52048602
A Semi-Supervised and Inductive Embedding Model for Churn Prediction of Large-Scale Mobile Games
Mobile gaming has emerged as a promising market with billion-dollar revenues. A variety of mobile game platforms and services have been developed around the world. One critical challenge for these platforms and services is to understand user churn behavior in mobile games. Accurate churn prediction will benefit many stakeholders such as game developers, advertisers, and platform operators. In this paper, we present the first large-scale churn prediction solution for mobile games. In view of the common limitations of the state-of-the-art methods built upon traditional machine learning models, we devise a novel semi-supervised and inductive embedding model that jointly learns the prediction function and the embedding function for user-app relationships. We model these two functions by deep neural networks with a unique edge embedding technique that is able to capture both contextual information and relationship dynamics. We also design a novel attributed random walk technique that takes into consideration both topological adjacency and attribute similarities. To evaluate the performance of our solution, we collect real-world data from the Samsung Game Launcher platform that includes tens of thousands of games and hundreds of millions of user-app interactions. The experimental results with this data demonstrate the superiority of our proposed model against existing state-of-the-art methods.
32418201
The Fallacy of the Net Promoter Score : Customer Loyalty Predictive Model
The Net Promoter Score (NPS) is still a popular customer loyalty measurement despite recent studies arguing that customer loyalty is multidimensional. Therefore, firms require new data-driven methods that combine behavioral and attitudinal data sources. This paper provides a framework that holistically assesses and predicts customer loyalty using attitudinal and behavioral data sources. We built a novel customer loyalty predictive model that employs a big data approach to assessing and predicting customer loyalty in a B2B context. We demonstrate the use of varying big data sources, confirming that NPS measurement does not necessarily correspond to actual behavior. Our model utilises customers’ verbatim comments to understand why customers are churning.
3929162
Predicting player churn in the wild
Free-to-Play or “freemium” games represent a fundamental shift in the business models of the game industry, facilitated by the increasing use of online distribution platforms and the introduction of increasingly powerful mobile platforms. The ability of a game development company to analyze and derive insights from behavioral telemetry is crucial to the success of these games which rely on in-game purchases and in-game advertising to generate revenue, and for the company to remain competitive in a global marketplace. The ability to model, understand and predict future player behavior has a crucial value, allowing developers to obtain data-driven insights to inform design, development and marketing strategies. One of the key challenges is modeling and predicting player churn. This paper presents the first cross-game study of churn prediction in Free-to-Play games. Churn in games is discussed and thoroughly defined as a formal problem, aligning with industry standards. Furthermore, a range of features which are generic to games are defined and evaluated for their usefulness in predicting player churn, e.g. playtime, session length and session intervals. Using these behavioral features, combined with the individual retention model for each game in the dataset used, we develop a broadly applicable churn prediction model, which does not rely on game-design specific features. The presented classifiers are applied on a dataset covering five free-to-play games resulting in high accuracy churn prediction.
5107565
Churn prediction of mobile and online casual games using play log data
Internet-connected devices, especially mobile devices such as smartphones, have become widely accessible in the past decade. Interaction with such devices has evolved into frequent and short-duration usage, and this phenomenon has resulted in a pervasive popularity of casual games in the game sector. On the other hand, development of casual games has become easier than ever as a result of the advancement of development tools. With the resulting fierce competition, now both acquisition and retention of users are the prime concerns in the field. In this study, we focus on churn prediction of mobile and online casual games. While churn prediction and analysis can provide important insights and action cues on retention, its application using play log data has been primitive or very limited in the casual game area. Most of the existing methods cannot be applied to casual games because casual game players tend to churn very quickly and they do not pay periodic subscription fees. Therefore, we focus on the new players and formally define churn using observation period (OP) and churn prediction period (CP). Using the definition, we develop a standard churn analysis process for casual games. We cover essential topics such as pre-processing of raw data, feature engineering including feature analysis, churn prediction modeling using traditional machine learning algorithms (logistic regression, gradient boosting, and random forests) and two deep learning algorithms (CNN and LSTM), and sensitivity analysis for OP and CP. Play log data of three different casual games are considered by analyzing a total of 193,443 unique player records and 10,874,958 play log records. While the analysis results provide useful insights, the overall results indicate that a small number of well-chosen features used as performance metrics might be sufficient for making important action decisions and that OP and CP should be properly chosen depending on the analysis goal.
