COVID-19 transmission
212758632
Temperature significant change COVID 19 Transmission in 429 cities
Background There is no evidence supporting that temperature changes COVID 19 transmission. Methods We collected the cumulative number of confirmed cases of all cities and regions affected by COVID 19 in the world from January 20 to February 4, 2020, and calculated the daily means of the average, minimum and maximum temperatures in January. Then, restricted cubic spline function and generalized linear mixture model were used to analyze the relationships. Results There were in total 24,232 confirmed cases in China and 26 overseas countries. In total, 16,480 cases (68.01% were from Hubei Province. The lgN rose as the average temperature went up to a peak of 8.72 and then slowly declined. The apexes of the minimum temperature and the maximum temperature were 6.70 and 12.42 respectively. The curves shared similar shapes. Under the circumstance of lower temperature, every 1 increase in average, minimum and maximum temperatures led to an increase of the cumulative number of cases by 0.83, 0.82 and 0.83 respectively. In the single factor model of the higher temperature group, every 1 increase in the minimum temperature led to a decrease of the cumulative number of cases by 0.86. Conclusion The study found that, to certain extent, temperature could significant change COVID 19 transmission, and there might be a best temperature for the viral transmission, which may partly explain why it first broke out in Wuhan. It is suggested that countries and regions with a lower temperature in the world adopt the strictest control measures to prevent future reversal.
medRxiv
Maojuan Wang Aili Jiang Li-juan Gong Lina Luo Wenbin Guo Chuyi Li Jing Zheng Chaoyong Li B Yang J Zeng Youping Chen K Z Zheng Hongyan Li
212657717
The COVID 19 social media infodemic
We address the diffusion of information about the COVID 19 with a massive data analysis on Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, Reddit and Gab. We analyze engagement and interest in the COVID 19 topic and provide a differential assessment on the evolution of the discourse on a global scale for each platform and their users. We fit information spreading with epidemic models characterizing the basic reproduction number \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin} 69pt} \begin{document}$R_0$\end{document}R0 for each social media platform. Moreover, we identify information spreading from questionable sources, finding different volumes of misinformation in each platform. However, information from both reliable and questionable sources do not present different spreading patterns. Finally, we provide platform dependent numerical estimates of rumors' amplification.
Scientific reports
Matteo Cinelli Walter Quattrociocchi Alessandro Galeazzi Carlo Michele Valensise Emanuele Brugnoli Ana Lucia Schmidt Paola Zola Fabiana Zollo Antonio Scala
212551954
Contact Transmission of COVID 19 in South Korea: Novel Investigation Techniques for Tracing Contacts
In the epidemiological investigation of an infectious disease, investigating, classifying, tracking, and managing contacts by identifying the patient's route are important for preventing further transmission of the disease. However, omissions and errors in previous activities can occur when the investigation is performed through only a proxy interview with the patient. To overcome these limitations, methods that can objectively verify the patient's claims (medical facility records, Global Positioning System, card transactions, and closed circuit television) were used for the recent ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 contact investigations in South Korea.
Osong public health and research perspectives
Ok Park Young Joon Park Shin Young Park Young-Man Kim Jieun Kim Jin Lee Eunmi Park DongWook Kim Byoung-Hak Jeon Boyeong Ryu Daehyeon Ko Eunyoung Kim Hwami Kim Hyeyoung Lee Jin Gwack Joongho Jo Jung Hyun Lee Junghee Hyun Jungwoo Kim Jae Kyung Park Sangeun Lee Seong Sun Kim Seung Hwan Shin Seung-woo Choi Taeyoung Kim Un-Na Kim Yeonhee Woo Yeowon Jin Yoon Suk Jang Youngjoon Park Minwoo Yum
212566833
[Advances on presymptomatic or asymptomatic carrier transmission of COVID 19]
COVID 19 is rapidly spreading. Patients in incubation period and healthy carriers are possible sources for transmission. However, such sources of infection cannot be effectively identified due to the symptoms absent. The research evidence is very lacking so far, although there are a few studies suggesting that presymptomatic or asymptomatic carrier may cause COVID 19 transmission. Nearly half of the literature is in the state of preprint without peer review. The question of "the degree to which presymptomatic or asymptomatic infections can transmit" is not fully understood. There is an urgent need to screen infected carriers in larger close contacts or in the general population, and assess their risk for transmission.
