investor reaction and covid-19 confirmed cases
218830929
Stock markets' reaction to COVID 19: Cases or fatalities?
Abstract In this paper, we examine the stock markets' response to the COVID 19 pandemic. Using daily COVID 19 confirmed cases and deaths and stock market returns data from 64 countries over the period January 22, 2020 to April 17, 2020, we find that stock markets responded negatively to the growth in COVID 19 confirmed cases. That is, stock market returns declined as the number of confirmed cases increased. We further find that stock markets reacted more proactively to the growth in number of confirmed cases as compared to the growth in number of deaths. Our analysis also suggests negative market reaction was strong during early days of confirmed cases and then between 40 to 60 days after the initial confirmed cases. Overall, our results suggest that stock markets quickly respond to COVID 19 pandemic and this response varies over time depending on the stage of outbreak.
Research in International Business and Finance
Badar Nadeem Ashraf
216241234
Chest CT Findings in Cases from the Cruise Ship Diamond Princess with Coronavirus Disease (COVID 19)
Purpose To evaluate the chest CT findings in an environmentally homogeneous cohort from the cruise ship Diamond Princess with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID 19) Materials and Methods This retrospective study comprised 104 cases (mean age, 62 years 16 [standard deviation] range, 25 93 years) with COVID 19 confirmed with reverse transcription polymerase change reaction findings. CT images were reviewed, and the CT severity score was calculated for each lobe and the entire lung. CT findings were compared between asymptomatic and symptomatic cases. Results Of 104 cases, 76 (73% were asymptomatic, 41 (54% of which had lung opacities on CT. Twenty eight (27% cases were symptomatic, 22 (79% of which had abnormal CT findings. Symptomatic cases showed lung opacities and airway abnormalities on CT more frequently than asymptomatic cases [lung opacity; 22 (79% vs 41 (54% airway abnormalities; 14 (50% vs 15 (20% Asymptomatic cases showed more ground glass opacity (GGO) over consolidation (83% while symptomatic cases more frequently showed consolidation over GGO (41% The CT severity score was higher in symptomatic cases than asymptomatic cases, particularly in the lower lobes [symptomatic vs asymptomatic cases; right lower lobe: 2 1 (0 4) vs 1 1 (0 4) left lower lobe: 2 1 (0 4) vs 1 1 (0 3) total score: 7 5 (1 17) vs 4 2 (1 11) Conclusion This study documented a high incidence of subclinical CT changes in cases with COVID 19. Compared with symptomatic cases, asymptomatic cases showed more GGO over consolidation and milder extension of disease on CT. An earlier incorrect version appeared online. This article was corrected on April 8, 2020. (c) RSNA, 2020
Radiology. Cardiothoracic imaging
Shohei Inui Akira Fujikawa Motoyuki Jitsu Naoaki Kunishima Sadahiro Watanabe Yuhi Suzuki Satoshi Umeda Yasuhide Uwabe
227133331
Impact of Mass Screening on the Number of Confirmed Cases, Recovered Cases, and Deaths Due to COVID 19 in Iran: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis.
BACKGROUND Mass screening for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID 19) began in Iran on March 23, 2020, with the purpose of improving early detection of patients for their own health and to prevent onward transmission to others. In this study, we evaluated the impact of the change towards mass screening on new cases reported, cases recovered, and deaths due to COVID 19. METHODS This study analyzed the daily reports on the number of new cases confirmed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing, cases recovered, and deaths due to COVID 19 provided to the Ministry of Health and Medical Education of Iran. Changes in trends on these outcomes were evaluated using interrupted time series analysis. RESULTS From February 19 to May 6, 2020, a total of 519544 COVID 19 tests were done and 101650 diagnoses were made (case/ test ratio 19.6% For the same period, 6418 deaths due to COVID 19 were reported (case fatality ratio 6.3% The number of cases detected increased significantly over the period of scale up of mass screening (P=0.003) as did the number of recovered cases (P=0.001) The number of deaths due to COVID 19 did not change before versus after mass screening. CONCLUSION Following the scale up of mass screening for COVID 19 in Iran, the rate of new cases detected and reported recovered accelerated significantly. Mass screening is likely to have detected many mild and asymptomatic cases that were infectious. Our data support the role that mass screening, coupled with isolation and contract tracing, can have in slowing the COVID 19 epidemic.