2868418
Churn prediction for high-value players in casual social games
Predicting when players will leave a game creates a unique opportunity to increase players' lifetime and revenue contribution. Players can be incentivized to stay, strategically cross-linked to other games in the company's portfolio or, as a last resort, be passed on to other companies through in-game advertisement. This paper focuses on predicting churn for highvalue players of casual social games and attempts to assess the business impact that can be derived from a predictive churn model. We compare the prediction performance of four common classification algorithms over two casual social games, each with millions of players. Furthermore, we implement a hidden Markov model to explicitly address temporal dynamics. We find that a neural network achieves the best prediction performance in terms of area under curve (AUC). In addition, to assess the business value of churn prediction, we design and implement an A/B test on one of the games, using free in-game currency as an incentive to retain players. Test results indicate that contacting players shortly before the predicted churn event substantially improves the effectiveness of communication with players. They further show that giving out free in-game currency does not significantly impact the churn rate or monetization of players. This suggests that players can only be retained by remarkably changing their gameplay experience ahead of the churn event and that cross-linking may be the more effective measure to deal with churning players.
14193683
Rapid Prediction of Player Retention in Free-to-Play Mobile Games
Predicting and improving player retention is crucial to the success of mobile Free-to-Play games. This paper explores the problem of rapid retention prediction in this context. Heuristic modeling approaches are introduced as a way of building simple rules for predicting short-term retention. Compared to common classification algorithms, our heuristic-based approach achieves reasonable and comparable performance using information from the first session, day, and week of player activity.
3711295
SEANO: Semi-supervised Embedding in Attributed Networks with Outliers
In this paper, we propose a novel framework, called Semi-supervised Embedding in Attributed Networks with Outliers (SEANO), to learn a low-dimensional vector representation that systematically captures the topological proximity, attribute affinity and label similarity of vertices in a partially labeled attributed network (PLAN). Our method is designed to work in both transductive and inductive settings while explicitly alleviating noise effects from outliers. Experimental results on various datasets drawn from the web, text and image domains demonstrate the advantages of SEANO over state-of-the-art methods in semi-supervised classification under transductive as well as inductive settings. We also show that a subset of parameters in SEANO is interpretable as outlier score and can significantly outperform baseline methods when applied for detecting network outliers. Finally, we present the use of SEANO in a challenging real-world setting -- flood mapping of satellite images and show that it is able to outperform modern remote sensing algorithms for this task.
4755450
Inductive Representation Learning on Large Graphs
Low-dimensional embeddings of nodes in large graphs have proved extremely useful in a variety of prediction tasks, from content recommendation to identifying protein functions. However, most existing approaches require that all nodes in the graph are present during training of the embeddings; these previous approaches are inherently transductive and do not naturally generalize to unseen nodes. Here we present GraphSAGE, a general, inductive framework that leverages node feature information (e.g., text attributes) to efficiently generate node embeddings for previously unseen data. Instead of training individual embeddings for each node, we learn a function that generates embeddings by sampling and aggregating features from a node's local neighborhood. Our algorithm outperforms strong baselines on three inductive node-classification benchmarks: we classify the category of unseen nodes in evolving information graphs based on citation and Reddit post data, and we show that our algorithm generalizes to completely unseen graphs using a multi-graph dataset of protein-protein interactions.
