north Korea: weather
54745650
Accuracy assessment of real time flood forecasting of coupled hydrological and mesoscale meteorological models
Abstract. Hydro meteorological predictions are important for water management plans, which include providing early flood warnings and preventing flood damages. This study evaluates the real time precipitation of an atmospheric model at the point and catchment scales to select the proper hydrological model to couple with the atmospheric model. Furthermore, a variety of tests were conducted to quantify the accuracy assessments of coupled models to provide details on the maximum spatial and temporal resolutions and lead times in a real time forecasting system. As a major limitation of previous studies, the temporal and spatial resolutions of the hydrological model are smaller than those of the meteorological model. Here, through ultra fine scale of temporal (10 min) and spatial resolution (1 km x 1 km) we determined the optimal resolution. A numerical weather prediction model and a rainfall runoff model were employed to evaluate real time flood forecasting for the Imjin River (South and North Korea) The comparison of the forecasted precipitation and the observed precipitation indicated that the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model underestimated precipitation. The skill of the model was relatively higher for the catchment than for the point scale, as illustrated by the lower RMSE value, which is important for a semi distributed hydrological model. The variations in temporal and spatial resolutions illustrated a decrease in accuracy; additionally, the optimal spatial resolution obtained at 8 km and the temporal resolution did not affect the inherent inaccuracy of the results. Lead time variation demonstrated that lead time dependency was almost negligible below 36 h. With reference to our case study, comparisons of model performance provided quantitative knowledge for understanding the credibility and restrictions of hydro meteorological models.
Aida Jabbari Jae-Min So Deg-hyo Bae
62825503
The impact of data assimilation on the prediction of Asian desert dust using an operational 4D Var system
Abstract. Asian Dust is a seasonal meteorological phenomenon which affects East Asia, and has severe consequences on the air quality of China, North and South Korea and Japan. Despite the continental extent, the prediction of severe episodes and the anticipation of their consequences is challenging. Three one year experiments were run to assess the skill of the model of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in monitoring Asian dust and understand its relative contribution to air quality over China. Data used were the MODIS Dark Target and the Deep Blue Aerosol Optical Depth. In particular the experiments aimed at understanding the added value of data assimilation runs over a model run without any aerosol data. The year 2013 was chosen as representative for the availability of independent Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) data from two established ground based networks (AERONET and CARSNET) which could be used to evaluate experiments. Particulate Matter (PM) data from the China Environmental Protection Agency (CEPA) were also used in the evaluation. Results show that the assimilation of satellite AOD data is beneficial to predict the extent and magnitude of desert dust events and to improve the forecast of such events. The availability of observations from the MODIS Deep Blue algorithm over bright surfaces is an asset, allowing for a better localization of the sources and definition of the dust events. In general both experiments constrained by data assimilation perform better that the unconstrained experiment, generally showing smaller mean normalized bias and fractional gross error with respect to the independent verification datasets. The impact of the assimilated satellite observations is larger at analysis time, but lasts well into the forecast. While assimilation is not a substitute for model development and characterization of the emission sources, results indicate that it can play a big role in delivering improved forecasts of Asian Dust.
Angela Benedetti Francesca Di Giuseppe Luke Jones Vincent-Henri Peuch Samuel Remy Xiaoye Zhang
134545761
Voyage Environmental Information System (VEIS) for Safe Navigation Support in the Coastal Waters of the Arctic Ocean
ABSTRACT Yang, C. S. Kim, K.O. Lim, H.S. Kim C. H. Kim M. W. and Hong, D. B. 2018. Voyage environmental information system (VEIS) for safe navigation support in the coastal waters of the Arctic Ocean. In: Shim, J. S. Chun, I. and Lim, H.S. (eds. Proceedings from the International Coastal Symposium (ICS) 2018 (Busan, Republic of Korea) Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 85, pp. 561 565. Coconut Creek (Florida) ISSN 0749 0208. The usage of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in the Arctic Ocean has increased much over the years. For the navigation safety in the polar areas, the Polar Code entered into force on January 1, 2017 by International Maritime Organization (IMO) Korea Institute of Ocean Science Technology (KIOST) has developed the Arctic Voyage Environmental Information System (VEIS) for sea ice, ocean, wave and weather parameters with a 2.5 km grid spacing on a polar stereographic north projection. Satellite based sea ice concentration (SIC) includes three kinds of products (AL2, A25, and AM1) AL2 is produced over 5 times a day using the dynamic composite technique based on the SIC Level 2 data acquired from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) The composite (A25) of AL2 and AMSR2 Level 3 data is also generated once a day to serve SIC less than 15% AM1 is the product of A25 merged with sea ice extent data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) of 1 km resolution. The short term prediction data for wave and weather were processed from NCEP, and the data for ocean and sea ice were from Mercator, MetOffice and MetNo through E.U. Copernicus Marine Service Information. The model based short term SIC products were rescaled using the A25 data. The mid term SIC and sea ice thickness (SIT) prediction (one month) system was developed using a statistical method with 26 year re analysis volume and a short term predicted sea ice data.
