53634260
The effect of ENSO-induced rainfall and circulation changes on the direct and indirect radiative forcing from Indonesian biomass-burning aerosols
Abstract. Emissions of biomass-burning aerosols from the Indonesian region are known to vary in response to rainfall anomalies associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For the severe El Nino-related drought in 1997, there have been several attempts to estimate the direct radiative forcing from increased aerosol emissions over Indonesia, as well as the associated feedbacks on climate. However, these estimates have not considered indirect aerosol effects. Another question that has not been addressed is whether the effect of ENSO-related circulation and rainfall anomalies on radiative forcing is significant relative to the effect of changes in emissions. In this study, we analyse the direct and first indirect radiative forcing from El Nino-related increased emissions of Indonesian biomass-burning aerosols, with and without the influence of ENSO-related rainfall and circulation anomalies. We compare two experiments that are performed with the CSIRO-Mk3.6 atmospheric global climate model (GCM). The first experiment (AMIP) consists of a pair of runs that respectively represent El Nino and La Nina conditions. In these runs, the distribution of aerosols is simulated under the influence of realistic Indonesian biomass-burning aerosol emissions and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for 1997 (El Nino) and 2000 (La Nina). The second experiment (CLIM) is identical to AMIP, but is forced by climatological SSTs, so that in CLIM meteorological differences between 1997 and 2000 are suppressed. The comparison of AMIP and CLIM shows that the aerosol radiative forcing anomalies associated with ENSO (El Nino minus La Nina) are substantially stronger when ENSO-related SST anomalies are taken into account. For the first indirect effect, the influence of SST-induced changes in rainfall and circulation exceeds that of changes in emissions. For the direct aerosol forcing, the influence of changes in SSTs and emissions are of comparable magnitude. Averaged over the Indonesian region (5.6° N–11.2° S, 96.6° E–150.9° E), the first indirect forcing is −0.7 Wm−2 in CLIM and −2.2 Wm−2 in AMIP during the months July to November. The direct aerosol forcing at the top of the atmosphere (surface) is −1.0 (−5.3) Wm−2 in CLIM and −1.8 (−9.1) Wm−2 in AMIP during the same period. Our results suggest that (a) the indirect aerosol effect from biomass-burning aerosols is strong enough to play an important role for impact assessments, and (b) that impacts of biomass-burning aerosols would be considerably underestimated if feedbacks of ENSO-related SST variations on radiative forcing are not taken into account.
129514005
Estimating the direct radiative forcing due to haze from the 1997 forest fires in Indonesia
[1] The El Nino event of 1997–1998 caused a severe reduction of rainfall in Indonesia that promoted the spread of forest fires, leading to a pervasive haze in the region. Here we use fire coverage data from the 1997 World Fire Atlas with a review of other available data and literature to estimate the distribution of particulate emissions from August to November 1997 and the particle size and radiative properties. Our preferred estimate of the total particulate emissions is approximately 41 Tg. The emissions have been used to drive an atmospheric model to simulate the distribution of the haze and its direct radiative effect, with and without allowing for the effects of the smoke on the atmospheric evolution. Model diagnostics of the aerosol and its radiative impact are compared with measurements and output from other models. Large decreases in the incident solar flux at the surface are obtained in the region. The simulated global mean shortwave radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere, averaged over the 4 months, is −0.32 Wm−2. The accuracy of this calculation is discussed, and the importance of the Indonesian fires in particular and of biomass burning in general is assessed.
130631271
Observational evidence for the radiative impact of Indonesian smoke in modulating the sea surface temperature of the equatorial Indian Ocean
[1] The smoke aerosol plume produced by intense forest fires over Indonesia during September–November 1997 provided a unique opportunity to investigate the radiative impact of aerosols on sea surface temperature (SST), primarily due to its episodic nature and occurrence of high aerosol optical depth (>0.8) for ∼2 months over the east equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO). The aerosol radiative effect was well discernible in SST because the month-to-month variation in shortwave aerosol direct cooling (ADC) was so large while the corresponding variations in the other governing factors such as surface wind and sea surface upwelling were less significant during this period, when the net cloud radiative forcing had a positive anomaly at the surface. The present study clearly shows that from September to October 1997, ADC at surface has increased by more than −46 Wm−2 over east EIO resulting a decrease in SST by >1°C. This might have provided a positive feedback to the Indian Ocean dipole influencing the meteorology of the south Asian region.
130924582
Indonesian Rainfall Variability: Impacts of ENSO and Local Air-Sea Interaction
Relationships between Indonesian rainfall and Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and circulation anomalies are investigated using observations for 1951-97. Indonesia receives significant rainfall year-round but experiences a wet season that peaks in January and a dry season that peaks in August. Dry season rainfall anomalies are spatially coherent, strongly correlated with SST, and tightly coupled to El Nino-Southern Oscil- lation (ENSO) variations in the Pacific basin. Drought conditions typically occur during El Nino, when SSTs surrounding Indonesia are cool and the Walker circulation is weakened, resulting in anomalous surface easterlies across Indonesia. The opposite tends to occur during La Nina. Broadscale Indonesian rainfall and SST anomalies tend to not persist from the dry season into the wet season. Rainfall in the heart of the wet season tends to be uncorrelated with SST and spatially incoherent. Seasonally varying feedback between Indonesian SST, winds, and rainfall explains the growth, persistence, and coherence of the local anomalies during the dry season and their decay or change in sign once the wet season commences. During the dry season anomalous surface easterlies, remotely driven by warm SSTs in the central Pacific during El Nino, act to increase local wind speed, cooling the ocean surrounding and to the east of Indonesia and thereby increasing the anomalous SST gradient across the Pacific. Hence, local rainfall and the Walker circulation are further reduced. Once the wet season commences and the climatological surface winds across Indonesia shift from southeasterly to northwesterly, the anomalous surface easterlies now act to reduce the wind speed. The initial cold SST anomaly is damped, reducing the negative rainfall anomalies and surface easterlies. The opposite scenario occurs during La Nina. Indonesian rainfall variations during the dry season are also coupled to the development of an anomalous zonal SST gradient in the equatorial Indian Ocean. This anomalous gradient is strongly related to ENSO and is most prominent during the dry season. Once the wet season commences, the entire Indian Ocean tends to have the same-signed SST anomaly (positive during El Nino and negative during La Nina). Development and decay of this anomalous zonal SST gradient in the Indian Ocean is promoted by seasonally varying air-sea interaction in the eastern Indian Ocean in response to ENSO conditions in the Pacific. The eastern Indian Ocean SST changes are driven largely by induced surface heat flux variations (primarily changes in latent heat flux and net shortwave radiation). Biennial variations in the Indonesian region may also be induced by this seasonally varying air-sea interaction associated with ENSO.
153430786
Climate anomalies, Indonesian vegetation fires and terrestrial carbon emissions
There was a widespread misconception about the causes of vegetation and land fires in Indonesia. At a certain point, the public perceived that fires and the associated haze pollution were primarily caused by smallholders' agricultural activities. In fact, there was a variety of land-use activities including large-scale land clearing following deforestation for further land development. El Niño events and the associated dry weather were sometimes quoted by officials and the media as the cause of fires. The fire episodes from 1980 to 2000 were analysed in connection with climate anomalies and the implementation of land-use policies related to forest conversions. The analysis employs long-term climatic and sea surface temperature data to reconstruct climate distributions and anomalies including Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR). In this study, the terrestrial carbon emissions from vegetation fires were estimated based on official statistical data on area burnt. The possible incentives for sustainable land management were discussed in the light of fire prevention. The underlying cause neglected in the discussion of Indonesian vegetation fires was forest and land development policy. Legitimated in the early 1980s, it drove massive forest conversions and the use of fires for land clearing. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) provided dry weather suitable for biomass burning and widespread fire, but it was hardly the cause of fires. The estimate of area burnt in the big fires in 1997 was about 11.6 Mha, resulting in carbon release of 1.45 Gt, equivalent to 0.73 ppmv of CO2, or almost half the annual global atmospheric CO2 growth. Based on the current carbon market price such emissions by the 1997 fire episode were worth around US$ 3.6 billion.
4427627
A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean
For the tropical Pacific and Atlantic oceans, internal modes of variability that lead to climatic oscillations have been recognized, but in the Indian Ocean region a similar ocean–atmosphere interaction causing interannual climate variability has not yet been found. Here we report an analysis of observational data over the past 40 years, showing a dipole mode in the Indian Ocean: a pattern of internal variability with anomalously low sea surface temperatures off Sumatra and high sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean, with accompanying wind and precipitation anomalies. The spatio-temporal links between sea surface temperatures and winds reveal a strong coupling through the precipitation field and ocean dynamics. This air–sea interaction process is unique and inherent in the Indian Ocean, and is shown to be independent of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. The discovery of this dipole mode that accounts for about 12% of the sea surface temperature variability in the Indian Ocean—and, in its active years, also causes severe rainfall in eastern Africa and droughts in Indonesia—brightens the prospects for a long-term forecast of rainfall anomalies in the affected countries.