121710598
Estimation and comparison of changes in the presence of informative right censoring by modeling the censoring process
Abstract : In estimating and comparing the rates of change of a continuous variable between two groups, the unweighted averages of individual simple least squares estimates from each group are often used. Under a linear random effects model, when all individuals have completed observations at identical time points these statistics are maximum likelihood estimates for the expected rates of change. However, with censored of missing data, these estimates are no longer efficient when compared to generalized least squares estimates. When, in addition, the right censoring process is dependent upon the individual rates of change (i.e., informative right censoring), the generalized least squares estimates will be biased. Likelihood ratio test for informativeness of the censoring process and maximum likelihood estimates for the expected rates of change and the parameters of the right censoring process are developed under a linear random effect models with a probit model for the right censoring process. In realistic situations, we illustrate that the bias in estimating group rate of change and the reduction of power in comparing group difference could be substantial when strong dependency of the right censoring process on individual rates of change is ignored. (Author)
207238980
node2vec: Scalable Feature Learning for Networks
Prediction tasks over nodes and edges in networks require careful effort in engineering features used by learning algorithms. Recent research in the broader field of representation learning has led to significant progress in automating prediction by learning the features themselves. However, present feature learning approaches are not expressive enough to capture the diversity of connectivity patterns observed in networks. Here we propose node2vec, an algorithmic framework for learning continuous feature representations for nodes in networks. In node2vec, we learn a mapping of nodes to a low-dimensional space of features that maximizes the likelihood of preserving network neighborhoods of nodes. We define a flexible notion of a node's network neighborhood and design a biased random walk procedure, which efficiently explores diverse neighborhoods. Our algorithm generalizes prior work which is based on rigid notions of network neighborhoods, and we argue that the added flexibility in exploring neighborhoods is the key to learning richer representations. We demonstrate the efficacy of node2vec over existing state-of-the-art techniques on multi-label classification and link prediction in several real-world networks from diverse domains. Taken together, our work represents a new way for efficiently learning state-of-the-art task-independent representations in complex networks.
26575562
A Framework for Generalizing Graph-based Representation Learning Methods
Random walks are at the heart of many existing deep learning algorithms for graph data. However, such algorithms have many limitations that arise from the use of random walks, e.g., the features resulting from these methods are unable to transfer to new nodes and graphs as they are tied to node identity. In this work, we introduce the notion of attributed random walks which serves as a basis for generalizing existing methods such as DeepWalk, node2vec, and many others that leverage random walks. Our proposed framework enables these methods to be more widely applicable for both transductive and inductive learning as well as for use on graphs with attributes (if available). This is achieved by learning functions that generalize to new nodes and graphs. We show that our proposed framework is effective with an average AUC improvement of 16.1% while requiring on average 853 times less space than existing methods on a variety of graphs from several domains.
18768968
Predicting player disengagement and first purchase with event-frequency based data representation
In the game industry, especially for free to play games, player retention and purchases are important issues. There have been several approaches investigated towards predicting them by players' behaviours during game sessions. However, most current methods are only available for specific games because the data representations utilised are usually game specific. This work intends to use frequency of game events as data representations to predict both players' disengagement from game and the decisions of their first purchases. This method is able to provide better generality because events exist in every game and no knowledge of any event but their frequency is needed. In addition, this event frequency based method will also be compared with a recent work by Runge et al. [1] in terms of disengagement prediction.
67438495
Predicting Disengagement in Free-to-Play Games with Highly Biased Data
A vital application of game data mining is to predict player behaviour trends such as disengagement, purchase, etc.. Several works have been done by quantitative methods in the last decade. Generally, predicting player behaviour trends is a classification problem where class labels of instances are decided by predefined definitions. However, as the majority of current definitions distribute players into classes only by satisfying specific conditions, a highly biased class distribution may be led to if few (or most) players can satisfy these conditions. In this work, a new definition named trend over varying dates that can create balanced class distribution will be introduced and, as an example, disengagement prediction will be used to show how the definition works. Experiments on three commercial mobile games will show how this definition can be applied to games of various genres. Finally, the performance of this definition towards predicting disengagement will be compared with another disengagement concept called churn’. Both game-specific and event frequency based data representation (introduced in previous work) will be applied to represent the datasets for predictions. Results indicate that the definition of ‘trend over varying dates’ can improve the predictive performance by balancing the class distributions in most cases.
