Flus model
229307648
Simulation of land use change in central Yunnan based on FLUS model
Land use/land cover change (LUCC) is the most direct manifestation of the interaction between human activities and the natural environment [1] The simulation of land use/cover change has important practical significance for the intensive use of land and the sustainable and healthy development of the social economy. The FLUS model was constructed by artificial neural network and other methods, and after verifying the accuracy, the land use pattern of central Yunnan in 2025 was simulated and predicted. The results showed that: garden land decreased by 9km2(12% cultivated land decreased by 256km2(1.23% forest land increased by 290km2(0.37% construction land increased by 45km2(3.4% water area decreased by 6.48km2(0.71% and finally discussed large area New problems exposed in the forecasting process.
2020 IEEE International Conference on Information Technology,Big Data and Artificial Intelligence (ICIBA)
Manhao Luo Shuangyun Peng
234974019
Multi scenario simulation and prediction of ecological space in Hubei province based on FLUS model
Wang Xu MA Bo-wen Liao Dan Chen Kun-lun Yao Hua-song
226552313
Urban Expansion Simulation and Early Warning based on Geospatial Partition and FLUS Model
Zhao Linfeng Liu Xiaoping Li Penghua Chen Guangzhao HE Jialv
89841451
Delineating multi scenario urban growth boundaries with a CA based FLUS model and morphological method.
Abstract Urban growth boundaries (UGBs) have been commonly regarded as a useful tool for controlling urban sprawl. There is a need to create models that can establish plausible UGBs for fast growing regions. Previous methods have merely focused on establishing a single UGB scenario over different time intervals, but rarely considered the influences of macro policy (e.g. future urban demand) and spatial policy (e.g. master plan) for regional planning. However, the spatial patterns of urban expansion are significantly affected by regional planning. In this paper, a CA based method called the future land use simulation (FLUS) is applied to the delineation of UGBs. We argue that the delineation needs to integrate the top down approach with CA for projecting complex land use changes under designed scenarios. The system dynamics model (SD) and cellular automaton model (CA) were interactively coupled in the FLUS model during the projection period. The top down SD is used to project scenarios that relate to macro policy and socioeconomic status, and the bottom up CA accounts for urban growth simulations under the influence of different driving factors and spatial planning policies. A morphological technology based on erosion and dilation is further proposed to generate the UGBs from the FLUS model's simulated urban forms. The proposed UGB FLUS model was applied to the establishment of UGBs in the Pearl River Delta region (PRD) from 2020 to 2050. The results demonstrate that the method can support urban planning by generating feasible patterns for UGBs under different planning scenarios.
Xun Liang Xiaoping Liu Xia Li Yimin Chen He Tian Yao Yao
208507919
Simulation of Land Use Spatial Layout Based on FLUS Model: A Case Study of Huadu District, Guangzhou
China's urbanization process is now in a rapid stage. New urbanization requires us to guide the rational expansion of urban land use, improve the efficiency of urban land use, promote the optimal allocation of land resources and the rational layout of urban space, and achieve regional coordinated and sustainable development. Taking Huadu District of Guangzhou City as an example, based on the 2010 land use status data, the FLUS model was used to simulate the land use status in 2015 at 30 m x 30 m scale, and the reliability of land use status in Huadu District in 2015 was verified. The Markov method is used to predict the land use of Huadu District in 2025, and establish three scenarios of cultivated land protection, ecological protection and compound extension to simulate the spatial distribution of land use in Huadu District. Results show that the Kappa index of the FLUS model is as high as 0.8869, the overall accuracy is 0.9132, the FOM index is also in line with the standard level, and the model simulation accuracy is high. The land use spatial layout under different scenarios is quite reasonable and scientific. The simulation results can provide a valuable reference for the national space planning.
