covid real estate
221820622
A First Look at the Impact of COVID 19 on Commercial Real Estate Prices: Asset Level Evidence
Abstract This is the first paper to examine how the COVID 19 shock transmitted from the asset markets to capital markets. Using a novel measure of the exposure of commercial real estate (CRE) portfolios to the increase in the number of COVID 19 cases (GeoCOVID) we find a one standard deviation increase in GeoCOVID on day t 1 is associated with a 0.24 to 0.93 percentage points decrease in abnormal returns over 1 to 3 day windows. There is substantial variation across property types. Local and state policy interventions helped to moderate the negative return impact of GeoCOVID. However, there is little evidence that reopenings affected the performance of CRE markets.
Review of Asset Pricing Studies
David C Ling Chongyu Wang Tingyu Zhou
225716020
A First Look at the Impact of COVID 19 on Commercial Real Estate Prices: Asset Level Evidence
This is the first paper to examine the transmission of an asset market shock to the capital markets during the COVID 19 pandemic. Using a novel measure of the exposure of commercial real estate portfolios (CRE) to the growth in COVID 19 (GeoCOVID) we find a one standard deviation increase in GeoCOVID on day t 1 is associated with a 0.24 to 0.93 percentage points decrease in abnormal returns over one to three day windows. There is substantial variation across property types. Local and state policy interventions helped to moderate the negative return impact of GeoCOVID. However, there is little evidence that reopenings affected the performance of CRE markets.
David C Ling Chongyu Wang Tingyu Zhou
221140528
Possible impacts of COVID 19 outbreak on real estate sector and possible changes to adopt: A situation analysis and general assessment on Turkish perspective
Abstract In this study, the possible effects and impacts of the COVID 19 outbreak on real estate development and management processes were examined by making an evaluation and an insight on administrative and media records. Crises and global effects of pandemics were described as an unforeseen event which have negatively affect project development in the real estate sector, sales operations of existing real estate, costs estimates, values and rates of return of existing real estate sector in general. The inception of new policy and precaution measures, especially travel bans and restrictions on domestic and foreign tourists impacts the tourism sector and causes its revenue to decrease, the narrowing of the volume of transactions in real estate such as retail facilities, office and residence transactions, increased vacancy rate in hotels, the additional measures taken due to the pandemic causes the significant increase in operating costs, decrease of rent collection creates losses due to declining in demand, net operating income and investment value also tends to decline. Change in business orientations, working and living conditions necessitates a review of planning, project development, marketing strategies, use and management processes of settlements. This study has It is observed that Turkish the government wants to revive the real estate markets only with the increase of sales of existing residences and businesses and tourism oriented measures (such as a hygiene certificate) but it is clear that the measures taken for radical change in the long run are still inadequate. It should be emphasized that there is not yet enough work done to estimate how long the impact will continue and what is its financial burden will be in the years after March 2020, when the first case of the outbreak has been reported.
Journal of Urban Management
Harun Tanrivermis
225550807
COVID 19 Infects Real Estate Markets: Short and Mid Run Effects on Housing Prices in Campania Region (Italy)
The COVID 19 (also called "SARS CoV 2" pandemic is causing a dramatic reduction in consumption, with a further drop in prices and a decrease in workers' per capita income. To this will be added an increase in unemployment, which will further depress consumption. The real estate market, as for other productive and commercial sectors, in the short and mid run, will not tend to move independently from the context of the aforementioned economic variables. The effect of pandemics or health emergencies on housing markets is an unexplored topic in international literature. For this reason, firstly, the few specific studies found are reported and, by analogy, studies on the effects of terrorism attacks and natural disasters on real estate prices are examined too. Subsequently, beginning from the real estate dynamics and economic indicators of the Campania region before the COVID 19 emergency, the current COVID 19 scenario is defined (focusing on unemployment, personal and household income, real estate judicial execution, real estate dynamics) Finally, a real estate pricing model is developed, evaluating the short and mid run COVID 19 effects on housing prices. To predict possible changes in the mid run of real estate judicial execution and real estate dynamics, the economic model of Lotka Volterra (also known as the "prey predator" model) was applied. Results of the model indicate a housing prices drop of 4.16% in the short run and 6.49% in the mid run (late 2020 early 2021)
Vincenzo del Giudice Pierfrancesco De Paola Francesco Del Giudice
225421448
The future of sustainable real estate investments in a post COVID 19 world
The purpose of this paper is to suggest that property investors should engage with governments to influence outcomes. Global collaboration is required from the real estate investment community, working closely with governments and legislators, to provide a clear road map to zero carbon emissions. Covid 19 has shown how quickly governments around the world can react with draconian responses, including widespread lockdowns, when faced with an existential threat. What bigger existential threat is there than climate change?,Personal viewpoint from general research.,Three pillars of likely government and legislative interventions are identified; namely, increased and enhanced energy regulation and carbon pricing to force a rapid switch to green energy sources for buildings; an enhanced role for Energy Performance Certificates, standardised methodologies and strict enforcement; and mandatory reporting of financial and physical climate risks based on the Financial Stability Board's Task Force on Climate related Financial Disclosures. It is suggested that property investors should now engage with governments to influence outcomes.,Personal viewpoint to encourage greater involvement of the real estate investment community in governmental and regulatory decision making.
