13197517
Enthalpy and Momentum Fluxes during Hurricane Earl Relative to Underlying Ocean Features
Using dropsondes from 27 aircraft flights, in situ observations, and satellite data acquired during Tropical Cyclone Earl (category4 hurricane), bulk air‐sea fluxesof enthalpy and momentumare investigated in relation to intensity change and underlying upper-ocean thermal structure. During Earl’s rapid intensification (RI) period,oceanheatcontent(OHC)variabilityrelativetothe268Cisothermexceeded90kJcm 22 ,andseasurface cooling was less than 0.58C. Enthalpy fluxes of ;1.1kWm 22 were estimated for Earl’s peak intensity. Daily sea surface heat losses of 26:560:8, 27:861:1, and 12:360: 7k Jcm 22 were estimated for RI, mature, and weakening stages, respectively. A ratio CK/CD of the exchange coefficients of enthalpy (CK) and momentum (CD) between 0.54 and 0.7 produced reliable estimates for the fluxes relative to OHC changes, even during RI; ar atioCK/CD 51 overestimated the fluxes. The most important result is that bulk enthalpy fluxes were controlled by the thermodynamic disequilibrium between the sea surface and the near-surface air, independently of wind speed. This disequilibrium was strongly influenced by underlying warm oceanic features; localized maxima in enthalpy fluxes developed over tight horizontal gradients of moisture disequilibrium over these eddy features. These regions of local buoyant forcing preferentially developed during RI. The overall magnitude of the moisture disequilibrium (Dq 5 qs2qa )w as determined by thesaturation specifichumidityat sea surface temperature (qs)rather than by thespecific humidity of the atmospheric environment (qa). These results support the hypothesis that intense local buoyant forcing by the ocean could be an important intensification mechanism in tropical cyclones over warm oceanic features.
117837650
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones: Forecast Problems and Associated Research Opportunities.
Abstract The Fifth Prospectus Development Team of the U.S. Weather Research Program was charged to identify and delineate emerging research opportunities relevant to the prediction of local weather, flooding, and coastal ocean currentsassociated with landfalling U.S. hurricanes specifically, and tropical cyclones in general. Central to this theme are basicand applied research topics, including rapid intensity change, initialization of and parameterization in dynamical models, coupling of atmospheric and oceanic models, quantitative use of satellite information, and mobile observing strategies to acquire observations to evaluate and validate predictive models. To improve the necessary understanding ofphysical processes and provide the initial conditions for realistic predictions, a focused, comprehensive mobile observing system in a translating storm-coordinate system is required. Given the development of proven instrumentation andimprovement of existing systems, three-dimensional atmospheric and oceanic d...
2142055
Evaluation and Sensitivity Analysis of an Ocean Model Response to Hurricane Ivan
Abstract An ocean model response to Hurricane Ivan (2004) over the northwest Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico is evaluated to guide strategies for improving performance during strong forcing events in a region with energetic ocean features with the ultimate goal of improving coupled tropical cyclone forecasts. Based on prior experience, a control experiment is performed using quasi-optimal choices of initial ocean fields, atmospheric forcing fields, air–sea flux parameterizations, vertical mixing parameterizations, and both horizontal and vertical resolutions. Alternate experiments are conducted by altering one single model attribute and comparing the results to SST analyses and moored ADCP current measurements to quantify the sensitivity to that attribute and identify where to concentrate model improvement efforts. Atmospheric forcing that does not resolve the eye and eyewall of the storm (scales >10 km) substantially degrades the ocean response. Ordering other model attributes from greatest to least sen...
10622192
Near-Inertial Wave Wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita over Mesoscale Oceanic Eddies
Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) Katrina and Rita moved as major hurricanes over energetic geostrophic ocean features in the Gulf of Mexico. Increased and reduced oceanic mixed layer (OML) cooling was measured following the passage of both storms over cyclonic and anticyclonic geostrophic relative vorticity ζg, respectively. This contrasting thermal response is investigated here in terms of the evolution of the storms’ near-inertial wave wake in geostrophic eddies. Observational data and ray-tracing techniques in realistic geostrophic flow indicate that TC-forced OML near-inertial waves are trapped in regions of negative ζg, where they rapidly propagate into the thermocline. These anticyclonic-rotating regimes coincided with the distribution of reduced OML cooling because rapid downward dispersion of near-inertial energy reduced the amount of kinetic energy available to increase vertical shears at the OML base. By contrast, TC-forced OML near-inertial waves were stalled in upper layers of cyclonic circula...
