Nations of the former Yugoslavia: Consequences of economic breakdown
Recent events in former Yugoslavia reveal that if a political structure is breaking down, it is difficult, if not impossible, to keep a multi-national state together on the basis of economic rationality alone. Once the political structure has been broken, economic, cultural and other ties that provide some coherence among relatively small groups do not have the strength to solidify and homogenize a multinational state. The economic costs resulting from the disintegration of the former Yugoslavia's market are difficult to assess. Recent efforts to analyze the costs are ambitious, but suffer from methodological?and emotional?im? perfections.1 The fragmented information available clearly reveals, how? ever, that the economic losses from market disintegration run to tens of billions of dollars, without even taking into account the human and material losses resulting from the wars that have raged with brutal consequences since 1991. When the wars cease, and peace is established, does the for? merly united Yugoslavia have a chance to embark on economic recovery and transition? The answer to this question requires combining a historical inquiry into the conditions of the Yugoslav federation when it was most successful after World War II with an analysis of current conditions. Such an inves? tigation will lead us to see that the most promising future "external market" for the several parts of former Yugoslavia is to be found within the frame? work of the formerly vital "internal markets" of the defunct state.2 Revival of economic ties in the future may be rationally expected, but it is possible to visualize a darker scenario in which the former members of the Yugoslav federation are at peace but do not cooperate economically. For a certain period of time, "professional nationalists" in parts of former Yugoslavia