John R Pike
219526449
Volatility and the Cross Section of Real Estate Equity Returns during COVID 19
This paper uses the global systemic shock associated with the outbreak of the novel coronavirus COVID 19 to assess the risk return relationship in the cross section of real estate equities internationally. I construct a global COVID 19 risk factor to capture the risk exposure of individual stocks to the pandemic. The paper also assesses the low risk effect puzzle in real estate stocks. I find that the average firm sensitivity to the COVID 19 risk factor increases from close to zero prior to the pandemic to 0.6 during the pandemic with large variations across countries and sectors. Fama MacBeth regressions reveal evidence for a low risk effect both through market and COVID 19 risks which is not be associated with behavioral biases but rather with financial constraints. Consistent with recent research, the findings in this paper suggest that investors perceive the shock caused by the COVID 19 to be amplified by financial channels.
Stanimira Milcheva
231773785
The COVID 19 pandemic impact upon housing brokers' workflow and their clients' attitude: Real estate market in Krakow
Objective: The objective of the article is to assess the impact of COVID 19 pandemic upon the workflow of real estate brokers and their clients' attitude as exemplified by the real estate market in Krakow Research Design Methods: For the purpose of assessing the impact of COVID 19 pandemic upon the aspects of the real estate market under consideration, a survey questionnaire with open ended questions was distributed amongst all the real estate brokers associated in the Malopolska Real Estate Brokers Association Findings: The findings indicate that the COVID 19 pandemic has had a considerable impact upon the workflow of real estate brokers and their clients' attitude The real estate brokers began to render online services to a greater extent, thus they intensified the use of digital technologies in running their businesses On the other hand, their clients like landlords in numerous cases changed their strategies, i e from short term rental into the long term one In turn, tenants began to demand lower rents and higher standards of apartments Implications Recommendations: The conducted studies have made it plausible to state that the COVID 19 pandemic has had a significant impact upon the real estate market However, it bears noting that we do not conclude to what extent those changes are permanent, therefore the need for further studies Contribution Value Added: This article counts among the first ones in the world to address the issue of COVID 19's impact upon the housing market (c) 2020, Cracow University of Economics All rights reserved
Bartlomiej Marona Mateusz Tomal
226965508
Financialization, real estate and COVID 19 in the UK
Abstract In the UK, financialization has transformed many areas of the economy, including the housing market. The deregulation of financial markets that took place from the 1980s onwards, combined with the privatization of social housing, has transformed UK real estate from an ordinary good, insulated to some extent from consumer and financial markets, into a valuable financial asset. The financialization of real estate has had a largely negative impact on the UK's housing market, the wider economy and individual communities; wealth inequality, financial instability, gentrification and homelessness have all increased as the role of the financial sector in UK property has increased. The financial crisis only accelerated many of these trends as distressed real estate was bought up by investors in its wake, and as loose monetary policy pushed up house prices in the period after the crisis. The COVID 19 pandemic is only likely to exacerbate these issues; the UK is sleepwalking into a potential evictions crisis, and ongoing loose monetary policy is likely to prevent a significant and necessary correction in house prices over the long term.
Community Development Journal
Grace Blakeley
231184230
Impacts and Risk Management of COVID 19 Pandemic on Real Estate Supply Chain
Industry experts internationally have raised concerns regarding the significant risk posed to the real estate sector by the unprecedented global pandemic of Covid 19. The influence of Covid 19 has been swift, and with emerging wide ranging consequences. The stay at home policy has stagnated real estate and other economic activities. Many lenders, buyers and estate agents are evaluating the threats and opportunities in their operations. Developers face stoppages resulting from the impact and inherent risks of the stay at home policies on the built environment, and real estate chain. Return on investments initiated, but not completed due to the pandemic negative effect has resulted in a financial crisis. Similarly, there are fears that income streams, such as rental incomes, and mortgage payments, which are already being affected negatively in the short term may worsen in the long term due to economic recession. The purpose of the study, therefore, is to identify any COVID 19 pandemic impact, its mitigation for the tenant, and across the supply chain within the real estate sector in the United Kingdom. The study is based on a qualitative descriptive research design. The required data has been collected mainly through an extensive review of the available secondary sources. Occupiers' Sentiment Index and past recessionary financial performance were used to provide a wide ranging insight into crisis effects on the macroeconomy of the property market. Consequently, two procedural approaches are utilised; firstly, the economic recovery scenario V, U, W and L shapes, are analysed to determine the potential recovery pattern of supply chains across the real estate sector. Secondly, the use of a legal context to mitigate the pandemic risk across the sector. The findings reveal an emerging dynamic trend, rooted in contract clause revamping, as suggestive of a mitigation approach by the industry. The significance of the study provides a robust platform on which a long term response to any future unprecedented pandemic within the real estate built environment can be delivered.
Ikechukwu Uchehara Mansur Hamma-adama Kwadwo Ayeh Obiri Naeimeh Jafarifar David Moore
226541842
The Impact of Covid 19 Pandemic on the Real Estate Market Development Projects
Received: 5 June 2020 Revised: 15 June 2020 Accepted: 22 June 2020 Abstract: During the Covid 19 pandemic, there were changes in the way businesses operate around the world. Market participants have focused their business on business by applying egovernment services. The impact of Covid 19 was also felt in the real estate market development projects. The paper gives a parallel overview of the real estate market in China, the USA and Europe. An overview of data from the real estate market in Serbia is given on the basis of data from the Republic Geodetic Authority. Regardless of the fact that the virus pandemic appeared in different time periods in the world, it can be concluded that the indicators of changes in the real estate market indicate the same trend of the behaviour of the indicators.
Marina Jovanovic-Milenkovic Ana Vasic Durkovic Darko Vucetic Borko Draskovic