Archives of Iranian medicine
Moslem Taheri Soodejani Seyyed Mohammad Tabatabaei Ali Dehghani Willi Mcfarland Hamid Sharifi
219726868
Asymptomatic SARS CoV 2 Infection and COVID 19 Mortality During an Outbreak Investigation in a Skilled Nursing Facility
Abstract Background Outbreaks of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID 19) have been reported in nursing homes and assisted living facilities; however, the extent of asymptomatic and presymptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS CoV 2) infection in this high risk population remains unclear. Methods We conducted an investigation of the first known outbreak of SARS CoV 2 at a skilled nursing facility (SNF) in Illinois on 15 March 2020 and followed residents for 30 days. We tested 126/127 residents for SARS CoV 2 via reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction and performed symptom assessments. We calculated the point prevalence of SARS CoV 2 and assessed symptom onset over 30 day follow up to determine: (1) the proportion of cases who were symptomatic, presymptomatic, and asymptomatic and (2) incidence of symptoms among those who tested negative. We used the Kaplan Meier method to determine the 30 day probability of death for cases. Results Of 126 residents tested, 33 had confirmed SARS CoV 2 on 15 March. Nineteen (58% had symptoms at the time of testing, 1 (3% developed symptoms over follow up, and 13 (39% remained asymptomatic. Thirty five residents who tested negative on 15 March developed symptoms over follow up; of these, 3 were re tested and 2 were positive. The 30 day probability of death among cases was 29% Conclusions SNFs are particularly vulnerable to SARS CoV 2, and residents are at risk of severe outcomes. Attention must be paid to preventing outbreaks in these and other congregate care settings. Widespread testing and infection control are key to help prevent COVID 19 morbidity and mortality in these high risk populations.
Clinical infectious diseases an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America
Mahesh C Patel Lelia H Chaisson Scott A Borgetti Deborah Patterson Burdsall Rashmi Chugh Christopher R Hoff Elizabeth B Murphy Emily A Murskyj Shannon Wilson Joe Ramos Lynn Akker Debra Bryars Evonda Thomas-Smith Susan C Bleasdale Ngozi Ogbunamiri Ezike
219588396
RT PCR tests for SARS CoV 2 processed at a large Italian Hospital and false negative results among confirmed COVID 19 cases
To the Editor In Italy, the first autochthonous case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID 19) was detected on February 21, 2020. By mid April 2020, >15,000 persons had been infected in the country and >20,000 had died.1 More than 1 million upper respiratory specimens were collected through nasopharyngeal or oropharyngeal swabs2 for infection confirmation or screening purposes. The proportion of the population with confirmed infection varies across the 20 Italian regions, as does the number of swabs collected per population unit.2 Real time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT PCR) is used to test for severe acute respiratory coronavirus virus 2 (SARS CoV 2) in the specimens collected through swabs, as recommended by the World Health Organization for clinical management and outbreak control purposes.3 It is currently the gold standard for the etiological diagnosis of SARS CoV 2 infection. However, RT PCR may fail to identify infected persons. A Chinese study of 610 hospitalized COVID 19 cases revealed that results of RT PCR varied within the same patients throughout their diagnostic and therapeutic course and hypothesized a high rate of false positive tests.4 False positive tests were also suspected by Xiao et al5 in their study of 70 COVID 19 patients. The University Hospital of Udine, Italy, serving a population of 530,000, has offered RT PCR tests for detecting SARS CoV 2 since the beginning of March, when the first COVID 19 case was suspected in the hospital catchment area. Swabs are collected from hospitalized or symptomatic persons, from asymptomatic close contacts of confirmed cases, identified through contact tracing, or for screening purposes. We investigated the possibility that a person with COVID 19 confirmed by a positive RT PCR test on an upper respiratory specimen collected though swab had a subsequent false negative test in the first 6 weeks of outbreak, analyzing the anonymous administrative database of the Virology Laboratory of the University Hospital of Udine, where subjects are identified by an anonymous univocal stochastic key. For patients with at least 1 