French economy
221738605
Title PUBLIC PENSIONS IN AN OVERLAPPING GENERATIONS MODEL OF THE FRENCH ECONOMY Sub Title
Due to the likely ageing of the French population over the coming decades, the future financing of the current public, pay as you go pension system is quite worrisome. This article offers a framework for evaluating the long run economic consequences of various possible scenarios: it uses an overlappinggenerations, general equilibrium model of the French economy. After the description of the model, we present the results of two demographic variants, which clearly show that the current system would be sustainable in the long run only if population growth is positive. Finally the comparison of macroeconomic outcomes and the individual and social welfare analysis suggest that, if the forecast of a stagnating French population comes true, raising the legal retirement age would clearly dominate other alternatives such as curtailing benefits or switching to a pure capitalization scheme. Key words: computable overlapping generations models, public pensions, ageing. JEL classification: D58, H55. Some recent French studies (INSEE, 1990; Cornilleau and Sterdyniak, 1991; Liv re blanc 1991) have evaluated the prospective financial requirements of the French pension system. These studies rely on the official demographic projections (Dinh and Lab at, 1986) and strong assumptions about the future values of many macroeconomic variables. The increase in social contribution rates ensuring the financial equilibrium of the public pension fund is then calculated, but feedbacks from these institutional prospects to the economic equilibrium are ignored. Research Department OFCE2, Paris. University of Paris 13 and OFCE Paris. We are grateful to participants in the OFCE Seminar (Paris) the Cournot Seminar (University of Paris I) thelgg2 European Meeting of the Econometric Society (Brussels) the VII`b Annual Congress of the European Economic Association (Dublin) the Vth France American Economic Meeting on Economics of Ageing (Paris) the Fondation Liege University d'Europe Conference on Insurance and Pensions (Liege) the Seminaire d'economie monetaire Internationale (Paris) the 1993 Workshop on Policy Formulation in Interdependent Markets (Vienna) the 1993 International Symposium on Economic Modelling (Athens) and, especially, an anonymous referee, for helpful comments on earlier drafts. All remaining errors are the authors' responsibility. 2 69 quar d'Orsay 75340 Paris CEDEX 07 (France) Tel. (33 1) 44 18 54 23; Fax (33 1) 45 56 06 15. 3 12 place du Pantheon 75005 Paris (France)
LE Cacheux
216383306
Maritime transport in the French economy and its impact on air pollution: An input output analysis
Abstract This article studies the role of maritime transport in France on the domestic economy with respect to output and employment inducing effects through an Input Output approach. This is the first study ever made in this country for this industry, whereas the same approach has been applied in the past to many other countries (Korea, Ireland, China, Spain having a significant maritime industry, thus giving a basis for comparison. In addition, an original contribution to the literature is provided through the assessment of the environmental impact of shipping on air pollution through various greenhouse gas emissions (SO2, NOx, CO2, PM2.5, PM10) This assessment of direct and indirect gas emissions caused by water transport is particularly important at a time of more stringent regulations being implemented by the International Maritime Organization and the European Union (i.e. within and beyond the SECA Sulphur Emission Control Areas limits) to reduce the sulphur emissions of ships.
Corinne Bagoulla Patrice Guillotreau
229199489
Nowcasting GDP growth using data reduction methods: Evidence for the French economy
In this paper, we propose bridge models to nowcast French gross domestic product (GDP) quarterly growth rate. The bridge models, allowing economic interpretations, are specified by using a machine learning approach via Lasso based regressions and by an econometric approach based on an automatic general to specific procedure. These approaches allow to select explanatory variables among a large data set of soft data. A recursive forecast study is carried out to assess the forecasting performance. It turns out that the bridge models constructed using the both variable selection approaches outperform benchmark models and give similar performance in the out of sample forecasting exercise. Finally, the combined forecasts of these both approaches display interesting forecasting performance.
Olivier Darne Amelie Charles
211385827
ITER Is Heating up the French Economy
A large project like ITER can only generate an economic benefit if the host territory is prepared to welcome it and make the effort to meet its specific needs. This was well understood by the French government. However, some political intentions failed to be implemented (as shown in this chapter) The available data confirm that ITER is indeed boosting the host region's economic development. Private employment was very dynamic in this area after 2008, the first year of the financial crisis, whereas it was subject to a sudden slowdown everywhere else. Since 2007 the ITER Organization, Fusion for Energy, and Agence ITER France have awarded contracts worth a total of EUR5.7 billion. Over half of this has been awarded to French companies (contracts worth EUR3.2 billion) This is not really a surprise because major scientific installations like ITER create jobs directly and indirectly. They also stimulate employment in the local economic system. The examples of JET in Culham (United Kingdom) CERN (European Organization for Nuclear Research) in Geneva (Switzerland) and ESRF (European Synchrotron Radiation Facility) in Grenoble (France) have shown that constructing a very large facility has a positive and lasting impact on its surroundings. All these projects have been found to stimulate local development and attract new talent to the area. In their immediate neighborhoods they stimulate new social, industrial, economic, technological, and cultural dynamics. They also create synergies and boost new initiatives and structures such as high tech startups, laboratories, and service providers. Economic models for the period 2018 2030 predict that ITER should generate EUR15.9 billion in gross value added. Over the same period 72,400 job years should be created, mainly in the business services and industry sectors.