119999595
Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclones to Surface Exchange Coefficients and a Revised Steady-State Model incorporating Eye Dynamics
Abstract Numerical and theoretical models of tropical cyclones indicate that the maximum wind speed in mature storms is sensitive to the ratio of the enthalpy and momentum surface exchange coefficients and that the spinup time of tropical cyclones varies inversely with the magnitude of these coefficients. At the same time, the Carnot cycle model developed by the author predicts that the central pressure of mature cyclones is independent of the magnitude of the exchange coefficients. The author presents numerical simulations that prove this last prediction false and suggest that the reason for this failure is the neglect of eye dynamics in the steady-state theory. On this basis, the existing theory is modified to account for eye dynamics, and the predictions of the revised theory are compared to the results of numerical simulations. Both the revised theory and the numerical modeling results, when compared to observations, suggest that the ratio of enthalpy to momentum exchange coefficients in real hurrican...
14503726
The Ocean’s Effect on the Intensity of Tropical Cyclones: Results from a Simple Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean Model
Abstract A coupled hurricane–ocean model was constructed from an axisymmetric hurricane model and a three-layer ocean model. If the hurricane moves at constant speed across the ocean a statistically steady state (in a reference frame moving with the storm) is reached after a few days of simulation time. The steady-state intensity of the hurricane is strongly affected by the interaction with the ocean. This interaction with the ocean can be described as a negative feedback effect on the hurricane’s intensity and is called “SST feedback.” A large set of numerical experiments was performed with the coupled model to deduce systematically the dependence of the amplitude of the SST feedback effect on a set of model parameters. In the coupled model the SST feedback effect can reduce the hurricane’s intensity by more than 50%. Only in cases of rapidly moving storms over deep oceanic mixed layers is the SST feedback effect of minor importance. These results cast a new light on the role of the ocean in limiting hur...
15882504
The Interaction between Hurricane Opal (1995) and a Warm Core Ring in the Gulf of Mexico
Abstract Hurricane Opal (1995) experienced a rapid, unexpected intensification in the Gulf of Mexico that coincided with its encounter with a warm core ring (WCR). The relative positions of Opal and the WCR and the timing of the intensification indicate strong air–sea interactions between the tropical cyclone and the ocean. To study the mutual response of Opal and the Gulf of Mexico, a coupled model is used consisting of a nonhydrostatic atmospheric component of the Naval Research Laboratory’s Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS), and the hydrostatic Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s Modular Ocean Model version 2 (MOM 2). The coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere components of the model are accomplished by conservation of heat, salt, momentum, as well as the sensible and latent heat fluxes at the air–sea interface. The atmospheric model has two nests with spatial resolutions of 0.6° and 0.2°. The ocean model has a uniform resolution of 0.2°. The oceanic model domain ...
54519701
Warm ocean anomaly, air sea fluxes, and the rapid intensification of tropical cyclone Nargis (2008)
[1] On 2 May 2008, category-4 tropical cyclone Nargis devastated Myanmar. It was observed that just prior to its landfall, Nargis rapidly intensified from a weak category-1 storm to an intense category-4 storm within only 24 h. Using in situ ocean depth-temperature measurements and satellite altimetry, it is found that Nargis' rapid intensification took place on a pre-existing warm ocean anomaly in the Bay of Bengal. In the anomaly, the subsurface ocean is evidently warmer than climatology, as characterized by the depth of the 26°C isotherm of 73–101 m and the tropical cyclone heat potential of 77–105 kj cm−2. This pre-existing deep, warm subsurface layer leads to reduction in the cyclone-induced ocean cooling, as shown from the ocean mixed layer numerical experiments. As a result, there was a near 300% increase in the air-sea enthalpy flux to support Nargis' rapid intensification.
43180313
Relationship between typhoon activity and upper ocean heat content
[1] A 44-year mean distribution of tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP), a measure of the oceanic heat content from the surface to the 26°C-isotherm depth, shows that TCHP is locally high in the western North Pacific (WNP). TCHP varies on interannual time scales and has a relationship with tropical cyclone (TC) activity. The third mode of an empirical orthogonal function analysis of TCHP shows that an increase in the total number of TCs is accompanied with a warm central Pacific and cool WNP. Negative TCHP anomalies in the WNP suggest that an increase in total number of TCs results in cooling due to their passages. On the other hand, the first mode shows that the number of super typhoons increases in mature El Nino years. An increase in accumulated TCHP is related to the increase in the number of super typhoons due to long duration.