207632440
Customer Lifetime Value Prediction Using Embeddings
We describe the Customer LifeTime Value (CLTV) prediction system deployed at ASOS.com, a global online fashion retailer. CLTV prediction is an important problem in e-commerce where an accurate estimate of future value allows retailers to effectively allocate marketing spend, identify and nurture high value customers and mitigate exposure to losses. The system at ASOS provides daily estimates of the future value of every customer and is one of the cornerstones of the personalised shopping experience. The state of the art in this domain uses large numbers of handcrafted features and ensemble regressors to forecast value, predict churn and evaluate customer loyalty. Recently, domains including language, vision and speech have shown dramatic advances by replacing handcrafted features with features that are learned automatically from data. We detail the system deployed at ASOS and show that learning feature representations is a promising extension to the state of the art in CLTV modelling. We propose a novel way to generate embeddings of customers, which addresses the issue of the ever changing product catalogue and obtain a significant improvement over an exhaustive set of handcrafted features.
116815523
Predicting player churn in destiny: A Hidden Markov models approach to predicting player departure in a major online game
Destiny is, to date, the most expensive digital game ever released with a total operating budget of over half a billion US dollars. It stands as one of the main examples of AAA titles, the term used for the largest and most heavily marketed game productions in the games industry. Destiny is a blend of a shooter game and massively multi-player online game, and has attracted dozens of millions of players. As a persistent game title, predicting retention and churn in Destiny is crucial to the running operations of the game, but prediction has not been attempted for this type of game in the past. In this paper, we present a discussion of the challenge of predicting churn in Destiny, evaluate the area under curve (ROC) of behavioral features, and use Hidden Markov Models to develop a churn prediction model for the game.
16897485
Churn Prediction in Mobile Social Games: Towards a Complete Assessment Using Survival Ensembles
Reducing user attrition, i.e. churn, is a broad challenge faced by several industries. In mobile social games, decreasing churn is decisive to increase player retention and rise revenues. Churn prediction models allow to understand player loyalty and to anticipate when they will stop playing a game. Thanks to these predictions, several initiatives can be taken to retain those players who are more likely to churn. Survival analysis focuses on predicting the time of occurrence of a certain event, churn in our case. Classical methods, like regressions, could be applied only when all players have left the game. The challenge arises for datasets with incomplete churning information for all players, as most of them still connect to the game. This is called a censored data problem and is in the nature of churn. Censoring is commonly dealt with survival analysis techniques, but due to the inflexibility of the survival statistical algorithms, the accuracy achieved is often poor. In contrast, novel ensemble learning techniques, increasingly popular in a variety of scientific fields, provide high-class prediction results. In this work, we develop, for the first time in the social games domain, a survival ensemble model which provides a comprehensive analysis together with an accurate prediction of churn. For each player, we predict the probability of churning as function of time, which permits to distinguish various levels of loyalty profiles. Additionally, we assess the risk factors that explain the predicted player survival times. Our results show that churn prediction by survival ensembles significantly improves the accuracy and robustness of traditional analyses, like Cox regression.
26461088
Games and big data: A scalable multi-dimensional churn prediction model
The emergence of mobile games has caused a paradigm shift in the video-game industry. Game developers now have at their disposal a plethora of information on their players, and thus can take advantage of reliable models that can accurately predict player behavior and scale to huge datasets. Churn prediction, a challenge common to a variety of sectors, is particularly relevant for the mobile game industry, as player retention is crucial for the successful monetization of a game. In this article, we present an approach to predicting game churn based on survival ensembles. Our method provides accurate predictions on both the level at which each player will leave the game and their accumulated playtime until that moment. Further, it is robust to different data distributions and applicable to a wide range of response variables, while also allowing for efficient parallelization of the algorithm. This makes our model well suited to perform real-time analyses of churners, even for games with millions of daily active users.