205033630
Coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamics in the Indian Ocean during 1997–98
Climate variability in the Indian Ocean region seems to be, in some aspects, independent of forcing by external phenomena such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. But the extent to which, and how, internal coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamics determine the state of the Indian Ocean system have not been resolved. Here we present a detailed analysis of the strong seasonal anomalies in sea surface temperatures, sea surface heights, precipitation and winds that occurred in the Indian Ocean region in 1997–98, and compare the results with the record of Indian Ocean climate variability over the past 40 years. We conclude that the 1997–98 anomalies—in spite of the coincidence with the strong El Niño/Southern Oscillation event—may primarily be an expression of internal dynamics, rather than a direct response to external influences. We propose a mechanism of ocean–atmosphere interaction governing the 1997–98 event that may represent a characteristic internal mode of the Indian Ocean climate system. In the Pacific Ocean, the identification of such a mode has led to successful predictions of El Niño; if the proposed Indian Ocean internal mode proves to be robust, there may be a similar potential for predictability of climate in the Indian Ocean region.
129141181
The 1997 fires in Kalimantan and Sumatra, Indonesia : Gaseous and particulate emissions
Extensive and widespread vegetation and peat fires swept throughout Kalimantan and Sumatra, Indonesia, from August 1997 through March 1998. The fires resulted from routine burning for land clearing and land-use change. However, the severe drought conditions resulting from El Nino caused small land-clearing fires to become large uncontrolled wildfires. Analysis of SPOT images indicate that a total of 45,600 km² burned between August and December 1997. In this paper, the gaseous and particulate emissions resulting from the 1997 fires are estimated. On a daily basis, the calculated emissions of CO2, CO, CH4, NOx, and particulates from the Kalimantan and Sumatra fires of 1997 significantly exceeded the emissions from the Kuwait oil fires of 1991.
120098548
Impact of Indonesian forest fires during the 1997 El Nino on the aerosol distribution over the Indian Ocean
Abstract The El Nino event of 1997–1998 followed by the La Nina in 1998–1999 was the strongest of its kind encountered in the 20th century. Associated with this event Indonesia experienced severe drought leading to large-scale forest fires. Large aerosol plumes from these fires advected over the equatorial Indian Ocean region. Development and decay of this plume and its regional transport are studied using the aerosol optical depth derived from the NOAA14-AVHRR data along with the tropospheric circulation and meteorological conditions derived from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The study shows that associated with the large-scale fires in the Indonesian region, a substantially large aerosol plume formed over the equatorial Indian Ocean in the latitude range of 5°N to 10°S, during September–November period of 1997. This plume was confined to the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean in September, and reached up to about 60°E by October. The westward transport of this aerosol plume was driven by the anomalous easterly winds over the tropical Indian Ocean during the El Nino period. A close association is observed between the aerosol optical depth over equatorial Indian Ocean and the fire counts over Southeast Asia derived from Along Track Scanning Radiometer data.
4379529
The amount of carbon released from peat and forest fires in Indonesia during 1997
Tropical peatlands are one of the largest near-surface reserves of terrestrial organic carbon, and hence their stability has important implications for climate change. In their natural state, lowland tropical peatlands support a luxuriant growth of peat swamp forest overlying peat deposits up to 20 metres thick. Persistent environmental change—in particular, drainage and forest clearing—threatens their stability, and makes them susceptible to fire. This was demonstrated by the occurrence of widespread fires throughout the forested peatlands of Indonesia during the 1997 El Niño event. Here, using satellite images of a 2.5 million hectare study area in Central Kalimantan, Borneo, from before and after the 1997 fires, we calculate that 32% (0.79 Mha) of the area had burned, of which peatland accounted for 91.5% (0.73 Mha). Using ground measurements of the burn depth of peat, we estimate that 0.19–0.23 gigatonnes (Gt) of carbon were released to the atmosphere through peat combustion, with a further 0.05 Gt released from burning of the overlying vegetation. Extrapolating these estimates to Indonesia as a whole, we estimate that between 0.81 and 2.57 Gt of carbon were released to the atmosphere in 1997 as a result of burning peat and vegetation in Indonesia. This is equivalent to 13–40% of the mean annual global carbon emissions from fossil fuels, and contributed greatly to the largest annual increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration detected since records began in 1957 (ref. 1).
18328444
Aerosols, Climate, and the Hydrological Cycle
Human activities are releasing tiny particles (aerosols) into the atmosphere. These human-made aerosols enhance scattering and absorption of solar radiation. They also produce brighter clouds that are less efficient at releasing precipitation. These in turn lead to large reductions in the amount of solar irradiance reaching Earth's surface, a corresponding increase in solar heating of the atmosphere, changes in the atmospheric temperature structure, suppression of rainfall, and less efficient removal of pollutants. These aerosol effects can lead to a weaker hydrological cycle, which connects directly to availability and quality of fresh water, a major environmental issue of the 21st century.
38775031
Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997-2009)
Abstract. New burned area datasets and top-down constraints from atmospheric concentration measurements of pyrogenic gases have decreased the large uncertainty in fire emissions estimates. However, significant gaps remain in our understanding of the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural waste, and peat fires to total global fire emissions. Here we used a revised version of the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford-Approach (CASA) biogeochemical model and improved satellite-derived estimates of area burned, fire activity, and plant productivity to calculate fire emissions for the 1997–2009 period on a 0.5° spatial resolution with a monthly time step. For November 2000 onwards, estimates were based on burned area, active fire detections, and plant productivity from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor. For the partitioning we focused on the MODIS era. We used maps of burned area derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS) and Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) active fire data prior to MODIS (1997–2000) and estimates of plant productivity derived from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) observations during the same period. Average global fire carbon emissions according to this version 3 of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED3) were 2.0 Pg C year−1 with significant interannual variability during 1997–2001 (2.8 Pg C year−1 in 1998 and 1.6 Pg C year−1 in 2001). Globally, emissions during 2002–2007 were relatively constant (around 2.1 Pg C year−1) before declining in 2008 (1.7 Pg C year−1) and 2009 (1.5 Pg C year−1) partly due to lower deforestation fire emissions in South America and tropical Asia. On a regional basis, emissions were highly variable during 2002–2007 (e.g., boreal Asia, South America, and Indonesia), but these regional differences canceled out at a global level. During the MODIS era (2001–2009), most carbon emissions were from fires in grasslands and savannas (44%) with smaller contributions from tropical deforestation and degradation fires (20%), woodland fires (mostly confined to the tropics, 16%), forest fires (mostly in the extratropics, 15%), agricultural waste burning (3%), and tropical peat fires (3%). The contribution from agricultural waste fires was likely a lower bound because our approach for measuring burned area could not detect all of these relatively small fires. Total carbon emissions were on average 13% lower than in our previous (GFED2) work. For reduced trace gases such as CO and CH4, deforestation, degradation, and peat fires were more important contributors because of higher emissions of reduced trace gases per unit carbon combusted compared to savanna fires. Carbon emissions from tropical deforestation, degradation, and peatland fires were on average 0.5 Pg C year−1. The carbon emissions from these fires may not be balanced by regrowth following fire. Our results provide the first global assessment of the contribution of different sources to total global fire emissions for the past decade, and supply the community with an improved 13-year fire emissions time series.
2920221
Have Australian rainfall and cloudiness increased due to the remote effects of Asian anthropogenic aerosols
[1] There is ample evidence that anthropogenic aerosols have important effects on climate in the Northern Hemisphere but little such evidence in the Southern Hemisphere. Observations of Australian rainfall and cloudiness since 1950 show increases over much of the continent. We show that including anthropogenic aerosol changes in 20th century simulations of a global climate model gives increasing rainfall and cloudiness over Australia during 1951–1996, whereas omitting this forcing gives decreasing rainfall and cloudiness. The pattern of increasing rainfall when aerosols are included is strongest over northwestern Australia, in agreement with the observed trends. The strong impact of aerosols is primarily due to the massive Asian aerosol haze, as confirmed by a sensitivity test in which only Asian anthropogenic aerosols are included. The Asian haze alters the meridional temperature and pressure gradients over the tropical Indian Ocean, thereby increasing the tendency of monsoonal winds to flow toward Australia. Anthropogenic aerosols also make the simulated pattern of surface-temperature change in the tropical Pacific more like La Nina, since they induce a cooling of the surface waters in the extratropical North Pacific, which are then transported to the tropical eastern Pacific via the deep ocean. Transient climate model simulations forced only by increased greenhouse gases have generally not reproduced the observed rainfall increase over northwestern and central Australia. Our results suggest that a possible reason for this failure was the omission of forcing by Asian aerosols. Further research is essential to more accurately quantify the role of Asian aerosols in forcing Australian climate change.
