Population Dispersal: Forecasting and Reality in the 4 Million Population Plan for Israel
Population dispersal plans have been found to achieve only limited success throughout the world. The Israeli case deserves special attention because of Israel's political economy, policies, population structure, and plan monitoring. The 4 million population plan for Israel with a target year of 1981 is presented and analyzed in comparison with reality. The plan, approved by government, called for modest continued population diffusion from the highly urbanized coastal plain to outlying regions. Although the forecast for the total population was almost accurate, the ratio between Jewish and Arab populations was different from that predicted because the behavior of parameters was different from that assumed. The geographical distribution by district has only partially achieved the planned goal. This is true also for metropolitan areas.