helder ferreira do vale
152630931
Credibilidade do regime de metas para inflacao no Brasil
This paper makes an empirical analysis of the relation between credibility and management of the interest rate for monetary policy in Brazil after the adoption of inflation targeting. The relation between the credibility (measured by several indices) and the basic interest rate for monetary policy is verified under two perspectives: the target defined by Central Bank of Brazil's Monetary Policy Committee, and the rate which is prevalent in the financial market. The results confirm the hypothesis that a high credibility requires minor variations in the interest rate for the control of inflation after the adoption of inflation targeting. REFERENCIAS AGENOR, P. TAYLOR, M. P. Testing for credibility effects. IMF Staff Papers, v. 39, n. 3, p. 545571, Sep. 1993. AKERLOF, G. A. DICKENS, W. T. PERRY, G. L. The macroeconomics of low inflation. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, n. 1, p. 1 76, 1996. BACEN Banco Central do Brasil. Carta aberta ao Ministro de Estado da Fazenda. 2002, 2003, 2004. Disponivel em: Acessado em: 20 de novembro de 2005. Helder_Gustavo 2.pmd 26/09/07, 15:09 270 271 Credibilidade do regime de metas para inflacao no Brasil ______. Series temporais. Disponivel em: Acessado em: 1 de abril de 2007. BRUNILLA, A. LAHDENPERA, H. Inflation targets: principal issues and practical implementation. In: HALDANE, A. G. (Ed. Targeting inflation. Bank of England, 1995. p. 119 134. CECCHETTI, S. G. KRAUSE, S. Central bank structure, policy efficiency and macroeconomic performance: exploring empirical relationships. Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, v. 84, n. 4, p. 47 59, Jul. Aug. 2002. CUKIERMAN, A. MELTZER, A. H. A theory of ambiguity, credibility, and inflation under discretion and asymmetric information. Econometrica, v. 54, n. 5, p. 1.099 1.128, Sep. 1986. DAVIDSON, R. MACKINNON, J. G. Estimation and inference in econometrics. New York: Oxford Economic Press, 1993. DRAZEN, A. Political economy in macroeconomics. New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 2000. MENDONCA, H. F. de. Metas para a taxa de cambio, agregados monetarios e inflacao. Revista de Economia Politica, v. 22, n. 1 (85) p. 34 52, jan. mar. 2002. ______. Mensurando a credibilidade do regime de metas inflacionarias no Brasil. Revista de Economia Politica, v. 24, n. 3 (95) p. 344 350, jul. set. 2004. ______. Towards credibility from inflation targeting: the Brazilian experience. Applied Economics, 2006. Forthcoming. ELLIOT, G. ROTHENBERG, T. J. STOCK, J. H. Efficient tests for an autoregressive unit root. Econometrica, v. 64, p. 813 826, 1996. FAUST, J. SVENSSON, L. E. O. Transparency and credibility: monetary policy with unobservable goals. NBER, Mar. 1998 (Working paper, n. 6.452) GARCIA, M. G. P. Meia decada de metas para a inflacao. Valor Economico, 05/08/2004. GUJARATI, D. N. Econometria basica. Sao Paulo: Makron Books, 2000. IPEA Instituto de Pesquisa Economica Aplicada. Base de dados macroeconomicos Ipeadata. Brasilia: Ipea. Disponivel em: Acessado em: 1 de novembro de 2005. NAHON, B. F. MEURER, R. A relacao entre a credibilidade do Banco Central e a inflacao no Brasil do regime de metas inflacionarias. In: ENCONTRO DE ECONOMIA DA REGIAO SUL. 8. Porto Alegre, 22 23 de setembro de 2005. Anais eletronicos. Porto Alegre, Anpec Sul, 2005. Disponivel em: ORPHANIDES, A. WIELAND, V. Price stability and monetary policy effectiveness when nominal interest rates are bounded at zero. Federal Reserve Board, 1998 (Working paper) SICSU, J. Expectativas inflacionarias no regime de metas de inflacao: uma analise preliminar do caso brasileiro. Economia Aplicada, v. 6, n. 4, p. 703 711, 2002. SVENSSON, L. E. O. How should monetary policy be conducted in an Era of Price Stability? NBER, Feb. 2000 (Working paper, n. 7.516) (Originais recebidos em marco de 2007. Revistos em junho de 2007. Helder_Gustavo 2.pmd 26/09/07, 15:09 271 pesquisa e planejamento economico ppe v.37 n.2 ago 2007 272
Helder Ferreira de Mendonca Gustavo Jose de Guimaraes e Souza
155273139
Theorizing institutional changes: understanding decentralization and federalization in Brazil, Spain and South Africa
In light of the existing theories about institutional change, this paper seeks to advance a common framework to understand the unfolding of decentralization and federalization in three countries: Brazil, Spain, and South Africa. Although in different continents, these three countries witnessed processes after their respective transitions to democracy that transferred administrative and fiscal authority to their regions (decentralization) and vertically distributed political and institutional capacity (federalization) This paper attempts to explain how institutional changes prompted a shift of power and authority towards regional governments by looking at internal sources of change within the intergovernmental arena in the three countries. This analysis is organized around two propositions: that once countries transit to democracy under all encompassing constitutions there are high incentives for institutional change, and that under a bargained intergovernmental interaction among political actors subnational political elites are able to advance their interests incrementally. In short, through a common framework this paper will explain the evolving dynamics of intergovernmental dynamics in three countries.