46152332
Aerosols, Cloud Microphysics, and Fractional Cloudiness
Increases in aerosol concentrations over the oceans may increase the amount of low-level cloudiness through a reduction in drizzle—a process that regulates the liquid-water content and the energetics of shallow marine clouds. The resulting increase in the global albedo would be in addition to the increase due to enhancement in reflectivity associated with a decrease in droplet size and would contribute to a cooling of the earth's surface.
96178698
A model study of smoke-haze influence on clouds and warm precipitation formation in Indonesia 1997/1998
Abstract In the last few decades, fire and smoke-haze occurrence increased in Indonesia by intentionally set land clearing fires and higher fire susceptibility of disturbed forests. Particularly, during El Nino years with prolonged droughts in Indonesia, land clearing fires become uncontrolled wildfires and produce large amounts of gaseous and particulate emissions. This paper investigates the influence of smoke-haze aerosols from such fires on clouds and precipitation over Indonesia during the El Nino event 1997/1998 by numerical modelling. Warm precipitation formation in both layered and convective clouds is calculated dependent on the atmospheric aerosol concentration. In the smoke-haze affected regions of Indonesia, aerosol–cloud interactions induce events with both precipitation suppression and increase compared to a reference simulation without aerosol–cloud interactions. The effect of precipitation suppression is found to dominate with about 2/3 of all precipitation modification events pointing to a prolongation of smoke-haze episodes. The corresponding convective cloud top height of shallow clouds is increased whereas distinct lower deep convective cloud top heights are found. The remaining about 1/3 events are characterised by increased precipitation and cloud liquid water content, accompanied by lower convective cloud top heights of shallow clouds and higher deep convective clouds.
209833697
Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES): An Earth Observing System Experiment
Abstract Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) is an investigation to examine the role of cloud/radiation feedback in the Earth's climate system. The CERES broadband scanning radiometers are an improved version of the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) radiometers. The CERES instruments will fly on several National Aeronautics and Space Administration Earth Observing System (EOS) satellites starting in 1998 and extending over at least 15 years. The CERES science investigations will provide data to extend the ERBE climate record of top-of-atmosphere shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiative fluxes. CERES will also combine simultaneous cloud property data derived using EOS narrowband imagers to provide a consistent set of cloud/radiation data, including SW and LW radiative fluxes at the surface and at several selected levels within the atmosphere. CERES data are expected to provide top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes with a factor of 2 to 3 less error than the ERBE data. Estimates of ra...
129435338
The radiative influence of aerosol effects on liquid-phase cumulus and stratiform clouds based on sensitivity studies with two climate models
Aerosol effects on warm (liquid-phase) cumulus cloud systems may have a strong radiative influence via suppression of precipitation in convective systems. A consequence of this suppression of precipitation is increased liquid water available for large-scale stratiform clouds, through detrainment, that in turn affect their precipitation efficiency. The nature of this influence on radiation, however, is dependent on both the treatment of convective condensate and the aerosol distribution. Here, we examine these issues with two climate models—CSIRO and GISS, which treat detrained condensate differently. Aerosol–cloud interactions in warm stratiform and cumulus clouds (via cloud droplet formation and autoconversion) are treated similarly in both models. The influence of aerosol–cumulus cloud interactions on precipitation and radiation are examined via simulations with present-day and pre-industrial aerosol emissions. Sensitivity tests are also conducted to examine changes to climate due to changes in cumulus cloud droplet number (Nc); the main connection between aerosols and cumulus cloud microphysics. Results indicate that the CSIRO GCM is quite sensitive to changes in aerosol concentrations such that an increase in aerosols increases Nc, cloud cover, total liquid water path (LWP) and reduces total precipitation and net cloud radiative forcings. On the other hand, the radiative fluxes in the GISS GCM appear to have minimal changes despite an increase in aerosols and Nc. These differences between the two models—reduced total LWP in the GISS GCM for increased aerosols, opposite to that seen in CSIRO—appear to be more sensitive to the detrainment of convective condensate, rather than to changes in Nc. If aerosols suppress convective precipitation as noted in some observationally based studies (but not currently treated in most climate models), the consequence of this change in LWP suggests that: (1) the aerosol indirect effect (calculated as changes to net cloud radiative forcing from anthropogenic aerosols) may be higher than previously calculated or (2) lower than previously calculated. Observational constrains on these results are difficult to obtain and hence, until realistic cumulus-scale updrafts are implemented in models, the logic of detraining non-precipitating condensate at appropriate levels based on updrafts and its effects on radiation, will remain an uncertainty.
54755625
Indonesian peat and vegetation fire emissions: Study on factors influencing large-scale smoke haze pollution using a regional atmospheric chemistry model
Numerical modelling of fire-related smoke haze episodes in Southeast Asia is important for both prediction and assessment of atmospheric impacts, especially when observational data are fragmentary, as is the case in Indonesia. This work describes the atmospheric fate of smoke particles emitted during the 1997 Indonesian fires modelled with a regional atmospheric chemistry model. We established a new fire emission inventory and calculate that 55 teragram (Tg) of particulate matter and 1098 Tg of carbon were released during this fire episode. Our emission estimate is an intermediate value compared with other studies. Utilising different scenarios, we demonstrate the variable atmospheric impacts of surface vegetation fires and peat soil fires separately and also investigate the sensitivity of smoke dispersion to the differing meteorological conditions of an El Niño and a normal year. When peat fires are included in the emission inventory, modelled ambient particle concentrations exceed the ambient air quality standard across transboundary scales. In a scenario including only surface vegetation fires, ambient air quality standards are exceeded only in areas close to the main fires. This scenario demonstrates the prominent role of fires in peat areas in causing regional air pollution episodes. In years with normal meteorological conditions, intermittent precipitation and associated wet deposition during the dry season are predicted to remove most of the particulate emissions close to the sources. Strongly reduced rainfall and generally stronger southeasterly winds during El Niño years provide favourable conditions for larger scale smoke haze pollution.
73708888
Total aerosol effect: forcing or radiative flux perturbation
Uncertainties in aerosol forcings, especially those associated with clouds, contribute to a large extent to uncertainties in the total anthropogenic forcing. The interaction of aerosols with clouds and radiation introduces feedbacks which can affect the rate of rain formation. Traditionally these feedbacks were not included in estimates of total aerosol forcing. Here we argue that they should be included because these feedbacks act quickly compared with the time scale of global 5 warming. We show that for different forcing agents (aerosols and greenhouse gases) the radiative forcings as traditionally defined agree rather well with estimates from a method, here referred to as radiative flux perturbations (RFP), that takes these fast feedbacks and interactions into account. Thus we propose replacing the direct and indirect aerosol forcing in the IPCC forcing chart with RFP estimates. This implies that it is better to evaluate the total anthropogenic aerosol effect as a 10 whole.
53866276
An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design
The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) will produce a state-of-the- art multimodel dataset designed to advance our knowledge of climate variability and climate change. Researchers worldwide are analyzing the model output and will produce results likely to underlie the forthcoming Fifth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Unprecedented in scale and attracting interest from all major climate modeling groups, CMIP5 includes “long term” simulations of twentieth-century climate and projections for the twenty-first century and beyond. Conventional atmosphere–ocean global climate models and Earth system models of intermediate complexity are for the first time being joined by more recently developed Earth system models under an experiment design that allows both types of models to be compared to observations on an equal footing. Besides the longterm experiments, CMIP5 calls for an entirely new suite of “near term” simulations focusing on recent decades...
128989342
Sources and distributions of dust aerosols simulated with the GOCART model
The global distribution of dust aerosol is simulated with the Georgia Tech/Goddard Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model. In this model all topographic lows with bare ground surface are assumed to have accumulated sediments which are potential dust sources. The uplifting of dust particles is expressed as a function of surface wind speed and wetness. The GOCART model is driven by the assimilated meteorological fields from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS) which facilitates direct comparison with observations. The model includes seven size classes of mineral dust ranging from 0.1–6 μm radius. The total annual emission is estimated to be between 1604 and 1960 Tg yr−1 in a 5-year simulation. The model has been evaluated by comparing simulation results with ground-based measurements and satellite data. The evaluation has been performed by comparing surface concentrations, vertical distributions, deposition rates, optical thickness, and size distributions. The comparisons show that the model results generally agree with the observations without the necessity of invoking any contribution from anthropogenic disturbances to soils. However, the model overpredicts the transport of dust from the Asian sources to the North Pacific. This discrepancy is attributed to an overestimate of small particle emission from the Asian sources.