ITER: The Giant Fusion Reactor
Michel Claessens
229204029
HEALTH CRISIS (COVID 19) AND THE FRENCH ECONOMY
COVID 19 (Coronavirus) pandemic has created surge demand for essential healthcare equipment, Software along with the requirement for digital applications This health crisis has started with the applications of advanced manufacturing and digital information technologies witch used for distance education, for firms, and banking strategies Several analysts assume that this digitalization acceleration can be viewed as a proactive weapon to respond to the crisis The companies in French ahead with digitalization confirmed the validity of this notion
Salha Ben Salem
229563535
This Week in Europe: UKIP, Schulz resigns, French economy The New Federalist
Commission envisions larger post Brexit budget On Wednesday, EU budget commissioner Guenther Oettinger revealed a plan to increase the EU budget for 2021 2027, despite the UK's departure from the.
Radu Mihai Dumitrescu
224953013
The small firm in the French economy
P Y Barreyre
213855769
Regional science: economy and geography in France and French speaking countries
Correspondence Andre Torre, University Paris Saclay, INRA Agroparistech, UMR SAD APT, France. Email: torre@agroparistech.fr Abstract The objective of this paper is to assess the French speaking countries contributions to regional science since its creation in the 1950s. France, and other French speaking countries, very quickly adhered to the approach of the founding fathers of regional science. French language research developed for several years without maintaining major relations with the main streams that flow through regional science. However, the years 2000 and 2010 saw the emergence of streams of thought that strongly irrigate at the international level. The authors of this paper are part of this movement. Here we trace the origins and development of the French speaking contribution to regional sciences, while highlighting the originality of the French language approach. First, the question of academic and institutional contexts is discussed, with the role of the founders and the peculiar place of Journals and public institutions. Further sections analyse the main contributions coming from economics (local systems of production and innovation, innovative milieus and proximity analysis) and geography (regional development at a global scale, and urban systems and complexity) We conclude with crossdisciplinary contributions including intra urban organization and mobility, territorial governance and territorial development, as well as other approaches to the social sciences, in the contemporary issues of city and territorial governance.
Denise Pumain Andre Torre
230668029
The Belle Epoque of the railways: the Freycinet plan and its effects on the French population and economy
In this paper, I study the impact of the Freycinet plan (1879 1914) on the French population and economy,in the short run.The Freycinet plan was one of the major public works programmes launched by the young Third Republic in 1878 1879, which aimed to massively develop rail way connections across the French territory. I first show that, in accordance with there public an ideology at the time, the plan targeted less served and under privileged areas, there fore contributing to the unification of the French territory. Then, I use a difference in differences methodology to assess the impact of the plan on the French population. Since rail road construction is endogenous, I resort to an instrumental variable strategy focusing on the shortest route between the predefined end points of each train line. I find that gaining access to the rail way thanks to the Freycinet plan is associated with are lative increase in the population of connected municipalities by around 30% after the plan was implemented (in the early Interwar period),a result that with stands a series of robustness checks and is mainly explained by population displacement, from unconnected to connected municipalities. Eventually, I find evidence that additional connected municipalities thanks to the Freycinet plan did increase the GDP of French departements, in a non linear way, but had no effect on farming profits.
Olivier Lenoir
228838923
L'Exclusif in Theory and Practice: French Guiana and the Eighteenth Century Atlantic Economy
This paper documents the importance of French Guiana within the Modern World and the influence of this colony, considered as marginal, on the Atlantic trading networks of the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries. To reconstruct French Guiana's commercial network, a material culture analysis of six archaeological collections and records of the boats reaching Cayenne annually during the Ancien Regime were juxtaposed. Through the lens of microhistory, this method led to a revisitation of the Eurocentric economic theories of the Ancien Regime, notably the protectionist policy of l' Exclusif, to better appreciate how the decisions of French Guiana authorities outmaneuvered the imperial power and had a tangible impact on the Atlantic economy by operating outside of the economic precepts of mercantilism.
Catherine Losier