Helder Ferreira do Vale
153924963
Local Government Reforms in Federal Brazil, India and South Africa: A Comparative Overview
This article examines the changes at the local level of government that have been taking place in Brazil, India and South Africa for the past thirty years as a result of complex federal decision making processes. I summarize the most important federal traits of these countries and identify the role of key institutions behind the fiscal, political and administrative changes in local governments. The article draws on the institutional processes to dissect the anatomy of local government reforms in these countries and concludes that although the changes in local government structures and powers have been taken against the background of transition to democracy and/or democratic deepening, the scope of change in local government varied.
Helder Ferreira do Vale
132334267
The Mosaic of Local Governments in Post Apartheid South Africa: Municipal Asymmetries and Spatial Inequality
Do Vale and Cameron offer an account of the sweeping process of decentralization in post apartheid South Africa. The chapter identifies the main characteristics of local asymmetries in South Africa that emerged out of decentralization and explores the institutional dynamics behind these asymmetries. The findings show that the post apartheid decentralization framework has financially and institutionally enabled mainly the metropolitan municipalities, creating space inequality within the local system of government in South Africa. The chapter also demonstrates through a case study of housing policies in Cape Town and Johannesburg that services vary across metros of different provinces with similar fiscal and administrative capabilities. The chapter concludes that there are several institutional factors behind the creation of an asymmetric regime of place equality in South Africa.
Helder Ferreira do Vale Robert Cameron
143347383
Temporality, causality and trajectories: comparative historical analysis in social and political sciences
The article closely examines the comparative methodology proposed under the "Comparative Historical Analysis" (CHA) approach. The purpose of the article is to highlight the advantages gained with the application of this comparative methodological approach in the interpretation of current complex events. In doing so, the article provides concrete guidelines on how to apply this approach to enhance historical comparisons. In attempting to accomplish these goals, the article pursues three tasks. First, it shows how historical comparisons are useful for the identification of the patterns, mechanisms and dynamics behind complex process in social and political sciences. Second, the article explains the methodological advantages of using CHA in complex historical processes and exploring some methodological innovations. And lastly, the article applies the CHA approach to two current events: the emergence of the armed group "Islamic State" and the Ukrainian Russian territorial dispute. The article concludes that CHA provides an innovative comparative framework to understand complex historical process across countries.
Helder Ferreira do Vale
153991678
Comparing and Measuring Subnational Autonomy across Three Continents
The literature on comparative local government has been primarily focused on measurement of local governments while it has fallen short in theorizing on diverse structures, dynamics, and functioning of local governments throughout the world. This article posits that large data sets measuring local government indicators help to accumulate knowledge but fail to identify and explain the main dynamics behind local governments activities and processes. Attempting to increase comparability of local government across different regions, this article builds on qualitative indicators of decentralization in three sub regions South America, South Asia and Southern Africa and assesses the evolution of subnational autonomy in the most decentralized countries in these sub regions; namely, Brazil, India and South Africa.
Helder Ferreira do Vale
153563999
Mensuracao E Analise Da Credibilidade Do Regime De Metas Inflacionarias No Brasil
This paper makes an empirical analysis of the relation between credibility and management of the interest rate for monetary policy in Brazil after the adoption of inflation targeting. The relation between the credibility (measured by several indices) and the basic interest rate for monetary policy is verified under two perspectives: the target defined by Central Bank of Brazil's Monetary Policy Committee, and the rate which is prevalent in the financial market. The results confirm the hypothesis that a high credibility requires minor variations in the interest rate for the control of inflation after the adoption of inflation targeting.
