new energy vehicles
204442290
Dual credit policy: Promoting new energy vehicles with battery recycling in a competitive environment?
Abstract New energy vehicles have been recognized as the future direction of development in automobile industry. This paper investigates the issue of the impacts of subsidy policy and dual credit policy on new energy vehicle and fuel vehicle production decision considering battery recycling, in a competitive environment, where the market demand is determined by heterogeneous consumers' utility. Due to that the market size of new energy vehicles is swiftly expanding, used battery is ushering in a period of renewal and replacement, but the performance efficiency of two policies is unclear in the presence of battery recycling. Considering the market of three primary players, the new energy vehicle manufacturer, the fuel vehicle manufacturer and government, non cooperative game models are formulated in which the battery recycling rate and consumers' environmental awareness are taken into accounts. Both the optimal policy decision for the government and the manufacturer is analyzed under three scenarios: subsidy policy, dual credit policy with single credit, and that with two credits, respectively. The results show battery recycling rate is the most crucial element influencing the new energy vehicle manufacturer's competitive status under both policies. Meanwhile, no matter how changes in values of consumers' environmental awareness, recycling rate, and subsidies for consumers, the new energy vehicle manufacturer stays a vulnerable position unless the government offers a new financial subsidy for the new energy vehicle manufacturer, rather than for consumers. Additionally, only in case of dual credit policy with two credits, increasing battery rate yields a demand spillover effect with a maximum percentage of 20.59% which further verifies the efficiency of dual credit policy over subsidy one.
Jizi Li Yaoyao Ku Chunling Liu Yuping Zhou
213203263
Resilience assessment of the lithium supply chain in China under impact of new energy vehicles and supply interruption
Abstract The development of new energy vehicles had a huge impact on lithium demand under the framework of the lithium supply chain, and geopolitical changes have increased the risk of lithium supply interruption. Does the lithium supply chain have the coping ability under the demand impact of new energy vehicles and the risk of supply interruption? Can some improvement measures improve the coping ability of the lithium supply chain? In this paper, the system dynamic modeling is used method to evaluate the supply chain resilience; make the price, supply and demand systems be the three resilient mechanisms of the lithium supply chain; and set demand impact, supply interrupt, and three enhancement measures as the model scenes. The simulation results show that the lithium supply chain is less resilient under the impact of new energy vehicles. Furthermore, the resilience of the lithium supply chain is good under the risk of short term supply interruption, but worse under long term supply interruption. Finally, promoting a design for recycling has the most obvious improvement in coping ability with the lithium supply chain, with reserve stockpile and drawdown focused more on adjusting supply chain fluctuations and; material substitution has only a slight improvement in supply chain resilience.
Liuguo Shao Shuzhen Jin
216273571
Policy cognition of potential consumers of new energy vehicles and its sensitivity to purchase willingness
Abstract The implementation effect of the marketing policies of new energy vehicles is based on a high policy cognition of potential consumers. By using questionnaire survey and experimental research and dividing the consumption promotion policies of new energy vehicles into two categories: "supply" and "demand," this study analyzes potential consumers' policy cognition and its sensitivity to purchase willingness. Results indicate that the policy cognition and purchase willingness of the potential consumers of new energy vehicles are currently at a low level. Policy announcements can also help increase consumer policy cognition and purchase willingness. The sensitivity to the purchase willingness of potential consumers' policy cognition of either "supply" or "demand" side is very significant, and the sensitivity of the "demand side" policy cognition is greater than that of the "supply side" policy. The "purchase subsidy" policy in the "demand side" has the highest sensitivity, whereas the "tax reduction" policy has the lowest sensitivity. The "infrastructure" policy in the "supply side" has the highest sensitivity, whereas the "financial support" and "regulatory improvement" policies are less sensitive. The policy cognition of "purchase subsidy" and "priority right" in the "demand side" and the policy cognition of "infrastructure" in the "supply side" do not match the policy sensitivity. To this end, comprehensively improving the policy cognition of potential consumers in various policies of new energy vehicles and effectively changing the current situation in which the number of the marketing policies of new energy vehicles is promulgated are necessary. However, the policy cognition is low, and the policy "hanging" phenomenon is relatively common. Changing the one sidedness and incompleteness of the current "subsidy retreat" policy propaganda process and guide consumers to correctly recognize that "subsidy subsidence" can evidently increase new energy vehicle consumers' "gain of acquisition." To change the mismatch status of the policy cognition in and policy sensitivity to new energy vehicles, the policy must focus on improving the policy cognition of "priority right" in certain non limited cities and intensify the promotion and implementation of incentive policies for the construction and optimization of "infrastructures" such as charging piles of new energy vehicles.