18224536
Application of Oceanic Heat Content Estimation to Operational Forecasting of Recent Atlantic Category 5 Hurricanes
Research investigating the importance of the subsurface ocean structure on tropical cyclone intensity change has been ongoing for several decades. While the emergence of altimetry-derived sea height observations from satellites dates back to the 1980s, it was difficult and uncertain as to how to utilize these measurements in operations as a result of the limited coverage. As the in situ measurement coverage expanded, it became possible to estimate the upper oceanic heat content (OHC) over most ocean regions. Beginning in 2002, daily OHC analyses have been generated at the National Hurricane Center (NHC). These analyses are used qualitatively for the official NHC intensity forecast, and quantitatively to adjust the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) forecasts. The primary purpose of this paper is to describe how upper-ocean structure information was transitioned from research to operations, and how it is being used to generate NHC’s hurricane intensity forecasts. Examples of the utility of this information for recent category 5 hurricanes (Isabel, Ivan, Emily, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma from the 2003–05 hurricane seasons) are also presented. Results show that for a large sample of Atlantic storms, the OHC variations have a small but positive impact on the intensity forecasts. However, for intense storms, the effect of the OHC is much more significant, suggestive of its importance on rapid intensification. The OHC input improved the average intensity errors of the SHIPS forecasts by up to 5% for all cases from the category 5 storms, and up to 20% for individual storms, with the maximum improvement for the 72–96-h forecasts. The qualitative use of the OHC information on the NHC intensity forecasts is also described. These results show that knowledge of the upper-ocean thermal structure is fundamental to accurately forecasting intensity changes of tropical cyclones, and that this knowledge is making its way into operations. The statistical results obtained here indicate that the OHC only becomes important when it has values much larger than that required to support a tropical cyclone. This result suggests that the OHC is providing a measure of the upper ocean’s influence on the storm and improving the forecast.
6744823
An experimental study on hurricane mesovortices
Mesovortices in the eyewall region of a hurricane are intriguing elements of the hurricane engine. In-situ measurements of them are sparse, however, and our understanding of their overall role in the physics of a hurricane is incomplete. To further understand their dynamics an experimental apparatus using a homogeneous fluid (water) has been constructed to emulate the lower tropospheric flow of the hurricane eye/eyewall region. For experimental configurations possessing a central aspect ratio less than unity, a primary and secondary circulation similar to the in flow layer of an intense hurricane, and a similar radius-to-width ratio of the curvilinear shear layer bordering the eye and eyewall region, the flow supports two primary quasi-steady vortices and secondary intermittent vortices. The vortices form through Kelvin–Helmholtz instability of the curvilinear shear layer bordering the slowly upwelling fluid in the centre and the converging fluid from the periphery. The primary vortices are maintained by convergence of circulation from the periphery and merger of secondary vortices spawned along the shear layer. The horizontal flow field is measured using a particle image velocimeter. Despite the relatively strong secondary circulation through the parent vortex the horizontal flow is found to be approximately uniform in the direction parallel to the rotation axis. The peak tangential velocity is found to occur in the mesovortices and is roughly 50% greater than the parent vortex that supports them. The measurements provide insight into recent observations of excessive wind damage in landfalling storms and support the hypothesis that intense storms contain coherent vortex structures in the eyewall region with higher horizontal wind speeds locally than the parent hurricane.
122746836
Tropical-cyclone intensification and predictability in three dimensions
We present numerical-model experiments to investigate the dynamics of tropical-cyclone amplification and its predictability in three dimensions. For the prototype amplification problem beginning with a weak-tropical-storm-strength vortex, the emergent flow becomes highly asymmetric and dominated by deep convective vortex structures, even though the problem as posed is essentially axisymmetric. The asymmetries that develop are highly sensitive to the boundary-layer moisture distribution. When a small random moisture perturbation is added in the boundary layer at the initial time, the pattern of evolution of the flow asymmetries is changed dramatically, and a non-negligible spread in the local and azimuthally-averaged intensity results. We conclude, first, that the flow on the convective scales exhibits a degree of randomness, and only those asymmetric features that survive in an ensemble average of many realizations can be regarded as robust; and secondly, that there is an intrinsic uncertainty in the prediction of maximum intensity using either maximum-wind or minimum-surface-pressure metrics. There are clear implications for the possibility of deterministic forecasts of the mesoscale structure of tropical cyclones, which may have a major impact on the intensity and on rapid intensity changes. 
 
Some other aspects of vortex structure are addressed also, including vortex-size parameters, and sensitivity to the inclusion of different physical processes or higher spatial resolution. We investigate also the analogous problem on a β-plane, a prototype problem for tropical-cyclone motion. A new perspective on the putative role of the wind--evaporation feedback process for tropical-cyclone intensification is offered also. 
 
The results provide new insight into the fluid dynamics of the intensification process in three dimensions, and at the same time suggest limitations of deterministic prediction for the mesoscale structure. Larger-scale characteristics, such as the radius of gale-force winds and β-gyres, are found to be less variable than their mesoscale counterparts. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society
16881386
Air–sea interaction over ocean fronts and eddies
Abstract Air–sea interaction at ocean fronts and eddies exhibits positive correlation between sea surface temperature (SST), wind speed, and heat fluxes out of the ocean, indicating that the ocean is forcing the atmosphere. This contrasts with larger scale climate modes where the negative correlations suggest that the atmosphere is driving the system. This paper examines the physical processes that lie behind the interaction of sharp SST gradients and the overlying marine atmospheric boundary layer and deeper atmosphere, using high resolution satellite data, field data and numerical models. The importance of different physical mechanisms of atmospheric response to SST gradients, such as the effect of surface stability variations on momentum transfer, pressure gradients, secondary circulations and cloud cover will be assessed. The atmospheric response is known to create small-scale wind stress curl and divergence anomalies, and a discussion of the feedback of these features onto the ocean will also be presented. These processes will be compared and contrasted for different regions such as the Equatorial Front in the Eastern Pacific, and oceanic fronts in mid-latitudes such as the Gulf Stream, Kuroshio, and Agulhas Return Current.