54826229
Aerosol- and greenhouse gas-induced changes in summer rainfall and circulation in the Australasian region: a study using single-forcing climate simulations
Abstract. We use a coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate model (CSIRO-Mk3.6) to investigate the drivers of trends in summer rainfall and circulation in the vicinity of northern Australia. As part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we perform a 10-member 21st century ensemble driven by Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). To investigate the roles of different forcing agents, we also perform multiple 10-member ensembles of historical climate change, which are analysed for the period 1951–2010. The historical runs include ensembles driven by "all forcings" (HIST), all forcings except anthropogenic aerosols (NO_AA) and forcing only from long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGAS). Anthropogenic aerosol-induced effects in a warming climate are calculated from the difference of HIST minus NO_AA. CSIRO-Mk3.6 simulates a strong summer rainfall decrease over north-western Australia (NWA) in RCP4.5, whereas simulated trends in HIST are weakly positive (but insignificant) during 1951–2010. The weak rainfall trends in HIST are due to compensating effects of different forcing agents: there is a significant decrease in GHGAS, offset by an aerosol-induced increase. Observations show a significant increase of summer rainfall over NWA during the last few decades. The large magnitude of the observed NWA rainfall trend is not captured by 440 unforced 60-yr trends calculated from a 500-yr pre-industrial control run, even though the model's decadal variability appears to be realistic. This suggests that the observed trend includes a forced component, despite the fact that the model does not simulate the magnitude of the observed rainfall increase in response to "all forcings" (HIST). We investigate the mechanism of simulated and observed NWA rainfall changes by exploring changes in circulation over the Indo-Pacific region. The key circulation feature associated with the rainfall increase in reanalyses is a lower-tropospheric cyclonic circulation trend off the coast of NWA, which enhances the monsoonal flow. The model shows an aerosol-induced cyclonic circulation trend off the coast of NWA in HIST minus NO_AA, whereas GHGAS shows an anticyclonic circulation trend. This explains why the aerosol-induced effect is an increase of rainfall over NWA, and the greenhouse gas-induced effect is of opposite sign. Possible explanations for the cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation trend in HIST minus NO_AA (GHGAS) involve changes in the Walker circulation or the local Hadley circulation. In either case, a plausible atmospheric mechanism is that the circulation anomaly is a Rossby wave response to convective heating anomalies south of the Equator. We also discuss the possible role of air-sea interactions, e.g. an increase (decrease) of sea-surface temperatures off the coast of NWA in HIST minus NO_AA (GHGAS). Further research is needed to better understand the mechanisms and the extent to which these are model-dependent. In summary, our results suggest that anthropogenic aerosols may have "masked" greenhouse gas-induced changes in rainfall over NWA and in circulation over the wider Indo-Pacific region. Due to the opposing effects of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols, future trends may be very different from trends observed over the last few decades.
8333980
Historical (1850–2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: methodology and application
We present and discuss a new dataset of gridded emissions covering the historical period (1850–2000) in decadal increments at a horizontal resolution of 0.5° in latitude and longitude. The primary purpose of this inventory is to provide consistent gridded emissions of reactive gases and aerosols for use in chemistry model simulations needed by climate models for the Climate Model Intercomparison Program #5 (CMIP5) in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Our best estimate for the year 2000 inventory represents a combination of existing regional and global inventories to capture the best information available at this point; 40 regions and 12 sectors are used to combine the various sources. The historical reconstruction of each emitted compound, for each region and sector, is then forced to agree with our 2000 estimate, ensuring continuity between past and 2000 emissions. Simulations from two chemistry-climate models is used to test the ability of the emission dataset described here to capture long-term changes in atmospheric ozone, carbon monoxide and aerosol distributions. The simulated long-term change in the Northern mid-latitudes surface and mid-troposphere ozone is not quite as rapid as observed. However, stations outside this latitude band show much better agreement in both present-day and long-term trend. The model simulations indicate that the concentration of carbon monoxide is underestimated at the Mace Head station; however, the long-term trend over the limited observational period seems to be reasonably well captured. The simulated sulfate and black carbon deposition over Greenland is in very good agreement with the ice-core observations spanning the simulation period. Finally, aerosol optical depth and additional aerosol diagnostics are shown to be in good agreement with previously published estimates and observations.
5258012
Emissions of primary aerosol and precursor gases in the years 2000 and 1750 prescribed data-sets for AeroCom
Inventories for global aerosol and aerosol precursor emissions have been collected (based on published inventories and published simulations), assessed and prepared for the year 2000 (present-day conditions) and for the year 1750 (pre-industrial conditions). These global datasets establish a comprehensive source for emission input to global modeling, when simulating the aerosol impact on climate with state-of-the-art aerosol component modules. As these modules stratify aerosol into dust, sea-salt, sulfate, organic matter and soot, for all these aerosol types global fields on emission strength and recommendations for injection altitude and particulate size are provided. Temporal resolution varies between daily (dust and sea-salt), monthly (wild-land fires) and annual (all other emissions). These datasets benchmark aerosol emissions according to the knowledge in the year 2004. They are intended to serve as systematic constraints in sensitivity studies of the AeroCom initiative, which seeks to quantify (actual) uncertainties in aerosol global modeling.
97954261
Simulation of the tropospheric sulfur cycle in a global climate model
Abstract Emission, transport, chemistry and rainout of the sulfur species DMS, SO2 and sulfate are calculated on-line with the meteorology in a global atmospheric circulation model. The model simulates the main components of the hydrological cycle, including the liquid water content of clouds, and hence it allows an explicit treatment of cloud transformation processes and precipitation scavenging. The importance of the different oxidation pathways of DMS and SO2 is estimated. About 2 3 of the sulfate is produced within clouds, with H2O2 being the most efficient pathway (59%) and with a minor contribution due to oxidation with O3 (7%). Predicted atmospheric surface concentrations of SO2 and sulfate and the deposition fluxes are compared with the observations. Over most parts of the globe the agreement between simulated and observed annual averages is within a factor of 2. A significant underestimate of the simulated sulfate concentrations was found in high latitudes in winter. This bias may be attributed to a too slow oxidation in clouds. The calculated global mean turn-over times for DMS (2.2 d), SO2 (1.6 d) and sulfate (4.4 d) are within the range of previous estimates.
129161395
Simulation of the tropospheric sulfur cycle in a global model with a physically based cloud scheme
rewritten to better reflect the different properties of liquid and frozen precipitation, and the treatment of these in the model’s cloud microphysical scheme. The model is able to reproducetheobservedfinding thatwetdepositionofsulfuroverEuropeandNorthAmerica is larger in summer than in winter, but the seasonal cycle of sulfate over Europe is not well simulated. The latter is improved when the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of European emissions is increased. Below-cloud scavenging makes an important contribution in our scheme: On omitting it, the global sulfate burden increases from 0.67 to 0.93 Tg S. On reverting to the less efficient scavenging treatment used in ECHAM, the global sulfate burden again increases from 0.67 to 0.93 Tg S, and excessive sulfate concentrations are obtained in Europe and North America. Some deficiencies in the simulation are investigated viafurthersensitivitytests.Inparticular,duringtheArcticwinter,themodeledsulfurdioxide (SO2) concentrations are too large, and the modeled sulfate concentrations are too small (as in most global sulfur-cycle models). Recent laboratory experiments suggest that SO2 oxidationinicecloudsisnonnegligible.WeobtainamuchimprovedArcticsimulationwhen a simple treatment of SO2 oxidation in ice clouds is included. INDEX TERMS: 0305 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Aerosols and particles (0345, 4801); 0320 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Cloud physics and chemistry; 3337 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Numerical modeling and data assimilation; KEYWORDS: sulfur cycle, global climate model, sulfate aerosol, scavenging, cloud, precipitation Citation: Rotstayn, L. D., and U. Lohmann, Simulation of the tropospheric sulfur cycle in a global model with a physically based cloud scheme, J. Geophys. Res., 107(D21), 4592, doi:10.1029/2002JD002128, 2002.
121937519
Economical Determination of Departure Points for Semi-Lagrangian Models
Abstract An Eulerian procedure that avoids both interpolation and iteration is proposed for determining the departure points of trajectories. It is applicable to semi-Lagrangian models formulated either on the plane or on the sphere. The technique can achieve a high degree of accuracy; it is also simpler and more economical than other schemes, especially when applied on the sphere. The technique is applied to the cone advection test on the plane, as well as to a “Gaussian hill” problem on a rotating sphere.