Zhonghua liu xing bing xue za zhi Zhonghua liuxingbingxue zazhi
W Gao L M Li
214600996
Transmission potential and severity of COVID 19 in South Korea
Abstract Objectives Since the first case of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID 19) identified on Jan 20, 2020 in South Korea, the number of cases rapidly increased, resulting in 6,284 cases including 42 deaths as of March 6, 2020. To examine the growth rate of the outbreak, we aimed to present the first study to report the reproduction number of COVID 19 in South Korea. Methods The daily confirmed cases of COVID 19 in South Korea were extracted from publicly available sources. By using the empirical reporting delay distribution and simulating the generalized growth model, we estimated the effective reproduction number based on the discretized probability distribution of the generation interval. Results We identified four major clusters and estimated the reproduction number at 1.5 (95% CI: 1.4 1.6) In addition, the intrinsic growth rate was estimated at 0.6 (95% CI: 0.6, 0.7) and the scaling of growth parameter was estimated at 0.8 (95% CI: 0.7, 0.8) indicating sub exponential growth dynamics of COVID 19. The crude case fatality rate is higher among males (1.1% compared to females (0.4% and increases with older age. Conclusions Our results indicate early sustained transmission of COVID 19 in South Korea and support the implementation of social distancing measures to rapidly control the outbreak.
International Journal of Infectious Diseases
Eunha Shim Amna Tariq Wongyeong Choi Yiseul Lee Gerardo Chowell
211099356
The reproductive number of COVID 19 is higher compared to SARS coronavirus
Teaser: Our review found the average R0 for 2019 nCoV to be 3.28, which exceeds WHO estimates of 1.4 to 2.5.
Journal of travel medicine
Yuanfang Liu Alberto Gayle Annelies Wilder-Smith Joacim Rocklov
212410045
2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID 19) Outbreak: A Review of the Current Literature
DOI: 10.14744/ejmo.2020.12220
Ahmet Riza Sahin
211677888
A Time Dependent SIR Model for COVID 19 With Undetectable Infected Persons
In this paper, we conduct mathematical and numerical analyses for COVID 19. To predict the trend of COVID 19, we propose a time dependent SIR model that tracks the transmission and recovering rate at time <inline formula><tex math notation="LaTeX"$t$/tex math>/inline formula> Using the data provided by China authority, we show our one day prediction errors are almost less than <inline formula><tex math notation="LaTeX"$3\/tex math>/inline formula> The turning point and the total number of confirmed cases in China are predicted under our model. To analyze the impact of the undetectable infections on the spread of disease, we extend our model by considering two types of infected persons: detectable and undetectable infected persons. Whether there is an outbreak is characterized by the spectral radius of a <inline formula><tex math notation="LaTeX"$2 \times 2$/tex math>/inline formula> matrix. If <inline formula><tex math notation="LaTeX"$R_0>1$/tex math>/inline formula> then the spectral radius of that matrix is greater than 1, and there is an outbreak. We plot the phase transition diagram of an outbreak and show that there are several countries on the verge of COVID 19 outbreaks on Mar. 2, 2020. To illustrate the effectiveness of social distancing, we analyze the independent cascade model for disease propagation in a configuration random network. We show two approaches of social distancing that can lead to a reduction of the effective reproduction number <inline formula><tex math notation="LaTeX"$R_e$/tex math>/inline formula>
IEEE Transactions on Network Science and Engineering
Yi-Cheng Chen Ping-En Lu Cheng-Shang Chang
211200579
Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against importations of COVID 19: a modelling study
Summary Background The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID 19) epidemic has spread from China to 25 countries. Local cycles of transmission have already occurred in 12 countries after case importation. In Africa, Egypt has so far confirmed one case. The management and control of COVID 19 importations heavily rely on a country's health capacity. Here we evaluate the preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against their risk of importation of COVID 19. Methods We used data on the volume of air travel departing from airports in the infected provinces in China and directed to Africa to estimate the risk of importation per country. We determined the country's capacity to detect and respond to cases with two indicators: preparedness, using the WHO International Health Regulations Monitoring and Evaluation Framework; and vulnerability, using the Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index. Countries were clustered according to the Chinese regions contributing most to their risk. Findings Countries with the highest importation risk (ie, Egypt, Algeria, and South Africa) have moderate to high capacity to respond to outbreaks. Countries at moderate risk (ie, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Sudan, Angola, Tanzania, Ghana, and Kenya) have variable capacity and high vulnerability. We identified three clusters of countries that share the same exposure to the risk originating from the provinces of Guangdong, Fujian, and the city of Beijing, respectively. Interpretation Many countries in Africa are stepping up their preparedness to detect and cope with COVID 19 importations. Resources, intensified surveillance, and capacity building should be urgently prioritised in countries with moderate risk that might be ill prepared to detect imported cases and to limit onward transmission. Funding EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation Horizon 2020, Agence Nationale de la Recherche.
The Lancet
Marius Gilbert Giulia Pullano Francesco Pinotti Eugenio Valdano Chiara Poletto Pierre-Yves Boelle Eric D'Ortenzio Yazdan Yazdanpanah Serge P Eholie Mathias Altmann Bernardo Gutierrez Moritz U G Kraemer Vittoria Colizza
211556286
Responding to Covid 19 A Once in a Century Pandemic?
Responding to Covid 19 Bill Gates writes that in any crisis, leaders have two equally important responsibilities: solve the immediate problem and keep it from happening again. In the case of the Co.
The New England journal of medicine
Bill Gates