"internal migration" AND "climate change"
203312491
The impact of climate change on internal migration in Brazil
Business as usual climate change forecasts point to sharp temperature rises and agriculture yield losses in Brazil. We study the impact of these changes on internal migration and population distribution. We employ a spatial equilibrium model in which the climate shapes workers' locational choices through the usual amenity value channel and the novel indirect channel via agriculture wages. Our simulations reveal that migration rates are 5.9% higher, and that half million more people migrate inter regionally under future climate conditions. Furthermore, climate change will likely exacerbate the country's regional inequalities, as the most developed regions gain population and welfare while the least developed regions lose.
Jaqueline Oliveira Paula Carvalho Pereda
159357394
Facing Climate Change: What Drives Internal Migration Decisions in the Karst Rocky Regions of Southwest China
Global climate change and its influence on human migration have caused heated debates. There is no consensus about the role of environmental change in shaping migration decisions. To amass more evidence and develop a deeper understanding of the relations between the environment and migration, this paper seeks to evaluate the importance of various drivers (economic, social, political, demographic, and environmental drivers) and determine the internal mechanism in the decision process. The Likert scale was used as the tool for measuring each respondent's perception of the drivers, and the within group interrater agreement index was used to express the survey data and to select the actual driving forces. As a result, economic, social, and political factors were strong forces that promoted migration directly, while demographic and environmental factors were moderate or weak forces that promoted migration indirectly. The migrants' core consideration was to effectively reduce family risks and sustain their livelihoods by moving to a destination to improve their household income, keep their original social networks, and obtain housing allowances from the local government. Land degradation and meteorological disasters were rooted in the vulnerability and risks of a family, and these factors indirectly influenced the people's decisions by affecting the socioeconomic drivers. We concluded that isolating the environmental drivers from other drivers underlying migration decisions is difficult. Additionally, the internal mechanism indicated that both environmental and non environmental factors all have an impact on choice in different ways. Future policies should be aimed at increasing sustainable livelihoods and the social resilience of migrant families at a personal level, balancing the development levels of the original locations and destinations, and strengthening international cooperation to reduce the negative effects of climate change at the regional level.
Sustainability
Guo-qing Shi Qiulong Lyu Ziheng Shangguan Tianhe Jiang
133034751
Climate change, internal migration, and the future spatial distribution of population: a case study of New Zealand
This paper evaluates the impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of population in New Zealand, focusing on the effects of climate on internal migration dynamics. Specifically, a gravity modelling framework is first used to identify climate variables that have statistically significant associations with internal migration. The gravity model is then embedded within a population projection model to evaluate the effect of climate scenarios on regional populations. Of the climate variables, only surface radiation in the origin exhibits a significant association with internal migration. Including this variable in the population projection model makes a small difference to the regional population distribution, and the difference between different climate scenarios is negligible. Overall, the results suggest that, while statistically significant, climate change in the form of changes in the distribution of the weather will have a negligible effect on the population distribution of New Zealand at the regional level. These null results probably reflect the high capacity for adaptation to climate change available to a developed country.
Michael P Cameron
158576663
No Place to Hide: The Impact of Climate Change on Internal Migration Across Six Sub Saharan Countries
Drawing from 17 rounds of harmonised census data, this paper explores the link between climate variability and internal migration across six Sub Saharan African countries. This study uses high resolution precipitation and temperature data to construct two sets of measures capturing climate variability, the intensity of climate anomalies and the exposure to climate extremes. Two complementary hypotheses are tested: (1) whether climate variability increases the likelihood to migrate across provinces, and (2) if this effect is more pronounced for urban bound migration. Overall, our analysis yields mixed conclusions. First, our results indicate that prolonged exposure to climate extremes such as droughts and cold snaps discourages migration across provinces. Second, most of the climate measures decrease the odds of urban bound migration, therefore suggesting the existence of an immobilising effect through which climate change lowers the resources needed to finance the cost of migrating. Notwithstanding the limitations of this study, this research provides the first evidence of the climate inhibitor mechanism of internal migration across a large geographical area of relatively poor Sub Saharan countries.
