43566017
Why Do Voters Change Their Mind during an Election Campaign? An Analysis of the Determinants of Campaign Volatility at the 2014 Belgian Federal Elections
This article examines the causes of stability and change in vote intentions during the 2014 Belgian federal election campaign. Drawing on data from the 2014 Parti Rep Belgian Voter Survey, our study aims to explain why a large number of voters have switched their vote intention in the weeks preceding the federal elections. To this end, we test a series of hypotheses drawn from different theories often referred to in the literature to account for campaign volatility. The results of our analysis reveal that voters can decide to change their vote preferences during the campaign due to strategic considerations related to their perceptions of the coalition potentials of parties. We also find that voters with a low level of political interest are more likely than highly interested voters to switch from one party to another in the weeks preceding the electoral contest. Unsurprisingly, a high degree of affection for the favourite party proves to be a barrier against campaign volatility. The higher the level of affect directed to the most preferred party, the more stable will be the vote intention. Moreover, results show that citizens with a low level of external political efficacy are more prone than others to switch parties in the last weeks of the campaign. By contrast, the ideological profile of the voter has no significant impact on campaign volatility.
55629555
Electoral Volatility and Party Decline in Western Democracies: 1970–1995
In 1970, Richard Rose and Derek Urwin published a seminal piece on the stability of party support in Western democracies, ‘Persistence and Change in Western Party Systems Since 1945’. Everywhere they looked, established parties seemed to reflect stability rather than change, lending credence to the notion that party systems were ‘frozen’. Numerous subsequent studies, however, have produced mixed results. Part of what seems to be fueling this debate lies in the disparate measures researchers use to gauge stability. In this update of Rose and Urwin's study, I address the issue of comparable results by maintaining the same data source and methods they used to gauge the stability of party support, extending the study to the present. The results indicate that party system instability is on the rise throughout much of the West since 1970, with statistically significant increases seen in Scandinavia and across all regions combined. Furthermore, the parties which seem to be experiencing the most change are not only the newest parties – as the frozen cleavages thesis might predict – but also those parties formed during the interwar period, the large majority of which showed much greater stability in 1970.
55234662
Democracy Beyond Parties
This paper is concerned primarily with the way in which the changing character of political parties impacts upon their standing, legitimacy, and effectiveness. We see an emerging notion of democracy that is being steadily stripped of its popular component–a notion of democracy without a demos. As I try to show in this paper, much of this has to do with the failings of political parties. I am not suggesting that there has been a wholesale failure of parties; rather, I am seeking to draw attention to an ongoing process in which there are party failings, and in which democracy itself tends to adapt and change to these failings. This process then provokes its own momentum, in which parties become steadily weaker, and in which democracy becomes even more stripped down.
153826754
Election campaign volatility in Sweden and the United States
Abstract An account is given of the volatility of voters during ten parliamentary election campaigns in Sweden (1956–1988) and ten presidential elections in the United States (1952–1988). For each of these campaigns, the population is described in terms of stable voters, switchers, recruits, armchair partisans, and the unmobilized. Various measures of volatility are explored. There appears to have been a trend over the past 30 years towards increased volatility among Swedish voters, but a similar trend is not evident among American voters. Analyses of the more subjective time of decision measures confirmed this as well. Behind the increased volatility of Swedish voters there has been a loosening grip of the political parties in Sweden. The number and positioning of candidates or viable parties competing for votes are associated with variations in volatility in both countries.
144395304
The American voter
Here is the unabridged version of the classic theoretical study of voting behavior, originally published in 1960. It is a standard reference in the field of electoral research, presenting formulations of the theoretical issues that have been the focus of scholarly publication. No single study matches the study of "The American Voter."
145237081
Electoral volatility, political sophistication, trust and efficacy: A study on changes in voter preferences during the Belgian regional elections of 2009
In this article, we investigate voter volatility and analyse the causes and motives of switching vote intentions. We test two main sets of variables linked to volatility in literature; political sophistication and political disaffection. Results show that voters with low levels of political efficacy tend to switch more often, both within a campaign and between elections. In the analysis, we differentiate between campaign volatility and inter-election volatility, and by doing so show that the dynamics of a campaign have a profound impact on volatility. The campaign period is when the lowly sophisticated switch their vote intention. Those with higher levels of interest in politics have switched their intention before the campaign has started. The data for this analysis are from the three wave PartiRep Belgian Election Study (2009).