Xiaoning Ma Peifeng Lin Meizhao Chen
90066045
A future land use simulation model (FLUS) for simulating multiple land use scenarios by coupling human and natural effects
Abstract Land use and land cover change (LUCC) simulation models are effective and reproducible tools for analyzing both the causes and consequences of future landscape dynamics under various scenarios. Current simulation models primarily focus on the evolution of specific land use types under the influence of human activities, but they rarely consider background climatic effects. However, these background climate changes significantly affect the landscape dynamics and should be incorporated into long term LUCC simulations under various human climate included scenarios. In this paper, we propose a future land use simulation (FLUS) model that explicitly simulates the long term spatial trajectories of multiple LUCCs. The top down system dynamics and bottom up cellular automata were interactively coupled during the projection period, which improved the model's ability to accurately simulate future land use patterns. A self adaptive inertia and competition mechanism was developed within the CA model to process the complex competitions and interactions between the different land use types. The proposed model was applied to an LUCC simulation in China from 2000 to 2010. The results show promising grid to grid agreement compared to actual land use, and the simulation accuracy is higher than other well accepted models, such as CLUE S and CA models. The model was further applied to the simulation of four scenarios from 2010 to 2050 that depict different development strategies by considering various socio economic and natural climatic factors. The simulation results and findings demonstrate that the proposed model is effective for future LUCC simulation under variously designed scenarios. FLUS is available for free download at http:/www.geosimulation.cn/FLUS.html
Xiaoping Liu Xun Liang Xia Li Xiaocong Xu Jinpei Ou Yimin Chen Shaoying Li Shaojian Wang Fengsong Pei
219703865
Scenario based flood risk assessment for urbanizing deltas using future land use simulation (FLUS) Guangzhou Metropolitan Area as a case study.
Preparing cities for sea level rise is one of the critical challenges of the twenty first century. Extreme weather events, natural hazards, and the failure of climate mitigation and adaptation are substantial risks. These risks are especially significant in fast urbanizing deltas, such as the Pearl River Delta in China, because the conflict between urbanization and flooding caused by climate change will be more significant in the future. This paper elaborates on an approach that employs a future land use simulation (FLUS) model for scenario based 100 year coastal flood risk assessment. Storylines of future scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) called the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5, are utilized in the present study. The Guangzhou Metropolitan Area (GMA) is used as a case study to explore the probable implications of future land use changes due to the ongoing urbanization process in the region in relation to projected environmental changes (sea level rise, storm surge, and land subsidence) The results indicate that there will be a significant increase in flooded urban areas in the future. The simulations show that, as compared to 2015, the built up area in the GMA will increase by 246.57 km2 in 2030 and 513.03 km2 in 2050. As compared to 2015, the flooding of built up areas in 2030 and 2050 will respectively increase by about 31.32 km2 and 48.49 km2 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. It is also found that, as the main driving factor, urbanization will increase the flooding of built up areas in Guangzhou in 2030 and 2050 by about 1.9 km2 and 5.9 km2, respectively, under the RCP 2.6 scenario as compared to 2015. Additionally, due to environmental changes, the flooding of built up areas in Guangzhou will increase by about 24.2 km2 and 26.8 km2, respectively, under the RCP 8.5 scenario by 2030 and 2050 as compared to 2015. This increasing flood risk information determined by the simulation provides insight into the spatial distribution of future flood prone urban areas to facilitate the development and prioritization of flood mitigation measures at the most critical locations in the region.
The Science of the total environment
Weibin Lin Yimin Sun Steffen Nijhuis Zhaoli Wang
215774978
Strategy to reduce unnecessary surgeries in thyroid nodules with cytology of Bethesda category III (AUS/FLUS) a retrospective analysis of 667 patients diagnosed by surgery
Purpose Fine needle aspiration (FNA) is widely used for the diagnosis of thyroid nodules detected by ultrasonography. However, the cytology of atypia of undetermined significance/follicular lesion of undetermined significance (AUS/FLUS) often leads to unnecessary thyroid surgery. This study aimed to identify a strategy to reduce unnecessary surgeries in patients with AUS/FLUS nodules. Methods Medical records of 667 patients with the cytology of AUS/FLUS who underwent surgery from January 2007 to December 2017 were retrospectively reviewed. Clinicopathological data were analyzed to identify malignant factors in thyroid nodules with AUS/FLUS. Factors were compared between patients with thyroid cancer and those with benign thyroid nodules, using stepwise multivariate logistic regression and decision tree model. Results Pathological thyroid cancer was identified in 193 (43.3% patients. There was a significant difference in malignancy incidence with respect to family history, number of nodules, number of FNAs, ultrasonographic finding, lymphocytic thyroiditis, and BRAF V600E mutation. Multivariate analysis showed that ultrasonography (K TIRADS 5) was the most influential independent predictor of malignancy in AUS/FLUS (odds ratio 11.02, p 0.001) followed by possessing BRAF V600E mutation (odds ratio 4.54, p 0.001) This strategy enabled 226 (89.3% patients to avoid unnecessary surgeries based on the decision tree model. There was no node of repeated FNA in the decision tree model, which reduced the risk of malignancy (odds ratio 0.35, p 0.029) Conclusion K TIRADS 5 and BRAF V600E mutation were predictive of malignancy in nodules of AUS/FLUS. These factors should be considered in strategies to reduce unnecessary surgeries for AUS/FLUS.