121663307
Multiscale Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Kinematic Structure from Airborne Doppler Radar Composites
AbstractThe multiscale inner-core structure of mature tropical cyclones is presented via the use of composites of airborne Doppler radar analyses. The structure of the axisymmetric vortex and the convective and turbulent-scale properties within this axisymmetric framework are shown to be consistent with many previous studies focusing on individual cases or using different airborne data sources. On the vortex scale, these structures include the primary and secondary circulations, eyewall slope, decay of the tangential wind with height, low-level inflow layer and region of enhanced outflow, radial variation of convective and stratiform reflectivity, eyewall vorticity and divergence fields, and rainband signatures in the radial wind, vertical velocity, vorticity, and divergence composite mean and variance fields. Statistics of convective-scale fields and how they vary as a function of proximity to the radius of maximum wind show that the inner eyewall edge is associated with stronger updrafts and higher refl...
56229078
NASA's Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) Field Experiment
In August–September 2010, NASA, NOAA, and the National Science Foundation (NSF) conducted separate but closely coordinated hurricane field campaigns, bringing to bear a combined seven aircraft with both new and mature observing technologies. NASA's Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) experiment, the subject of this article, along with NOAA's Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX) and NSF's Pre-Depression Investigation of Cloud-Systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) experiment, obtained unprecedented observations of the formation and intensification of tropical cyclones. The major goal of GRIP was to better understand the physical processes that control hurricane formation and intensity change, specifically the relative roles of environmental and inner-core processes. A key focus of GRIP was the application of new technologies to address this important scientific goal, including the first ever use of the unmanned Global Hawk aircraft for hurricane science operations. NASA and NOAA conducted coord...
122295157
The NCAR GPS Dropwindsonde
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), in a joint effort with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the German Aerospace Research Establishment, has developed a dropwindsonde based on the Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite navigation. The NCAR GPS dropwindsonde represents a major advance in both accuracy and resolution for atmospheric measurements over data-sparse oceanic areas of the globe, providing wind accuracies of 0.5–2.0 m s−1 with a vertical resolution of ~5 m. One important advance over previous generations of sondes is the ability to measure surface (10 m) winds. The new dropwindsonde has already been used extensively in one major international research field experiment (Fronts and Atlantic Storm Track Experiment), in operational and research hurricane flights from NOAA's National Weather Service and Hurricane Research Division, during NCAR's SNOWBAND experiment, and in recent CALJET and NORPEX El Nino experiments. The sonde has been deployed from a ...
124261501
New Equations for Computing Vapor Pressure and Enhancement Factor
Abstract Equations are presented which relate saturation vapor pressure to temperature for moist air. The equations are designed to be easily implemented on a calculator or computer and can be used to convert in either direction. They are more accurate than the commonly used Goff-Gratch equations for the meteorologically interesting region of −80 to +50°C. Equations also are given for the enhancement factor.
129381246
Efficient objective analysis of dynamically heterogeneous and nonstationary fields via the parameter matrix
Abstract We develop a generalized approach for the objective analysis of nonstationary, heterogeneous fields. An algorithm is presented that uses an anisotropic, time-dependent correlation function with correlation parameters that vary in space/time and a time-dependent trend surface for efficient objective analysis of dynamically heterogeneous and nonstationary fields. The algorithm, which we term the “parameter matrix algorithm”, is applied to two data sets. The first is tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) derived from satellite AVHRR data and Pan-Toga drifting buoys. The SST appliclication illustrates how the parameter matrix is used for the computationally efficient objective analysis of the tropical Pacific SST from 30°S to 30°N at 0.2° resolution (over 290,000 grid points) using approximately 350,000 data points from 12 2-day satellite SST composites. The second example uses data from the Anatomy of a Meander/ BIOSYNOP experiment in the Gulf Stream ring and meander region and illustrates that an objective analysis using the parameter matrix can yield a more accurate representation of oceanic features than typical objective analysis techniques.
53457318
Metrics of hurricane-ocean interaction: vertically-integrated or vertically-averaged ocean temperature?
