153299294
Problems of epidemic modelling
This note gives a brief review of some aspects of epidemic modelling which I have found of interest. The field is now very broad, and it is difficult to provide more than a partial flavor of recent developments. We shall concentrate on three topics: epidemic data fitting, matrix-geometric methods for general epidemics, and the duration of an epidemic in an immigration type model. These will provide a sample of current research problems.
32849154
Some population and epidemic models revisited.
Three problems of population and epidemic models formulated between ten and thirty years ago are reconsidered. In each case, a modified approach to the problem leads to its solution. For the two-sex population model, the solution of a Riccati equation results in an expression for the generating function of the process. The fully stochastic, as against the previously studied semistochastic, model of population growth with random catastrophes yields to hard analysis. Finally a generalized form of the general stochastic epidemic is solved using matrix geometric methods.
82131849
Processus stochastiques de population
126118485
Stochastic Models for Type Counts in a Literary Text
61484310
Random Allocation Methods in an Epidemic Model
A random allocation model is developed for the numbers of susceptibles in a group of n IVDU’s who become infected by i HIV-infectives sharing needles. A comparison of this model and the classical Reed-Frost model is outlined.
150703032
Modelling the spread of HIV in prisons
This paper is concerned with models for the spread of HIV in prisons. We first consider a single prison of size N in which there is homogeneous mixing, and where there is an inflow and outflow of n< N prisoners at times t= 0, 1, 2,... Conditions are derived for the stability of the system. The interaction of such a prison with the outside world is then studied, and stability conditions obtained for this case. Finally, a quarantine policy is examined and its cost analyzed, both in the non-stable and stable cases.
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OBITUARY: EDWARD JAMES HANNAN