Effects of Low Voter Turnout
27094299
Television and Voter Turnout
I use variation across markets in the timing of television's introduction to identify its impact on voter turnout. The estimated effect is significantly negative, accounting for between a quarter and a half of the total decline in turnout since the 1950s. I argue that substitution away from other media with more political coverage provides a plausible mechanism linking television to voting. As evidence for this, I show that the entry of television in a market coincided with sharp drops in consumption of newspapers and radio, and in political knowledge as measured by election surveys. I also show that both the information and turnout effects were largest in off year congressional elections, which receive extensive coverage in newspapers but little or no coverage on television.
Matthew Gentzkow
144356031
Political Institutions and Voter Turnout in the Industrial Democracies
Differences in voter turnout among industrial democracies are a function of political institutions and electoral law. Specifically, the presence of nationally competitive electoral districts provides incentives for parties and candidates to mobilize voters everywhere, thereby increasing turnout. Disproportionality in the translation of votes into legislative seats provides a disincentive to voting, which lowers turnout. Multipartyism assigns elections a less decisive role in government formation, depressing turnout. By generating more decisive governments, unicameralism provides a clearer link between elections and legislation, increasing turnout. Finally, mandatory voting laws produce a disincentive to not vote. Empirical analyses of average voter turnout levels in the 1970s and 1960s across 19 democracies are consistent with these expectations, although Switzerland and the United States appear to be outliers. The results have major implications for the way we interpret national differences in voter turnout rates.
Robert W Jackman
154087903
Get Out the Vote! How to Increase Voter Turnout
Get Out the Vote! Is a practical guide for anyone trying to mobilize voters or organize at the grass roots. Unlike authors of other campaign advice books, Donald Green and Alan Gerber root their work firmly in rigorous science. Their recommendations emerge from thorough experiments conducted in real electoral settings, examining the impact and effectiveness of door to door canvassing, telephone calls, direct mail, and other campaign tactics. Since 1998 the authors have conducted research in over a dozen states, studying a wide range of federal, state, and municipal elections. Their book connects theory with practice, informing campaign professionals and local organizers as well as students of electoral politics. They discover that many GOTV tactics used by campaign managers and political consultants are less effective than is often believed. The authors, relying on rigorous and systematic research, challenge much of the conventional wisdom about what works and what doesn't in the political campaigns. The authors' applied form of political science has won acclaim from scholars and earned the attention of campaign professionals and journalists. This book presents their result for a non academic audience interested in putting campaign research into practice, and the findings will be surprising to many. Get Out the Vote! will help both consultants and the candidates who use their services better understand the efficacy of campaign methods. It is essential reading in an age of electronic communication, professional electioneering and voter apathy.
Donald P Green Alan S Gerber
42399696
Perceptions of Electoral Fairness and Voter Turnout
Previous research has established a link between turnout and the extent to which voters are faced with a "meaningful" partisan choice in elections; this study extends the logic of this argument to perceptions of the "meaningfulness" of electoral conduct. It hypothesizes that perceptions of electoral integrity are positively related to turnout. The empirical analysis to test this hypothesis is based on aggregate level data from 31 countries, combined with survey results from Module 1 of the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems survey project, which includes new and established democracies. Multilevel modeling is employed to control for a variety of individual and election level variables that have been found in previous research to influence turnout. The results of the analysis show that perceptions of electoral integrity are indeed positively associated with propensity to vote.
Sarah A Birch
17451965
Social Pressure and Voter Turnout: Evidence from a Large Scale Field Experiment
Voter turnout theories based on rational self interested behavior generally fail to predict significant turnout unless they account for the utility that citizens receive from performing their civic duty. We distinguish between two aspects of this type of utility, intrinsic satisfaction from behaving in accordance with a norm and extrinsic incentives to comply, and test the effects of priming intrinsic motives and applying varying degrees of extrinsic pressure. A large scale field experiment involving several hundred thousand registered voters used a series of mailings to gauge these effects. Substantially higher turnout was observed among those who received mailings promising to publicize their turnout to their household or their neighbors. These findings demonstrate the profound importance of social pressure as an inducement to political participation.
American Political Science Review
Alan S Gerber Donald P Green Christopher W Larimer
154676288
WHAT AFFECTS VOTER TURNOUT
Abstract Why is turnout higher in some countries and/or in some elections than in others? Why does it increase or decrease over time? To address these questions, I start with the pioneer studies of Powell and Jackman and then review more recent research. This essay seeks to establish which propositions about the causes of variations in turnout are consistently supported by empirical evidence and which ones remain ambiguous. I point out some enigmas and gaps in the field and suggest directions for future research. Most of the research pertains to established democracies, but analyses of nonestablished democracies are also included here.
Andre Blais
145213671
Estimating the Electoral Effects of Voter Turnout
This article examines the electoral consequences of variation in voter turnout in the United States. Existing scholarship focuses on the claim that high turnout benefits Democrats, but evidence supporting this conjecture is variable and controversial. Previous work, however, does not account for endogeneity between turnout and electoral choice, and thus, causal claims are questionable. Using election day rainfall as an instrumental variable for voter turnout, we are able to estimate the effect of variation in turnout due to across the board changes in the utility of voting. We re examine the Partisan Effects and Two Effects Hypotheses, provide an empirical test of an Anti Incumbent Hypothesis, and propose a Volatility Hypothesis, which posits that high turnout produces less predictable electoral outcomes. Using county level data from the 1948 2000 presidential elections, we find support for each hypothesis. Failing to address the endogeneity problem would lead researchers to incorrectly reject all but the Anti Incumbent Hypothesis. The effect of variation in turnout on electoral outcomes appears quite meaningful. Although election specific factors other than turnout have the greatest influence on who wins an election, variation in turnout significantly affects vote shares at the county, national, and Electoral College levels.
American Political Science Review
Thomas G Hansford Brad T Gomez
155800699
Economic Adversity and Voter Turnout
Does economic adversity affect whether people vote? Data from the November 1974 Current Population Survey are used to estimate the effect that unemployment, poverty, and a decline in financial well being have on voter turnout. Each economic problem suppresses participation. These individual level findings are corroborated with aggregate time series data from presidential and midterm elections since 1896. When a person suffers economic adversity his scarce resources are spent holding body and soul together, not on remote concerns like politics. Economic problems both increase the opportunity costs of political participation and reduce a person's capacity to attend to politics.
Steven J Rosenstone
154771226
Explaining voter turnout: A review of aggregate level research
The amount of scholarly attention directed at resolving the question why people turn out to cast a vote is vast. In a research field dominated by empirical studies e such as the one on voter turnout e an overview of where we stand and what we know is not superfluous. Therefore, the present paper reviews and assesses the empirical evidence brought forward through a meta analysis of 83 aggregate level studies. We thereby concentrate on the effect of socio economic, political and institutional variables. The results argue for the introduction of a 'core' model of voter turnout e including, among other elements, population size and election closeness e that can be used as a starting point for extending our knowledge on why people vote.
Benny Geys
24419724
Municipal Institutions and Voter Turnout in Local Elections
Although low voter turnout in national elections has garnered considerable attention and concern, much lower turnout in municipal elections has often been largely ignored. Using a survey of cities in California, this article examines a series of institutional remedies to low turnout in mayoral and city council elections. Moving local elections to coincide with the dates of national elections would have by far the largest impact on voter turnout, but other institutional changes that tend to raise the stakes of local elections also increase turnout. Specifically, less outsourcing of city services, the use of direct democracy, and more control in the hands of elected rather than appointed officials all tend to increase turnout.
Zoltan Hajnal Paul G Lewis