On the Economic Determinants of Free Trade Agreements
The purpose of this study is to provide the first systematic empirical analysis of the economic determinants of the formation of free trade agreements (FTAs) and of the likelihood of FTAs between pairs of countries using a qualitative choice model. We develop this econometric model based upon a general equilibrium theoretical model of world trade with two factors of production, two monopolistically-competitive product markets, and explicit intercontinental and intracontinental transportation costs among multiple countries on multiple continents. The empirical model correctly predicts, based solely upon economic characteristics, 83 percent of the 289 FTAs existing in 1996 among 1431 pairs of countries and 97 percent of the remaining 1142 pairs with no FTAs.