Abstract. The ocean thermal field is often represented in hurricane-ocean interaction by a metric termed upper Ocean Heat Content (OHC), the vertical integral of ocean temperature in excess of 26°C. High values of OHC have proven useful for identifying ocean regions that are especially favorable for hurricane intensification. Nevertheless, it is argued here that a more direct and robust metric of the ocean thermal field may be afforded by a vertical average of temperature. In the simplest version, dubbed T 100 , the averaging is from the surface to 100 m, a typical depth of vertical mixing by a category 3 hurricane. OHC and T 100 are well correlated over the deep open ocean in the high range of OHC, ≥75 kJ cm−2. They are poorly correlated in the low range of OHC, ≤50 kJ cm−2, in part because OHC is degenerate when evaluated on cool ocean regions, ≤26°C. OHC and T 100 can be qualitatively different also over shallow continental shelves: OHC will generally indicate comparatively low values regardless of the ocean temperature, while T 100 will take on high values over a shelf that is warm and upwelling neutral or negative. In so far as the ocean thermal field alone is concerned, these warm, shallow continental shelves would appear to be as favorable for hurricane intensification as are warm, deep ocean regions.
128446050
Hurricane Heat Potential of the Gulf of Mexico
Abstract It has been demonstrated that a large input of energy from the ocean is necessary to establish and maintain hurricane force winds over the sea. However, there has been no suitable data which could serve as a basis for calculating this input. Now, observations are available to show that, early in the hurricane season, there are varying initial conditions in the Gulf of Mexico which could lead to significantly different total heat exchanges. The sea can provide some seven days of energy flow into a hurricane at some times and at some locations, but less than one day in others depending upon the amount of heat initially available in the Gulf waters. In the four summers represented by the data, a quantity defined as hurricane heat potential was found to vary from a low of 700 cal cm−2 column north of Yucatan to a high of 31,600 in the central east Gulf. Synoptic data on hurricane heat potential, if made regularly available to forecasters, might serve as a basis for improved forecasts of changes in In...
38185961
New generation of satellite-derived ocean thermal structure for the western north pacific typhoon intensity forecasting
Abstract Ocean thermal structure is critical for the intensity change of tropical cyclones (TCs). It has been operationally derived from satellite altimetry for TC forecasting and research. The existing derivation is, however, based on a simple two-layer method; as a result, only two isotherms can be obtained to coarsely characterize the subsurface ocean thermal structure. Improvement on the vertical resolution to enhance ocean characterization is desirable for more accurately estimating ocean’s energy supply for TC intensity change. In this study, we present a new generation of derivation to improve ocean’s subsurface characterization for the Western North Pacific Ocean (WNPO) because this region has the highest TC occurrence on the Earth. In addition to the presently used two isotherms for the depths of 20 °C and 26 °C isotherms (D20 and D26), we derive continuous isotherms from D4 up to D29 (maximum 26 subsurface layers) to characterize the subsurface ocean thermal structure in detail. This is achieved through applying a large set (>38,000) of in situ Argo thermal profiles to regression development. A smaller set of in situ Argo profiles (>7000), independent of those used for regression, is utilized for validation, to assess the accuracy of the new derivation. The root-mean-square differences (RMSDs) between the derived and the in situ isotherms are found to be within ∼10–20 m for the upper isotherms (D20 to D29) and within ∼40–60 m for the lower isotherms (D4 to D19). No significant biases of derived isotherms are found. In addition to increasing the vertical resolution from two layers to 26 layers, higher accuracy for the two isotherms of D20 and D26 is also achieved. For example, in the existing two-layer method, D20 in the northern WNPO is grossly overestimated with a high RMSD of ∼80–100 m; the new method significantly reduces the RMSD to ∼20 m. Better subsurface characterization leads to improvement in important TC-intensity related parameters, like during-cyclone sea surface temperature (SST) cooling and air–sea enthalpy flux supply. Based on a series of ocean mixed layer numerical experiments using 16 randomly-selected profiles, we find that the error in SST cooling (air–sea flux supply) can be reduced from 36% (120%) to 13% (20%).
4424285
Reduced drag coefficient for high wind speeds in tropical cyclones
The transfer of momentum between the atmosphere and the ocean is described in terms of the variation of wind speed with height and a drag coefficient that increases with sea surface roughness and wind speed. But direct measurements have only been available for weak winds; momentum transfer under extreme wind conditions has therefore been extrapolated from these field measurements. Global Positioning System sondes have been used since 1997 to measure the profiles of the strong winds in the marine boundary layer associated with tropical cyclones. Here we present an analysis of these data, which show a logarithmic increase in mean wind speed with height in the lowest 200 m, maximum wind speed at 500 m and a gradual weakening up to a height of 3 km. By determining surface stress, roughness length and neutral stability drag coefficient, we find that surface momentum flux levels off as the wind speeds increase above hurricane force. This behaviour is contrary to surface flux parameterizations that are currently used in a variety of modelling applications, including hurricane risk assessment and prediction of storm motion, intensity, waves and storm surges.
