A Liberal Trade Order? The Long-Run Pattern of Imports to the Advanced Capitalist States
It is often claimed that the post-World War II trading order has been relatively liberal, and much effort has been invested in explaining why it has not become more closed in the aftermath of Bretton Woods. Investigation of actual imports (as opposed to policy instruments designed to influence imports (reveals that the advanced capitalist states were no more open to imports or multilateral in their trading patterns in 1948–1972 than in 1921–1938 or 1881–1913. In the current (post-1972) era, openness in terms of trade volumes has increased substantially, but the increase in openness in terms of trade values has been more modest. Contrary to some recent theorizing, the degree of openness is generally unrelated to a number of plausible measures of “concentration” in the international system. It is, however, related in more recent eras to previously experienced rates of economic growth.

Incomplete evidence for regionalization in trade flows shows little difference between 1948–1972 and the interwar period. Some measures of bilateral balancing in trade currently meet or exceed those experienced in the 1930s. Heterodox transactional forms—countertrade and intra-firm trade—have become a significant proportion of global trade. This development, rather than the achievement of a “liberal” order, seems to be the most noteworthy characteristic of the current era.