Fanny Teppe
217158223
Impacts of climate change on internal migration in South Africa through an inferential network analysis approach
Tingyin Xiao Michael Oppenheimer X H He Marina Mastrorillo
154123995
Climate change and internal migration intentions in the forest savannah transition zone of Ghana
Migration is at the centre of demographic research on the population environment nexus. Increasing concerns about the impacts of environmental events on human population are fuelling interest on the relationship between migration and environmental change. Using data from the Climate Change Collective Learning and Observatory Network Ghana project, we employ binary logistic regression to examine migration intentions of households in response to major community stressors including climate related ones. The results indicate that the type of community stressor that affects households most does not differentiate migration intentions in Ghana's forest savannah transition zone: Even though the majority of the respondents mentioned climate related events as the stressor that affects them the most, such events do not appear to directly explain migration intentions. However, socio demographic factors such as age, household size and current migration status are significant predictors of migration intentions, with younger household heads, heads of migrant households and heads of smaller households being relatively more likely to have migration intentions than other household heads. We conclude that migration drivers are multifaceted and deserve further research because even in areas with perceived environmental stress, climate related events may not be the primary motivation for migration intentions.
Mumuni Abu Samuel Nii Ardey Codjoe Jon Sward
134831052
Is Internal Migration A Way to Cope With Climate Change? Evidence From Egypt
In this study, we examine the effect of extreme weather events on migration among governorates in Egypt using migration gravity models and data from the 1996 and 2006 Population and Housing Census. We find that low or high temperature and precipitation does not affect the migration of people. Instead, people are considering the weather in destination areas to decide where they should migrate. The number of months with temperature below the five percentiles the distribution of monthly temperature of destination governorates strongly increases in migration. An additional month with low temperature increases the number of in migrants by 9.98 percent. For the elderly, they also avoid a governorate with more months of high temperatures. One additional month with temperature above the 95 percentile reduces in the destination governorates the number of old migrants by 8.15 percent.
Adel Ben Youssef Mohamed Arouri Cuong Viet Nguyen
133757407
Climate change and internal migration in Brazil: the role of geography and road infrastructure
Maggie Y Liu
129701093
Is Climate Change Likely to Lead to Higher Net Internal Migration? The Republic of Yemen's Case
Concerns abound about the potential impact of climate change on future migration, especially in the Middle East and North Africa, one of the regions that is likely to suffer the most from climate change. Yet it is not clear whether so far climate patterns have been a key driver of internal migration in countries such as Yemen, despite the pressures created by water scarcity. By combining data from Yemen's latest census and a weather database as well as other geographic information, we analyze the determinants of past net internal migration rates. Next, using future climate change scenarios, we predict the potential impact of rising temperatures on future net internal migration rates. The results suggest that while climate does have an impact on net internal migration rates, this impact is limited, so that on the basis of past patterns of climate and migration, rising temperature may not have a large impact on future net internal migration.
George Joseph Quentin Wodon Andrea Liverani Brian Blankespoor
16551360
Climate Change, Crop Yields, and Internal Migration in the United States
We investigate the link between agricultural productivity and net migration in the United States using a county level panel for the most recent period of 1970 2009. In rural counties of the Corn Belt, we find a statistically significant relationship between changes in net outmigration and climate driven changes in crop yields, with an estimated semi elasticity of about 0.17, i.e. a 1% decrease in yields leads to a 0.17% net reduction of the population through migration. This effect is primarily driven by young adults. We do not detect a response for senior citizens, nor for the general population in eastern counties outside the Corn Belt. Applying this semi elasticity to predicted yield changes under the B2 scenario of the Hadley III model, we project that, holding other factors constant, climate change would on average induce 3.7% of the adult population (ages 15 59) to leave rural counties of the Corn Belt in the medium term (2020 2049) compared to the 1960 1989 baseline, with the possibility of a much larger migration response in the long term (2077 2099) Since there is uncertainty about future warming, we also present projections for a range of uniform climate change scenarios in temperature or precipitation.
Shuaizhang Feng Michael Oppenheimer Wolfram Schlenker