stock market volatility back to 1985. We also evaluate potential explanations for the unprecedented stock market reaction to the COVID 19 pandemic. The evidence we amass suggests that government restrictions on commercial activity and voluntary social distancing, operating with powerful effects in a service oriented economy, are the main reasons the U.S. stock market reacted so much more forcefully to COVID 19 than to previous pandemics in 1918 1919, 1957 1958, and 1968.
Review of Asset Pricing Studies
Scott Ross Baker Nicholas Bloom Steven J Davis Kyle J Kost Marco Sammon Tasaneeya Viratyosin
216309671
Feverish Stock Price Reactions to Covid 19
This paper studies how markets adjust to the sudden emergence of previously neglected risks. It does so by analyzing the stock price effects of the 2019 novel Coronavirus disease (COVID 19) pandemic. The telecom and health care industries did relatively well, while transportation and energy plummeted. Within industries, US firms reliant on Chinese inputs and those with a strong export orientation towards China suffered. Sophisticated investors appear to have started pricing in the effects of the virus already in the first part of January (the "Incubation" phase) that is, before managers or analysts started paying attention; the first earnings conference call that contained a discussion of "Coronavirus" took place on January 22. The "Outbreak" phase followed, during which China oriented stocks and internationally oriented stocks more generally strongly underperformed. In the last week of February and early March (the "Fever" phase) the aggregate market first fell strongly and then entered a whipsaw pattern. But behind these feverish and seemingly behaviorally driven price moves, some patterns emerge. In particular, investors became increasingly worried about corporate debt and liquidity, indicating widespread concerns that the health crisis may evolve into a financial crisis.
Stefano Ramelli Alexander F Wagner
215403632
Death and contagious infectious diseases: Impact of the COVID 19 virus on stock market returns
Abstract This study investigates whether contagious infectious diseases affect stock market outcomes. As a natural experiment, we use panel data regression analysis to measure the effect of the COVID 19 virus, which is a contagious infectious disease, on the Chinese stock market. The findings indicate that both the daily growth in total confirmed cases and in total cases of death caused by COVID 19 have significant negative effects on stock returns across all companies.
Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance
Abdullah M Al-Awadhi Khaled Alsaifi Ahmad M Al-Awadhi Salah Alhammadi
218643951
COVID 19 pandemic, oil prices, stock market, geopolitical risk and policy uncertainty nexus in the US economy: Fresh evidence from the wavelet based approach
Abstract In this paper, we analyze the connectedness between the recent spread of COVID 19, oil price volatility shock, the stock market, geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty in the US within a time frequency framework. The coherence wavelet method and the wavelet based Granger causality tests applied to US recent daily data unveil the unprecedented impact of COVID 19 and oil price shocks on the geopolitical risk levels, economic policy uncertainty and stock market volatility over the low frequency bands. The effect of the COVID 19 on the geopolitical risk substantially higher than on the US economic uncertainty. The COVID 19 risk is perceived differently over the short and the long run and may be firstly viewed as an economic crisis. Our study offers several urgent prominent implications and endorsements for policymakers and asset managers.
International Review of Financial Analysis
Arshian Sharif Chaker Aloui Larisa Yarovaya
218830929
Stock markets' reaction to COVID 19: Cases or fatalities?
Abstract In this paper, we examine the stock markets' response to the COVID 19 pandemic. Using daily COVID 19 confirmed cases and deaths and stock market returns data from 64 countries over the period January 22, 2020 to April 17, 2020, we find that stock markets responded negatively to the growth in COVID 19 confirmed cases. That is, stock market returns declined as the number of confirmed cases increased. We further find that stock markets reacted more proactively to the growth in number of confirmed cases as compared to the growth in number of deaths. Our analysis also suggests negative market reaction was strong during early days of confirmed cases and then between 40 to 60 days after the initial confirmed cases. Overall, our results suggest that stock markets quickly respond to COVID 19 pandemic and this response varies over time depending on the stage of outbreak.
Research in International Business and Finance
Badar Nadeem Ashraf
221065923
Country Responses and the Reaction of the Stock Market to COVID 19 a Preliminary Exposition
ABSTRACT As the coronavirus pandemic (COVID 19) has amplified so has country responses to it. With COVID 19 taking its toll on humans, as reflected in the number of people infected by, and deaths from, COVID 19, countries responded by locking down economic activity and peoples movement, imposing travel bans, and implementing stimulus packages to cushion the unprecedented slowdown in economic activity and loss of jobs. This article provides a commentary on how the most active financial indicator namely, the stock price reacted in real time to different stages in COVID 19's evolution. We argue that, as with any unexpected news, markets over react and as more information becomes available and people understand the ramifications more broadly the market corrects itself. This is our hypothesis which needs robust empirical verification.
Dinh Hoang Bach Phan Paresh Kumar Narayan
216109830
The COVID 19 Outbreak and Affected Countries Stock Markets Response
This paper evaluates the short term impact of the coronavirus outbreak on 21 leading stock market indices in major affected countries including Japan, Korea, Singapore, the USA, Germany, Italy, and the UK etc. The consequences of infectious disease are considerable and have been directly affecting stock markets worldwide. Using an event study method, our results indicate that the stock markets in major affected countries and areas fell quickly after the virus outbreak. Countries in Asia experienced more negative abnormal returns as compared to other countries. Further panel fixed effect regressions also support the adverse effect of COVID 19 confirmed cases on stock indices abnormal returns through an effective channel by adding up investors' pessimistic sentiment on future returns and fears of uncertainties.
International journal of environmental research and public health
Haiyue Liu Aqsa Manzoor Cangyu Wang Liang Cai Zhang Zaira Manzoor
225872918
Impact of the COVID 19 Pandemic on the Crude Oil and Stock Markets in the US: A Time Varying Analysis
This research explores the interaction among the COVID 19 pandemic, crude oil market and stock market in the U.S. by utilizing a time varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP VAR) model. Our results indicate that there is a negative connection between crude oil returns and stock returns. Interestingly, contrary to our intuition, we find that the COVID 19 pandemic cannot exert a negative effect but has a statistically significantly positive effect on crude oil returns and stock returns.
Lu Liu En-Ze Wang Chien-Chiang Lee
219075911
COVID 19 and Stock Market Volatility
I investigate the impact of COVID 19 cases and related deaths on the US stock market (Dow Jones and S&P500 indices) allowing for changes in trading volume and volatility expectations, as well as day of the week effects. The results, based a GARCH(1,1) model and data from April 8, 2019 to April 9, 2020, suggest that changes in the number of cases and deaths in the US and six other countries majorly affected by the COVID 19 crisis do not have an impact on the US stock market returns, apart from the number of reported cases for China. However, there is evidence of a positive impact, for some countries, on the conditional heteroscedasticity of the Dow Jones and S&P500 returns. VAR models suggest that the number of reported deaths in Italy and France have a negative impact on stock market returns, and a positive impact on the VIX returns. Finally, Markov Switching models suggest that at the end of February 2020 the magnitude of the negative impact of the VIX on stock market returns increased threefold.
Enrico Onali