Yongqing Xiong Liuying Wang
182054791
Exploring purchase intentions of new energy vehicles: From the perspective of frugality and the concept of "mianzi"
Abstract By incorporating socio culture elements into cognitive behavior models, this study explored the influence of supportive policy and customer perceived value on customer purchase intentions of new energy vehicles, and probed the mediating effects of the frugality and the concept of "mianzi" In the current study, the construction of customer perceived value was divided into three dimensions: price factor, functional quality, and service quality. Based on 406 samples in the survey, the study applied structural equation modeling to test the hypotheses. The results showed that supportive policy not only directly influenced price factor and purchase intentions, but also had an indirect positive impact on customer purchase intentions through the mediating effect of the frugality. Meanwhile, three dimensions of customer perceived value had different influences on the purchase intentions. Price factor only affected customer purchase intentions directly, and functional quality only exerted indirectly positive effect through the mediating effect of the frugality on customer purchase intentions. Service quality significantly promoted the concept of "mianzi" while the concept of "mianzi" had no significant effect on customer purchase intentions of new energy vehicles.
Journal of Cleaner Production
Kai Chen Chao Ren Rong Gu Pingdan Zhang
195423325
Promoting new energy vehicles consumption: The effect of implementing carbon regulation on automobile industry in China
Abstract Motivated by a unique legislative practice targeted at increasing new energy vehicles consumption with carbon regulation in China, we study how the program works and how the manufacturer responds. Different from former cash subsidies provided for the buyers, this program intends to stimulate the consumption of green vehicles on the manufacturer side. In this paper, a product differential model on traditional gasoline vehicles (GVs) and new energy vehicles (EVs) is analyzed within a cap and trade regulation system with carbon quota solely provided for EVs. We first examine the effectiveness of carbon regulation program under the case when the manufacturer focuses on primary consumer segment, and the optimal pricing and production strategies are derived. Then, we investigate the firm's strategic decision of whether or not to enter the replacement market with limited total carbon emission. We have the following main findings. (1) Results show that with the increase in carbon quota for EVs, both the market share of EVs and the manufacturer's profit increase. However, the change of total consumer surplus is not certain; (2) In this new cap and trade system, with a larger market coverage, the development of a trade old for new market brings a greater firm profit which is not affected by the total emission cap. We also find that consumers' green preference is positive on increasing the demand of EVs, while it is uncertain on the firm's profit; (3) Importantly, we find that when the carbon quota of new energy vehicles is below a threshold, as the carbon price increases, the demand for GVs increases while the demand for EVs decreases. Therefore, in the formulation of the carbon allowance carbon policy, the impact of carbon price should be fully considered.
Comput. Ind. Eng.
Xiaoxi Zhu Ming-Lun Ren Guangdong Wu Jun Pei Panos M Pardalos
159339722
Forecasting Quarterly Sales Volume of the New Energy Vehicles Industry in China Using a Data Grouping Approach Based Nonlinear Grey Bernoulli Model
The new energy vehicles (NEVs) industry has been regarded as the primary industry involving in the transformation of the China automobile industry and environmental pollution control. Based on the quarterly fluctuation characteristics of NEVs' sales volume in China, this research puts forwards a data grouping approach based nonlinear grey Bernoulli model (DGA based NGBM (1,1) The main ideas of this work are to effectively predict quarterly fluctuation of NEVs industry by introducing a data grouping approach into the NGBM (1,1) model, and then use the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm to optimize the parameters of the model so as to increase forecasting precision. By empirical comparison between the DGA based NGBM (1,1) and existing data grouping approach based GM (1,1) model (DGA based GM (1,1) DGA based NGBM (1,1) can effectively reduce the prediction error resulting from quarterly fluctuation of sales volume of the NEVs, and prediction performance are proven to be favorable. The results of out of sample forecasting using the model proposed show that the sales volume of NEVs in China will increase by 57% in 2019 2020 with a quarterly fluctuation. In 2020, the sales volume of NEVs will exceeds the target of 2 million in the "13th Five Year Strategic Development Plan" Therefore, China needs to pay more attention to infrastructure construction and after sales service for NEVs.