124924993
A Mass Flux Convection Scheme with Representation of Cloud Ensemble Characteristics and Stability-Dependent Closure
Abstract The convection scheme used at the UK Meteorological Office in large-scale numerical models is described. The scheme uses a “bulk” cloud model to represent an ensemble of convective clouds and aims to represent shallow, deep and midlevel convection. A simple closure is employed, the initial convective mass flux being related to the stability of the initial convecting layer. The ability of the scheme to represent convective processes in a variety of situations is evaluated using GATE, BOMEX, and ATEX data. In each case realistic heating rates are simulated and although the closure of the scheme does not demand a balance between convective and large-scale forcings as in many other types of convection scheme (for example the Arakawa–Schubert scheme), a quasi-equilibrium is established while retaining realistic atmospheric structure. The performance of the scheme in an 11-layer atmospheric general circulation model used in climate research at the UK Meteorological Office is also evaluated by comparing...
120145185
A physically based scheme for the treatment of stratiform clouds and precipitation in large-scale models. I: Description and evaluation of the microphysical processes
A stratiform-cloud and precipitation scheme, incorporating prognostic variables for cloud liquid water and cloud ice, has been developed for the CSIRO global climate model (GCM). the scheme includes physically based treatments of key microphysical processes, turbulent mixing and semi-Lagrangian advection of cloud-water species and interactive cloud radiative properties. Objectives in the development of the scheme were to improve upon the physical realism of parametrizations used in earlier schemes, whilst also trying to provide a scheme with moderate computational overheads. 
 
The parametrized microphysical processes are evaluated in relation to observations and theory, and are compared to treatments used in earlier schemes in a series of short GCM experiments. It is argued that the treatment of precipitation formation in warm, and mixed-phase, stratiform clouds is more realistic in the present scheme than in earlier schemes, which used crude methods for the parametrization of autoconversion, and did not treat key ice-processes in a consistent way. In the present scheme, accretion processes are more important, whereas autoconversion is less important than in earlier schemes. 
 
To determine whether the cloud scheme requires the use of a reduced (split) time-step, the sensitivity of the various terms to the time-step is evaluated in another series of short GCM experiments. It is shown that the various terms are not very sensitive to the time-step, so the scheme can be efficiently implemented without the use of a split time-step. Overall, analytical or time-centred treatments perform better than implicit or explicit schemes, especially in the calculation of the precipitation of cloud ice, where only an accurate analytical treatment is found to perform satisfactorily at large time-steps. 
 
As a preliminary validation of the scheme, zonal-mean fields from a six-year model-run are presented for the month of July. the results generally agree well with observations; in particular, the modelled cloudiness and long-wave cloud-forcing fields are more realistic than those obtained with the standard version of the CSIRO GCM.
127752800
Erratum: ``Prediction of the number of cloud droplets in the ECHAM GCM''
In this paper a prognostic equation for the number of cloud droplets (CDNC) is introduced into the ECHAM general circulation model. The initial CDNC is based on the mechanistic model of Chuang and Penner [1995], providing a more realistical prediction of CDNC than the empirical method previously used. Cloud droplet nucleation is parameterized as a function of total aerosol number concentration, updraft velocity, and a shape parameter, which takes the aerosol composition and size distribution into account. The total number of aerosol particles is obtained as the sum of marine sulfate aerosols produced from dimethyl sulfide, hydrophylic organic and black carbon, submicron dust, and sea-salt aerosols. Anthropogenic sulfate aerosols only add mass to the preexisting aerosols but do not form new particles. The simulated annual mean liquid water path, column CDNC, and effective radius agree well with observations, as does the frequency distributions of column CDNC for clouds over oceans and the variations of cloud optical depth with effective radius.
51920110
Simulated enhancement of ENSO-related rainfall variability due to Australian dust
Abstract. Australian dust emissions are highly episodic, and this may increase the importance of Australian dust as a climate feedback agent. We compare two 160-year coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations of modern-day climate using the CSIRO Mark 3.6 global climate model (GCM). The first run (DUST) includes an interactive treatment of mineral dust and its direct radiative effects. The second run (NODUST) is otherwise identical, but has the Australian dust source set to zero. We focus on the austral spring season, when the correlation between rainfall and the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is strongest over Australia. The ENSO-rainfall relationship over eastern Australia is stronger in the DUST run: dry (El Nino) years tend to be drier, and wet (La Nina) years wetter. The amplification of ENSO-related rainfall variability over eastern Australia represents an improvement relative to observations. The effect is driven by ENSO-related anomalies in radiative forcing by Australian dust over the south-west Pacific Ocean; these anomalies increase (decrease) surface evaporation in La Nina (El Nino) years. Some of this moisture is advected towards eastern Australia, where increased (decreased) moisture convergence in La Nina (El Nino) years increases the amplitude of ENSO-related rainfall variability. The modulation of surface evaporation by dust over the south-west Pacific occurs via surface radiative forcing and dust-induced stabilisation of the boundary layer. The results suggest that (1) a realistic treatment of Australian dust may be necessary for accurate simulation of the ENSO-rainfall relationship over Australia, and (2) radiative feedbacks involving dust may be important for understanding natural rainfall variability over Australia.
131445653
Sensitivity of the first indirect aerosol effect to an increase of cloud droplet spectral dispersion with droplet number concentration
Observations show that an increase in anthropogenic aerosols leads to concurrent increases in the cloud droplet concentration and the relative dispersion of the cloud droplet spectrum, other factors being equal. It has been suggested that the increase in effective radius resulting from increased relative dispersion may substantially negate the indirect aerosol effect, but this is usually not parameterized in global climate models (GCMs). Empirical parameterizations, designed to represent the average of this effect, as well as its lower and upper bounds, are tested in the CSIRO GCM. Compared to a control simulation, in which the relative dispersion of the cloud droplet spectrum is prescribed separately over land and ocean, inclusion of this effect reduces the magnitude of the first indirect aerosol effect by between 12% and 35%.
4513018
Dispersion bias, dispersion effect, and the aerosol–cloud conundrum
This work examines the influences of relative dispersion (the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean radius of the cloud droplet size distribution) on cloud albedo and cloud radiative forcing, derives an analytical formulation that accounts explicitly for the contribution from droplet concentration and relative dispersion, and presents a new approach to parameterize relative dispersion in climate models. It is shown that inadequate representation of relative dispersion in climate models leads to an overestimation of cloud albedo, resulting in a negative bias of global mean shortwave cloud radiative forcing that can be comparable to the warming caused by doubling CO2 in magnitude, and that this dispersion bias is likely near its maximum for ambient clouds. Relative dispersion is empirically expressed as a function of the quotient between cloud liquid water content and droplet concentration (i.e., water per droplet), yielding an analytical formulation for the first aerosol indirect effect. Further analysis of the new expression reveals that the dispersion effect not only offsets the cooling from the Twomey effect, but is also proportional to the Twomey effect in magnitude. These results suggest that unrealistic representation of relative dispersion in cloud parameterization in general, and evaluation of aerosol indirect effects in particular, is at least in part responsible for several outstanding puzzles of the aerosol‐cloud conundrum: for example, overestimation of cloud radiative cooling by climate models compared to satellite observations; large uncertainty and discrepancy in estimates of the aerosol indirect effect; and the lack of interhemispheric difference in cloud albedo.
129009251
Possible impacts of anthropogenic and natural aerosols on Australian climate: a review
A review is presented of the aerosol-climate interaction with specific focus on the Australian region. The uncertainties associated with this interaction are much larger than those associated with greenhouse gases or other forcing agents, and are currently a major obstacle in climate-change research. However, new research suggests that aerosol effects are of comparable importance to greenhouse gases as a driver of recent climate trends in the Southern Hemisphere, including Australia. A significant new result from climate modelling is that anthropogenic aerosol over Asia affects meridional temperature gradients and atmospheric circulation, and may have caused an increase in rainfall over north-western Australia. Global ocean circulation provides another mechanism whereby aerosol changes in the Northern Hemisphere can affect climate in the Southern Hemisphere, suggesting an urgent need for further targeted studies using coupled ocean-atmosphere global climate models. To better model climate variability and climate change in the Australian region, more research is needed into the sources of aerosol and their precursors, their atmospheric distributions and transformations, and how to incorporate these processes robustly in global climate models (GCMs). The following priorities are suggested for further research in Australia linking aerosol observations and modelling: natural aerosol over the Southern Ocean, tropical biomass-burning aerosol in Indonesia and Australia, secondary organic aerosol (SOA) from volatile organic compounds (VOCs), wind-blown dust and modulation of rainfall by anthropogenic aerosol.