143966382
Social dealignment versus political frustration: Contrasting explanations of the floating vote in Germany
. The paper contrasts two notions of the floating voter: the ‘modern floating voter’ and the ‘frustrated floating voter’. In doing so, social modernization is contrasted with macro stimuli as explanations of volatility. The ‘modern floating voter’ emerges from social dealignment theories. These claim (1) an increase in volatility, (2) more frequent vote switching among the well educated and the new middle class, and (3) an instrumental view of politics among floating voters. Empirical tests on German data do not deliver any support for these dealignment hypotheses (employing log-linear models on cross-sectional and pooled-cross-sectional data and ANOVA). On the other hand, the model of the ‘frustrated floating voter’, which denotes vote switching that takes place in a mood of protest, receives some support in the data. Thus, the degree of political dissatisfaction of an electorate emerges as a potential predictor of volatility. In a final step, I test if the drop in political satisfaction between 1990 and 1993 can he attributed to social change, thus indicating an indirect effect of social change on volatility. The data do not support this hypothesis. The drop in satisfaction (and thus the potential increase in volatility) most likely should be attributed to macro stimuli. Thus, the results indicate that macro phenomena (which might be historic events, economic conditions, or the like) might be more fruitful in explaining volatility than social modernization.
154292334
Electorally unstable by supply or demand?—an examination of the causes of electoral volatility in advanced industrial democracies
The stability of voters’ partisan choices from election to election is a key feature of democratic politics, but why it varies across advanced industrial democracies and elections is not well understood. This study makes several key contributions to explaining electoral volatility. Firstly, it is argued and demonstrated that strategic voting plays an independent role in inducing vote switching. Secondly, the analysis shows that demand-side factors—such as socio-economic cleavages and organizations—do not predict voter stability, whereas supply-side factors—such as the party system, government performance, and strategic incentives—do. Thirdly, earlier contradictory findings with respect to the role of the electoral system are clarified, as its effects are shown to be indirect rather than direct. And finally, the importance of the temporal dimension to stability is demonstrated, as the time since the previous election is found to have a positive effect on volatility. The results are based on a comprehensive statistical analysis of 336 elections in 21 countries between 1950–2005, where the significance as well as the robustness of individual variables across different model specifications inform the conclusions.
144242469
Voter sincerity and the time-of-voting-decision
This article explores the relationship between vote sincerity and the time at which vote decisions are finalized. It posits that a specific set of competitive circumstances are necessary for insincere voting to occur, and that voters' understanding of these circumstances can be influenced by exposure to information during a campaign. The article introduces a new method of operationalizing a commonly overlooked type of insincere voting: the protest voter. As defined here, protest voters express their political dissatisfaction by supporting an uncompetitive non-traditional party that is not their first preference. Canadian Election Study data reveal that protest voters make up a small, but noteworthy segment of the electorate and that insincere voters tend to make their vote decisions relatively late.
153460716
Measuring strategic voting in multiparty plurality elections
Abstract We propose a method for measuring strategic voting in multiparty plurality elections, and we apply that method to the 1997 Canadian election. The first stage of the inquiry determines whether voters' expectations about the outcome of the election have an independent effect on vote choice, after controlling their preferences, more specifically their party identification and evaluations of parties and leaders. We show that in the 1997 Canadian election perceptions of the local race in the constituency did affect the vote, but not perceptions of the race for who would form the government and the official opposition. The second stage of the analysis consists in assessing for each respondent whether her vote was sincere or strategic: a respondent is deemed to have cast a strategic vote if whether her expectations about the outcome of the election are considered or not leads to a different prediction about which party she is most likely to support. On that basis, we estimate that about 3% of voters cast a strategic vote in the 1997 election.
152817381
The apartisan American : dealignment and changing electoral politics
The Apartisan American The Two Sides of the Dealignment Debate Do Partisans Go to Heaven? Mobilization and Democratic Citizenship Becoming Active in Politics Images of the Political Parties Making Candidate Choices Switchers, Splitters and Late Deciders Dealignment in Comparative Perspective Electoral Politics Past and Future
155087374
Cognitive Mobilization and Partisan Dealignment in Advanced Industrial Democracies
Theories of mass politics have stressed the value of partisanship in providing citizens with cues for political decision making. The expanding political skills and resources of contemporary electorates are, however, increasing the abilities of the public and lessening the need for partisan cues. A process of cognitive mobilization in advanced industrial societies is creating a substantial number of apartisans, sophisticated individuals who lack party ties. Data from an eight-nation survey document the correlates of changing mobilization patterns, and link these findings to a new style of dealigned politics.