Sustainability
Lingling Pei Qin Li
159323960
Building a sectoral innovation system for new energy vehicles in Hangzhou, China: Insights from evolutionary economics and strategic niche management
Abstract Combining insights from evolutionary economics and strategic niche management, this study investigates the rapid emergence of an innovation system for new energy vehicles (NEV) in Hangzhou, China. Public policy has facilitated the development of strategic priorities and niches for the NEV industry in Hangzhou, demonstrating the role of public policies in advancing the sectoral innovation system. Indeed, the rapid formation of policy stimulates the co evolution of market and technical niches. More specifically, market niches such as, in this case, the renting and sharing markets for NEVs in Hangzhou drive technical niches because market scale provides benefits to manufacturers, who then conduct research and development to improve their technology and reduce production costs. Our case study further recommends that while the key purpose of the underlying policies to promote the creation and growth of the emerging market should remain the same, they also need to be adapted over time. This research suggests that the combination of public policy intended to create markets and the co evolution of market and technical niches has enabled the rapid emergence of the innovation system for this nascent technology at an early phase.
Journal of Cleaner Production
Jun-Na Jin Maureen Mckelvey
159429334
Public perception of new energy vehicles: Evidence from willingness to pay for new energy bus fares in China
Abstract In order to promote the development of new energy buses more smoothly, a random survey of public perception on new energy vehicles and willingness to pay for new energy bus fares is conducted in four first tier cities in China. We design two sets of questions in the survey and adopt a sample selection model to correct the possible sample selection bias in the estimation of willingness to pay for new energy fares. The results show that firstly in the zero willingness to pay samples, very few of them are with genuine zero, the others all being protest respondents. Second, the sample selection model indicates that the sample selection bias is positively significant in the estimation of willingness to pay. Third, income, people's knowledge about new energy vehicles, the degree of recognition of the role of new energy vehicle in improving urban air quality, and views on air quality influence willingness to pay more for new energy bus fares positively. We propose that pricing new energy bus fares higher is reasonable and more knowledge concerning new energy vehicles should be disseminated to the public.
Energy Policy
Ruipeng Tan Boqiang Lin
195237015
Welfare Analysis of Government Subsidy Programs for Fuel Efficient Vehicles and New Energy Vehicles in China
To address energy security and environmental problems, the Chinese government has issued various subsidy programs for fuel efficient vehicles and new energy vehicles (NEVs) This paper investigates the effectiveness and welfare consequences of (1) the vehicle and vessel usage tax incentive (VVUT incentive) (2) the fuel efficient vehicle subsidy program (FEV subsidy program) and (3) the NEV private purchase subsidy pilot program (NEV subsidy program) From car registration data for Shanghai, Changchun, Hangzhou, Hefei, and Shenzhen from 2011 to 2012, we estimate a random coefficient discrete choice model and conduct a counterfactual analysis based on the estimated parameters. The empirical findings suggest that these policies promote the diffusion of fuel efficient vehicles and NEVs and improve fleet fuel efficiency. However, the VVUT incentive and FEV subsidy program increase oil consumption and CO2 emissions. Although the NEV subsidy program decreases gas consumption, it increases CO2 emissions. We also show that the VVUT incentive and FEV subsidy program improve welfare conditions. However, the NEV subsidy program compromises social welfare, as losses of government revenue exceed consumer surplus gains.
Environmental and Resource Economics
Ziying Yang Manping Tang
209317695
An optimised grey buffer operator for forecasting the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China.
In recent years, under a series of policy shocks, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China show the characteristics of trend mutation and non smoothness. In order to forecast the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China, an optimised grey buffer operator is proposed by introducing accumulation and translation transformations. Meanwhile, a genetic algorithm is employed to ascertain its optimum parameters. Forecasting results indicate that the optimised buffer operator can significantly improve the adaptability of the grey model to the production and sales data of new energy vehicles in China, and exhibits much higher prediction accuracy than those of the classical buffer operator and grey model. Besides, the prediction results show that the production and sales of China's new energy vehicles will continue to grow from 2018 to 2020, with an average annual growth rate of 27.53% and 30.49% respectively.
The Science of the total environment
Ling-Yang He Lingling Pei Yu-He Yang