41207798
A New Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Boundary Dataset for the Community Atmosphere Model
A new surface boundary forcing dataset for uncoupled simulations with the Community Atmosphere Model is described. It is a merged product based on the monthly mean Hadley Centre sea ice and SST dataset version 1 (HadISST1) and version 2 of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) weekly optimum interpolation (OI) SST analysis. These two source datasets were also used to supply ocean surface information to the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40). The merged product provides monthly mean sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration data from 1870 to the present: it is updated monthly, and it is freely available for community use. The merging procedure was designed to take full advantage of the higher-resolution SST information inherent in the NOAA OI.v2 analysis.
49575070
Emission of trace gases and aerosols from biomass burning
A large body of information on emissions from the various types of biomass burning has been accumulated over the past decade, to a large extent as a result of International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme/International Global Atmospheric Chemistry research activities. Yet this information has not been readily accessible to the atmospheric chemistry community because it was scattered over a large number of publications and reported in numerous different units and reference systems. We have critically evaluated the presently available data and integrated these into a consistent format. On the basis of this analysis we present a set of emission factors for a large variety of species emitted from biomass fires. Where data were not available, we have proposed estimates based on appropriate extrapolation techniques. We have derived global estimates of pyrogenic emissions for important species emitted by the various types of biomass burning and compared our estimates with results from inverse modeling studies.
140543074
On overestimation of tropical precipitation by an atmospheric GCM with prescribed SST
We investigate how an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) can reproduce atmospheric aspects of climate, when the boundary conditions are prescribed. The AGCM is integrated with sea surface temperature (SST) specified from an integration of a coupled general circulation model (CGCM). A systematic difference in the mean climate is found between the AGCM and the CGCM in the tropical Pacific. This difference is apparent when and where local SST is warmest. In the CGCM, precipitation does not last long due to SST and cloud-radiation feedback. Precipitation in the AGCM, however, tends to persist longer. Results of this experiment imply that caution is needed when using an AGCM with boundary conditions derived from a CGCM for climate change studies.
96460430
Local Air–Sea Relationship in Observations and Model Simulations
Abstract The present study compares the local simultaneous correlation between rainfall–evaporation and sea surface temperature (SST)–SST tendency among observations, coupled general circulation model (CGCM) simulations, and stand-alone atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations. The purpose is to demonstrate to what extent the model simulations can reproduce the observed air–sea relationship. While the model-simulated correlation agrees with the observations in the tropical eastern Pacific, large discrepancies are found in the subtropics, midlatitudes, and tropical Indo-western Pacific Ocean regions. In tropical Indo-western Pacific Ocean regions and the midlatitudes where the atmosphere contributes to the observed SST changes, the specified SST simulations produce excessive SST forcing, whereas the CGCM captures the atmospheric feedback on the SST, but with somewhat of an overestimation. In the subtropics, both the AGCM and CGCM produce unrealistic positive rainfall–SST correlations. In th...
119819218
The Relationship between Tropical Warm Pool Precipitation, Sea Surface Temperature, and Large-Scale Vertical Motion in IPCC AR4 Models
AbstractA regime sorting analysis is used to identify Caribbean and western Pacific precipitation, sea surface temperature, and large-scale vertical circulation relationships and biases within coupled and uncoupled Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) general circulation models. This analysis shows that an oversensitivity of precipitation to both SST and vertical circulation (as represented by ω500) is inherent in the atmospheric models in both regions, with models using a spectral-type convective parameterization performing best in the Caribbean, but less separation between convective parameterization groups is seen in the western Pacific. The error in magnitude of precipitation for a given SST and vertical circulation causes uncoupled models to overestimate Caribbean and western Pacific mean precipitation. In coupled models, however, errors in the frequency of occurrence of SSTs (the distribution is cold biased in both regions) and deep convective vertical circul...
55517541
The Diurnal Cycle in the Tropics
A global archive of high-resolution (3-hourly, 0.58 latitude‐longitude grid) window (11‐12 mm) brightness temperature (Tb) data from multiple satellites is being developed by the European Union Cloud Archive User Service (CLAUS) project. It has been used to construct a climatology of the diurnal cycle in convection, cloudiness, and surface temperature for all regions of the Tropics. An example of the application of the climatology to the evaluation of the climate version of the U.K. Met. Office Unified Model (UM), version HadAM3, is presented. The characteristics of the diurnal cycle described by the CLAUS data agree with previous observational studies, demonstrating the universality of the characteristics of the diurnal cycle for land versus ocean, clear sky versus convective regimes. It is shown that oceanic deep convection tends to reach its maximum in the early morning. Continental convection generally peaks in the evening, although there are interesting regional variations, indicative of the effects of complex land‐sea and mountain‐valley breezes, as well as the life cycle of mesoscale convective systems. A striking result from the analysis of the CLAUS data has been the extent to which the strong diurnal signal over land is spread out over the adjacent oceans, probably through gravity waves of varying depths. These coherent signals can be seen for several hundred kilometers and in some instances, such as over the Bay of Bengal, can lead to substantial diurnal variations in convection and precipitation. The example of the use of the CLAUS data in the evaluation of the Met. Office UM has demonstrated that the model has considerable difficulty in capturing the observed phase of the diurnal cycle in convection, which suggests some fundamental difficulties in the model’s physical parameterizations. Analysis of the diurnal cycle represents a powerful tool for identifying and correcting model deficiencies.
14009483
Diurnal cycle of tropical precipitation in a general circulation model
[1] Hourly averaged precipitation rates from an ensemble of the Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3) simulations for the 44-month period from January 1998 through August 2001 are compared to observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. In order to have adequate sampling by the satellite, comparisons are made for 15° longitude × 10° latitude boxes and for larger geographical areas within the tropics. The temporally and spatially averaged hourly precipitation rates from CCM3 and from TRMM are fit to the diurnal harmonic by the method of linear least squares regression, and the phases and the amplitudes of the diurnal cycles are compared. The model's diurnal cycle is too strong over major land masses, particularly over South America (200% too large), and is too weak over many oceans, particularly the northwestern tropical Pacific (57% too small). The model-satellite phase differences tend to be more homogeneous. The peak in the model's diurnal harmonic consistently precedes that of the observations nearly everywhere. Phase differences are large over Australia, Papua New Guinea, and Saharan Africa, where CCM3 leads TRMM by 4 hours, 5 to 6 hours, and 9 to 11 hours, respectively. The model's phase and amplitude biases likely have effects on its hydrologic cycle and its surface and atmospheric energy budgets. Thus the causes for the model's biases need to be investigated.
16201075
The Version 2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979-Present)
Abstract The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Version-2 Monthly Precipitation Analysis is described. This globally complete, monthly analysis of surface precipitation at 2.5° latitude × 2.5° longitude resolution is available from January 1979 to the present. It is a merged analysis that incorporates precipitation estimates from low-orbit satellite microwave data, geosynchronous-orbit satellite infrared data, and surface rain gauge observations. The merging approach utilizes the higher accuracy of the low-orbit microwave observations to calibrate, or adjust, the more frequent geosynchronous infrared observations. The dataset is extended back into the premicrowave era (before mid-1987) by using infrared-only observations calibrated to the microwave-based analysis of the later years. The combined satellite-based product is adjusted by the rain gauge analysis. The dataset archive also contains the individual input fields, a combined satellite estimate, and error estimates for each field. This m...
129600681
Improving the global precipitation record: GPCP Version 2.1
[1] The GPCP has developed Version 2.1 of its long-term (1979–present) global Satellite-Gauge (SG) data sets to take advantage of the improved GPCC gauge analysis, which is one key input. As well, the OPI estimates used in the pre-SSM/I era have been rescaled to 20 years of the SSM/I-era SG. The monthly, pentad, and daily GPCP products have been entirely reprocessed, continuing to require that the submonthly estimates sum to the monthly. Version 2.1 is close to Version 2, with the global ocean, land, and total values about 0%, 6%, and 2% higher, respectively. The revised long-term global precipitation rate is 2.68 mm/d. The corresponding tropical (25°N-S) increases are 0%, 7%, and 3%. Long-term linear changes in the data tend to be smaller in Version 2.1, but the statistics are sensitive to the threshold for land/ocean separation and use of the pre-SSM/I part of the record.