91183476
Partisan Mobilization, Cognitive Mobilization and the Changing American Electorate
The concept of party identification has been central to our understanding of American electoral behavior. This research builds upon the functional logic of party identification and asks what occurs if citizens become better able to manage the complexities of politics without relying on habitual party cues. Using the data from the American National Election Studies, we track the distribution of party mobilization and cognitive mobilization within the American electorate. Then, we demonstrates the importance of these different mobilization patterns by documenting strong differences in the content of political thinking, voting choice, and electoral change. The results suggest a basic transformation in the characteristics of the American public since our the classic images of The American Voter, leading to a more differentiated and dealigned electorate.
153608510
Does political knowledge erode party attachments?: A review of the cognitive mobilization thesis
Abstract This article re-examines one of the most prominent theories explaining partisan dealignment in the advanced democracies: cognitive mobilization. Utilizing a diverse collection of cross-sectional and longitudinal data from a variety of countries, it is shown that measures of cognitive skills and access to mass media consistently predict an increase in the probability that a citizen will express an attachment to a party. What is more, this positive relationship is not diminishing over time. The essay concludes with a summary of key questions that remain about the relationship between political knowledge and party identification.
154364758
The Paradox of the Politically-Sophisticated Partisan: The French Case
The erosion of partisan ties observed in many advanced industrialised democracies has been attributed to a cluster of factors associated with societal modernisation. This article considers the impact of one of these explanatory factors, the political sophistication of the electorate, in the case of France. Specifically, it tests the proposition that a more highly-educated and better-informed electorate will be less partisan. Its findings challenge a number of the assumptions behind the ‘independent’ voter thesis. The evidence points to the fact that it is lower rather than higher cognitive mobilisation that is associated with apartisanship. More politically-sophisticated voters, young and old alike, tend to have stronger party attachment and to rely on this rather than on complex evaluations of issues and policy to guide their voting decision.
153469791
Bridging the ideological space: A cross‐national analysis of the distance of party switching
Scholars have investigated the characteristics of volatile voters ever since the first voter surveys were carried out and they have paid specific attention to the role of political sophistication on vote switching. Nevertheless, the exact nature of this relationship is still unclear. With increasing volatility over the past decades this question has furthermore grown in relevance. Is the growing unpredictability of elections mostly driven by sophisticated voters making well-considered choices or is the balance of power in the hands of unsophisticated �floating voters�? Several scholars have argued that even under conditions of increasing volatility switching is still mostly confined to changes to ideologically close parties. Most researchers, however, have used rather crude measures to investigate this �leap� between parties. To advance research in this field, this article directly models the ideological distance bridged by volatile voters when investigating the link between political sophistication and volatility. This is done using Comparative Study of Electoral systems (CSES) data that encompass a broad sample of recent parliamentary elections worldwide. Results indicate that voters with an intermediate level of political knowledge are most likely to switch overall. When taking into account the ideological distance of party switching, however, the confining impact of political knowledge on the vote choices made is clearly dominant, resulting in a linear decrease of the distance bridged as voters become more knowledgeable.
153678724
Stability and Change in Party Preference
This article analyses stability and volatility of party preferences using data from the Swiss Household-Panel (SHP), which, for the first time, allow studying transitions and stability of voters over several years in Switzerland. Analyses cover the years 1999- 2007 and systematically distinguish changes between party blocks and changes within party blocks. The first part looks at different patterns of change, which show relatively high volatility. The second part tests several theories on causes of such changes applying a multinomial random-effects model. Results show that party preferences stabilise with their duration and with age and that the electoral cycle, political sophistication, socio-structural predispositions, the household-context as well as party size and the number of parties each explain part of electoral volatility. Different results for withinand between party-block changes underlie the importance of that differentiation.
154853694
Retrospective Voting and Electoral Volatility: A Nordic Perspective
This article examines why people vote for the same party, switch parties or move from voting to non-voting at consecutive elections. By using post-election survey data from Iceland, Finland, Norway and Sweden in the beginning of the 2000s, the main aim is to model the impact of retrospective evaluations of party performance while controlling for theoretically relevant variables. The results of the multinomial regression analyses confirm that dissatisfaction with the performance of a party correlates strongly with party defection, and that the relationship is not weakened with the inclusion of variables for general dissatisfaction with the political system and its actors, standard background factors and political variables. This suggests that many voters are concerned with valence issues and value the overall competence of politicians and parties when they are making a decision whom to vote for.