140617689
First direct measurements of enthalpy flux in the hurricane boundary layer: The CBLAST results
[1] Hurricanes extract energy from the warm ocean through enthalpy fluxes. As part of the Coupled Boundary Layer Air-Sea Transfer (CBLAST) experiment, flights were conducted to measure turbulent fluxes in the high-wind boundary layer of hurricanes. Here we present the first field observations of sensible heat and enthalpy flux for 10m wind speeds to 30 ms−1. The analyses indicate no statistically significant dependence of these bulk exchange coefficients on wind speed. As a measure of hurricane development potential, we compute the mean ratio of the exchange coefficient for enthalpy to that for momentum and find it to be significantly below the lowest threshold estimated by previous investigators. This suggests that the enthalpy flux required for hurricane development may come from sources other than turbulent fluxes, such as lateral fluxes from the vortex warm core, or sea spray. Alternatively, it demands a re-evaluation of the theoretical models used to derive the threshold.
13292471
Large-Scale Characteristics of Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) databases are employed to examine the large-scale characteristics of rapidly intensifying Atlantic basin tropical cyclones. In this study, rapid intensification (RI) is defined as approximately the 95th percentile of over-water 24-h intensity changes of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones that developed from 1989 to 2000. This equates to a maximum sustained surface wind speed increase of 15.4 m s 21 (30 kt) over a 24-h period. It is shown that 31% of all tropical cyclones, 60% of all hurricanes, 83% of all major hurricanes, and all category 4 and 5 hurricanes underwent RI at least once during their lifetimes. The mean initial (t 5 0 h) conditions of cases that undergo RI are compared to those of the non-RI cases. These comparisons show that the RI cases form farther south and west and have a more westward component of motion than the non-RI cases. In addition, the RI cases are typically intensifying at a faster rate during the previous 12 h than the non-RI cases. The statistical analysis also shows that the RI cases are further from their maximum potential intensity and form in regions with warmer SSTs and higher lower-tropospheric relative humidity than the non-RI cases. The RI cases are also embedded in regions where the upper-level flow is more easterly and the vertical shear and upper-level forcing from troughs or cold lows is weaker than is observed for the non-RI cases. Finally, the RI cases tend to move with the flow within a higher layer of the atmosphere than the non-RI cases. A simple technique for estimating the probability of RI is described. Estimates of the probability of RI are determined using the predictors for which statistically significant differences are found between the RI and nonRI cases. Estimates of the probability of RI are also determined by combining the five predictors that had the highest individual probabilities of RI. The probability of RI increases from 1% to 41% when the total number of thresholds satisfied increases from zero to five. This simple technique was used in real time for the first time during the 2001 Atlantic hurricane season as part of the Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT).
131324937
Satellite altimetry and the intensification of Hurricane Katrina
Remotely sensed infrared images of Hurricane Katrina taken on 26, 27, and 28 August 2005 (Figure 1, left panels) show the aerial extent of the cloud cover and the central “eye” increasing as the storm that swamped areas of the U.S. Gulf Coast intensified. Computer animations of such image sequences show forecasters the tracks of storms and are a familiar staple of weather news. Less well known is the role that satellite altimetry plays both in forecasting conditions that can intensify a tropical storm and in observing the storm conditions at the sea surface. 
 
Satellite altimeter data indicate that Katrina intensified over areas of anomalously high dynamic topography rather than areas of unusually warm surface waters. Altimeter data from Katrina also for the first time observed the building of a storm surge.
55274974
Sea Surface Temperature Variability in Hurricanes: Implications with Respect to Intensity Change
Scientists at NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division recently analyzed the inner-core upper-ocean environment for 23 Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean hurricanes between 1975 and 2002. The interstorm variability of sea surface temperature (SST) change between the hurricane inner-core environment and the ambient ocean environment ahead of the storm is documented using airborne expendable bathythermograph (AXBT) observations and buoy-derived archived SST data. The authors demonstrate that differences between inner-core and ambient SST are much less than poststorm, ‘‘cold wake’’ SST reductions typically observed (i.e., ;08‐28C versus 48‐58C). These findings help define a realistic parameter space for storm-induced SST change within the important high-wind inner-core hurricane environment. Results from a recent observational study yielded estimates of upper-ocean heat content, upper-ocean energy extracted by the storm, and upper-ocean energy utilization for a wide range of tropical systems. Results from this analysis show that, under most circumstances, the energy available to the tropical cyclone is at least an order of magnitude greater than the energy extracted by the storm. This study also highlights the significant impact that changes in inner-core SST have on the magnitude of air‐ sea fluxes under high-wind conditions. Results from this study illustrate that relatively modest changes in innercore SST (order 18C) can effectively alter maximum total enthalpy (sensible plus latent heat) flux by 40% or more. The magnitude of SST change (ambient minus inner core) was statistically linked to subsequent changes in storm intensity for the 23 hurricanes included in this research. These findings suggest a relationship between reduced inner-core SST cooling (i.e., increased inner-core surface enthalpy flux) and tropical cyclone intensification. Similar results were not found when changes in storm intensity were compared with ambient SST or upper-ocean heat content conditions ahead of the storm. Under certain circumstances, the variability associated with inner-core SST change appears to be an important factor directly linked to the intensity change process.