Journal of Coastal Research
Chan-Su Yang Kyeong Ok Kim Hak Soo Lim Cheolsoo Kim Minwoo Kim Dan-bee Hong
124185416
On the Causes of Summer Droughts in Korea and their Return to Normal
The summer drought years were selected by using the effective drought index for the last 30 years (1974~2003) Some of the causes for the genesis of the drought and their return to normal weather conditions were investigated based on the common characteristics detected among the selected years. The blocking phenomena, the development of the North Pacific High (NPH) and the convergences that accompanied the northward development of the NPH, and their correlations were shown as important factors that have close correlations with the causes and the ends of the summer drought. Also, their correlations with both of the onset and the withdrawal times of the first and the second Changma were considered. In addition, we found that typhoons did not play a significant role in the return to normal conditions.
Yu-Won Kim H R Byun
129758582
The Implications of Climate Vulnerability for North Korean Regime Stability
This paper fuses theoretical models of climate vulnerability and adaptive capacity to critically examine the "muddle through" thesis of regime stability in North Korea, put forward by Marcus Noland, in the context of global climate change. Literature on regime stability in North Korea has reached a consensus Kim Jong il's regime will maintain power by "muddling through," making ad hoc adjustments as localised problems arise. Climate change is a new variable effecting regime perpetuation that has not been discussed in the academic literature. Climate hazards are likely to disrupt the North's agricultural sector and the country's food security, leading to erosion of the state's institutions. In the medium term, predicted climate change impacts on North Korea include decreasing crop yield from the agricultural sector, changing precipitation cycles, and increasing incidence of extreme weather events. North Korea has limited capacity to absorb and adapt to climate hazards. The state is already weakened from ten years of famine and economic isolation, and is inhibited by a rigid totalitarian political system, and crumbling infrastructure. Over time, increasing food shortage may lead to greater reliance on external aid, increased corruption, internal displacement of people, refugee exodus into China, rejection of official ideology, erosion of coercive institutions and even withdrawal of elite support for the regime.
Benjamin Luke Habib
135235804
bughanjiyeog gihujogeoneul goryeohan ceoldohoengdangujomulyi dongsangbangjibangan jesi
As a part of several Eurasian initiatives, the Korean government is trying to reconnect railways through North Korea to the Asian continent. If South Korea could build a network using railway, it would be a chance to develop a robust economic environment and to motivate economic growth. In the railway reconnection project between North and South Korea, the most important part of the railway roadbed sector is repair or improvement, and then construction of a new line through North Korea. There are not many big differences in the geological conditions; however, climate condition varies greatly during winter. The most significant condition in the safety of railway operation is frost heaving. However, since South Korea has a relatively mild climate condition compared with North Korea, design and construction specifications under severe weather conditions in winter have not been prepared. This study proposes a plan for revising the railway design standard for underpass structures through an analysis of international standards, leading to site construction to prevent frost heave.