145259502
Staying With the Party, Switching or Exiting? A Comparative Analysis of Determinants of Party Switching and Abstaining
Abstract A large body of literature has investigated the factors that lead to abstention on the one hand or vote volatility on the other hand. We argue in this paper that the most fruitful approach is to simultaneously consider the exit, voice, and loyalty options. The analyses are based on data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems and cover a broad set of advanced democracies. We demonstrate that while party switchers and abstainers have a lot in common, switching parties can be considered a more positive choice. Most importantly, contrary to what previous research suggested and in contrast to abstainers, party switchers cannot be characterized as frustrated with politics. Furthermore, the supply side does to a certain extent affect whether voters choose to remain loyal, switch parties, or abstain from voting.
154823442
How Many Voters Change Their Minds in the Month Preceding an Election?
This paper addresses a simple but basic question: How many voters change their mind during the month preceding an election? The question is simple and basic, yet the vast and rich literature on voting and elections has somehow managed to avoid it. Despite all the talk about the impact of campaigns, I have not come across estimates of how many people vote for a party other than the one they intended to support at the beginning of the campaign.
153421876
Of Time and Partisan Stability
IT IS A COMMONPLACE expectation that newly established social and political institutions somehow accumulate a deepening stability with the passage of time. In the very long run, of course, once-established institutions may obsolesce, evolve into new forms, or be more brusquely overturned. But the timing of these terminal events, embedded as they will be in a complex nexus of change, seems almost impossible to forecast at long range. What is utterly predictable, however, is that threats to the survival of a new institution will be very high in its infant stages. In the degree that it can outlast these first precarious periods, it will typically have put forth roots of sufficient strength so that challenges to its very being diminish in number and those that do occur are warded off with
154022586
Women, electoral volatility and political outcomes in Britain
The 1997 election represented a watershed in female electoral politics in Britain. Not only did the number of elected women MPs double that of its previous intake, rising from just 60 members in 1992 to 120 in 1997, but, for the first time in electoral history, women were systematically targeted by political parties as a primary source of electoral support. This was particularly case among floating voters, or women who were still undecided as to how they would vote just six weeks prior to the day of the election. Using the 1997 British Election Survey, this paper focuses on gender differences in electoral volatility and their consequences for female voting patterns. The results suggest that both Labour and the Liberal Democrats were correct in their decision to pay special attention to the female electorate. As a group, women were significantly more likely to delay their voting decision than men, and this greater volatility among the female electorate worked to the political advantage of both these parties.
153524604
Changing motivations, time of the voting decision, and short-term volatility – The dynamics of voter heterogeneity
The notion of “voter heterogeneity” – that different voters decide according to different sets of choice criteria – has become widely accepted. But while in a given election some voters are candidate-oriented and others are issue-oriented, little is known about the temporal dimension of heterogeneity: are candidate voters at t1 also candidate voters at t2? We argue that individual voters' motivations can change over time and expect that the extent of inter- as well as intra-individual heterogeneity impacts the process of individual decision-making. Using panel data collected in the run-up to the German Federal Election 2009 we demonstrate that certain choice motivations and intra-individual changes in these motivations lead to later vote decisions and contribute to the explanation of vote switching.
152611972
Electoral Change: Responses to Evolving Social and Attitudinal Structures in Western Countries
Part 1 Description: introduction, Mark Franklin, et al electoral change and social change, Tom Mackie and Mark Franklin. Part 2 Analysis: Australia, Ian McAllister Belgium, Tony Mughan Britain, Mark Franklin Canada, Harold Clarke and Marianne Stewart Denmark, Olle Borre France, Michael Lewis-Beck and Andrew Skalagan Federal Republic of Germany, Franz Papi and Peter Mnich Greece, Panayote Dimitras Ireland, Michael Marsh Italy, Tom Mackie, et al Netherlands, Crees Van Der Eijk and Kees Neimoller New Zealand, Clive Bean Norway, Henry Valen Spain, Thomas Lancaster Sweden, Maria Oskarson United States of America, Arthur Miller and Brad Lockerbie. Part 3 Assessment: the decline of cleavage politics, Mark Franklin cleavages, conflict resolution and democracy, Crees Van Der Eijk, et al.