43741969
Global Precipitation: A 17-Year Monthly Analysis Based on Gauge Observations, Satellite Estimates, and Numerical Model Outputs
Gridded fields (analyses) of global monthly precipitation have been constructed on a 2.5° latitude–longitude grid for the 17-yr period from 1979 to 1995 by merging several kinds of information sources with different characteristics, including gauge observations, estimates inferred from a variety of satellite observations, and the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis. This new dataset, which the authors have named the CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), contains precipitation distributions with full global coverage and improved quality compared to the individual data sources. Examinations showed no discontinuity during the 17-yr period, despite the different data sources used for the different subperiods. Comparisons of the CMAP with the merged analysis of Huffman et al. revealed remarkable agreements over the global land areas and over tropical and subtropical oceanic areas, with differences observed over extratropical oceanic areas. The 17-yr CMAP dataset is used to investigate the annual and interannual variab...
128857231
Sensitivity of multiangle imaging to the optical and microphysical properties of biomass burning aerosols
[1] The treatment of biomass burning (BB) carbonaceous particles in the Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) Standard Aerosol Retrieval Algorithm is assessed, and algorithm refinements are suggested, based on a theoretical sensitivity analysis and comparisons with near-coincident AERONET measurements at representative BB sites. Over the natural ranges of BB aerosol microphysical and optical properties observed in past field campaigns, patterns of retrieved Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), particle size, and single scattering albedo (SSA) are evaluated. On the basis of the theoretical analysis, assuming total column AOD of 0.2, over a dark, uniform surface, MISR can distinguish two to three groups in each of size and SSA, except when the assumed atmospheric particles are significantly absorbing (mid-visible SSA � 0.84), or of medium sizes (mean radius � 0.13 mm); sensitivity to absorbing, medium-large size particles increases considerably when the assumed column AOD is raised to 0.5. MISR Research Aerosol Retrievals confirm the theoretical results, based on coincident AERONET inversions under BB-dominated conditions. When BB is externally mixed with dust in the atmosphere, dust optical model and surface reflection uncertainties, along with spatial variability, contribute to differences between the Research Retrievals and AERONET. These results suggest specific refinements to the MISR Standard Aerosol Algorithm complement of component particles and mixtures. They also highlight the importance for satellite aerosol retrievals of surface reflectance characterization, with accuracies that can be difficult to achieve with coupled surface-aerosol algorithms in some higher AOD situations.
55688181
Multiangle imaging spectroradiometer (MISR) global aerosol optical depth validation based on 2 years of coincident Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) observations : Global aerosol system
[1] Performance of the Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) early postlaunch aerosol optical thickness (AOT) retrieval algorithm is assessed quantitatively over land and ocean by comparison with a 2-year measurement record of globally distributed AERONET Sun photometers. There are sufficient coincident observations to stratify the data set by season and expected aerosol type. In addition to reporting uncertainty envelopes, we identify trends and outliers, and investigate their likely causes, with the aim of refining algorithm performance. Overall, about 2/3 of the MISR-retrieved AOT values fall within [0.05 or 20% x AOT] of Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). More than a third are within [0.03 or 10% x AOT]. Correlation coefficients are highest for maritime stations (∼0.9), and lowest for dusty sites (more than ∼0.7). Retrieved spectral slopes closely match Sun photometer values for Biomass burning and continental aerosol types. Detailed comparisons suggest that adding to the algorithm climatology more absorbing spherical particles, more realistic dust analogs, and a richer selection of multimodal aerosol mixtures would reduce the remaining discrepancies for MISR retrievals over land; in addition, refining instrument low-light-level calibration could reduce or eliminate a small but systematic offset in maritime AOT values. On the basis of cases for which current particle models are representative, a second-generation MISR aerosol retrieval algorithm incorporating these improvements could provide AOT accuracy unprecedented for a spaceborne technique.
17968644
Laboratory investigation of photochemical oxidation of organic aerosol from wood fires 1: measurement and simulation of organic aerosol evolution
Abstract. Experiments were conducted to investigate the effects of photo-oxidation on organic aerosol (OA) emissions from flaming and smoldering hard- and soft-wood fires under plume-like conditions. This was done by exposing the dilute emissions from a small wood stove to UV light in a smog chamber and measuring the gas- and particle-phase pollutant concentrations with a suite of instruments including a Proton Transfer Reaction Mass Spectrometer (PTR-MS), an Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (AMS) and a thermodenuder. The measurements highlight how atmospheric processing can lead to considerable evolution of the mass and volatility of biomass-burning OA. Photochemical oxidation produced substantial new OA, increasing concentrations by a factor of 1.5 to 2.8 after several hours of exposure to typical summertime hydroxyl radical (OH) concentrations. Less than 20% of this new OA could be explained using a state-of-the-art secondary organic aerosol model and the measured decay of traditional SOA precursors. The thermodenuder data indicate that the primary OA is semivolatile; at 50°C between 50 and 80% of the fresh primary OA evaporated. Aging reduced the volatility of the OA; at 50°C only 20 to 40% of aged OA evaporated. The predictions of a volatility basis-set model that explicitly tracks the partitioning and aging of low-volatility organics was compared to the chamber data. The OA production can be explained by the oxidation of low-volatility organic vapors; the model can also reproduce observed changes in OA volatility and composition. The model was used to investigate the competition between photochemical processing and dilution on OA concentrations in plumes.
5086943
Methyl-nitrocatechols: atmospheric tracer compounds for biomass burning secondary organic aerosols.
Detailed chemical analysis of wintertime PM₁₀ collected at a rural village site in Germany showed the presence of a series of compounds that correlated very well with levoglucosan, a known biomass burning tracer compound. Nitrated aromatic compounds with molecular formula C₇H₇NO₄ (M(w) 169) correlated particularly well with levoglucosan, indicating that they originated from biomass burning as well. These compounds were identified as a series of methyl-nitrocatechol isomers (4-methyl-5-nitrocatechol, 3-methyl-5-nitrocatechol, and 3-methyl-6-nitrocatechol) based on the comparison of their chromatographic and mass spectrometric behaviors to those from reference compounds.Aerosol chamber experiments suggest that m-cresol, which is emitted from biomass burning at significant levels, is a precursor for the detected methyl-nitrocatechols. The total concentrations of these compounds in the wintertime PM₁₀were as high as 29 ng m⁻³, indicating the secondary organic aerosol (SOA) originating from the oxidation of biomass burning VOCs contributed non-negligible amounts to the regional organic aerosol loading.
55593835
Inverse modeling of biomass burning emissions using Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer aerosol index for 1997
[1] We present results from an inverse model study to determine biomass smoke emissions for the year 1997 by comparison of modeled aerosol index (AI) with that measured by the EP TOMS instrument. The IMPACT model with Data Assimilation Office (DAO) meteorology data in 1997 is utilized to obtain aerosol spatial and temporal distributions. Then a radiative transfer model is applied to generate the modeled AI. A Bayesian inverse technique is applied to optimize the difference between the modeled AI and the EP TOMS AI in the same period by regulating monthly a priori biomass smoke emissions in seven predefined regions. The modeled AI with a posteriori emissions is generally in better agreement with the EP TOMS AI. The a posteriori emissions from Indonesia increase by a factor of 8–10 over the a priori emissions due to the Indonesian fires in 1997. The annual total a posteriori source increases by about 13% for the year 1997 (6.31 Tg/yr black carbon and 67.27 Tg/yr smoke) in the base scenario, with a larger adjustment of monthly emissions. The sensitivity of this result to the a priori uncertainties, the height of the smoke layer, the cloud screening criteria, the inclusion of an adjustment of emissions outside the main biomass burning regions, and the inclusion of the covariances between observations in different locations is discussed in a set of sensitivity scenarios. The sensitivity scenarios suggest that the inverse model results are most sensitive to the assumed uncertainty for a priori emissions and the altitude of aerosol layer in the model and are less sensitive to other factors. In the scenario where the uncertainty of a priori emissions is increased to 100% (300% in Indonesia), the total annual black carbon emission is increased to 6.87 Tg/yr, and the smoke emission increases to 73.39 Tg/yr. The a posteriori emissions in Indonesia in the scenario with increased uncertainty are in better agreement with both the TOMS AI and with previous estimates for the Indonesian fires in 1997. In the scenario where biomass smoke from large fires are elevated by 1 km in altitude, the annual total black carbon emissions are 5.68 Tg/yr, and the smoke emissions are 60.44 Tg/yr, almost unchanged from the a priori emissions.