122799474
Turbulent Fluxes in the Hurricane Boundary Layer. Part II: Latent Heat Flux
Abstract As part of the recent ONR-sponsored Coupled Boundary Layer Air–Sea Transfer (CBLAST) Departmental Research Initiative, an aircraft was instrumented to carry out direct turbulent flux measurements in the high wind boundary layer of a hurricane. During the 2003 field season flux measurements were made during Hurricanes Fabian and Isabel. Here the first direct measurements of latent heat fluxes measured in the hurricane boundary layer are reported. The previous wind speed range for humidity fluxes and Dalton numbers has been extended by over 50%. Up to 30 m s−1, the highest 10-m winds measured, the Dalton number is not significantly different from the Humidity Exchange over the Sea (HEXOS) result, with no evidence of an increase with wind speed.
122703117
Turbulent Fluxes in the Hurricane Boundary Layer. Part I: Momentum Flux
Abstract An important outcome from the ONR-sponsored Coupled Boundary Layer Air–Sea Transfer (CBLAST) Hurricane Program is the first-ever direct measurements of momentum flux from within hurricane boundary layers. In 2003, a specially instrumented NOAA P3 aircraft obtained measurements suitable for computing surface wind stress and ultimately estimating drag coefficients in regions with surface wind between 18 and 30 m s−1. Analyses of data are presented from 48 flux legs flown within 400 m of the surface in two storms. Results suggest a roll-off in the drag coefficient at higher wind speeds, in qualitative agreement with laboratory and modeling studies and inferences of drag coefficients using a log-profile method. However, the amount of roll-off and the wind speed at which the roll-off occurs remains uncertain, underscoring the need for additional measurements.
38287999
Bottom-Up Determination of Air-Sea Momentum Exchange Under a Major Tropical Cyclone
As a result of increasing frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones, an accurate forecasting of cyclone evolution and ocean response is becoming even more important to reduce threats to lives and property in coastal regions. To improve predictions, accurate evaluation of the air-sea momentum exchange is required. Using current observations recorded during a major tropical cyclone, we have estimated this momentum transfer from the ocean side of the air-sea interface, and we discuss it in terms of the drag coefficient. For winds between 20 and 48 meters per second, this coefficient initially increases and peaks at winds of about 32 meters per second before decreasing.
129469357
Highly resolved observations and simulations of the ocean response to a hurricane
[1] An autonomous, profiling float called EM-APEX was developed to provide a quantitative and comprehensive description of the ocean side of hurricane-ocean interaction. EM-APEX measures temperature, salinity and pressure to CTD quality and relative horizontal velocity with an electric field sensor. Three prototype floats were air-deployed into the upper ocean ahead of Hurricane Frances (2004). All worked properly and returned a highly resolved description of the upper ocean response to a category 4 hurricane. At a float launched 55 km to the right of the track, the hurricane generated large amplitude, inertially rotating velocity in the upper 120 m of the water column. Coincident with the hurricane passage there was intense vertical mixing that cooled the near surface layer by about 2.2°C. We find consistent model simulations of this event provided the wind stress is computed from the observed winds using a high wind-speed saturated drag coefficient.
121470867
Air-sea exchange in hurricanes : Synthesis of observations from the coupled boundary layer air-sea transfer experiment
The Coupled Boundary Layer Air–Sea Transfer (CBLAST) field program, conducted from 2002 to 2004, has provided a wealth of new air–sea interaction observations in hurricanes. The wind speed range for which turbulent momentum and moisture exchange coefficients have been derived based upon direct flux measurements has been extended by 30% and 60%, respectively, from airborne observations in Hurricanes Fabian and Isabel in 2003. The drag coefficient (CD) values derived from CBLAST momentum flux measurements show CD becoming invariant with wind speed near a 23 m s−1 threshold rather than a hurricane-force threshold near 33 m s−1 . Values above 23 m s−1 are lower than previous open-ocean measurements. The Dalton number estimates (CE) derived from CBLAST moisture flux measurements are shown to be invariant with wind speeds up to 30 m s −1 which is in approximate agreement with previous measurements at lower winds. These observations imply a CE/CD ratio of approximately 0.7, suggesting that additional energy sour...