Gustavo Jose de Guimaraes e Souza Helder Ferreira de Mendonca
142953639
Uma experiencia de desenvolvimento metodologico para avaliacao de programas: o modelo logico do Programa Segundo Tempo
Em 2005, a Comissao de Monitoramento e Avaliacao, orgao colegiado de composicao interministerial e coordenado pela Secretaria de Planejamento e Investimentos Estrategicos do Ministerio do Planejamento Orcamento e Gestao (SPI/MP) demandou aos integrantes de sua Camara Tecnica o desenvolvimento de uma proposta metodologica para avaliacao de programas do Plano Plurianual (PPA) Na ocasiao, foi enfatizada a necessidade de uma proposta de avaliacao menos complexa e de menor custo, a qual deveria preceder a contratacao de avaliacoes de maior profundidade. A metodologia, a ser aplicada a qualquer tipo de programa governamental, deveria estar focada no aperfeicoamento de aspectos relacionados ao desenho e ao gerenciamento de programas, mas com potencial para, ao mesmo tempo, sistematizar a demanda por avaliacoes de resultados das acoes do governo. Para o desenvolvimento da proposta, tomou se como fundamento a metodologia de Exame de Avaliabilidade, de Joseph S. Wholey. Esta foi inicialmente concebida enquanto uma pre avaliacao para se verificar se um programa esta desenhado para ser gerenciado por resultados, e identificar quais as mudancas necessarias para que isto ocorra. Uma etapa crucial da metodologia e a construcao do modelo logico de resultados, que cumpre o papel de explicitar a teoria do programa e aferir sua qualidade, verificando se esta bem desenhado e se apresenta um plano plausivel de alcance de resultados. Na experiencia de desenvolvimento metodologico aqui relatada foram acrescentados novos aportes a teoria do modelo logico, tal como concebida por Wholey e outros autores norte americanos. Esta proposta de construcao de modelo logico desenvolvida pelo Ipea foi incorporada pelo MP, inicialmente em carater experimental, em 2007, em 20 programas finalisticos do PPA. Em 2008, sua aplicacao esta em curso em mais 50 programas. The Monitoring and Evaluation Committee demanded to the participants of the Technical Chamber the development of a methodological proposal for the program evaluation of the Plurianual Plan (PPA) At that occasion, it was stressed the necessity of an evaluation proposal less complex and with low cost. Such evaluation methodology, to be applied to every kind of governmental program, must focus the improvement of aspects related to program design and management, but with potential to systematize the demand for results evaluation of government actions. For the methodological development, the main foundation adopted was the methodology of Evaluability Assessment of Joseph S. Wholey, which was initially formulated as a kind of pre evaluation to verify if a program is designed to be managed for results and to identify what changes are needed to achieve results. A crucial stage of this methodology is the elaboration of logic model, which has the function of making explicit the program theory and to assess its quality, verifying if the program is well designed and presents a plausible plan of results achievement. The actual experience of methodological development, presented in this text, incorporated new aspects to the basic theory of logic model. A result to be reported is the adoption, by the Ministry of Planning, of the Ipea proposal for building logic model. This instrument was experimentally applied, in 2007, to 20 programs and is currently being applied to 50 federal programs.
Helder Ferreira Martha Cassiolato Roberto Gonzalez
158308142
Mobilizando estudantes em defesa do Sistema Unico de Saude (SUS) experiencias interprofissionais do VER SUS Sobral, CE, Brasil
Resumo Trata se de um relato das experiencias do projeto VER SUS no periodo de 2012 a 2016 no processo de formacao interprofissional dos academicos da area da Saude e afins, no municipio de Sobral (CE) Os eixos analiticos abrangeram: construcao historica e social do VER SUS e a experiencia interprofissional no VER SUS. Ao longo desse percurso temporal, aconteceram seis edicoes do projeto, que, por meio de rodas de conversas, oficinas de desenvolvimento interprofissional e devolutivas das imersoes nos territorios e servicos de saude, possibilitaram uma formacao dialogica e horizontal acerca da realidade do SUS. Assim, o VER SUS/Sobral mostrou se uma estrategia potente por estimular a interprofissionalidade e o desenvolvimento de expertises do trabalho em saude entre graduandos e o servico. Para tanto, essas experiencias proporcionaram espacos dialogicos para a (re)construcao do saber.
Vitoria Ferreira do Amaral Ana Suelen Pedroza Cavalcante Quiteria Larissa Teodoro Farias Marcos Aguiar Ribeiro David Gomes Araujo Junior Diogenes Farias Gomes
143421212
Na parada do lazer: delineando as acoes de lazer em ONGs LGBT de Belo Horizonte
The present study aimed to diagnose and analyze the actions of leisure for Non Governmental Organizations related to the LGBT movement in Belo Horizonte/MG. Therefore, we present how the proposed methodology the documentary research combined with a field survey, applying the immersion in the field and semi structured interviews as data collection instruments. We analyzed two institutions, through interviews with six professionals working within the recreation. The goals of these actions vary, fitting them since the work of self esteem to the empowerment of the public seeking its social protagonism. There are a variety of actions that involve the several contents of recreation, arts, physical activities. Therefore, this work presents some challenges that invite you to think about the field of practice in recreation in LGBT NGOs, participatory planning of actions, use and appropriation of public spaces for recreation, investment in the sector, and awareness of leisure as a right.
Marie Luce Tavares Helder Ferreira Isayama