6078532
Playtime Measurement With Survival Analysis
Maximizing product use is a central goal of many businesses, which makes retention and monetization two central analytics metrics in games. Player retention may refer to various duration variables quantifying product use: total playtime or session playtime are popular research targets, and active playtime is well-suited for subscription games. Such research often has the goal of increasing player retention or conversely decreasing player churn. Survival analysis is a framework of powerful tools well suited for retention type data. This paper contributes new methods to game analytics on how playtime can be measured using survival analysis. These methods include visualizations, metrics, and an AB-test based on the survival curve. All these methods work on censored data and enable computation of confidence intervals. This is especially important in time- and sample-limited data that occurs during game development. Throughout this paper, we illustrate the application of these methods to the development of the  Hipster Sheep mobile game.
12998527
Churn analysis using deep convolutional neural networks and autoencoders
Customer temporal behavioral data was represented as images in order to perform churn prediction by leveraging deep learning architectures prominent in image classification. Supervised learning was performed on labeled data of over 6 million customers using deep convolutional neural networks, which achieved an AUC of 0.743 on the test dataset using no more than 12 temporal features for each customer. Unsupervised learning was conducted using autoencoders to better understand the reasons for customer churn. Images that maximally activate the hidden units of an autoencoder trained with churned customers reveal ample opportunities for action to be taken to prevent churn among strong data, no voice users.
21800665
Predicting user churn on streaming services using recurrent neural networks
Providers of online services have witnessed a rapid growth of their user base in the last few years. The phenomenon has attracted an increasing number of competitors determined on obtaining their o ...
3051291
DeepWalk: online learning of social representations
We present DeepWalk, a novel approach for learning latent representations of vertices in a network. These latent representations encode social relations in a continuous vector space, which is easily exploited by statistical models. DeepWalk generalizes recent advancements in language modeling and unsupervised feature learning (or deep learning) from sequences of words to graphs. DeepWalk uses local information obtained from truncated random walks to learn latent representations by treating walks as the equivalent of sentences. We demonstrate DeepWalk's latent representations on several multi-label network classification tasks for social networks such as BlogCatalog, Flickr, and YouTube. Our results show that DeepWalk outperforms challenging baselines which are allowed a global view of the network, especially in the presence of missing information. DeepWalk's representations can provide F1 scores up to 10% higher than competing methods when labeled data is sparse. In some experiments, DeepWalk's representations are able to outperform all baseline methods while using 60% less training data. DeepWalk is also scalable. It is an online learning algorithm which builds useful incremental results, and is trivially parallelizable. These qualities make it suitable for a broad class of real world applications such as network classification, and anomaly detection.
207616048
Learning Edge Representations via Low-Rank Asymmetric Projections
We propose a new method for embedding graphs while preserving directed edge information. Learning such continuous-space vector representations (or embeddings) of nodes in a graph is an important first step for using network information (from social networks, user-item graphs, knowledge bases, etc.) in many machine learning tasks. Unlike previous work, we (1) explicitly model an edge as a function of node embeddings, and we (2) propose a novel objective, the graph likelihood, which contrasts information from sampled random walks with non-existent edges. Individually, both of these contributions improve the learned representations, especially when there are memory constraints on the total size of the embeddings. When combined, our contributions enable us to significantly improve the state-of-the-art by learning more concise representations that better preserve the graph structure. We evaluate our method on a variety of link-prediction task including social networks, collaboration networks, and protein interactions, showing that our proposed method learn representations with error reductions of up to 76% and 55%, on directed and undirected graphs. In addition, we show that the representations learned by our method are quite space efficient, producing embeddings which have higher structure-preserving accuracy but are 10 times smaller.