positive test (COVID 19 cases) we assessed false negative tests, defined as negative tests between 2 positive tests. From March 1 to April 12, our laboratory processed 15,702 RT PCT tests on 10,482 people, and we identified 860 new COVID 19 patients (Table 1) The daily number of exams increased progressively exceeding 1,000 by April 9, whereas the proportion of those resulting positive peaked on March 17 (23.5% and then progressively decreased. Subjects with >1 swab collection were 2,949 (28.1% The proportion increased from 25.1% among 9,658 subjects with initial negative exam, to 37.3% among 59 with initial invalid exam, to 65.9% among 765 with initial positive result (kh2 test, P .0001) The median times from first to second exam were 7, 1, and 11 days, respectively. Of 860 COVID 19 cases, 433 had at least 2 additional swabs after the first positive result. The likelihood of having at least 2 additional swabs decreased significantly among the elderly (kh2 test, P .0001) (Table 1) Of COVID 19 cases with at least 2 additional exams, 84 (19.4% had a negative result after the COVID 19 diagnosis, followed by a positive result. The proportion did not vary significantly across age groups (Fisher exact test, P .1821) (Table 1) Among those 84 COVID 19 cases, median time from the negative swab and the following positive swab was 2 days. Only 2 persons had 1 positive result after 2 consecutive negative tests. Negative RT PCR tests followed, within few days, by a positive result among COVID 19 confirmed cases can be reasonably considered a false negative because the same patients had a positive test immediately afterward. Our population included both symptomatic and asymptomatic SARS CoV 2 infections. Our results are important not only for hospitalized patients, who might be discharged based on false negative results but also for asymptomatic cases who might break isolation based on tests that might by not reliable. If those persons are still infectious, they can spread the virus in the community. Lippi et al6 described potential RT PCR vulnerabilities that may affect the diagnostic accuracy of this technique, including both general preanalytical issues (collection, handling, transport and storage of the swabs, quality and volume of the collected material, interference from other substances) and analytical issues (choosing the right diagnostic window, validation of assays, harmonization, instrument functioning) Ways to minimize the risk of diagnostic errors include repeated collection of specimens in patients with suspicion of infection, training on swab collection, quality assurance for analytical procedures, and combination of clinical evidence with RT PCR results.6 Laboratory parameters, such as lactate dehydrogenase, C reactive protein, alanine aminotransferase, neutrophil count,7 and results of chest computed tomography8 can help define the disease stage. We were able to assess only the proportion of false negative tests among subjects with multiple swabs collected after a positive Author for correspondence: Francesca Valent, E mail: francesca.valent@asufc. sanita.fvg.it Cite this article: Valent F, et al. (2020) RT PCR tests for SARS CoV 2 processed at a large Italian Hospital and false negative results among confirmed COVID 19 cases. Infection Control Hospital Epidemiology, https:/doi.org/10.1017/ice.2020.290
Infection Control Hospital Epidemiology
Francesca Valent Anna Doimo Giada Mazzilis Corrado Pipan
215884263
Longitudinal Assessment of COVID 19 Using a Deep Learning based Quantitative CT Pipeline: Illustration of Two Cases
C disease 2019, COVID 19, has recently gained global proportions (1 3) This short report illustrates the use of voxel level deep learning based CT segmentation of pulmonary opacities (4) for improving quantification of the disease. A separate set of CT images from 10 cases of COVID 19 confirmed by real time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction test results was selected for training purposes. Expert manual segmentation of the lungs and pulmonary opacities was used as reference. A convolutional neural network based on U Net architecture (5) was developed to predict the expert segmentation. We used this pipeline to analyze the contrasting evolution
Radiology. Cardiothoracic imaging
Yukun Cao Zhanwei Xu J Feng Cheng Jin Xiaoyu Han Hanping Wu Heshui Shi
225167298
COVID 19 and investor sentiment influence on the US and European countries sector returns