Endocrine
Yong Joon Suh Yeon Ju Choi
226193051
Modeling and analysis of COVID 19 epidemics with treatment in fractional derivatives using real data from Pakistan
Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that cause different symptoms, from mild cold to severe respiratory distress, and they can be seen in different types of animals such as camels, cattle, cats and bats. Novel coronavirus called COVID 19 is a newly emerged virus that appeared in many countries of the world, but the actual source of the virus is not yet known. The outbreak has caused pandemic with 26,622,706 confirmed infections and 874,708 reported deaths worldwide till August 31, 2020, with 17,717,911 recovered cases. Currently, there exist no vaccines officially approved for the prevention or management of the disease, but alternative drugs meant for HIV, HBV, malaria and some other flus are used to treat this virus. In the present paper, a fractional order epidemic model with two different operators called the classical Caputo operator and the Atangana Baleanu Caputo operator for the transmission of COVID 19 epidemic is proposed and analyzed. The reproduction number \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin} 69pt} \begin{document}\mathcal {R}}_0$\end{document}R0 is obtained for the prediction and persistence of the disease. The dynamic behavior of the equilibria is studied by using fractional Routh Hurwitz stability criterion and fractional La Salle invariant principle. Special attention is given to the global dynamics of the equilibria. Moreover, the fitting of parameters through least squares curve fitting technique is performed, and the average absolute relative error between COVID 19 actual cases and the model's solution for the infectious class is tried to be reduced and the best fitted values of the relevant parameters are achieved. The numerical solution of the proposed COVID 19 fractional order model under the Caputo operator is obtained by using generalized Adams Bashforth Moulton method, whereas for the Atangana Baleanu Caputo operator, we have used a new numerical scheme. Also, the treatment compartment is included in the population which determines the impact of alternative drugs applied for treating the infected individuals. Furthermore, numerical simulations of the model and their graphical presentations are performed to visualize the effectiveness of our theoretical results and to monitor the effect of arbitrary order derivative.
European physical journal plus
Parvaiz Ahmad Naik Mehmet Yavuz Sania Qureshi Jian Zu Stuart Townley
213539273
The delineation of urban growth boundaries in complex ecological environment areas by using cellular automata and a dual environmental evaluation
Abstract Urban growth boundaries are an efficient tool for protecting non urban land uses from being dominated by urban sprawl and can promote sustainable urban development. Previous studies have explored the use of a cellular automata simulation and its visualization products in delimiting future UGBs. However, existing CA UGB delineation models lack a transcendental component for ecological evaluation and are difficult to apply to areas with complex ecological environments or heterogeneous resource endowments. Therefore, this paper introduces an innovative model by coupling the dual environmental evaluation and the Future Land use Simulation CA model for delimiting future UGBs. To prioritize ecological protection, some intermediate products of the DEE are processed as pivotal components in the CA simulations. Strict urban simulation constraints are also applied in the FLUS model to meet the DEE regulations and prioritize ecological protection. This model was implemented to plan future UGBs in Chungking, China. After quantifying and comparing the proposed UGB scheme with other UGB delineations of Chungking by using various landscape metrics, the DEE UGBs show a stronger ability to manage urban patches via aggregation with the simultaneous reconciliation of contradictions among land uses.
Dachuan Zhang Xiaoping Liu Ziyu Lin Xinchang Zhang Honghui Zhang