16296274
CERES Edition-2 Cloud Property Retrievals Using TRMM VIRS and Terra and Aqua MODIS Data—Part II: Examples of Average Results and Comparisons With Other Data
Cloud properties were retrieved by applying the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project Edition-2 algorithms to 3.5 years of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Visible and Infrared Scanner data and 5.5 and 8 years of MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data from Aqua and Terra, respectively. The cloud products are consistent quantitatively from all three imagers; the greatest discrepancies occur over ice-covered surfaces. The retrieved cloud cover (~59%) is divided equally between liquid and ice clouds. Global mean cloud effective heights, optical depth, effective particle sizes, and water paths are 2.5 km, 9.9, 12.9 μm , and 80 g·m-2, respectively, for liquid clouds and 8.3 km, 12.7, 52.2 μm, and 230 g·m-2 for ice clouds. Cloud droplet effective radius is greater over ocean than land and has a pronounced seasonal cycle over southern oceans. Comparisons with independent measurements from surface sites, the Ice Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite, and the Aqua Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System are used to evaluate the results. The mean CERES and MODIS Atmosphere Science Team cloud properties have many similarities but exhibit large discrepancies in certain parameters due to differences in the algorithms and the number of unretrieved cloud pixels. Problem areas in the CERES algorithms are identified and discussed.
123508600
Particle Growth and Drop Collection Efficiency of Warm Clouds as Inferred from Joint CloudSat and MODIS Observations
This study describes an approach for combining CloudSat and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite observations to investigate the microphysical processes of warm clouds on the global scale. MODIS column optical thickness is vertically distributed between the cloud top and cloud bottom according to adiabatic and condensational growth assumptions and used as a vertical coordinate system to analyze profiles of CloudSat-observed radar reflectivity. The reflectivityprofiles thus rescaled as a function of the in-cloud optical depth clearly depict how the cloud-to-rain particle growth processes take place within the cloud layer and how these processes vary systematically with variations in MODIS-derived effective particle radius. It is also found that the effective radii retrieved using two different wavelengths of MODIS tend totracethe microphysical change of reflectivity profiles in a different way because of the difference in the layer depth that characterizes these two effective radii. The reflectivity profiles as a function of optical depth are also interpreted in terms of drop collection processes based on the continuous collection model. The slope of the reflectivity change with optical depth provides a gross measure of the collection efficiency factor. The systematic changes of reflectivity profiles with MODIS-derived particlesizesaretheninterpretedasdemonstratingastrongdependencyofthecollectionefficiencyonparticlesize. Theseresultsprovideaquantitativeinsightintothedropcollectionprocessofwarmcloudsintherealatmosphere.
16500618
Influence of the 2006 Indonesian biomass burning aerosols on tropical dynamics studied with the GEOS-5 AGCM
[1] The direct and semidirect effects of aerosols produced by Indonesian biomass burning (BB) during August–November 2006 on tropical dynamics have been examined using NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5, (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). Simulations were driven by two sets of aerosol forcing fields calculated offline by a separate aerosol transport model, one that included Indonesian BB aerosol emissions and one that did not. In order to separate the influence of the aerosols from internal model variability, the means of two ten-member ensembles were compared. Diabatic heating from BB aerosols increased temperatures over Indonesia between 150 and 400 hPa. The higher temperatures resulted in strong increases in upward grid-scale vertical motion, which increased water vapor and CO over Indonesia. In October, the largest increases in water vapor were found in the midtroposphere (∼25%) while the largest increases in CO occurred just below the tropopause (80 ppbv or ∼50%). Diabatic heating from the Indonesian BB aerosols caused CO to increase by 9% throughout the tropical tropopause layer in November and 5% in the lower stratosphere in December. The results demonstrate that aerosol heating plays an important role in the transport of BB pollution and troposphere-to-stratosphere transport. Changes in vertical motion and cloudiness induced by aerosol heating can also alter the transport and phase of water vapor in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere.
98490374
Black carbon semi-direct effects on cloud cover: review and synthesis
Abstract. Absorbing aerosols (AAs) such as black carbon (BC) or dust absorb incoming solar radiation, perturb the temperature structure of the atmosphere, and influence cloud cover. Previous studies have described conditions under which AAs either increase or decrease cloud cover. The effect depends on several factors, including the altitude of the AA relative to the cloud and the cloud type. We attempt to categorize the effects into several likely regimes. Cloud cover is decreased if the AAs are embedded in the cloud layer. AAs below cloud may enhance convection and cloud cover. AAs above cloud top stabilize the underlying layer and tend to enhance stratocumulus clouds but may reduce cumulus clouds. AAs can also promote cloud cover in convergent regions as they enhance deep convection and low level convergence as it draws in moisture from ocean to land regions. Most global model studies indicate a regional variation in the cloud response but generally increased cloud cover over oceans and some land regions, with net increased low-level and/or reduced upper level cloud cover. The result is a net negative semi-direct effect feedback from the cloud response to AAs. In some of these climate model studies, the cooling effect of BC due to cloud changes is strong enough to essentially cancel the warming direct effects.
33571529
Chemical and dynamical effects on cloud droplet number: Implications for estimates of the aerosol indirect effect: CHEMISTRY, DYNAMICS, AND DROPLET NUMBER
[1] Most aerosol-cloud-climate assessment studies use empirical aerosol number/droplet number relationships, which are subject to large variability. Historically, this variability has been attributed to unresolved variations in updraft velocity. We revisit this postulation and assess the effects of both updraft velocity and chemical composition on this variability. In doing so we utilize an inverse modeling approach. Using a detailed numerical cloud parcel model and published aerosol characteristics, with published correlations of cloud droplet versus sulfate and cloud droplet versus aerosol number as constraints, we determine a most probable size distribution and updraft velocity for polluted and clean conditions of cloud formation. A sensitivity analysis is then performed to study the variation in cloud droplet number with changes in aerosol chemistry and updraft velocities. This addresses the need to estimate the importance of chemical effects on spatial scales relevant for global climate models. Our analysis suggests that the effect of organic surfactants can introduce as much variability in cloud droplet number as the effect of expected variations in updraft velocity. In addition, the presence of organics seems to further enhance the sensitivity of droplet concentration to vertical velocity variability. The variability from organic surfactants is seen to be insensitive to variations in aerosol number concentration, implying that such effects can affect cloud droplet number consistently over large spatial scales. Our findings suggest that organics can be as important to the aerosol indirect effect as the effect of unresolved cloud dynamics, and they illustrate the potential and complex role of chemical effects on aerosol-cloud interactions.
128494583
Fire parameterization on a global scale
[1] We present a convenient physically based global-scale fire parameterization algorithm for global climate models. We indicate environmental conditions favorable for fire occurrence based on calculation of the vapor pressure deficit as a function of location and time. Two ignition models are used. One assumes ubiquitous ignition, the other incorporates natural and anthropogenic sources, as well as anthropogenic fire suppression. Evaluation of the method using Global Precipitation Climatology Project precipitation, National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research temperature and relative humidity, and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Leaf Area Index as a proxy for global vegetation density gives results in remarkable correspondence with global fire patterns observed from the MODIS and Visible and Infrared Scanner satellite instruments. The parameterized fires successfully reproduce the spatial distribution of global fires as well as the seasonal variability. The interannual variability of global fire activity derived from the 20-year advanced very high resolution radiometer record are well reproduced using Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation models climate simulations, as is the response to the climate changes following the eruptions of El Chichon and Mount Pinatubo. In conjunction with climate models and data sets on vegetation changes with time, the suggested fire parameterization offers the possibility to estimate relative variations of global fire activity for past and future climates.
16486337
Fire dynamics during the 20th century simulated by the Community Land Model
Fire is an integral Earth System process that interacts with climate in multiple ways. Here we assessed the parametrization of fires in the Community Land Model (CLM-CN) and improved the ability of the model to reproduce contemporary global patterns of burned areas and fire emissions. In addition to wildfires we extended CLMCN to account for fires related to deforestation. We compared contemporary fire carbon emissions predicted by the model to satellite-based estimates in terms of magnitude and spatial extent as well as interannual and seasonal variability. Long-term trends during the 20th century were compared with historical estimates. Overall we found the best agreement between simulation and observations for the fire parametrization based on the work by Arora and Boer(2005). We obtained substantial improvement when we explicitly considered human caused ignition and fire suppression as a function of population density. Simulated fire carbon emissions ranged between 2.0 and 2.4 Pg C/year for the period 1997–2004. Regionally the simulations had a low bias over Africa and a high bias over South America when compared to satellite-based products. The net terrestrial carbon source due to land use change for the 1990s was 1.2 Pg C/year with 11% stemming from deforestation fires. During 2000–2004 this flux decreased to 0.85 Pg C/year with a similar relative contribution from deforestation fires. Between 1900 and 1960 we predicted a slight downward trend in global Correspondence to: S. Kloster (silvia.kloster@zmaw.de) fire emissions caused by reduced fuels as a consequence of wood harvesting and also by increases in fire suppression. The model predicted an upward trend during the last three decades of the 20th century as a result of climate variations and large burning events associated with ENSOinduced drought conditions.