119885429
A Study of the Impacts of Vertical Diffusion on the Structure and Intensity of the Tropical Cyclones Using the High-Resolution HWRF System
AbstractThe Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) system was used in an idealized framework to gain a fundamental understanding of the variability in tropical cyclone (TC) structure and intensity prediction that may arise due to vertical diffusion. The modeling system uses the Medium-Range Forecast parameterization scheme. Flight-level data collected by a NOAA WP-3D research aircraft during the eyewall penetration of category 5 Hurricane Hugo (1989) at an altitude of about 450–500 m and Hurricane Allen (1980) were used as the basis to best match the modeled eddy diffusivities with wind speed. While reduction of the eddy diffusivity to a quarter of its original value produced the best match with the observations, such a reduction revealed a significant decrease in the height of the inflow layer as well which, in turn, drastically affected the size and intensity changes in the modeled TC. The cross-isobaric flow (inflow) was observed to be stronger with the decrease in the inflow depth. Stronger...
17840178
Air-Sea Enthalpy and Momentum Exchange at Major Hurricane Wind Speeds Observed during CBLAST
AbstractQuantifying air–sea exchanges of enthalpy and momentum is important for understanding and skillfully predicting tropical cyclone intensity, but the magnitude of the corresponding wind speed–dependent bulk exchange coefficients is largely unknown at major hurricane wind speeds greater than 50 m s−1. Since direct turbulent flux measurements in these conditions are extremely difficult, the momentum and enthalpy fluxes were deduced via absolute angular momentum and total energy budgets. An error analysis of the methodology was performed to quantify and mitigate potentially significant uncertainties resulting from unresolved budget terms and observational errors. An analysis of six missions from the 2003 Coupled Boundary Layers Air–Sea Transfer (CBLAST) field program in major hurricanes Fabian and Isabel was conducted using a new variational technique. The analysis indicates a near-surface mean drag coefficient CD of 2.4 × 10−3 with a 46% standard deviation and a mean enthalpy coefficient CK of 1.0 × 1...
121570665
Concentric Eye Walls, Secondary Wind Maxima, and The Evolution of the Hurricane vortex
Abstract Research aircraft observations in recent hurricanes support the model of Shapiro and Willoughby (1982) for the tropical cyclone's response to circularly symmetric, convective heat sources (convective rings). In both nature and the numerical model the tangential wind commonly increases rapidly just inside the radius of maximum wind and decreases inside the eye near the central axis of the vortex. Thus both secondary outer wind maxima and eyewall wind maxima often contract as they intensify. This response is independent of the horizontal spatial scale of the maximum. An outer maximum is frequently observed to constrict about a pre-existing eye and replace it. This chain of events often coincides with a weakening, or at least a pause in intensification, of the vortex as a whole. The concentric eye phenomenon is a common, but by no means universal, feature of tropical cyclones. It is most frequently observed in intense, highly symmetric systems.
122804344
Sensitivity of tropical‐cyclone intensification to perturbations in the surface drag coefficient
The recent studies of the sensitivity of tropical-cyclone intensification to the surface drag coefficient in a three-dimensional model by Montgomery et al., and Smith et al., are extended to include perturbations of the surface drag coefficient in one of four boundary-layer parametrization schemes: the bulk scheme, the Blackadar scheme, the MRF scheme, and the Gayno–Seaman scheme. The schemes are slightly modified to have the same drag coefficient formulation and the same constant exchange coefficients for sensible heat and moisture. We find that the intensification rate and mature intensity are essentially unaltered when the drag coefficient is perturbed randomly by variations of up to 60%. The results, in conjunction with an analysis of coherent drag coefficient variations for a moving vortex, question the notion that coupled wind–wave mod els are necessary to accurately forecast tropical-cyclone intensification and mature intensity.
56387050
How important is the isothermal expansion effect in elevating equivalent potential temperature in the hurricane inner core
We examine aspects of the thermodynamic structure of mature Atlantic hurricane Earl (2010) based on airborne dropwindsondes released from the upper troposphere during the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) experiment. Vertical sounding profiles of the data raise questions concerning the relative roles of isothermal expansion and relative humidity increase in elevating the equivalent potential temperature of air parcels spiralling inwards to the eyewall convection region. The observational results obtained for two successive days of this category 4 hurricane show that the isothermal expansion effect leads to roughly one half of the increment in equivalent potential temperature for boundary-layer air parcels moving between the region outside the eyewall and the eyewall and eye region. Copyright c � 2012 Royal Meteorological Society
129248118
Restratification of the upper ocean after the passage of a tropical cyclone
AbstractThe role of baroclinic instability in the restratification of the upper ocean after the passage of a tropical cyclone (TC) is determined by means of numerical simulations. Using a regional ocean model, the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), a high-resolution three-dimensional simulation that includes the process of baroclinic instability and is initialized with moderate-amplitude eddy structures reproduces the satellite-observed decay rate of the TC-induced sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly and is also in qualitative agreement with published observations after the passage of Hurricane Fabian in 2003 that showed decaying cold and warm anomalies located in the climatological mixed layer (CML) and upper thermocline, respectively. The model ocean is restratified after approximately one month with a net heat gain in the water column due to anomalous air–sea heat fluxes. The model shows, however, that vertical heat fluxes associated with baroclinic instability dominate over air–sea heat fluxes i...