Although some studies recently address the association between COVID 19 sentiment and returns, volatility, or stock trading volume, no one conducts an analysis to measure the impact of investor rationality or irrationality on the influence on countries and sectors' returns This work creates a text media sentiment and combines its influence with the outbreak cases on the stock market sector returns of the US, Europe, and their main countries most affected by the pandemic This allows us to perceive the ranking impact of rationality or irrationality on country and sector stock returns This work applies a random effects robust panel estimation, with an M estimator This paper concludes that US returns are more sensitive to sentiment, and thus more prone to irrational factors than confirmed cases compared to Europe and that country factors influence the returns differently In Italy and Spain as the most punished countries in Europe apart from the UK, present sector indexes return more reactive to verified cases, or rationality, namely, tourism, real estate, and the automobile (this last one in Italy) The importance of this work resides in providing a new in depth analysis of irrational behavioral metrics among countries, which allows for comparison Moreover, it allows observing which sectors' and which countries' asset returns are most sensitive to rational or irrational expressions of events, allowing for arbitraging, financial planning for investors, decision makers, and academia on an in and out of pandemic context (c) 2020 LLC CPC Business Perspectives All rights reserved
Pedro Manuel Nogueira Reis Carlos Pinho
233182456
Characteristics of a COVID 19 confirmed case series in primary care (COVID 19 PC project) a cross sectional study
Background To estimate the prevalence of symptoms and signs related to a COVID 19 case series confirmed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for SARS CoV 2. Risk factors and the associated use of health services will also be analysed. Methods Observational, descriptive, retrospective case series study. The study was performed at two Primary Care Health Centres located in Madrid, Spain. The subjects studied were all PCR SARS CoV 2 confirmed cases older than 18 years, diagnosed from the beginning of the community transmission (March 13) until April 15, 2020. We collected sociodemographic, clinical, health service utilization and clinical course variables during the following months. All data was gathered by their own attending physician, and electronic medical records were reviewed individually. Statistical analysis: A descriptive analysis was carried out and a Poisson regression model was adjusted to study associated factors to Health Services use. Results Out of the 499 patients studied from two health centres, 55.1% were women and mean age was 58.2 (17.3) 25.1% were healthcare professionals. The most frequent symptoms recorded related to COVID 19 were cough (77.9% CI 95% 46.5 93.4) fever (77.7% CI95% 46.5 93.4) and dyspnoea (54.1% CI95% 46.6 61.4) 60.7% were admitted to hospital. 64.5% first established contact with their primary care provider before going to the hospital, with a mean number of 11.4 Healthcare Providers Encounters with primary care during all the follow up period. The number of visit encounters with primary care was associated with being male [IRR 1.072 (1.013, 1.134) disease severity {from mild respiratory infection [IRR 1.404 (1.095, 1.801) up to bilateral pneumonia [IRR 1.852 (1.437,2.386) and the need of a work leave [IRR 1.326 (1.244, 1.413] Conclusion Symptoms and risk factors in our case series are similar to those in other studies. There was a high number of patients with atypical unilateral or bilateral pneumonia. Care for COVID has required a high use of healthcare resources such as clinical encounters and work leaves.
BMC Family Practice
Eloisa Rogero-Blanco Vera Gonzalez-Garcia Rodrigo Medina Garcia Pilar Munoz-Molina Santiago Machin-Hamalainen Juan A Lopez-Rodriguez Abellan Lopez Francisco Ramon Barranco Apoita Marta Bernardo de Quiros Carlos Bernardo Corral Manuel O Sta Maria Bosom Velasco Marta Casado Alvaro Carlos Casado Sanz Maria Pilar C Sanchez Pilar Gonzalez Paulino De la Torre Buedo Eva Docavo Muniz Patricia Fernandez Diaz Raquel Ferrer Valeiras Teresa Garces Ranz Jose Damian Garcia Galeano Ma Celeste Gomez Ciriano Jorge G Ignacio Gomez Criado Maria Soledad Herranz Lopez Marta Calatayud Josefina Hurtado Gallar Jorge Jerez Fernandez Pablo Lopez Rodriguez Juan Antonio Machin Hamalainen Santiago Macias Rodriguez Jacinto Marin Becerra Maria Teresa Mateo Baca Fernandez Raquel Garcia Rodrigo Moldes Rodriguez Maria Alvarez de Sotomayor Paz Morcillo Cebolla Sara Pajares