128963456
Climate Change and the Terminal Decay of the North Korean Regime
Literature on regime stability in North Korea has reached a consensus Kim Jong il's regime will maintain power by "muddling through," making ad hoc adjustments as localised problems arise. Climate change is a new variable that will disrupt regime perpetuation. Climate hazards are likely to disrupt the North's agricultural sector and the country's food security, leading to erosion of the state's institutions. This paper is unique in combining analysis of climate change impacts with the literature on regime stability in North Korea, identifying specific threats to continued regime perpetuation. The regime is vulnerable to socio economic hazards developing from the erosion of the country's food security by climate change. In the medium term, predicted climate change impacts on North Korea include decreasing crop yield from the agricultural sector, changing precipitation cycles, and increasing incidence of extreme weather events. North Korea has limited capacity to absorb and adapt to climate hazards. The state is already weakened from ten years of famine and economic isolation, and is inhibited by a rigid totalitarian political system, crumbling infrastructure and reliance on external aid. Over time, increasing food shortage will lead to greater reliance on external aid, increased corruption, internal displacement of people, refugee exodus into China, rejection of official ideology, erosion of coercive institutions and even withdrawal of elite support for the regime. Climate change hazards could thus push the North Korean regime into terminal decay and destabilise the wider strategic environment of Northeast
Benjamin Luke Habib
157940352
Economic repercussions of the Look East Policy in Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe's LEP includes closer ties with Indonesia, India, Iran, Malaysia, North Korea, but China stands out as the major ally. Owing to the long standing relationship between China and Zimbabwe, the latter speaks glowingly of China as an "all weather friend" (Scoones, 2016) When the Chinese head of state Xi Jinping visited Harare in 2015, he summed up the relationship as a special one that had withstood the test of time. It is in light of such an evolving and strengthening relationship that China represents Zimbabwe's biggest foreign investor after the African country's estrangement from the West, arguably caused by the West's disapproval of Zimbabwe's human rights record, flagrant corruption as well as Zimbabwe's accusations of the West (particularly the United Kingdom) trying to colonise and invade Zimbabwe yet again. In 2013 alone, China contributed over US$ 600 million (Sun, 2016) while between January and November 2015, China further contributed at least US$ 46.5 million in FDI (Sunday News Online, 2016) In addition, in December 2015 while on a two day state visit, President Xi said China would provide Zimbabwe with a US$ 1.2 billion loan to rehabilitate and expand Zimbabwe's coal fired Hwange power plan.
Nusa Tukic Felix Tombindo
127024212
Analysis of a Sea Fog Using Ocean air Observation Data in the Mid Yellow Sea off Korea
Ocean air observation using an Automatic Weather Station (AWS) and Conductivity Temperature Depth (CTD) was conducted in the Mid Yellow Sea off Korea during 8 10 July 2002. A water mass lower than 17 around the Taean peninsula and a tidal front between 3620'N and 3630'N were observed. The horizontal distribution of air temperature was similar to that of sea surface temperature (SST) Hourly observation around Dukjuk island showed the cold and saline southwesterly and the warm and fresh northeasterly in phase with tidal current. Sea fogs two times formed at 2300 LST 8 0130 LST 9, and 0300 0600 LST 9 July 2002 during the observation period, respectively. During the initial stage of fogs, winds became northeasterly at the speed of 2 4m/s, and air temperature dropped to 18, as the North Pacific High weakened. The satellite image indicated that sea fogs formed over warm water in the western Yellow Sea and moved eastward toward the observation site, which could be called a steam fog. The fogs dissipated when wind speed and air temperature increased.
Hee Jin Oh Homan Lee Tae-gun Seo Yong-Hoon Youn Tae-Hee Kim
31664625
Recent land use changes in north dust storm source area affecting Beijing and Tianjin I: agro pastoral transitional zone
Dust storm became a severe environmental problem in Beijing and Tianjin Regions at the beginning of this century, and its trajectory stretches to Korea Peninsula, Japan Archipelago, comes through Pacific Ocean and vanishes at the cast of U.S.A. By means of remote sensing, ground station observation and sand samples, dust storm affecting Beijing and Tianjin Regions comes from Middle Asia and Mongolia Plateau. And, dust from desert margin, plowed farmland and degraded grassland contribute more to the dust weather. The middle part of Inner Mongolia Plateau is the closest sandy land to Beijing and Tianjin, and it is the path of the heaviest dust storm in 2000 that hits a far reaching impact on China's government to manage environment. So, land use pattern and its changes in this area should be stressed on, for combating desertification. Landscape pattern is much mixed and it hits long history of pasturing and tillage in the area, its it whole, three categories of land use become obvious: agro pastoral transitional zone, Otindag sandy land, and grassland. Based on remote sensing (RS) images of Landsat in 1987, 1995 and 2000, using geographical information systems (GIS) this paper delineates land use pattern in agro pastoral transitional zone and analyses its land use changes. The outcome shows that great changes have taken place on land use in recent years, but due to different farming system the transitional zone suffered different desertification. The east, which locates at the south of Otindag sandy land, has large amount of sandy land. And sand v land has surmounted to most other categories of land use, including in swamp or village. Accordingly proper countermeasures should be allocated to each land use pattern.
Proceedings. 2005 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, 2005. IGARSS '05.
Shiying Wang Qiangguo Cai Yanchun Gao