Box Purificacion Palacios Goncalves Lydia Preto Berdeja Guilherme Artur Prieto Orzando Asuncion Quintana Araencibia L Blanco M Eloisa Rossignoli Fernandez Tomas San Telesforo Navarro Maria Jose Sanchez Barreiro Sara Santos Franco Laura Vila i Torello Clara Ferrer Valeiras Teresa Rodriguez Ana Isabel B Sacristan Pedro Barranco Camino Maria C Garcia Isabel Diaz Calera M Concepcion Drak Hernandez Yasmin Fuentes Barona Juan Carlos G Calzado Gomez Leticia Fernandez M Esperanza Gonzalez Garcia Vera Horcajada Alocen Rocio Galan Maria Isabel M Miralles Molina Navarro Carnero Belen Perez Sanchez Francisco Carlos Saenz Garcia Baquero Isabel Torralba Garrido Vicente Ivan Zufia Garcia Francisco Javier Andrea Valcarcel Alonso
219102986
Did Congress trade ahead? Considering the reaction of US industries to COVID 19
Abstract During the ongoing COVID 19 pandemic in the US, there has been considerable media attention regarding several US legislators who traded stocks in late January through February 2020. The concern is that these legislators traded in anticipation of COVID 19 having a major impact on the financial markets, while publicly suggesting otherwise. We consider whether these legislator trades were in a time window, and of a nature, that would be consistent with trading ahead of the market. Towards this end, we assess the reactions of US industries to sudden COVID related news announcements, concomitantly with an analysis of levels of investor attention to COVID. Results suggest that, at an industry level, for legislator trading to be "ahead of the market" it needed to have been done prior to February 26, and involving the 15 industries we identify as having abnormal returns, especially medical and pharmaceutical products (positive) restaurants, hotels, and motels (negative) as well as services and utilities. These criteria are met by many of the legislator trades. Our results help to both parameterize concerns about this case of legislator trading; as well as provide insight into the reactions and expectations of investors toward COVID 19.
Finance Research Letters
John W Goodell Toan Luu Duc Huynh
226271804
[Miocarditis in Patients with COVID 19 Confirmed by Immunohistochemical]
Aim Despite the regular heart damage in patients with coronavirus pneumonia caused by SARS Cov 2, a possibility of developing lymphocytic myocarditis as a part of COVID 19 remains unsubstantiated. The aim of this study was to demonstrate a possibility of lymphocytic myocarditis and to study its morphological features in patients with the novel coronavirus infection (COVID 19) with a severe course.Material and methods Postmortem data were studied for 5 elderly patients (74.8+ 4.4 years; 3 men and 2 women) with the novel coronavirus infection and bilateral, severe polysegmental pneumonia (stage 3 4 by computed tomography) COVID 19 was diagnosed based on the typical clinical presentation and positive polymerase chain reaction test in nasopharyngeal swabs. All patients were treated in different hospitals repurposed for the treatment of patients with COVID 19. A standard histological study was performed with hematoxylin and eosin, toluidine blue, and van Gieson staining. Serial paraffin slices were studied immunohistochemically with antibodies to CD3, SD68, CD20, perforin, and toll like receptors (TLR) 4 and 9.Results In none of the cases, myocarditis was suspected clinically, added to the diagnosis or indicated as a possible cause of death. IHD and acute myocardial infarction were mentioned as error diagnoses not confirmed by the postmortem examination. The morphological examination of the heart identified signs of lymphocytic myocarditis consistent with Dallas criteria for this diagnosis. Myocardial infiltrate was characterized in detail, and a combined inflammatory damage of endocardium and pericardium was described. The immunohistochemical study with cell infiltrate typing confirmed the presence of CD3 positive T lymphocytes and the increased expression of TLR 4. A picture of coronaritis, including that with microvascular thrombosis, was found in all cases.Conclusion A possibility for development of lymphocytic viral myocarditis in COVID 19 was confirmed morphologically and immunohistochemically. Specific features of myocarditis in COVID 19 include the presence of coronaritis and a possible combination of myocarditis with lymphocytic endo and pericarditis.
Kardiologiia
E A Kogan Yuriy Sergeevich Berezovskiy Olga V Blagova A D Kukleva G A Bogacheva E V Kurilina D V Kalinin T R Bagdasaryan L A Semeyonova E M Gretsov Atadgan Ergeshov Victor V Fomin